Unless you've been living under a rock, not using the internet, or haven't checked your portfolio in a while, the stock market is doing extraordinarily well, especially since we all expected to be in a recession by now.And Big Tech (yes, tech!) has been the driver of this success, even in this high-interest-rate environment.But even outperforming most of the Big Tech names are semiconductor stocks, with the best performer being the biggest name in the industry — Nvidia. The second most prominent name, AMD, isn't having too shabby of a year either.With these two stocks up 190% and 70% YTD, what will the future hold for both of them?Industry-Wide GrowthIf you think back to the first year of the pandemic (which seems ages ago), there was a shortage of semiconductors.Supply chain issues l

I didn't like the intro I had for this article, so I asked ChatGPT to make it more exciting. The output has nothing to do with what I discuss, but I was entertained enough to include it below. So enjoy.Within the sacred chambers of the Federal Reserve, a pivotal gathering took place on June 14th, where the nation’s economic destiny hung in the balance. The esteemed members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened to dissect the current state and trajectory of the United States economy, as well as deliberate on the crucial policy actions to be taken. However, a haunting message from Chairman Jerome Powell has sent shockwaves through the financial world, casting a shadow of concern over the horizon. As the echoes of his words reverberate, a sense of unease lingers in the air, rem

This economy is frustrating.A year ago, I spoke of several economic indicators at levels that historically precede recessions. A year later, we still aren't in a recession. Maybe I’m just impatient or too young to look at the longer-term picture.In 2022, most economists were predicting a recession by the middle of 2023 — that didn’t happen. Now some are expecting a small downturn at the end of 2023 or none at all.As we enter summer 2023, it's worth looking back at these indicators and what’s to come.Flashing IndicatorsOne of the most common recession warning indicators is inversion of the yield curve, this typically precedes a recession in the near future.The yield curve is the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield. When the 10-year Treasury yield goes bel

After a dismal 2022, the stock market has had a good 2023. The S&P is up 12% for the year and 20% since the market bottomed in October.Several factors have led to a great start in 2023, but trouble is on the horizon. Looking at only a few key charts, the market is over-extended.A pull-back is due, albeit probably a small one but one that can be opportune.SPYBelow is a chart of $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ from November 2021 to the present.$SPX | TradingViewSince the market bottomed out in October, it has been in an uptrend. This is showcased by the black arrows with higher highs and higher lows, a telltale sign of an uptrend.But with the SPX closing at $4,282 on Friday (June 2), it’s approaching a major hurdle. The high in August was aroun

Timing a downturn is harder than timing the marketImage from CanvaIn 2022, almost every economist predicted a recession would occur by early 2023 (myself included.)Well, Q1 2023 just wrapped up, and the economy is still humming along.It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.So why have we yet to have a recession, and should we still expect to have one?How the Economy Is DoingIt's a mix.The latest inflation reading had CPI at 6%, after it was above 8% from March — September of 2022The unemployment rate has been below 4% for a year; and is currently at 3.6%The yield curve has been inverted for about a yearNatural gas and oil are around their regular prices after spiking last yearFor the average person, things are humming along alright.While there have been layoff

5% risk-free yields from the Treasury are calling our namesImage from CanvaThe only sensible investment for years was in the stock market, as stocks have provided a tremendous annual return since the financial crisis.It became such an accepted thought that the phrase "There Is No Alternative (TINA)" was coined.The other historically popular investment option, bonds, offered terrible returns. Yields were near zero and usually lower than inflation. In some countries, they were even negative.But that has all been changing.Why the Investing Landscape is ChangingGoldman Sachs Group Inc. has dubbed the shift “TARA,” short for “there are reasonable alternatives,” while Deutsche Bank AG has endorsed “TAPAS,” meaning “there are plenty of alternatives,” and Insight Investment has come up with “TIARA

Keep it simplePhoto bySebastian SvensononUnsplashInvesting favors those that are in it for the long run. But that doesn't mean you can't gain an edge by watching charts.I use charts to help my investing decisions, even though I invest for the long term and don't short-term trade.Unfortunately, looking at charts can get overly complicated real quick. That's why I kept it simple. I've found looking only at two charts with very few indicators can help capture good entry points.S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$Most of what I invest in these days is the S&P 500. (via SPY)Therefore, the most important chart for me to look at is the S&P 500.Below is a chart of SPX.Image from TradingView on 1.18.2023The black horizontal line is

