$Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2304(MCLmain)$ Considering how strong energy prices ended the previous week, this was just a horrible week. Red across the board.WTI needs to hold the $74 area or there is a high chance it goes below $70. A lot will depend on tmr's NFP numbers and how the market reacts, but as of now, futures look bad.Most food and energy-related commodities are down significantly y/y.Commodity price changes over the last year...Sugar: +11%US CPI: +6.4%Gold: -8%Soybeans: -10%Copper: -13%Gasoline: -17%Corn: -19%Heating Oil: -19%Coffee: -22%Silver: -23%Brent Crude: -25%Zinc: -26%WTI Crude: -29%Cotton: -30%Wheat: -36%Natural Gas: -45%Lumber: -61%Grains and Livestock futures have been mostly tanking YTD.https://twitter.com/Gugo907/stat

1.North American Natural Gas Storage Levels for the week ending Nov 4/2022.US Natural Gas Storage (bcf) is now only 2% lower than 5yr avg. At one point this year US storage was 18% lower than 5yr average.Canada Natural Gas Storage (bcf) is 10% lower than 5yr avg.Compare to the week ending October 21/2022:US Natural Gas Storage (bcf) is 5% lower than 5yr avg.Canada Natural Gas Storage (bcf) is 12% lower than 5yr avg.TD on KEL$Kelt Exploration Ltd.(KELTF)$ . TP lowered from $9 to $8.5TBH I am not a fan of KEL, and according to TD they are barely breakeven at $80 WTI and $4HH.3.Yesterday's file wasn't good so here is a snapshot. I am using $85 WTI since that's where 2023 strip trades at (more or less).4.Wine over gold for me!Reasons w

COIN,HOOD,TWLO and 35 other companies which SiliconValleyBank$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ invested inThe entire list: $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ $PLAID INC.(PLDIF)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Twilio(TWLO)$ $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ $Zoom(ZM)$ $Airb

Updated YTD S&P 500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ sector returns. Just a brutal week, no two ways about it. S&P is back to being flat on the year. Energy is down big.$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SP

Historically, October, November, and December are still pretty strong months for total product demand. See the breakdowns of each category below:October is the last month for relatively strong motor gasoline demand. Historically, the next 6 months after October see on average 350k bbls/d of lower gasoline demand.Distillates, on the other hand, have entered the strongest demand season, where historically over the next 6 months the average demand is ~ 200k bbls/d higher than compared to Spring and Summer.After the high summer travel season, the demand for jet fuel will slow. However, historically the next 3 months still demonstrated a relatively strong demand.Lastly, as history shows the next 4/6 months will have the highest demand for other oils (including propane).Actual physical cuts requ

1.Dow$DJIA(DJIA)$ has been ripping for a few weeks now. Meanwhile, everything else has been performing worse.2.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ There is no such thing as the stock market, there are always sectors and stocks which are undervalued and overvalue. Guess what I am selling and buying at the moment :)3.$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ What are the chances JP nukes VIX on Wednesday?https://twitter.com/Gugo907/status/1596168747751874561

1.The S&P 500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 5.5% today, its largest % increase since April 2020 and 15th largest since 1950. One year later the market has often been higher following these large daily spikes (22 out of 24 times) with an average return of +31%. The 2 exceptions: Sep 2008 & Jan 2001. The only US index that looks very bullish is Dow, but then again Dow is price-weighted with 30 stocks. SPX is what really matters and it is still a downtrend. It should break 4100 first then we can talk! Good day though :)Even with today's major rally, S&P 500 is down ~17.5% (~27.5% was the YTD low) and Nasdaq$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is down ~29.5% (~37.8% was the YTD low) YTD.Everyone has a theory o

These RBC price assumptions for 2022 are insane. For WTI$W&T Offshore(WTI)$ to average over $107 for the year, it has to average around ~ $125 for the remainder of this year. I don't think that's happening.CNQ$Canadian Natural Resources(CNQ)$ and $Suncor(SU)$ offer special divdend this year.And this is the money each company saves on dividends (annually) so far by buying back their shares. $Suncor(SU)$,$Cenovus(CVE)$,$Imperial

1.It's not just energy that is getting baptized, look at tech shitcos. Brutal day, just in general!$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ $Match(MTCH)$ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ $Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$

