Can we all be wrong?Image from CanvaIt wouldn't shock anyone if we slipped into a recession in 2023 — that's the widely held expectation of what will happen. Everyone from economists to CEOs to your neighbor who works in geology is calling for one.But sometimes, when the majority expects one thing, the opposite happens. The economy has a history of surprising people, so why not again now?What Economists are ExpectingThe Wall Street Journal conducts a quarterly survey to help readers better understand the direction of the U.S. economy. They have conducted their Economic Forecasting Survey for over 35 years, using a panel of academic, business, and financial economists.Their latest poll was in October. The data for that poll, and each one dating back to 2003, can be foundhere.Looking through

Keep it simplePhoto bySebastian SvensononUnsplashInvesting favors those that are in it for the long run. But that doesn't mean you can't gain an edge by watching charts.I use charts to help my investing decisions, even though I invest for the long term and don't short-term trade.Unfortunately, looking at charts can get overly complicated real quick. That's why I kept it simple. I've found looking only at two charts with very few indicators can help capture good entry points.S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$Most of what I invest in these days is the S&P 500. (via SPY)Therefore, the most important chart for me to look at is the S&P 500.Below is a chart of SPX.Image from TradingView on 1.18.2023The black horizontal line is

A year dictated by the Federal ReserveImage from CanvaIt's that time of year again; time to look back on 2022 and reflect, to help us be better prepared for the future.2022 was a terrible year for the market. It wasn't as up and down as 2020, and not at all positive like2021.Unfortunately, 2022 can be defined by two topics: inflation and interest rates.Jerome Powell deserves 2022's award for biggest market influencer of the year.Dustin Moskovitz, CEO of Asana, had a quote that perfectly sums up 2022,I’m CEO of the Asana company, but lately, Jay Powell has been CEO of the stock priceReturns for the YearAfter a nearly 27% gain in 2021, the S&P 500 had a negative year, losing almost 20%.The tech-heavy NASDAQ fared worse, while the Dow Jones was the best of the three.Image from author

The data and story backing up this claimStocks have been negative for all of 2022. They've been beaten down, dragged through the mud, and made many of us investors look silly.But with one month left in the year, things are changing. Stocks have rebounded, and the data shows now is a good time to invest.The StoryWe saw in 2020 — 2021 that risk was being mispriced. Investors were putting money into speculative investments without much concern for how risky they were due to the easy money policies at the time.In 2021, risk was being mispriced as too cheap. Now, risk is being mispriced as too expensive.At the bottom of a market, safety becomes overvalued and risk becomes undervalued. This is where we were a month ago and starting to crawl out of.The story and psychological aspects are importan

A matter of when, not ifImage from CanvaWithout any facts to back me up, I’d argue the average person’s attention span has decreased in the past decade. A few months ago, markets were in free fall and an impending recession seemed imminent. Now, after a slight rebound, not so much.But a recession is still on the horizon (if not here already). Some indicators still show the economy is solid, but these are likely to deteriorate in the coming months.The market rebound has been nice, but I would not count out another decline. And for the economy itself, it seems more likely to run into problems than prosper in the short term.Recession FearJust like the fear of a recession hit the public in late March — April 2020, people were captured by fear in June of this year. In June, markets bottomed and

Timing a downturn is harder than timing the marketImage from CanvaIn 2022, almost every economist predicted a recession would occur by early 2023 (myself included.)Well, Q1 2023 just wrapped up, and the economy is still humming along.It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.So why have we yet to have a recession, and should we still expect to have one?How the Economy Is DoingIt's a mix.The latest inflation reading had CPI at 6%, after it was above 8% from March — September of 2022The unemployment rate has been below 4% for a year; and is currently at 3.6%The yield curve has been inverted for about a yearNatural gas and oil are around their regular prices after spiking last yearFor the average person, things are humming along alright.While there have been layoff

Oil is still liquid gold 150 years laterImage from CanvaStocks in 2022 performedthe opposite of how they had in 2020 and 2021.After two years of solid performance, the technology sector got hit hard in 2022.On the other hand, energy stocks that suffered in 2020 due to the decreased demands from lockdowns excelled in 2022 as a result of supply impacts.While the overall market was down in 2022, energy stocks were positive; the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 last year were all energy-related.Data fromBankrateWhy Energy Performed WellTo understand why energy performed so well in 2022, we need to look at what happened in 2020 — 2022.In early 2020, the pandemic hit the world, driving down the demand for energy. People required less energy — this includes natural gas and coal, as

Thanks to the selfless acts of the Philadelphia PhilliesIn September, before the MLB playoffs began, Morning Brew tweeted a timely statistic.The Phillies had clinched a playoff berth, and the stock market was crashing. This tweet seemed to be the writing on the wall that the Phillies would win the World Series and we were about to enter a financial crisis.On Saturday, the Phillies lost the World Series to the Astros. Thus, there won't be a financial crisis; everything will be alright!Unfortunately, correlation does not imply causation (tip of the cap to my econometrics professor for that one.)So even though the Phillies lost, we will likely still see a recession.Tech LayoffsI debated writing an entire article on the current mass layoffs in the technology sector. I might still do so; in tha

Trying to predict the unpredictableImage from CanvaPrediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future- Niels BohrAttempting to forecast what will happen in the market in 2023 or where the market will be at the end of 2023 is an impossible venture. But a fun and helpful one to undertake.Instead of only forecasting the price at the end of 2023, I will emulate the processFundriseCEO Ben Miller (I highly recommend his podcast "Onward") uses — forecast planning. He considers three scenarios,Scenario 1: Optimistic / more of the sameScenario 2: PessimisticScenario 3: A surpriseI will create these scenarios for several attributes of the economy that impact the market and then attempt to bring it all together for a final forecast.For a more traditional market prediction, check out th

5% risk-free yields from the Treasury are calling our namesImage from CanvaThe only sensible investment for years was in the stock market, as stocks have provided a tremendous annual return since the financial crisis.It became such an accepted thought that the phrase "There Is No Alternative (TINA)" was coined.The other historically popular investment option, bonds, offered terrible returns. Yields were near zero and usually lower than inflation. In some countries, they were even negative.But that has all been changing.Why the Investing Landscape is ChangingGoldman Sachs Group Inc. has dubbed the shift “TARA,” short for “there are reasonable alternatives,” while Deutsche Bank AG has endorsed “TAPAS,” meaning “there are plenty of alternatives,” and Insight Investment has come up with “TIARA