非一般股民 personal page - To The Moon

非一般股民

No personal profile

13Follow

249Followers

0Topic

0Badge

非一般股民

03-28 08:06

gld

非一般股民

03-28 08:06

popmart

非一般股民

03-28 08:05

ai

非一般股民

03-27

gld

非一般股民

03-26

gld

@愛吃辣的小老虎:【🎁有獎話題】3月寒流襲來：為什麼連黃金都不避險了？

非一般股民

03-25

amz

非一般股民

03-25

BIG6

非一般股民

03-25

etf

@ETF唔係ET虎:【🎁有獎話題】油價爆了美聯儲要加息？將使債券ETF承壓？從歷史數據看如何？

非一般股民

03-25

nvda

非一般股民

03-25

hsi

非一般股民

03-24

amz

非一般股民

03-23

sandisk

非一般股民

03-21

TQQQ

非一般股民

03-21

ATT

非一般股民

03-19

TQQQ

非一般股民

03-19

taco

非一般股民

03-19

caterpillar

@財報話你知:【🎁美財報季暴漲靚股】農用機械巨頭迪爾股份業績同指引超預期！股價穩步上升！AI＋農業有前景嗎？

非一般股民

03-19

retail

非一般股民

03-19

eth

@Crypto加密虎:【🎁有獎話題】BTC三連升再上7.5萬！下一個目標8萬？

非一般股民

03-19

fb

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4149665799884162","uuid":"4149665799884162","gmtCreate":1686562687984,"gmtModify":1689166712500,"name":"非一般股民","pinyin":"fybgmfeiyibangumin","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":249,"headSize":13,"tweetSize":1098,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.04","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},{"badgeId":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577-1","templateUuid":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577","name":"Emerging Contributor","description":"Contributors who received Editor's Pick for the 1st time","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.10","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":547357077956048,"gmtCreate":1774656403212,"gmtModify":1774656406352,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gld","listText":"gld","text":"gld","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/547357077956048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":547356495524192,"gmtCreate":1774656370458,"gmtModify":1774656373455,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"popmart","listText":"popmart","text":"popmart","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/547356495524192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":547356736476688,"gmtCreate":1774656327147,"gmtModify":1774656331123,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ai","listText":"ai","text":"ai","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/547356736476688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":547091890495600,"gmtCreate":1774591635041,"gmtModify":1774591638154,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gld","listText":"gld","text":"gld","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/547091890495600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546864164642936,"gmtCreate":1774536045866,"gmtModify":1774536048929,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gld","listText":"gld","text":"gld","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546864164642936","repostId":"546704635330616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":546704635330616,"gmtCreate":1774496863031,"gmtModify":1774498800678,"author":{"id":"4134020005550552","authorId":"4134020005550552","name":"愛吃辣的小老虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ad2466c67d5dffe9ad61a7ccc0342a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4134020005550552","authorIdStr":"4134020005550552"},"themes":[],"title":"【🎁有獎話題】3月寒流襲來：為什麼連黃金都不避險了？","htmlText":"Hello小虎們，延續2026年一月份的狂熱，三月的市場卻像撞上了一道冰冷的牆。