BeingLucid personal page - To The Moon

BeingLucid

No personal profile

5Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

07-12

Just buy every week as usual.

03-31

Up and Down

03-31

Up and down.

03-31

P&L Calendar

03-31

I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.

03-29

I am very pleased. I have put in small but regular contributions totalling $550. I received the sign up bonus of $30, and an additional $200 for four friends signing up. And I have unrealised profits of around $70. I know it won't always be this good, but it's a wonderful start! My main goal is to keep up the regular deposits.

03-16

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.

03-09

I'm sharing this on Reddit

03-01

Up she goes! March into March for the win!

02-28

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$

02-28

I am watching $SOUN$

02-28

Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE

02-28

I would set up an account at vets in New Zealand, where anyone can go in and get their pet desexed and microchipped free of charge.

02-27

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$

02-27

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Let's go.

02-27

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$

02-27

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$

02-27

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Having a wee run today.

02-24

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.

02-23

$782.53

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4169783945382972","uuid":"4169783945382972","gmtCreate":1706680938531,"gmtModify":1706685221548,"name":"BeingLucid","pinyin":"beinglucid","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":5,"tweetSize":30,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":1,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":326703516373072,"gmtCreate":1720795080705,"gmtModify":1720795100009,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just buy every week as usual.","listText":"Just buy every week as usual.","text":"Just buy every week as usual.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326703516373072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290169583407280,"gmtCreate":1711848728689,"gmtModify":1711848732734,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up and Down","listText":"Up and Down","text":"Up and Down","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ddf97914a15269f15058c91dca04175"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290169583407280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290169185984776,"gmtCreate":1711848632436,"gmtModify":1711848636947,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up and down.","listText":"Up and down.","text":"Up and down.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de2adead3f8c648eb4bd205bd3d76d94"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290169185984776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290168819474448,"gmtCreate":1711848566803,"gmtModify":1711848571617,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"P&amp;L Calendar&nbsp;","listText":"P&amp;L Calendar&nbsp;","text":"P&L Calendar","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6adc90f67120428f94e8dbe038adddc4","width":"590","height":"963"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290168819474448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290166956495096,"gmtCreate":1711848187481,"gmtModify":1711848192766,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.","listText":"I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.","text":"I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290166956495096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":289254352539880,"gmtCreate":1711653348183,"gmtModify":1711653353392,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am very pleased. I have put in small but regular contributions totalling $550. I received the sign up bonus of $30, and an additional $200 for four friends signing up. And I have unrealised profits of around $70. I know it won't always be this good, but it's a wonderful start! My main goal is to keep up the regular deposits.","listText":"I am very pleased. I have put in small but regular contributions totalling $550. I received the sign up bonus of $30, and an additional $200 for four friends signing up. And I have unrealised profits of around $70. I know it won't always be this good, but it's a wonderful start! My main goal is to keep up the regular deposits.","text":"I am very pleased. I have put in small but regular contributions totalling $550. I received the sign up bonus of $30, and an additional $200 for four friends signing up. And I have unrealised profits of around $70. I know it won't always be this good, but it's a wonderful start! My main goal is to keep up the regular deposits.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/289254352539880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284795682103424,"gmtCreate":1710536281537,"gmtModify":1710536285301,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284795682103424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282261856563320,"gmtCreate":1709919889054,"gmtModify":1709919893120,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm sharing this on Reddit","listText":"I'm sharing this on Reddit","text":"I'm sharing this on Reddit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282261856563320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":279388414976288,"gmtCreate":1709231528860,"gmtModify":1709231533504,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up she goes! March into March for the win!","listText":"Up she goes! March into March for the win!","text":"Up she goes! March into March for the win!