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.SPX: There is significant psychological support at 6000

$.SPX(.SPX)$ thoughts: the index remains above its short term moving average (6023)— breadth as measured by net new highs across NYSE and Nasdaq markets has been negative for three consecutive sessions, and momentum is pointing downward. There is significant psychological support at 6000. In the scenario where pride trades below 6000, breadth is negative and momentum pointing down— I will take defensive position. Otherwise I remain positioned for melt-up trade via ARKK, and a handful of other small cap US equities. Outside of the US equities I remain a bull participant in Chinese equities like $Alibaba(BABA)$ and $TENCENT(00700)$ . I view the most recent decline
.SPX: There is significant psychological support at 6000

.SPX:What's Going on in 2024?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Momentum Interruptions. Momentum has been the market's best friend from November through year end. This is being subtly interrupted. In the lower panel of the chart is the Percentage Price Oscillator. This oscillator offers a quick insight into trend momentum. The red dots within the panel signify negative crossover events, a slowdown in momentum. In my analysis, momentum interruption occurs when the initial negative crossover is not succeeded by a corrective price move. Instead, price continues to climb with successive negative crossovers, creating a pattern of interruptions. Based on my observations, the decline that follows such an interruption cycle tends to erase most of the earlier advance. Previous instances ar
.SPX:What's Going on in 2024?
avatartomthetrader1
2023-12-18

.SPX: What's Going on Next?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Momentum reversed on a dime through last week with the index breaking above 4600 and hitting 2023 highs alongside the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones marked new all-time highs. Breadth is the best the market has seen over the last two years. I'm cautious here. It has been well shared that retail participants have jumped in with both feet. The "Everyone Is In The Pool" feeling. Sentiment remains in greed, and most technical measures are stretched into key resistance zones. The breakout last week quickly reversed the negative crossover in the Price Percentage Oscillator (lower panel). This oscillator offers insight into trend momentum. To add probability to a local top I am keeping watch for signs of momentum fatigue with success
.SPX: What's Going on Next?

Technical Analysis for .SPX

Similar to January 16 the market today recorded negative breadth today across NYSE and Nasdaq markets— more stocks made new lows vs new highs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ If the S&P 500 trades below 4850 while breadth remains negative it spells an imminent decline. Both conditions (1) negative breadth and (2) loss of the short term moving average are needed for decline risk to elevate. January 16 was 1 of 2 and breadth flipped positive the next day. A thought to keep in mind throughout the week.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
Technical Analysis for .SPX
avatartomthetrader1
2023-10-31

Analysis on .SPX

At the surface of the market the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ all rallied > 1% meanwhile breadth remains nothing short of horrible. Many more stocks made new lows today. Rallies like today are not the type to get me excited. My speculation remains that the 3950-4100 range will build out a correction base. The larger surprise from weekend thread is the volume of comments pointing towards 3950 not being “low enough”. The lower boundary of the range is an additional 5% — plenty of room for fear to lose participants.ImageImageImageFollow me to learn more about analysis !!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
Analysis on .SPX

HSI: What's Going on Next?

$HSI(HSI)$ thoughts: $Alibaba(BABA)$ and $TENCENT(00700)$ are titans in the Asian markets. Both have progressed through a 70-80% decline from their 2020/2021 peaks. Today both charts show a loose year long pattern of consolidation where the upper resistance boundary is near the long duration moving average (200-day). Given this setup, I find the risk to reward here as favorable and have established initial positions in both.ImageImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
HSI: What's Going on Next?
avatartomthetrader1
2023-12-20

Technical Analysis on SPY

Wow. Largest inflow ever to $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ever. In past 72 hours I have observed the chart below, another showing record retail inflow, retail confidence at highs, progressing through a month of greed on the back of the best November since 1980. Breadth has been phenomenal relative to the last two years. Santa spirit is at all time highs. Considering the above— it is likely everyone has felt some benefit from this past two month. Small caps remarkable outperformance saving many late index participants, bonds outperforming the S&P 500 from the October low, even the bitcoin crowd has sense of euphoria into year end. Again— it feels like everyone is in the equity pool again, and much faster than the last time. The bull trade ta
Technical Analysis on SPY

.SPX: What's Going on Next?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ market thoughts visualized:I maintain the outlook where a healthy correction returning the index to 4500 - 4600 sets the stage for a breakout advance into new all time highs. 5000 on the index I think will be filled with a similar euphoria as when a penny stock crosses 0.50 for the first time, leading to an accelerated advance.Predicting the exact peak is purely speculative, I've marked a high of 5300. The core analysis of breadth, momentum, sentiment and positioning will aid in assessing the probability for a top. I hold the thought that the market peak will align closely with the highly anticipated Fed pivot. For now, the market odds are pointing towards March. I'm indifferent here, it happens when it happens.From there a wel
.SPX: What's Going on Next?

.SPX: What's Going on Next?

Similar to January 16 & February 5 the market today recorded negative breadth today across NYSE and Nasdaq markets— more stocks made new lows vs new highs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ If the S&P 500 trades below 4915 while breadth remains negative it spells an imminent decline. Both conditions (1) negative breadth and (2) loss of the short term moving average are needed for decline risk to elevate. Both Jan 16 & Feb 5 was 1 of 2 and breadth flipped positive the next day. A thought to keep in mind for the rest of the week.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
.SPX: What's Going on Next?