[Cry]標普500指數（SPY）下跌約4%、就業市場轉冷，而曾經推動市場的「科技七雄」AI支出也開始面臨質疑。當我們看到油價因地緣衝突暴漲50%，而黃金卻失去避險功能時，很多人開始問：這個所謂的「第四波牛市」，是否只是掩蓋經濟衰退的假象？[Doubt]作為零售交易者，我們正處於一場「系統性糾結」的核心。我們將這些數據拆解為以下五個活生生的邏輯，解釋它們如何潛入你的日常生活並重新定義你的投資組合。[Lovely]一、 K 型極化：資產回報與勞動薪資的「結構性斷裂」是什麼：Multi-Dimensional Polarization（多維極化），經濟不再是整體的升降，而是裂成了向上與向下發展的兩條線，形狀像個 「K」。背後的邏輯：2026年是AI基礎設施落地的巔峯，企業瘋狂進行AI資本支出（Capex）（如採購NVIDIA的Vera Rubin平臺）。結果是：企業效率提高了，股價漲了，但對於普通人的職位需求卻萎縮了，資本回報（股市、股息）與勞動薪資（薪水）失去了同步增長的動力。如何影響股市：標普500被少數AI巨頭撐住，但如果持有的是傳統製造業或中小型服務業（如羅素2000），會因「高利息 + 低需求」而受創。二、 非農數據：衡量「經濟停滯」的殘酷指標是什麼：在2026年，Non-Farm Payrolls（非農就業數據）不再是增長指標，而是衡量經濟這臺引擎是否「熄火」的溫度計。根據美國勞工統計局公佈的最新數據，2月非農就業人口淨減少9.2萬，遠低於市場預期的增長5.5萬，較最悲觀預期還低出8.3萬。這是自2020年以來第二次出現單月負增長，僅次於去年10月的-14萬。與此同時，失業率從1月的4.3%升至4.4%，高於市場預期。背後的邏輯：在滯脹下，就業呈現「質與量」的背離。AI取代了白領職位，而","listText":"Hello小虎們，延續2026年一月份的狂熱，三月的市場卻像撞上了一道冰冷的牆。[Cry]標普500指數（SPY）下跌約4%、就業市場轉冷，而曾經推動市場的「科技七雄」AI支出也開始面臨質疑。當我們看到油價因地緣衝突暴漲50%，而黃金卻失去避險功能時，很多人開始問：這個所謂的「第四波牛市」，是否只是掩蓋經濟衰退的假象？[Doubt]作為零售交易者，我們正處於一場「系統性糾結」的核心。我們將這些數據拆解為以下五個活生生的邏輯，解釋它們如何潛入你的日常生活並重新定義你的投資組合。[Lovely]一、 K 型極化：資產回報與勞動薪資的「結構性斷裂」是什麼：Multi-Dimensional Polarization（多維極化），經濟不再是整體的升降，而是裂成了向上與向下發展的兩條線，形狀像個 「K」。背後的邏輯：2026年是AI基礎設施落地的巔峯，企業瘋狂進行AI資本支出（Capex）（如採購NVIDIA的Vera Rubin平臺）。結果是：企業效率提高了，股價漲了，但對於普通人的職位需求卻萎縮了，資本回報（股市、股息）與勞動薪資（薪水）失去了同步增長的動力。如何影響股市：標普500被少數AI巨頭撐住，但如果持有的是傳統製造業或中小型服務業（如羅素2000），會因「高利息 + 低需求」而受創。二、 非農數據：衡量「經濟停滯」的殘酷指標是什麼：在2026年，Non-Farm Payrolls（非農就業數據）不再是增長指標，而是衡量經濟這臺引擎是否「熄火」的溫度計。根據美國勞工統計局公佈的最新數據，2月非農就業人口淨減少9.2萬，遠低於市場預期的增長5.5萬，較最悲觀預期還低出8.3萬。這是自2020年以來第二次出現單月負增長，僅次於去年10月的-14萬。與此同時，失業率從1月的4.3%升至4.4%，高於市場預期。背後的邏輯：在滯脹下，就業呈現「質與量」的背離。AI取代了白領職位，而","text":"Hello小虎們，延續2026年一月份的狂熱，三月的市場卻像撞上了一道冰冷的牆。[Cry]標普500指數（SPY）下跌約4%、就業市場轉冷，而曾經推動市場的「科技七雄」AI支出也開始面臨質疑。當我們看到油價因地緣衝突暴漲50%，而黃金卻失去避險功能時，很多人開始問：這個所謂的「第四波牛市」，是否只是掩蓋經濟衰退的假象？[Doubt]作為零售交易者，我們正處於一場「系統性糾結」的核心。我們將這些數據拆解為以下五個活生生的邏輯，解釋它們如何潛入你的日常生活並重新定義你的投資組合。[Lovely]一、 K 型極化：資產回報與勞動薪資的「結構性斷裂」是什麼：Multi-Dimensional Polarization（多維極化），經濟不再是整體的升降，而是裂成了向上與向下發展的兩條線，形狀像個 「K」。背後的邏輯：2026年是AI基礎設施落地的巔峯，企業瘋狂進行AI資本支出（Capex）（如採購NVIDIA的Vera Rubin平臺）。結果是：企業效率提高了，股價漲了，但對於普通人的職位需求卻萎縮了，資本回報（股市、股息）與勞動薪資（薪水）失去了同步增長的動力。如何影響股市：標普500被少數AI巨頭撐住，但如果持有的是傳統製造業或中小型服務業（如羅素2000），會因「高利息 + 低需求」而受創。二、 非農數據：衡量「經濟停滯」的殘酷指標是什麼：在2026年，Non-Farm Payrolls（非農就業數據）不再是增長指標，而是衡量經濟這臺引擎是否「熄火」的溫度計。根據美國勞工統計局公佈的最新數據，2月非農就業人口淨減少9.2萬，遠低於市場預期的增長5.5萬，較最悲觀預期還低出8.3萬。這是自2020年以來第二次出現單月負增長，僅次於去年10月的-14萬。與此同時，失業率從1月的4.3%升至4.4%，高於市場預期。背後的邏輯：在滯脹下，就業呈現「質與量」的背離。AI取代了白領職位，而","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff26ca0695e3d9415b383c2b758a887b"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd0ffd10ebe15165c13ddab2fb8bf68c"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1fe307ad20567bfe687d56bbfea9542"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546704635330616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546467453673912,"gmtCreate":1774440597467,"gmtModify":1774440600579,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"amz","listText":"amz","text":"amz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546467453673912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546467380613304,"gmtCreate":1774440572595,"gmtModify":1774440575829,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BIG6","listText":"BIG6","text":"BIG6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546467