I think we all agree that energy earnings in general are a non-event. No matter how outstanding the results are:1-most already know it2-if WTI drops 2%, they gonna sell-offBrent-WTI$W&T Offshore Inc(WTI)$ spread keeps widening and trades at ~$9/bbl. Again, good for U.S. exports.To me out of all energy releases so far,CVE$Cenovus(CVE)$ was the most disappointing.CVE Cash flow estimatesTD agrees with me on CVE-CAPEX up twice now-FFO was a big miss-Shit tons of share issuanceI really don’t get the hate for WCP$Whitecap Resources, Inc.(SPGYF)$ .Updated WCP model with TP ~$21Cash flow comparison between&nbs

1.Some Mega Cap Valuations based on 2023 projections.$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Visa(V)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $T-Mobile US(TMUS)$

1.S&P 500 Sector returns. Energy is still the big winner YTD, with Utilities being the only other sector in positive territory.-On a 3yr cumulative basis, Tech is still the leader, now with energy in 2nd place.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ 2.No more diesel shortage ladies and gentlemen!!!  We are entering the high demand season for distillates*Diesel Futures Extend Fall, Down 4.6% at $3.2228 as US Aug. Industrial Production Contracts*Diesel Futures Are Down 11% Over Past Three

1.Quarterly energy prices since 2014.2.LNG direct play is Cheniere. Indirect own nat gas stocks. $Vermilion(VET)$ vet.to 45% fcf mispriced, 2nd largest owner, tactical trade, **watch video he explained the euro gas situation $HEADWATER EXPL INC.(CDDRF)$ hwx.to largest owner, owns 9.9% of company $11 $Pipestone Energy Corp.(BKBEF)$pipe.to 33%fcf, 100% up, neutrall on it 3.Again the $75.5 area (blue rising support) needs to hold or we most likely go below $70.4.$Tennessee Valley Authority(TVE)$ TVE CF projections. YE 2023 FCY at $85 WTI & $5 CAD AECO ~25%EV/DACF 3.3xEV/FCF 6.5x12m TP ~$6 CAD, discount rate used 15%By 2

33 weeks into the year:-Commercial crude oil inventories are up ~3.8m bbls-SPR inventories are down ~ 140.7m bbls-Gasoline inventories are down ~17.1m bbls-Distillates are down ~13.7m bbls-Jet Fuel inventories are up ~4.7m bbls-Propane is up ~2.3m bbls1.Considering the all-time high SPR draw, lower refinery throughput, and ~3.3m commercial crude draw is bullish, though exports were still high and imports were quite low.2.-Propane flat (Bullish)-Distillates drew (Very bullish)-Gasoline flat (Bearish)-Jet Fuel drew (Neutral)3.Another horrendous gasoline demand report. EIA$Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II(EIA)$ has been all over the place with these reports for the last few months. Anyways total product demand also dipp

$Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2301(MCLmain)$ So let me get this straight.-China is re-opening -Russian Embargo just kicked in-SPR is ending -Inventories are drawing -Demand is holding pretty wellBut somehow oil gets absolutely baptized? That’s quite troublesome, no?It’s always the same with oil - investment banks just orchestrate a $3/$4 rug pull each and every day to wipe everyone out - it’s completely un-investable where fundamentals whether inventory levels, China reopening, opec cuts or SPR sales ending matter anymoreGetting hammered everyday with the pending recession and it’s all but assumed that the demand for oil has completely collapsed. Whether this is true or not doesn’t matter, it’s emotionally driven and this sector is so incredibl

I think today’s EIA needs a strong product draw to cancel out almost certain crude oil build. If we build across the board, WTI $Light Crude Oil - main 2208(CLmain)$ will drop below $90.WTI is now down over 26% from it’s most recent high, it’s down for the 3rd straight month and 7 out of the last 9 weeks. Fun timesGasoline demand continues to stay very weak.Refinery throughput dropped yet again and was the lowest since May 6/22. And yet, we had a slight build in gasoline stocks. Demand is bad, there are no 2 ways about it.Canadian Energy stock returns since Q2 earnings announcements. The average return after the best quarter ever (for most companies) is about 1.2%.Energy earnings are a non-event.The worst thing about