.SPX: What's Going on Next?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I like to think that the most effective corrections often involve a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks) a relief rally that progresses towards the range of 5050 - 5150 would have this effect.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
.SPX: What's Going on Next?

Technical Analysis on .SPX

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The
Technical Analysis on .SPX
avatartomthetrader1
2023-10-30

S&P 500 thoughts: Don't get lost in the fear!

S&P 500 thoughts: Don't get lost in the fear. The market is fearful and on the way to bottom the narrative will be filled with reasons why it shouldn't stop. Active fund managers have clients positioned with the least exposure since the October 2022 low. Fear has undeniably set it. The chart of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ marks the relative lows of both the CNN Fear & Greed Index, and the NAAIM Exposure Index. Extreme fear and minimal exposure is a combination that has preceded all meaningful advances. I remain an advocate for the 3950 - 4100 area as a candidate for a correction base. This is a range for my portfolio to buy fear.ImageFollow me to learn more abou
S&P 500 thoughts: Don't get lost in the fear!
avatartomthetrader1
2023-11-06

.SPX Thoughts: What's Going on Next?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Market breadth ended the week positive for the first time in over two months. This is a positive development for participants who support the correction being already concluded. Market breadth is shown in the lower panel by Net New Highs representing the number of stocks making new highs minus the number of stocks making new lows across NYSE and Nasdaq markets. In prior posts I have highlighted the current correction sharing distinct similarities with the severe corrections that occurred through 2022, including the tendency for relief rallies to encounter resistance at the short & medium moving averages, and the persistently negative breadth. On the way to developing a bottom in 2022, the S&P 500 progressed th
.SPX Thoughts: What's Going on Next?

Technical Analysis for .SPX

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Breath closed negative today— and small caps continue to distance themselves from breakout. Stand-alone this is insufficient, but it is a start. From here, this is not looking like a melt-up scenario. At this rate another risk-off scenario will transpire should breadth keep negative and the index close below 4245. In that scenario I will have no heartache returning with a bearish outlook and positioning.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1
Technical Analysis for .SPX

.SPX: What's Going on?

My thought remains that the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ will correct the November through January rally with price declining towards 4500 - 4600, I don't think much of market will avoid the red paintbrush, including small caps, ARKK-like equities and the '2020-growth' cohort.With that, $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ is approaching my level of interest between 40 - 45. Following a healthy corrective move in the broader indices I am speculating another round of outperformance from this group.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
.SPX: What's Going on?

.SPX: What's Going on Next?

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thought: The relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts repeated: “the most effective corrections have a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems very well underway Stalling in the 5000-5150 range is what I am looking for to validate this thought3.Last week the S&P 500 was do
.SPX: What's Going on Next?

Technical Analysis for .SPX

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Three criteria set the stage in my analysis for determining the market environment as risk-on or risk-off. 1. Price relative to the short term trend (20-day exp) 2. Breath, represented by Net New Highs across NYSE & Nasdaq markets 3. Momentum using the Percentage Price Oscillator When price falls below the short term trend, breadth turns negative, and momentum slows the market conditions quickly shift to risk-ff, making a decline the next most probable market move. The most recent event was on April 10, a quick and moderate 4% decline followed. At the end of last week, one of three risk off criteria was active. Ending Thursday this was 2/3, however Friday's rally prevented a full set of risk-off signals to trigger
Technical Analysis for .SPX
avatartomthetrader1
2023-11-01

Technical Analysis on .SPX& U

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closes October -2.2% and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -2%. This correction still looks and feels similar to the severe corrections that occurred in 2022. Relief rallies find rejection at the moving averages, and breadth remains consistently negative. This is in the lower panel of the chart. Next week is 9 consecutive weeks of negative market breadth. The "below the surface" part of the market has been detonated. So long as price remains below and rejected by this short term moving average I do not think the correction has concluded and favour the 3950 - 4100 range for correction bottom. This remains the range I will like to take long exposure.Image $Unit
Technical Analysis on .SPX& U

Technical Analysis on .SPX

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A wonderful 2% decline throughout the week so far, and now nearly 5% off the all time highs. The correction criteria have worked well in signalling risk in advance. I am pleased with this analysis. As we head into the weekend the index sits at a psychological 5000 level of support. While it is not necessary, the best corrections include a stage where most participants are convinced it has concluded. A rally here towards 5150 I think would do exactly that.Follow me to learn more about anlaysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1781089499696783779
Technical Analysis on .SPX
avatartomthetrader1
2023-11-09

.SPX Rallies for 8th Consecutive Day

The headlines: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallies for 8th consecutive day Under the surface: market breadth posted negative again today and the S&P 500 for a 10th attempt has failed to break above 4400 - 4330. My observation is that the better market advances over the last two years which have sustained for more than a few days were built on positive breadth. The recent rally does not share this trait. This current market advance I think unravels quickly if breadth fails to improve.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1722390277418283505
.SPX Rallies for 8th Consecutive Day

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