380613304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546466984506680,"gmtCreate":1774440512554,"gmtModify":1774440515847,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"etf","listText":"etf","text":"etf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546466984506680","repostId":"546099286098032","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":546099286098032,"gmtCreate":1774346046479,"gmtModify":1774417800160,"author":{"id":"4142573913947612","authorId":"4142573913947612","name":"ETF唔係ET虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c47e65ebcee63532badc6556a412fff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142573913947612","authorIdStr":"4142573913947612"},"themes":[],"title":"【🎁有獎話題】油價爆了美聯儲要加息？將使債券ETF承壓？從歷史數據看如何？","htmlText":"小虎們，近期美伊局勢的發展與走向越發撲朔迷離，全球股市起起伏伏，而油價也不斷飆漲又下跌！[Cool] 那麼從歷史上來看油價大漲100%會怎麼樣呢？事實上油價大漲可能還會使債券ETF承壓！[Thinking] 那麼眼下我們應該如何佈局港美油氣股與相關etf呢？[YoYo] 一、油價大漲100%後，歷史告訴我們什麼？ <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> 回溯至1974年的數據顯示，當油價飆升超過100%之後，標普500指數在一個月、三個月、六個月及一年後的表現中位數均呈現上漲。油價飆升期間，標普500指數的漲幅中位數為6%。 但這並不意味著你可以閉眼衝進去。摩根大通分析師Mislav Matejka警告：「如果油價從目前水準進一步飆升，考慮到波斯灣生產恐會成為攻擊目標，油價極可能推升至120至130美元甚至更高，屆時股市不得不重新向下定價。」 換句話說，歷史規律是「短期震盪、中期修復」，但前提是油價漲幅可控。一旦失控，誰也救不了。 油價大漲的傳導鏈條是這樣的： 傳導環節 影響機制 消費者 油價上漲→汽油、取暖油價格上漲→可支配收入減少→消費需求下降 企業 能源成本上升→利潤率壓縮→資本開支減少 央行 通脹預期升溫→加息/推遲降息→流動性收緊 股市 盈利預期下調+估值壓縮→股價下跌 川普前高級經濟顧問柯恩直言：「油價上漲會造成經濟衰退。對於消費者來說，沒有什麼比油價跳動更直觀的感受，可支配所得嚴重受損，價格敏感族羣首當其衝。」 簡單來說：油價漲得太快，就是一把雙刃劍，能源公司賺錢，但整個經濟受傷。 二、油價飆漲的連鎖反應：債券ETF為何承壓？ 本週，受油價飆漲和央行鷹派言論的影響，債券殖利率走高，債券ETF普遍承壓。 債市反應的傳導機制： 通脹預期升溫：油價上漲直接推高CPI，市場開始擔憂「通脹失控」 央行","listText":"小虎們，近期美伊局勢的發展與走向越發撲朔迷離，全球股市起起伏伏，而油價也不斷飆漲又下跌！[Cool] 那麼從歷史上來看油價大漲100%會怎麼樣呢？事實上油價大漲可能還會使債券ETF承壓！[Thinking] 那麼眼下我們應該如何佈局港美油氣股與相關etf呢？[YoYo] 一、油價大漲100%後，歷史告訴我們什麼？ <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> 回溯至1974年的數據顯示，當油價飆升超過100%之後，標普500指數在一個月、三個月、六個月及一年後的表現中位數均呈現上漲。油價飆升期間，標普500指數的漲幅中位數為6%。 但這並不意味著你可以閉眼衝進去。摩根大通分析師Mislav Matejka警告：「如果油價從目前水準進一步飆升，考慮到波斯灣生產恐會成為攻擊目標，油價極可能推升至120至130美元甚至更高，屆時股市不得不重新向下定價。」 換句話說，歷史規律是「短期震盪、中期修復」，但前提是油價漲幅可控。一旦失控，誰也救不了。 油價大漲的傳導鏈條是這樣的： 傳導環節 影響機制 消費者 油價上漲→汽油、取暖油價格上漲→可支配收入減少→消費需求下降 企業 能源成本上升→利潤率壓縮→資本開支減少 央行 通脹預期升溫→加息/推遲降息→流動性收緊 股市 盈利預期下調+估值壓縮→股價下跌 川普前高級經濟顧問柯恩直言：「油價上漲會造成經濟衰退。對於消費者來說，沒有什麼比油價跳動更直觀的感受，可支配所得嚴重受損，價格敏感族羣首當其衝。」 簡單來說：油價漲得太快，就是一把雙刃劍，能源公司賺錢，但整個經濟受傷。 二、油價飆漲的連鎖反應：債券ETF為何承壓？ 本週，受油價飆漲和央行鷹派言論的影響，債券殖利率走高，債券ETF普遍承壓。 債市反應的傳導機制： 通脹預期升溫：油價上漲直接推高CPI，市場開始擔憂「通脹失控」 央行","text":"小虎們，近期美伊局勢的發展與走向越發撲朔迷離，全球股市起起伏伏，而油價也不斷飆漲又下跌！[Cool] 那麼從歷史上來看油價大漲100%會怎麼樣呢？事實上油價大漲可能還會使債券ETF承壓！[Thinking] 那麼眼下我們應該如何佈局港美油氣股與相關etf呢？[YoYo] 一、油價大漲100%後，歷史告訴我們什麼？ $摩根大通(JPM)$ 回溯至1974年的數據顯示，當油價飆升超過100%之後，標普500指數在一個月、三個月、六個月及一年後的表現中位數均呈現上漲。油價飆升期間，標普500指數的漲幅中位數為6%。 但這並不意味著你可以閉眼衝進去。摩根大通分析師Mislav Matejka警告：「如果油價從目前水準進一步飆升，考慮到波斯灣生產恐會成為攻擊目標，油價極可能推升至120至130美元甚至更高，屆時股市不得不重新向下定價。」 換句話說，歷史規律是「短期震盪、中期修復」，但前提是油價漲幅可控。一旦失控，誰也救不了。 油價大漲的傳導鏈條是這樣的： 傳導環節 影響機制 消費者 油價上漲→汽油、取暖油價格上漲→可支配收入減少→消費需求下降 企業 能源成本上升→利潤率壓縮→資本開支減少 央行 通脹預期升溫→加息/推遲降息→流動性收緊 股市 盈利預期下調+估值壓縮→股價下跌 川普前高級經濟顧問柯恩直言：「油價上漲會造成經濟衰退。對於消費者來說，沒有什麼比油價跳動更直觀的感受，可支配所得嚴重受損，價格敏感族羣首當其衝。」 簡單來說：油價漲得太快，就是一把雙刃劍，能源公司賺錢，但整個經濟受傷。 二、油價飆漲的連鎖反應：債券ETF為何承壓？ 本週，受油價飆漲和央行鷹派言論的影響，債券殖利率走高，債券ETF普遍承壓。 