$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Momentum Interruptions. Momentum has been the market's best friend from November through year end. This is being subtly interrupted. In the lower panel of the chart is the Percentage Price Oscillator. This oscillator offers a quick insight into trend momentum. The red dots within the panel signify negative crossover events, a slowdown in momentum. In my analysis, momentum interruption occurs when the initial negative crossover is not succeeded by a corrective price move. Instead, price continues to climb with successive negative crossovers, creating a pattern of interruptions. Based on my observations, the decline that follows such an interruption cycle tends to erase most of the earlier advance. Previous instances ar

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Momentum reversed on a dime through last week with the index breaking above 4600 and hitting 2023 highs alongside the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones marked new all-time highs. Breadth is the best the market has seen over the last two years. I'm cautious here. It has been well shared that retail participants have jumped in with both feet. The "Everyone Is In The Pool" feeling. Sentiment remains in greed, and most technical measures are stretched into key resistance zones. The breakout last week quickly reversed the negative crossover in the Price Percentage Oscillator (lower panel). This oscillator offers insight into trend momentum. To add probability to a local top I am keeping watch for signs of momentum fatigue with success

Similar to January 16 the market today recorded negative breadth today across NYSE and Nasdaq markets— more stocks made new lows vs new highs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ If the S&P 500 trades below 4850 while breadth remains negative it spells an imminent decline. Both conditions (1) negative breadth and (2) loss of the short term moving average are needed for decline risk to elevate. January 16 was 1 of 2 and breadth flipped positive the next day. A thought to keep in mind throughout the week.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$HSI(HSI)$ thoughts: $Alibaba(BABA)$ and $TENCENT(00700)$ are titans in the Asian markets. Both have progressed through a 70-80% decline from their 2020/2021 peaks. Today both charts show a loose year long pattern of consolidation where the upper resistance boundary is near the long duration moving average (200-day). Given this setup, I find the risk to reward here as favorable and have established initial positions in both.ImageImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

Wow. Largest inflow ever to $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ever. In past 72 hours I have observed the chart below, another showing record retail inflow, retail confidence at highs, progressing through a month of greed on the back of the best November since 1980. Breadth has been phenomenal relative to the last two years. Santa spirit is at all time highs. Considering the above— it is likely everyone has felt some benefit from this past two month. Small caps remarkable outperformance saving many late index participants, bonds outperforming the S&P 500 from the October low, even the bitcoin crowd has sense of euphoria into year end. Again— it feels like everyone is in the equity pool again, and much faster than the last time. The bull trade ta

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ market thoughts visualized:I maintain the outlook where a healthy correction returning the index to 4500 - 4600 sets the stage for a breakout advance into new all time highs. 5000 on the index I think will be filled with a similar euphoria as when a penny stock crosses 0.50 for the first time, leading to an accelerated advance.Predicting the exact peak is purely speculative, I've marked a high of 5300. The core analysis of breadth, momentum, sentiment and positioning will aid in assessing the probability for a top. I hold the thought that the market peak will align closely with the highly anticipated Fed pivot. For now, the market odds are pointing towards March. I'm indifferent here, it happens when it happens.From there a wel

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I like to think that the most effective corrections often involve a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks) a relief rally that progresses towards the range of 5050 - 5150 would have this effect.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The

S&P 500 thoughts: Don't get lost in the fear. The market is fearful and on the way to bottom the narrative will be filled with reasons why it shouldn't stop. Active fund managers have clients positioned with the least exposure since the October 2022 low. Fear has undeniably set it. The chart of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ marks the relative lows of both the CNN Fear & Greed Index, and the NAAIM Exposure Index. Extreme fear and minimal exposure is a combination that has preceded all meaningful advances. I remain an advocate for the 3950 - 4100 area as a candidate for a correction base. This is a range for my portfolio to buy fear.ImageFollow me to learn more abou

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Market breadth ended the week positive for the first time in over two months. This is a positive development for participants who support the correction being already concluded. Market breadth is shown in the lower panel by Net New Highs representing the number of stocks making new highs minus the number of stocks making new lows across NYSE and Nasdaq markets. In prior posts I have highlighted the current correction sharing distinct similarities with the severe corrections that occurred through 2022, including the tendency for relief rallies to encounter resistance at the short & medium moving averages, and the persistently negative breadth. On the way to developing a bottom in 2022, the S&P 500 progressed th

My thought remains that the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ will correct the November through January rally with price declining towards 4500 - 4600, I don't think much of market will avoid the red paintbrush, including small caps, ARKK-like equities and the '2020-growth' cohort.With that, $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ is approaching my level of interest between 40 - 45. Following a healthy corrective move in the broader indices I am speculating another round of outperformance from this group.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thought: The relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts repeated: “the most effective corrections have a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems very well underway Stalling in the 5000-5150 range is what I am looking for to validate this thought3.Last week the S&P 500 was do

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Three criteria set the stage in my analysis for determining the market environment as risk-on or risk-off. 1. Price relative to the short term trend (20-day exp) 2. Breath, represented by Net New Highs across NYSE & Nasdaq markets 3. Momentum using the Percentage Price Oscillator When price falls below the short term trend, breadth turns negative, and momentum slows the market conditions quickly shift to risk-ff, making a decline the next most probable market move. The most recent event was on April 10, a quick and moderate 4% decline followed. At the end of last week, one of three risk off criteria was active. Ending Thursday this was 2/3, however Friday's rally prevented a full set of risk-off signals to trigger

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closes October -2.2% and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -2%. This correction still looks and feels similar to the severe corrections that occurred in 2022. Relief rallies find rejection at the moving averages, and breadth remains consistently negative. This is in the lower panel of the chart. Next week is 9 consecutive weeks of negative market breadth. The "below the surface" part of the market has been detonated. So long as price remains below and rejected by this short term moving average I do not think the correction has concluded and favour the 3950 - 4100 range for correction bottom. This remains the range I will like to take long exposure.Image $Unit

The headlines: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallies for 8th consecutive day Under the surface: market breadth posted negative again today and the S&P 500 for a 10th attempt has failed to break above 4400 - 4330. My observation is that the better market advances over the last two years which have sustained for more than a few days were built on positive breadth. The recent rally does not share this trait. This current market advance I think unravels quickly if breadth fails to improve.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1722390277418283505

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I think the market gains from the beginning of the year, along with a portion from last year will be erased in the next corrective move. To add some probability to this thought I am watching for a concluding momentum interruption. In the lower panel is the PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator) used to measure trend momentum. In my analysis momentum interruptions occur when the initial negative crossover (red dots in the lower panel) is not followed by a corrective move, instead price continues to advance with multiple interruptions before a decline materializes. I speculate that the final interruption cycle will follow a path similar to those observed in the past. Two previous instances of interruption cycles are highligh