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/279388414976288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278827034177536,"gmtCreate":1709100627043,"gmtModify":1709100629907,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef04e5cd5150ae0c5a2ffd18e568ddac","width":"604","height":"939"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278827034177536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278789570130072,"gmtCreate":1709091492941,"gmtModify":1709091497378,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am watching&nbsp;$SOUN$&nbsp;","listText":"I am watching&nbsp;$SOUN$&nbsp;","text":"I am watching $SOUN$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278789570130072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278788099514400,"gmtCreate":1709091126859,"gmtModify":1709091854384,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and&nbsp;bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE","listText":"Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and&nbsp;bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE","text":"Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278788099514400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278785084350624,"gmtCreate":1709090536254,"gmtModify":1709090541233,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I would set up an account at vets in New Zealand, where anyone can go in and get their pet desexed and microchipped free of charge.","listText":"I would set up an account at vets in New Zealand, where anyone can go in and get their pet desexed and microchipped free of charge.","text":"I would set up an account at vets in New Zealand, where anyone can go in and get their pet desexed and microchipped free of charge.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278785084350624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278389405991072,"gmtCreate":1708993935091,"gmtModify":1708993937195,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b78940a441cc2563075af6188bf05679","width":"720","height":"1134"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278389405991072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278388898337032,"gmtCreate":1708993844547,"gmtModify":1708993848562,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> Let's go.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> Let's go.","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Let's go.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a8f968981b91ed1bb826ba511b685c7","width":"720","height":"1134"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278388898337032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278388863500400,"gmtCreate":1708993794979,"gmtModify":1708993796516,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9a74f403c69d3bd71dfcbc2943f340c","width":"720","height":"1256"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278388863500400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278388793757856,"gmtCreate":1708993785621,"gmtModify":1708993788463,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9a74f403c69d3bd71dfcbc2943f340c","width":"720","height":"1256"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278388793757856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278326299123864,"gmtCreate":1708978389669,"gmtModify":1708978393178,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> Having a wee run today.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> Having a wee run today.","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Having a wee run today.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5780fdfbf95f9ca260c9712f0efd154","width":"720","height":"1070"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278326299123864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":277225679282192,"gmtCreate":1708708046776,"gmtModify":1708708049380,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ </a> This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ </a> This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.","text":"$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/277225679282192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276882790613032,"gmtCreate":1708624335527,"gmtModify":1708624339708,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$782.53","listText":"$782.53","text":"$782.53","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276882790613032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":275703391051856,"gmtCreate":1708333221927,"gmtModify":1708333226118,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/275703391051856","repostId":"2412996033","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274934342373496,"gmtCreate":1708160425741,"gmtModify":1708160430913,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"My achievement is having the courage to open a Tiger Account and begin investing in the share market for the first time. I intend to make regular twice-monthly contributions and see how I go. how do I get a Tiger t-shirt? lol","listText":"My achievement is having the courage to open a Tiger Account and begin investing in the share market for the first time. I intend to make regular twice-monthly contributions and see how I go. how do I get a Tiger t-shirt? lol","text":"My achievement is having the courage to open a Tiger Account and begin investing in the share market for the first time. I intend to make regular twice-monthly contributions and see how I go. how do I get a Tiger t-shirt? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274934342373496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274964630589552,"gmtCreate":1708167818340,"gmtModify":1708167823137,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good. I picked GOOG, AMD, and VOO for my entry into investing. Mostly VOO with a little of each of the other two. I'm taking it slow for now because I have never invested in shares before, so I'm still learning.","listText":"Good. I picked GOOG, AMD, and VOO for my entry into investing. Mostly VOO with a little of each of the other two. I'm taking it slow for now because I have never invested in shares before, so I'm still learning.","text":"Good. I picked GOOG, AMD, and VOO for my entry into investing. Mostly VOO with a little of each of the other two. I'm taking it slow for now because I have never invested in shares before, so I'm still learning.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274964630589552","repostId":"2412732896","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2412732896","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1708165894,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2412732896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-17 18:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Alphabet Is the Best AI Stock to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2412732896","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's easy to get caught up in the latest hype, but investors shouldn't ignore a longtime leader in AI.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Alphabet has been working on AI for more than two decades.