債市反應的傳導機制： 通脹預期升溫：油價上漲直接推高CPI，市場開始擔憂「通脹失控」 央行","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8497154d6c191e90d988978cb2aca44"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3778a0dd4e99bfe3925fdc19d2551425"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2eb0670f0e8ca7246c8cdd472e137dc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546099286098032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546466356549104,"gmtCreate":1774440488917,"gmtModify":1774440492391,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nvda","listText":"nvda","text":"nvda","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546466356549104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546466335929048,"gmtCreate":1774440439394,"gmtModify":1774440443144,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hsi","listText":"hsi","text":"hsi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546466335929048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546050106417648,"gmtCreate":1774324153000,"gmtModify":1774324156455,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"amz","listText":"amz","text":"amz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/546050106417648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":545804281554616,"gmtCreate":1774264063616,"gmtModify":1774264067494,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sandisk","listText":"sandisk","text":"sandisk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/545804281554616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544979023242624,"gmtCreate":1774062708375,"gmtModify":1774062711248,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TQQQ","listText":"TQQQ","text":"TQQQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544979023242624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544979478685064,"gmtCreate":1774062678219,"gmtModify":1774062681444,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATT","listText":"ATT","text":"ATT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544979478685064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544261685969800,"gmtCreate":1773904086921,"gmtModify":1773904090090,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TQQQ","listText":"TQQQ","text":"TQQQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544261685969800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544259998954792,"gmtCreate":1773903915738,"gmtModify":1773903920175,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"taco","listText":"taco","text":"taco","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544259998954792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544259293712496,"gmtCreate":1773903717542,"gmtModify":1773903721153,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"caterpillar","listText":"caterpillar","text":"caterpillar","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544259293712496","repostId":"541829350285552","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":541829350285552,"gmtCreate":1773306256676,"gmtModify":1773324600290,"author":{"id":"4136423143289492","authorId":"4136423143289492","name":"財報話你知","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96f437ff7e7f78c1e24bf0faa8c074dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136423143289492","authorIdStr":"4136423143289492"},"themes":[],"title":"【🎁美財報季暴漲靚股】農用機械巨頭迪爾股份業績同指引超預期！股價穩步上升！AI＋農業有前景嗎？","htmlText":"Hi小虎們，前兩天財報虎跟大家聊了聊甲骨文財報前瞻，慧與科技財報與股價，以及啱啱亮相的終於賺錢、讓人看到一些未來曙光的蔚來汽車，並將其與理想、小鵬進行對比，小虎們怎麼看呢？