I have tried to explain in a previous post the seldom talked about benefits to the Federal Government of higher inflation (which will not last for more than an additional 8 to 24 months.) This illustrates two points I have tried to stress to the public. Overall it is net beneficial for Fiscal Revenue and a huge net positive for Reducing the Real Value of the Federal Deficit and also the Federal Debt in Real terms. A period of long-term inflation is not good for the overall economy, but given the reflation policies purposely enacted to deal with Covid a short period of above-average inflation IS NOT A BAD THING - it will help re-align fiscal spending on a Real basis while also allowing the Government to collect a MUCH HIGHER source of Tax revenue from both Households and Corporations (w/o any changes to the tax system.)
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$
- Please read the most recent report highlighted in Yellow.
I talked a lot about the Twin Deficit earlier in the year and my expectation for the Fiscal and Trade side. It is fairly obvious with a month to go in the Fiscal Calculation my forecast will likely come out correct. I want to continue to stress the nominal and real benefits and also the risk in 2023 this will pose to US GDP Growth. We are going to undergo a MASSIVE continuation of FISCAL DRAG in 2023, which will likely push the US Economy into a Recession (hopefully a shallow recession.) US 99% Keep coming back into the Labor Market Great Job in 2022 making a strong return.
I'm so happy to see above historical average pick up in Nominal Wage growth for Non-Supervisory Workers - If my inflation expectations continue to play out with a continuation of the tight labor market we should see this transition into above historical average Real Wage Growth, which is very beneficial for the 99% (All races, genders, and political party).
Series on Continuing Claims and US as of 9/05/2022
Unemployed 1,438,128
The big 6 States Continuing Claims
California 320,265 Increase 11,045
Texas 102,922 Decrease-1,031
New York 145,931 Increase 5,925
Illinois 63,675 Decrease -1,349
Florida 36,914 Decrease-3,615
Pennsylvania 72,534 Decrease -13,230
0.742 Million in 6 States of the 1.43 (M) 51.8% of Total Unemployed
White UE 3.2% = 4,043 (Million)
Black UE 6.4% = 1,347 (M)
Hispanic UE 4.5% = 1,379 (M)
Asian UE 2.8% = 307(M)
Total US UE = 6,014((M)
Total US Employment 158,732(M)
% of Total Unemployed
White UE 3.2% = 4,043 (Million) 67.2% (Civilian Pop 77%)
Black UE 6.4% = 1,347 (M) 22.3% (Civilian Pop 12%)
Hispanic UE 4.5% = 1,379 (M) 22.9% (Civilian Pop 16%)
Asian UE 2.8% = 307 (M) 5.1% (Civilian Pop 6%)
Total US UE = 6,014 (M) 100%
Total US Employment 158,732(M)
Minority Unemployment Grouped = 2.9M (AA/Black, Hispanic,& Asian)
Non-Farm Payrolls Data-Great job 99% keep coming back to the Labor Market-More Employment =More Output-Also NAIRU Supporters who want to harm the 99% you're on WATCH-This is a pernicious b/s concept that should have gone the way of the DODO at the end of the 1980s. Let it go. An army of the Unemployed will no longer be tolerated.
2021 Non-Farm Payrolls
Jan 520
Feb 710
Mar 704
Apr 263
May 447
Jun 557
Jul 689
Aug 517
Sep 424
Oct 677
Nov 647
Dec 588
Total 6,743M (Yearly Avg 561.91 Per Month)
2022 Non-Farm Payrolls
Jan 504
Feb 714
Mar 398
Apr 368
May 386
Jun 293
Jul 526
Aug 315
Total 3,504M (Yearly Avg 438 Per Month)-(Annualized Pace 5,256)
*We don't have a large enough pool of laborers to meet the 5.2M pace, so we are very likely to see the pace of NFP growth slowing below the current average. Keep in mind this is just one of two reports, but it is the report the public is most familiar with, etc.
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