</p></li><li><p>The business has a massive data advantage that other businesses can&#39;t compete with.</p></li><li><p>Shares are reasonably valued right now.</p></li></ul><p>The possibility of interest rate cuts and ongoing inflationary pressures might draw investor attention. But nothing beats the excitement around artificial intelligence (AI). This has undoubtedly been the top market topic in the last year or so.</p><p>With shares soaring 404% since the start of 2023, Nvidia looks like it&#39;s the poster child of the AI boom. Thanks to its position as an infrastructure provider, investors probably view the business as the best way to play the trend.</p><p>But don&#39;t forget about the tech behemoth that is Alphabet. I think this top internet enterprise is the best AI stock to buy right now. Here&#39;s why.</p><h2 id=\"id_907043003\">Doing AI for a long time</h2><p>The release of OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT in late 2022 revitalized the discussion around AI and its potential to impact many different industries. This spurred companies to figure out ways to incorporate the technology into their own operations, hoping investors would reward this new focus.</p><p>However, it shouldn&#39;t come as a shock to anyone that Alphabet has long been prioritizing AI advancements. The company&#39;s top segment, Google Search, started using machine learning and AI capabilities as far back as 2001 to help users improve spelling when making search queries. There&#39;s no doubt that this focus helped make Alphabet the dominant company that it is today.</p><p>Google Search is arguably the single most important internet-based service in the world, mainly because it has become a gateway for users to find information. And its success is still critical to Alphabet today, as Search raked in $48 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing 56% of the company&#39;s total.</p><p>CEO Sundar Pichai claimed in a 2016 blog post that Alphabet was no longer a mobile-first enterprise, but &#34;AI-first&#34; from that point forward. This meant creating &#34;a world where computing becomes universally available.&#34;</p><p>I&#39;d say the business has been successful in this regard. Many of Alphabet&#39;s products already incorporate AI. Gmail uses AI not only to help with spell check, but by also reducing spam. Google Cloud continues to integrate AI functionality into the various tools it offers clients, so that they can benefit from this revolutionary technology. And -- what I believe is an extremely neat feature -- Google Photos allows users to find an image they&#39;re looking for by searching what&#39;s in the picture. These are just a few examples.</p><h2 id=\"id_2381801805\">Alphabet&#39;s advantage</h2><p>Ten years from now, I have a lot of confidence that Alphabet will not only remain a leader in AI, but that it could also separate itself from other top companies in the space. It all has to do with Alphabet&#39;s data advantage.</p><p>Fifteen of the company&#39;s products and services are used by more than 500 million people across the globe. In fact, google.com and youtube.com are the two most visited websites on the planet. Consequently, I&#39;d be surprised if there&#39;s another business that collects more data than Alphabet.</p><p>And this means the company can constantly train its AI systems to improve. This leads to a positive feedback loop where more data means better AI models, which results in improved customer experiences and greater usage, leading to even more data collection. That&#39;s a powerful advantage for Alphabet.</p><p>It&#39;s probably no wonder that the company&#39;s latest generative AI model, Gemini, beats ChatGPT in numerous performance areas.</p><h2 id=\"id_1936880016\">Looking at valuation</h2><p>Besides the topic of AI, Alphabet makes for a smart investment because its shares are attractively priced. The FAANG stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 25.6.</p><p>Nvidia, on the other hand, sells for a P/E ratio of 97.2. To be fair, the chipmaker is registering monster growth. But it looks like investors are pricing in the belief that growth at this rate can go on indefinitely. And this won&#39;t be the case.</p><p>This makes Alphabet the best AI stock to buy right now, in my opinion.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Alphabet Is the Best AI Stock to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Alphabet Is the Best AI Stock to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-17 18:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/17/why-alphabet-best-ai-stock-to-buy-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alphabet has been working on AI for more than two decades.The business has a massive data advantage that other businesses can't compete with.Shares are reasonably valued right now.The possibility of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/17/why-alphabet-best-ai-stock-to-buy-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4514":"搜索引擎","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/17/why-alphabet-best-ai-stock-to-buy-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2412732896","content_text":"Alphabet has been working on AI for more than two decades.The business has a massive data advantage that other businesses can't compete with.Shares are reasonably valued right now.The possibility of interest rate cuts and ongoing inflationary pressures might draw investor attention. But nothing beats the excitement around artificial intelligence (AI). This has undoubtedly been the top market topic in the last year or so.With shares soaring 404% since the start of 2023, Nvidia looks like it's the poster child of the AI boom. Thanks to its position as an infrastructure provider, investors probably view the business as the best way to play the trend.But don't forget about the tech behemoth that is Alphabet. I think this top internet enterprise is the best AI stock to buy right now. Here's why.Doing AI for a long timeThe release of OpenAI's ChatGPT in late 2022 revitalized the discussion around AI and its potential to impact many different industries. This spurred companies to figure out ways to incorporate the technology into their own operations, hoping investors would reward this new focus.However, it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that Alphabet has long been prioritizing AI advancements. The company's top segment, Google Search, started using machine learning and AI capabilities as far back as 2001 to help users improve spelling when making search queries. There's no doubt that this focus helped make Alphabet the dominant company that it is today.Google Search is arguably the single most important internet-based service in the world, mainly because it has become a gateway for users to find information. And its success is still critical to Alphabet today, as Search raked in $48 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing 56% of the company's total.CEO Sundar Pichai claimed in a 2016 blog post that Alphabet was no longer a mobile-first enterprise, but \"AI-first\" from that point forward. This meant creating \"a world where computing becomes universally available.