[Wow] 今天財報虎給大家介紹一家比較冷門的農用機械巨頭公司——迪爾股份有限公司~~~[Sly] 迪爾股份Q1業績超預期！ 2月19日美股盤前，農用機械巨頭迪爾股份公佈了2026年Q1業績，當季營收按年增長13%至96.11億美元，超過市場普遍預期（77億美元）；淨利潤按年下降25%至6.56億美元；淨銷售額按年增長18%至80億美元；攤薄後每股收益為2.42美元，優於分析師普遍預期的2.06美元，但低於上年同期的3.19美元。[Miser] 業績展望上，預計2026財年全年淨利潤為45億至50億美元，高於此前預測的40億至47.5億美元，同時也高於分析師普遍預測的44.5億美元。[Smart] 公司CEO John May在財報電話會上強調，當前全球大型農業行業不斷面臨挑戰，但公司對於建築和小型農業持續復甦的需要感到樂觀，他認為2026年將是當前週期的底部！但其行業其他競爭對手則採取了更加謹慎，表示農業機械銷售可能要到2027年才能實現全面復甦，主要受到農作物價格低迷，種子、化肥和機械成本相對較高的擠壓。[Observation] 圖源：迪爾股份財報 在財報公佈當天，迪爾股份在盤中一度升超13%，創下歷史新高的674.19美元，今年以來升幅超27%，2025年全年累計升幅近10%，截至隔夜美股收盤，公司收漲0.22%至594.04美元，總市值為1606億美元。[Miser] 華爾街大行對於公司的平均目標價為637美元，財報虎也給大家整理了機構們對迪爾股份的目標價預測與評級： Morgan Stanley：給予「增持」評級，目標價為730美元； Citigroup：給予「中性」評級，目標價為675美元；","listText":"Hi小虎們，前兩天財報虎跟大家聊了聊甲骨文財報前瞻，慧與科技財報與股價，以及啱啱亮相的終於賺錢、讓人看到一些未來曙光的蔚來汽車，並將其與理想、小鵬進行對比，小虎們怎麼看呢？[Wow] 今天財報虎給大家介紹一家比較冷門的農用機械巨頭公司——迪爾股份有限公司~~~[Sly] 迪爾股份Q1業績超預期！ 2月19日美股盤前，農用機械巨頭迪爾股份公佈了2026年Q1業績，當季營收按年增長13%至96.11億美元，超過市場普遍預期（77億美元）；淨利潤按年下降25%至6.56億美元；淨銷售額按年增長18%至80億美元；攤薄後每股收益為2.42美元，優於分析師普遍預期的2.06美元，但低於上年同期的3.19美元。[Miser] 業績展望上，預計2026財年全年淨利潤為45億至50億美元，高於此前預測的40億至47.5億美元，同時也高於分析師普遍預測的44.5億美元。[Smart] 公司CEO John May在財報電話會上強調，當前全球大型農業行業不斷面臨挑戰，但公司對於建築和小型農業持續復甦的需要感到樂觀，他認為2026年將是當前週期的底部！但其行業其他競爭對手則採取了更加謹慎，表示農業機械銷售可能要到2027年才能實現全面復甦，主要受到農作物價格低迷，種子、化肥和機械成本相對較高的擠壓。[Observation] 圖源：迪爾股份財報 在財報公佈當天，迪爾股份在盤中一度升超13%，創下歷史新高的674.19美元，今年以來升幅超27%，2025年全年累計升幅近10%，截至隔夜美股收盤，公司收漲0.22%至594.04美元，總市值為1606億美元。[Miser] 華爾街大行對於公司的平均目標價為637美元，財報虎也給大家整理了機構們對迪爾股份的目標價預測與評級： Morgan Stanley：給予「增持」評級，目標價為730美元； Citigroup：給予「中性」評級，目標價為675美元；","text":"Hi小虎們，前兩天財報虎跟大家聊了聊甲骨文財報前瞻，慧與科技財報與股價，以及啱啱亮相的終於賺錢、讓人看到一些未來曙光的蔚來汽車，並將其與理想、小鵬進行對比，小虎們怎麼看呢？[Wow] 今天財報虎給大家介紹一家比較冷門的農用機械巨頭公司——迪爾股份有限公司~~~[Sly] 迪爾股份Q1業績超預期！ 2月19日美股盤前，農用機械巨頭迪爾股份公佈了2026年Q1業績，當季營收按年增長13%至96.11億美元，超過市場普遍預期（77億美元）；淨利潤按年下降25%至6.56億美元；淨銷售額按年增長18%至80億美元；攤薄後每股收益為2.42美元，優於分析師普遍預期的2.06美元，但低於上年同期的3.19美元。[Miser] 業績展望上，預計2026財年全年淨利潤為45億至50億美元，高於此前預測的40億至47.5億美元，同時也高於分析師普遍預測的44.5億美元。[Smart] 公司CEO John May在財報電話會上強調，當前全球大型農業行業不斷面臨挑戰，但公司對於建築和小型農業持續復甦的需要感到樂觀，他認為2026年將是當前週期的底部！但其行業其他競爭對手則採取了更加謹慎，表示農業機械銷售可能要到2027年才能實現全面復甦，主要受到農作物價格低迷，種子、化肥和機械成本相對較高的擠壓。[Observation] 圖源：迪爾股份財報 在財報公佈當天，迪爾股份在盤中一度升超13%，創下歷史新高的674.19美元，今年以來升幅超27%，2025年全年累計升幅近10%，截至隔夜美股收盤，公司收漲0.22%至594.04美元，總市值為1606億美元。[Miser] 華爾街大行對於公司的平均目標價為637美元，財報虎也給大家整理了機構們對迪爾股份的目標價預測與評級： Morgan Stanley：給予「增持」評級，目標價為730美元； Citigroup：給予「中性」評級，目標價為675美元；","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1cfa3378269cc999ec188f2c52a7b766"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c30135f732eab029045f1b620250326"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a491dcf4d00cdfd1971facaa96ae613b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/541829350285552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544260113584464,"gmtCreate":1773903674099,"gmtModify":1773903678027,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"retail","listText":"retail","text":"retail","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544260113584464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544259323679800,"gmtCreate":1773903630097,"gmtModify":1773903633422,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"eth","listText":"eth","text":"eth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544259323679800","repostId":"543589800640728","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":543589800640728,"gmtCreate":1773736053442,"gmtModify":1773756000724,"author":{"id":"4182991226837512","authorId":"4182991226837512","name":"Crypto加密虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7064a3864f92862baa8d524e4144fab4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4182991226837512","authorIdStr":"4182991226837512"},"themes":[],"title":"【🎁有獎話題】BTC三連升再上7.5萬！