Oil is still liquid gold 150 years laterImage from CanvaStocks in 2022 performedthe opposite of how they had in 2020 and 2021.After two years of solid performance, the technology sector got hit hard in 2022.On the other hand, energy stocks that suffered in 2020 due to the decreased demands from lockdowns excelled in 2022 as a result of supply impacts.While the overall market was down in 2022, energy stocks were positive; the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 last year were all energy-related.Data fromBankrateWhy Energy Performed WellTo understand why energy performed so well in 2022, we need to look at what happened in 2020 — 2022.In early 2020, the pandemic hit the world, driving down the demand for energy. People required less energy — this includes natural gas and coal, as

Trying to predict the unpredictableImage from CanvaPrediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future- Niels BohrAttempting to forecast what will happen in the market in 2023 or where the market will be at the end of 2023 is an impossible venture. But a fun and helpful one to undertake.Instead of only forecasting the price at the end of 2023, I will emulate the processFundriseCEO Ben Miller (I highly recommend his podcast "Onward") uses — forecast planning. He considers three scenarios,Scenario 1: Optimistic / more of the sameScenario 2: PessimisticScenario 3: A surpriseI will create these scenarios for several attributes of the economy that impact the market and then attempt to bring it all together for a final forecast.For a more traditional market prediction, check out th

A year dictated by the Federal ReserveImage from CanvaIt's that time of year again; time to look back on 2022 and reflect, to help us be better prepared for the future.2022 was a terrible year for the market. It wasn't as up and down as 2020, and not at all positive like2021.Unfortunately, 2022 can be defined by two topics: inflation and interest rates.Jerome Powell deserves 2022's award for biggest market influencer of the year.Dustin Moskovitz, CEO of Asana, had a quote that perfectly sums up 2022,I’m CEO of the Asana company, but lately, Jay Powell has been CEO of the stock priceReturns for the YearAfter a nearly 27% gain in 2021, the S&P 500 had a negative year, losing almost 20%.The tech-heavy NASDAQ fared worse, while the Dow Jones was the best of the three.Image from author

Can we all be wrong?Image from CanvaIt wouldn't shock anyone if we slipped into a recession in 2023 — that's the widely held expectation of what will happen. Everyone from economists to CEOs to your neighbor who works in geology is calling for one.But sometimes, when the majority expects one thing, the opposite happens. The economy has a history of surprising people, so why not again now?What Economists are ExpectingThe Wall Street Journal conducts a quarterly survey to help readers better understand the direction of the U.S. economy. They have conducted their Economic Forecasting Survey for over 35 years, using a panel of academic, business, and financial economists.Their latest poll was in October. The data for that poll, and each one dating back to 2003, can be foundhere.Looking through

The data and story backing up this claimStocks have been negative for all of 2022. They've been beaten down, dragged through the mud, and made many of us investors look silly.But with one month left in the year, things are changing. Stocks have rebounded, and the data shows now is a good time to invest.The StoryWe saw in 2020 — 2021 that risk was being mispriced. Investors were putting money into speculative investments without much concern for how risky they were due to the easy money policies at the time.In 2021, risk was being mispriced as too cheap. Now, risk is being mispriced as too expensive.At the bottom of a market, safety becomes overvalued and risk becomes undervalued. This is where we were a month ago and starting to crawl out of.The story and psychological aspects are importan

Thanks to the selfless acts of the Philadelphia PhilliesIn September, before the MLB playoffs began, Morning Brew tweeted a timely statistic.The Phillies had clinched a playoff berth, and the stock market was crashing. This tweet seemed to be the writing on the wall that the Phillies would win the World Series and we were about to enter a financial crisis.On Saturday, the Phillies lost the World Series to the Astros. Thus, there won't be a financial crisis; everything will be alright!Unfortunately, correlation does not imply causation (tip of the cap to my econometrics professor for that one.)So even though the Phillies lost, we will likely still see a recession.Tech LayoffsI debated writing an entire article on the current mass layoffs in the technology sector. I might still do so; in tha