\"I'd say the business has been successful in this regard. Many of Alphabet's products already incorporate AI. Gmail uses AI not only to help with spell check, but by also reducing spam. Google Cloud continues to integrate AI functionality into the various tools it offers clients, so that they can benefit from this revolutionary technology. And -- what I believe is an extremely neat feature -- Google Photos allows users to find an image they're looking for by searching what's in the picture. These are just a few examples.Alphabet's advantageTen years from now, I have a lot of confidence that Alphabet will not only remain a leader in AI, but that it could also separate itself from other top companies in the space. It all has to do with Alphabet's data advantage.Fifteen of the company's products and services are used by more than 500 million people across the globe. In fact, google.com and youtube.com are the two most visited websites on the planet. Consequently, I'd be surprised if there's another business that collects more data than Alphabet.And this means the company can constantly train its AI systems to improve. This leads to a positive feedback loop where more data means better AI models, which results in improved customer experiences and greater usage, leading to even more data collection. That's a powerful advantage for Alphabet.It's probably no wonder that the company's latest generative AI model, Gemini, beats ChatGPT in numerous performance areas.Looking at valuationBesides the topic of AI, Alphabet makes for a smart investment because its shares are attractively priced. The FAANG stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 25.6.Nvidia, on the other hand, sells for a P/E ratio of 97.2. To be fair, the chipmaker is registering monster growth. But it looks like investors are pricing in the belief that growth at this rate can go on indefinitely. And this won't be the case.This makes Alphabet the best AI stock to buy right now, in my opinion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273831413596280,"gmtCreate":1707891156019,"gmtModify":1707891160928,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I don't understand why there are 49 analysts saying Strong Buy, Buy, or Hold. None of the 49 are saying sell. I read that Meta and Tesla and some others are going to buy AMD chips. Is that not encouraging?","listText":"I don't understand why there are 49 analysts saying Strong Buy, Buy, or Hold. None of the 49 are saying sell. I read that Meta and Tesla and some others are going to buy AMD chips. Is that not encouraging?","text":"I don't understand why there are 49 analysts saying Strong Buy, Buy, or Hold. None of the 49 are saying sell. I read that Meta and Tesla and some others are going to buy AMD chips. Is that not encouraging?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273831413596280","repostId":"2411108323","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2411108323","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1707888619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2411108323?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-14 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411108323","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ex","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.</p></li><li><p>The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.</p></li><li><p>The history of AMD&#39;s stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aabf8f669b54b622ae2fb759d2b2316b\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it&#39;s known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.</p><p>A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to &#34;survive the flood,&#34; I&#39;m going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.</p><h2 id=\"id_556213205\">Reverse-Engineering the Valuation</h2><p>The first thing is to unpack is what&#39;s reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it&#39;s one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00d177cd1702da079ab895431c41384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD&#39;s GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it&#39;s selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3eaeebf982d09df3ec2373c95983855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculation</p><p></p><p>If we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.</p><p>Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>, it&#39;s a handy gauge for investors looking for &#34;growth at a reasonable price.&#34; Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren&#39;t standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:</p><blockquote><p>My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I&#39;m wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.</p></blockquote><p>&#34;What that means&#34; is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:</p><blockquote><p>...wonderful companies become risky investments <em>when people overpay</em>, using McDonald&#39;s as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to &#34;live up to these expectations,&#34; the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a &#34;more realistic&#34; 13 times earnings.</p></blockquote><p>McDonald&#39;s is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.</p><p>What&#39;s the impact of AI to AMD&#39;s earnings? We don&#39;t know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.</p><h2 id=\"id_4228085524\">Mystery of AI-Driven Growth</h2><p>The company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.