下一個目標8萬？","htmlText":"各位小虎們！比特幣日前升近3%，衝上7.5萬美元，在地緣政治不確定性加劇的情況下，比特幣帶領着加密貨幣上演了「獨立行情」，這是否代表着比特幣就此走出泥潭，下一個目標是否會是8萬美元呢？[Lovely]比特幣衝上7.5萬美元關口！受到美伊兩國軍事衝突引發的市場動盪，在進入新的一週後可能出現緩解，VIX指數隔夜盤中一度跌超14%，美股三大指數均收漲，而最讓人驚訝的，則是比特幣帶領加密貨幣等風險資產上演大反攻。[Surprised]根據CoinGlass數據，比特幣24小時升近4%至7.5萬美元以上，實現三連升，價格升至近6周高位，創下2月4日以來的最高水平，但相較去年10月創下的歷史高點仍下跌近40%；以太坊24小時升超8%至2355美元，是自3月4日以來最大升幅，達到2月初以來最高水平；SOL 24小時升超4%至95美元，XRP、DOGE、BNB等都呈現明顯升幅。[Miser]最近24小時，全球共有超13萬人被爆倉，爆倉總金額超6億美元，恐慌指數目前已經大幅回升至28，市場擺脫「極度恐慌」，進入「恐慌」區間。[Facepalm]在美伊兩國衝突爆發至今，比特幣的表現要優於許多避險資產，比如去年佔盡風頭的黃金與白銀，黃金期貨本月累計跌超5%，白銀期貨累計跌近14%，而比特幣則上升超12%。昨日WTI原油主連期貨重返100美元，本月累計升幅超40%。由於一些庫存充足的國家可能會釋放一些原油庫存，並且有樂觀信號表示更多油輪可能會經過霍爾木茲海峽，油價下跌也提升了股債市場的積極情緒。[Cool]加密貨幣市場全面上升根據鏈上數據公司Glassnode數據，市場莊家在7.5萬美元水平釋放出「結構性短缺看漲期權」，該公司分析師表示，隨着比特幣現貨價格接近該水平，對衝流可能會加強，從而可能放大價格的上行波動。根據預測平臺Polymarket數據，在比特幣重返7.5萬美元的關鍵心理價位後，押注三","listText":"各位小虎們！比特幣日前升近3%，衝上7.5萬美元，在地緣政治不確定性加劇的情況下，比特幣帶領着加密貨幣上演了「獨立行情」，這是否代表着比特幣就此走出泥潭，下一個目標是否會是8萬美元呢？[Lovely]比特幣衝上7.5萬美元關口！受到美伊兩國軍事衝突引發的市場動盪，在進入新的一週後可能出現緩解，VIX指數隔夜盤中一度跌超14%，美股三大指數均收漲，而最讓人驚訝的，則是比特幣帶領加密貨幣等風險資產上演大反攻。[Surprised]根據CoinGlass數據，比特幣24小時升近4%至7.5萬美元以上，實現三連升，價格升至近6周高位，創下2月4日以來的最高水平，但相較去年10月創下的歷史高點仍下跌近40%；以太坊24小時升超8%至2355美元，是自3月4日以來最大升幅，達到2月初以來最高水平；SOL 24小時升超4%至95美元，XRP、DOGE、BNB等都呈現明顯升幅。[Miser]最近24小時，全球共有超13萬人被爆倉，爆倉總金額超6億美元，恐慌指數目前已經大幅回升至28，市場擺脫「極度恐慌」，進入「恐慌」區間。[Facepalm]在美伊兩國衝突爆發至今，比特幣的表現要優於許多避險資產，比如去年佔盡風頭的黃金與白銀，黃金期貨本月累計跌超5%，白銀期貨累計跌近14%，而比特幣則上升超12%。昨日WTI原油主連期貨重返100美元，本月累計升幅超40%。由於一些庫存充足的國家可能會釋放一些原油庫存，並且有樂觀信號表示更多油輪可能會經過霍爾木茲海峽，油價下跌也提升了股債市場的積極情緒。[Cool]加密貨幣市場全面上升根據鏈上數據公司Glassnode數據，市場莊家在7.5萬美元水平釋放出「結構性短缺看漲期權」，該公司分析師表示，隨着比特幣現貨價格接近該水平，對衝流可能會加強，從而可能放大價格的上行波動。根據預測平臺Polymarket數據，在比特幣重返7.5萬美元的關鍵心理價位後，押注三","text":"各位小虎們！比特幣日前升近3%，衝上7.5萬美元，在地緣政治不確定性加劇的情況下，比特幣帶領着加密貨幣上演了「獨立行情」，這是否代表着比特幣就此走出泥潭，下一個目標是否會是8萬美元呢？[Lovely]比特幣衝上7.5萬美元關口！受到美伊兩國軍事衝突引發的市場動盪，在進入新的一週後可能出現緩解，VIX指數隔夜盤中一度跌超14%，美股三大指數均收漲，而最讓人驚訝的，則是比特幣帶領加密貨幣等風險資產上演大反攻。[Surprised]根據CoinGlass數據，比特幣24小時升近4%至7.5萬美元以上，實現三連升，價格升至近6周高位，創下2月4日以來的最高水平，但相較去年10月創下的歷史高點仍下跌近40%；以太坊24小時升超8%至2355美元，是自3月4日以來最大升幅，達到2月初以來最高水平；SOL 24小時升超4%至95美元，XRP、DOGE、BNB等都呈現明顯升幅。[Miser]最近24小時，全球共有超13萬人被爆倉，爆倉總金額超6億美元，恐慌指數目前已經大幅回升至28，市場擺脫「極度恐慌」，進入「恐慌」區間。[Facepalm]在美伊兩國衝突爆發至今，比特幣的表現要優於許多避險資產，比如去年佔盡風頭的黃金與白銀，黃金期貨本月累計跌超5%，白銀期貨累計跌近14%，而比特幣則上升超12%。昨日WTI原油主連期貨重返100美元，本月累計升幅超40%。由於一些庫存充足的國家可能會釋放一些原油庫存，並且有樂觀信號表示更多油輪可能會經過霍爾木茲海峽，油價下跌也提升了股債市場的積極情緒。[Cool]加密貨幣市場全面上升根據鏈上數據公司Glassnode數據，市場莊家在7.5萬美元水平釋放出「結構性短缺看漲期權」，該公司分析師表示，隨着比特幣現貨價格接近該水平，對衝流可能會加強，從而可能放大價格的上行波動。