the chart shows $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in pnf with $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$  blue line and$US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ orange line. spx bounced off low of 3491.58 because of previous peaks at 3525 region serving as support. this support will be tested again and again to see if it breaks or holds. if it holds, a new rally will begin but what's there to rally about? Santa is coming to town? most likely to cover gaps at 4218.7, 4083.67, and 3739.22 before retreating down to make new lows or rally when fed starts to cut rate in 2024.  if the support at 3525 breaks then the next support is 3375 and 3300 range. that will be anothe

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ made 9 consecutive weekly gains, usually 5 is the norm. when gains exceed 5 consecutive gains, the pullback will usually be very sharp. hence, looking at the pnf chart, a pullback to 14,500 is possible. this is coupled with market being disappointed with fed official's estimated rate cuts in end of 2024 rather than mar 2024. it is expected that us economy will fall into recession in the first half of 2024. $Apple(AAPL)$  fell with great downward momentum. we might be looking at 173.  $Microsoft(MSFT)$  might be revisiting325. tech stocks are very sensitive to interest rates. sinc

$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$   will rise when the Chinese government introduce 2 new economic policies to support non-state-owned businesses. this is the time to accumulate when the price dips.  looking at the candlestick chart, you can observe that higher highs and higher lows are formed. according to dow theory, this is an uptrend. i would accumulate if it drops below 0.666 institutional investors are forward looking, so they would have positioned their funds 6 months before the bubble forms. they would most likely have cut their position when the Chinese economic numbers were bad. but they would most probably have accumulated at the bottom and took profit when the Chinese market rallied. if you examine the pnf chart, it is read

$Sea Ltd(SE)$  price is under the sea after rapid interest rate hikes and $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$   reduced its holdings in Jan this year. se has made radical changes to bail water out of its sinking ship, even to the extent of not getting paid until the ship is above water.  in my opinion, there are much better stocks available if you haven't invest in se yet. companies that are profitable and much more well known globally and well diversified.  if you are already vested, let's take a look at the pnf chart. it has bounced off a support at 40 region. and has reached its resistance zone at 65 region. with fed hawks hovering around the stock marke

$USD/SGD(USDSGD.FOREX)$   tanked on hopes of fed pivot and monetary authorities of other countries adjusting to balance the strength of usd. i seized the opportunity by exchanging sgd back to usd having previously exchanged usd back to sgd at the peak. this is roughly about 6% difference.  fed hawks just came out to egg the $US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$  up, and fed will continue to hike rates as median cpi is a straight line up although cpi may have subsided.  A. tiger vault suits my needs better as i prefer liquidity during this volatile period. i can do some currency trading. it is also a good time to increase us stock holdings as the market pullback from the recent rally

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  looks like going to open higher judging by the overnight trading activity. $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$   retreated below 5%. 5% is likely the threshold set by algo trading to start selling. hence whenever us10y approaches 5% the market starts selling off.  $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$   is the leading indicator of spy. they tend to trend in the same direction. however, spy may lag ukx by a few weeks. ukx has hit the support zone and is making a move higher. spy has also hit the support zone, but it still has a gap to close around 394. with so many headwinds (war escalation, inflation, us government shut

$US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ is very sensitive to fed interest rate and is forward looking. it is pricing in the possibility of 4.5% and is still pushing higher.  $Apple(AAPL)$ and gang are very sensitive to fed rate hikes, once rates are above 0.5% the stocks have retreated from their peaks.  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trend can be forecasted by ftse100. traditionally, ftse100 is a leading indicator of spx. gbpusd is the leading indicator of ftse100. below shows the charts of ftse100 compared to gbpusd and spx compared to ftse100.  for ftse100 to rally, gbpusd has to break the downward trend. for that to happ

The 1-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3.45%. Meanwhile, the 5-year rate, a reference for property mortgages, was retained at 3.95% following a record reduction of 25bps in February. Both rates are at record lows, indicating that Beijing is continuing its attempt to spur an economic recovery following weak activity data in March due to headwinds from the property sector, lingering deflation risks, and fragile trade performance.  The loan prime rate is a reference interest rate used by banks in China to price new loans to their prime customers. It is set by a group of banks under the guidance of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The loan prime rate is typically adjusted periodically based on market conditions and monet

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  tanked as pivot guys run road. the fed officials expressed that rate cuts probably by end of 2024 instead of the anticipated cuts in mar. tech companies are very sensitive to interest rates. if interest rates are to remain high for longer, this will strain profit margins.  let's take a look at the pnf chart, it has room to fall till 215. if you observe the candlestick chart, there is a gap at 225 to close.  let's also take a look at the candlestick chart of $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$ , it rallied upon remarks of fed officials that interest rates will remain high until year end.  do apply automatic investment system where you add shar

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  it behaves like a meme stock and it was a meme stock having appeared on wallstreetbets several times.   every time it would rally close to earnings and then crash. you can look at the candlestick chart and take note of the earnings marking.  it might float up together with santa rally when the whole market gets lifted. maximum around 4. it is bounded by the high interest rate environment. unless fed pause or cut interest rate, it would be in consolidation range between 2 and 4. buy at around 2+ and sell when it reaches around 4. if it breaks out of 4 convincingly then hold on for massive rally.  fed comes out to hawk the market again. so obedient mr market will hide its

