Investment Note - First Estimate of CPI for 2023 - Could be looking at a 3.38% End of Year CPI Rate for 2023. Tomorrow forecasting 6% print on the CPI and a 4 handle by the end of the 1st Quarter.   $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$  $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$  $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Labor Shortage has been ongoing and steadily increasing for more than 3 decades (due to low births, low fertility rates, fall in immigration, and very slow growth in the US Labor force.)   $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $DJIA(.DJI)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ I do find it funny that public awareness of the issue is always 30 years too late. Although, if you were a Fed dork like me since high school I remember Alan Greenspan laying this out in the mid-1990s and even earlier in the early 1980s when he chaired a council to save Social Security. For those in the know the labor shortage was

Using 2018 as a guide unemployment hit 3.6% and there were no signs of excess wage growth. We also had 7.1 million job opening. Yet inflation barely registered above 2%. This is not any different (over a longer term). My major issue now is purposely harming the US labor force. I have an ax to grind with this policy prescription. WHY do we have to HARM US WORKERS when we ALL know the EVIDENCE for using NAIRU and the Phillips Curve is EXTREMELY UNRELIABLE? Why do people have to suffer losses in income & employment (?) Every single day I wake up this is WHAT BOTHERS ME MOST WHEN I WATCH FINANCIAL NEWS SHOWS. The incessant attacks on those of us in the 99% (poor, lower middle, middle, and upper middle classes) - If you're rich and or wealthy you will be fine - Don't use Media in negatively

Investment Note - TFY is looking at a 4% Gain this month on the S&P 500 - My inflation prediction will ring true tomorrow. Remember this was the first year i included CPI, CPI Core, and PCE Inflation in my forecast. I didn't do too bad, but still need to work on getting it more correct in 2023. Read the picture. Expecting at least a 2% move up/down following the release off final CPI numbers for December on the 12th. Remember i predicted between 6% & 7% - Rise of punctuated equilibrium. Also i have a dire political prediction the folks who held Congress hostage a few weeks ago. The debt ceiling gimmick will back fire an will not end in the way these guys/gals think. I will elaborate more later.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Follow me to&nbs

I'm now predicting a shallow recession as my baseline for 2023. It is likely to occur in Q3 or Q4, but there is a rising possibility depending on the pace at which Nominal Growth slows and the pace at which inflation falls we could potentially be in for a recession that never materializes until 2024 (or doesn't happen until 2025.) This is data dependent and I will keep an eye on it, but as of now with almost 500 basis points of Federal Reserve hikes (200bps which happened 12 months ago) the economy is still growing at a very rapid rate (Nominal.) Corp Profits will still be high and can easily accommodate wage increases, but not forever, so yes, I agree at some point to restore Global Balance the US will need to see some moderation in income growth. It is unsustainable from a Global Standpo

Investment Note - Recap on Gld recommendation from Dec 2021 - TFY suggest prices would fall in Q1 2022 through Q3 2022. Guess what happened? :) Punctuated Equilibrium - The market is currently predicting much lower levels of inflation going into 2023 and 2024. This is just one metric to judge or anticipate markets perception.   $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$  $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$  $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  

Investment Note - S&P 500 End of Year Target Price - This is an update due to choppy markets and high volatility the distribution of returns has dramatically expanded. I am now forecasting as of the close of Friday's Price a range up or down of 9.5% (+/-) on the S&P 500 by December 31st, 2022. Buy into weakness Extremely Fast Nominal Growth continues to support Corp Revenue Growth and Margins. 200-Day Moving Avg - 4,134.71 Current Price 3,752.75 Price Target High 4,098.74 or P/E 18.41 - Earnings Yield of 5.43% Low 3,418.73 or P/E 14.25 - Earnings Yield of 7.0% Current Earnings Per Share Estimates 2022 - 222.58 Consensus P/E 16.86 or earnings yield of 5.9% 2023 - 239.80 Consensus P/E 15.64 or earnings yield of 6.3% Long-term investors need to use the 2023 shallow Recession

The inflation stats continue to fall within range i had at the low end 7.97% and high end 9%. Numbers are still high, but the growth rate of the 2nd derivative is falling, which also lowers the annualized rate of growth in CPI. We are still on pace to close the year at between 6% or 7% inflation. These numbers will hit the Base Effects in Q1 of 2023 and likely continue to come down significantly. Be patient we are going to be well above 2% mandate until 2024. Although, I think the Federal Reserve should up the tolerance from 2% to 2.5 to 3%.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$  $iShares 20+ Ye

August 2022 Labor (actual) vs Estimates Civilian Labor 164,746 (actual) TFY Estimate 162,039 (Diff 2.7M) Participation Rate 62.4% (actual) TFY Estimate 61.7% (Diff 0.7%) Employed 158,732 (actual) TFY Estimate 156,668 (Diff 2.0M) Employment - population ratio 60.1 (actual) TFY Estimate 59.7 (0.4%) Unemployed 6,014 (actual) TFY Estimate 5,056 (Diff 958k) Unemployment Rate 3.7 (actual) TFY Estimate 3.1% (Diff 0.6)Labor Market Forecast created 2 years ago in 2020 (Jan) vs Actual Numbers-Differences-Not bad forecasting, but I have to figure out how to make adjustments to the unemployment based on a rise in the participation rate.Remember a tick-up in unemployment during rapid job growth is always positive it means more people are CHOOSING to enter the Labor Market and Look for work.This makes m