根據預測平臺Polymarket數據，在比特幣重返7.5萬美元的關鍵心理價位後，押注三","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/808d7f8d1b60cb36f45ae14037bb74f3"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87cecd47abb5b2f759fc8b73baf5c38c"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0690a846265d6b3045ea14fa3da42877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/543589800640728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544259224479008,"gmtCreate":1773903621662,"gmtModify":1773903624879,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4149665799884162","authorIdStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fb","listText":"fb","text":"fb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/544259224479008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":513889393967488,"gmtCreate":1766491663988,"gmtModify":1766491667862,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"all in tqqq","listText":"all in tqqq","text":"all in tqqq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/513889393967488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":530271491843032,"gmtCreate":1770482376732,"gmtModify":1770482379865,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"amzn","listText":"amzn","text":"amzn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/530271491843032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":512459808072424,"gmtCreate":1766139903180,"gmtModify":1766139906930,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"lulu","listText":"lulu","text":"lulu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/512459808072424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":414524147184072,"gmtCreate":1742189192909,"gmtModify":1742189620748,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/04273\">$政府綠債二六一零(04273)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/04273\">$政府綠債二六一零(04273)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$政府綠債二六一零(04273)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b2315679c2a1704a3206acafc9ab06b","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/414524147184072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":540819903509456,"gmtCreate":1773057788045,"gmtModify":1773057791160,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hso","listText":"hso","text":"hso","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/540819903509456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":540830334461144,"gmtCreate":1773057772050,"gmtModify":1773057775800,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gld","listText":"gld","text":"gld","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/540830334461144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":540829109048944,"gmtCreate":1773057764851,"gmtModify":1773057768720,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oil","listText":"oil","text":"oil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/540829109048944","repostId":"540763096150216","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":540763096150216,"gmtCreate":1773048606029,"gmtModify":1773052200263,"author":{"id":"4151580619366202","authorId":"4151580619366202","name":"期貨茄哩虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/863aa604a275b440856f87fa5deadb8c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4151580619366202","idStr":"4151580619366202"},"themes":[],"title":"【📠期貨趨勢解碼】油價突破三位數但逼近失控邊緣？若未降溫恐迎來全球動盪？","htmlText":"各位小虎們大家好呀！今天一開盤，WTI原油期貨和布油主連期貨價格直接突破100美元大關，盤中升幅一度超過29%，截至目前，WTI原油期貨升幅回落至13%左右，布油現金主連回落至16%左右。[Cool]主要的原因不需要期貨茄哩虎多講，還是因為美伊戰爭導致，同時沒有任何跡象表明戰況會有所緩解，而此前伊朗則表示不會退縮，美國總統特朗普則表示美國將考慮針對伊朗境內未針對的地區和人羣進行襲擊，「襲擊將持續到他們投降，更有可能是完全崩潰！」他講道。[OMG]大家別忘了，阿聯酋、伊拉克、科威特等產油國已經開始減少石油產量，油輪不斷避開霍爾木茲海峽，這就導致全球石油市場「亂上加亂」！而對於市場、散戶、分析師和交易員來說，戰爭正將油價推向新的高點以及臨界點！有分析師更表示，只要中斷每增加一天，壓力就會增加，短期內價格實際上「沒有上限」！