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  is under pressure from high oil prices above 80; fomc meeting on 19-20sep; china key loan prime rate. spy retreated after my previous post. likely headed for 398.  $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$   is a leading indicator of spx. it has made a u turn up to resistance zone instead of breaking down support zone. spx may not follow suit immediately, it may follow a few weeks later as shown in my previous post.  $WTI Crude Oil - main 2310(CLmain)$  hovers above 80. this is the pain point level of markets. when it stays above 80, stock prices are pressured to retreat as it implies higher inflation and that translate

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  made a 5th green candlestick on Friday, will it continue to make a 6th green candlestick tonight? spy is on an uptrend looking at pnf chart, but it doesn't go in a straightline up, so it is bound to retrace before raising again. spy likely to reach 445 in a few weeks time.  $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$   is the leading indicator of spy. spy may lag ukx by a few weeks before it flows ukx's trend. $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$   retraced causing asian markets to rally.  do apply automatic investment system where you add shares at each 10% drop or at support zones if you know technical analysis. this

the banking crisis forced the fed to expand its balance sheet instead of shrinking it, undoing 2/3 of its work of shrinking the balance sheet for the past year. this flooded the market with liquidity and gave the stocks a boost. effect of quantitative easing or simply increase money supply. increase in money supply causes devaluation of currency resulting in inflation. this means that interest rate will have to increase further in order to curb inflation. the fed should have just reduced the money supply first instead of increasing interest rate and reducing money supply at the same time. the fed already tried this in 2008 and failed. this time they failed again... $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$   is historically the leader of 

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  rebounded from a lower support at 172 region after breaking down the critical support at 200 region. i read a report that said tesla bought shares that elon sold.  elon sold shares and made my tiger cry while eating noodles on tue and drunk on wed. naughty naughty... luckily only paper money yesterday thu, tiger recovered a bit but still giddy. i guess cathie wood must feel the same way too after being such an ardent fan to have tsla as the top 2nd holding. someone estimated he needed 10b to fund his blue bird purchase and he only sold 4. more to come? red wave didn't come except for a sea of red, then came a cpi ice-cream that boosted morale. hopefully santa will bring tiger

The UK stock market has hit an intraday record high, lifted by hopes of interest rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, after setting a new closing high on Monday. The FTSE 100 index touched 8,076 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, surpassing a previous high of 8,047 reached in February 2023. (source:guardian) on the us side, fed officials are not confident inflation is coming down below their 2% target. historically, the fed is slow to increase interest rate when inflation is creeping up and slow to cut rates when market is already at risk of recession.  $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$ pnf shows a new high. investors will most likely be buying up for fear of missing out. ukx is the leading indicator of the us market. the us market may not f

$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ made a new high of 0.624 intraday before pulling back due to weak manufacturing pmi (large cap) of 49 below forecast of 49.5. caixin pmi (small and medium enterprise) 50.8 which is better than the 50.4 estimate. $FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ is the leading indicator of hst. overnight trading activity shows there is more room to drop. there is also a gap at 19.34 to cover. yinn covers gaps but can be a few months later. lunar new year is round the corner, this may give Chinese stocks a boost. do apply automatic investment system where you add shares at each 10% drop or at support zones if you know technical analysis. this way you conserve your capital while the sto

Several factors can impact TSMC's earnings:  * Demand for semiconductors: TSMC is a major supplier of chips for smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices. So, fluctuations in demand for these products can affect TSMC's earnings.  * Capacity utilization: TSMC is currently operating at near capacity. If demand weakens, it could lead to underutilized capacity and lower earnings.  * Pricing: TSMC's pricing power is a key factor in its profitability. If TSMC is forced to lower prices due to competition or other factors, it could hurt its earnings.  * Costs: TSMC's costs are also important. Rising costs of materials, labor, or other expenses could squeeze its profit margins.  * Geopolitical factors: TSMC is a Taiwanese company, and geopolitical tensions betwee

fed target rate 2023 going to be as high as 4.6%. us2y follows the fed rate closely. looking at the chart, upside is limited. monetary authorities of other countries will rebalance and cause the usd to weaken. fed is reducing its balance sheet, this is pushing up yields too. conclusion, yields will stay high and make new highs because of the shrinking balance sheet. sell some usd denominated stocks and sell some usd as a hedge. you can buy more of your home currency denominated stocks for a technical rebound. cheers or cheer up.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$   has been a laggard compared to its brothers $DIA(DIA)$   and$SPY(SPY)$ , you can see from the chart that qqq is the slowest to recover from its all time high. qqq retested its support but dia and spy carried on with santa rally since oct. the sharp rally might also be due to short squeeze. qqq is weak because it is tech and tech are shunned in times of interest rate hikes. many shortists circling, hence a lot of resistance rallying. so buy the laggard after a pullback preferably after bouncing off the retracement level of 61.8% of the fibonacci retracement. the vote is for n

The US semiconductor industry faces several threats, including global competition, supply chain vulnerabilities, intellectual property theft, and geopolitical tensions affecting trade and access to key resources. Additionally, there are concerns about talent shortages and the need for continuous innovation to maintain leadership in the field. Opportunities for the US semiconductor industry include increasing demand for chips in various sectors like automotive, healthcare, and IoT, as well as advancements in technologies like AI, 5G, and quantum computing. There's also potential for government investment in research and development, as well as partnerships with academia and other industries to drive innovation and strengthen the semiconductor ecosystem. middle east tensions cooled a little