[Facepalm]那麼本期期貨趨勢解碼，茄哩虎邀請到了兩位分析師——Ivan和Dream，來看看他們是如何看待當前以及未來的油市行情吧~~~[Sly]WTI原油主連期貨價格一度狂飆29%布油現金主連也突破三位數Ivan：警惕局面突然反轉的風險！在美以斬首伊朗關鍵人物的行動後，原本的劇本是打算扶植伊朗中的親美首領，這樣既達到美國的利益，同時又令金融市場的影響最小化，委內瑞拉就是該劇本的成功例子。[Onlooker]但過去一週我們發現，伊朗事件並未如美國設想的劇本進行，伊朗新領導人可能仍是非親美派，同時封鎖霍爾木茲海峽對特朗普是致命的！更重要的是，在臨近的中期選舉前，如果油價未能快速平息，那麼特朗普所在的共和黨可能會丟失議席，使特朗普後半段的執政時間難有作為。而就目前形勢來說，海峽解封恐怕仍需要一些時間，所以金融市場已經提前交易經濟的滯脹風險。[Eye] <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$標普500(.SPX)$&lt;/</a>","listText":"各位小虎們大家好呀！今天一開盤，WTI原油期貨和布油主連期貨價格直接突破100美元大關，盤中升幅一度超過29%，截至目前，WTI原油期貨升幅回落至13%左右，布油現金主連回落至16%左右。[Cool]主要的原因不需要期貨茄哩虎多講，還是因為美伊戰爭導致，同時沒有任何跡象表明戰況會有所緩解，而此前伊朗則表示不會退縮，美國總統特朗普則表示美國將考慮針對伊朗境內未針對的地區和人羣進行襲擊，「襲擊將持續到他們投降，更有可能是完全崩潰！」他講道。[OMG]大家別忘了，阿聯酋、伊拉克、科威特等產油國已經開始減少石油產量，油輪不斷避開霍爾木茲海峽，這就導致全球石油市場「亂上加亂」！而對於市場、散戶、分析師和交易員來說，戰爭正將油價推向新的高點以及臨界點！有分析師更表示，只要中斷每增加一天，壓力就會增加，短期內價格實際上「沒有上限」！[Facepalm]那麼本期期貨趨勢解碼，茄哩虎邀請到了兩位分析師——Ivan和Dream，來看看他們是如何看待當前以及未來的油市行情吧~~~[Sly]WTI原油主連期貨價格一度狂飆29%布油現金主連也突破三位數Ivan：警惕局面突然反轉的風險！在美以斬首伊朗關鍵人物的行動後，原本的劇本是打算扶植伊朗中的親美首領，這樣既達到美國的利益，同時又令金融市場的影響最小化，委內瑞拉就是該劇本的成功例子。[Onlooker]但過去一週我們發現，伊朗事件並未如美國設想的劇本進行，伊朗新領導人可能仍是非親美派，同時封鎖霍爾木茲海峽對特朗普是致命的！更重要的是，在臨近的中期選舉前，如果油價未能快速平息，那麼特朗普所在的共和黨可能會丟失議席，使特朗普後半段的執政時間難有作為。而就目前形勢來說，海峽解封恐怕仍需要一些時間，所以金融市場已經提前交易經濟的滯脹風險。[Eye] <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$標普500(.SPX)$&lt;/</a>","text":"各位小虎們大家好呀！今天一開盤，WTI原油期貨和布油主連期貨價格直接突破100美元大關，盤中升幅一度超過29%，截至目前，WTI原油期貨升幅回落至13%左右，布油現金主連回落至16%左右。[Cool]主要的原因不需要期貨茄哩虎多講，還是因為美伊戰爭導致，同時沒有任何跡象表明戰況會有所緩解，而此前伊朗則表示不會退縮，美國總統特朗普則表示美國將考慮針對伊朗境內未針對的地區和人羣進行襲擊，「襲擊將持續到他們投降，更有可能是完全崩潰！」他講道。[OMG]大家別忘了，阿聯酋、伊拉克、科威特等產油國已經開始減少石油產量，油輪不斷避開霍爾木茲海峽，這就導致全球石油市場「亂上加亂」！而對於市場、散戶、分析師和交易員來說，戰爭正將油價推向新的高點以及臨界點！有分析師更表示，只要中斷每增加一天，壓力就會增加，短期內價格實際上「沒有上限」！[Facepalm]那麼本期期貨趨勢解碼，茄哩虎邀請到了兩位分析師——Ivan和Dream，來看看他們是如何看待當前以及未來的油市行情吧~~~[Sly]WTI原油主連期貨價格一度狂飆29%布油現金主連也突破三位數Ivan：警惕局面突然反轉的風險！在美以斬首伊朗關鍵人物的行動後，原本的劇本是打算扶植伊朗中的親美首領，這樣既達到美國的利益，同時又令金融市場的影響最小化，委內瑞拉就是該劇本的成功例子。[Onlooker]但過去一週我們發現，伊朗事件並未如美國設想的劇本進行，伊朗新領導人可能仍是非親美派，同時封鎖霍爾木茲海峽對特朗普是致命的！更重要的是，在臨近的中期選舉前，如果油價未能快速平息，那麼特朗普所在的共和黨可能會丟失議席，使特朗普後半段的執政時間難有作為。而就目前形勢來說，海峽解封恐怕仍需要一些時間，所以金融市場已經提前交易經濟的滯脹風險。[Eye] $標普500(.SPX)$</","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c330b2f08a30ce0ea8ecab712a484d2a"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1f952dc667cb9b1a1045e1b10cabc3b"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/687067e88e371938ca6724270443104d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/540763096150216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539948783523096,"gmtCreate":1772845002663,"gmtModify":1772845005702,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tgt","listText":"tgt","text":"tgt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/539948783523096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539948306752168,"gmtCreate":1772844992643,"gmtModify":1772844996578,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"goog","listText":"goog","text":"goog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/539948306752168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539948142118072,"gmtCreate":1772844966354,"gmtModify":1772844969587,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"brc","listText":"brc","text":"brc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/539948142118072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}