</p><p>What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I&#39;ve seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let&#39;s just observe carefully what it says the abstract:</p><blockquote><p>The AI market covers a <strong>vast number of industries</strong>. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business&#39;s fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.</p><p>I also mentioned McDonald&#39;s above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald&#39;s in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn&#39;t matter whose car you bought.</p><p>Fast food doesn&#39;t care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it&#39;s been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there&#39;s always an element of trial and error that spans years.</p><p>Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn&#39;t occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.</p><h2 id=\"id_1489106187\">History of the Share Price</h2><p>Unlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock&#39;s history. To assist further, here are the prices:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>May 29, 2000: <strong>$45.07</strong></p></li><li><p>Feb. 13, 2006: <strong>$40.33</strong></p></li><li><p>Nov. 22, 2021: <strong>$154.81</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e87029494fe2cf84ad2467f7b91c81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD&#39;s chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.</p><p>With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d60b236bc55a2e60558e8a5c3a74b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today&#39;s peak is only about 4x that of 2000&#39;s, the market cap is more than 20x. Today&#39;s stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000&#39;s price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that&#39;s another major risk that investors are overlooking.</p><h2 id=\"id_3991879825\">The Indirect Capex of SBC</h2><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.</p><p>Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don&#39;t count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dd6ee8d5cb8fd52b4ef0f08e2ad7cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)</p><p></p><p>Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.</p><p>Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it&#39;s a subtle detail that investors should know.</p><p>Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD&#39;s multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.</p><h2 id=\"id_1541592541\">Conclusion</h2><p>The parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn&#39;t save him, and God tells him, &#34;I sent you two boats and a helicopter.&#34;</p><p>In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.</p><p>Folks don&#39;t make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don&#39;t make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it&#39;s wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-14 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","INTC":"英特尔","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","MCD":"麦当劳","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411108323","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.The history of AMD's stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it's known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to \"survive the flood,\" I'm going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.Reverse-Engineering the ValuationThe first thing is to unpack is what's reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it's one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)It's been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD's GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it's selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.Author's calculationIf we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, One Up on Wall Street, it's a handy gauge for investors looking for \"growth at a reasonable price.\" Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren't standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I'm wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.\"What that means\" is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:...wonderful companies become risky investments when people overpay, using McDonald's as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to \"live up to these expectations,\" the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a \"more realistic\" 13 times earnings.McDonald's is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.What's the impact of AI to AMD's earnings? We don't know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.Mystery of AI-Driven GrowthThe company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I've seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let's just observe carefully what it says the abstract:The AI market covers a vast number of industries. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business's fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.I also mentioned McDonald's above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald's in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn't matter whose car you bought.Fast food doesn't care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it's been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there's always an element of trial and error that spans years.Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn't occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.History of the Share PriceUnlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock's history. To assist further, here are the prices:May 29, 2000: $45.07Feb. 13, 2006: $40.33Nov. 22, 2021: $154.81AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD's chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today's peak is only about 4x that of 2000's, the market cap is more than 20x. Today's stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000's price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that's another major risk that investors are overlooking.The Indirect Capex of SBCStock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don't count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it's a subtle detail that investors should know.Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD's multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.ConclusionThe parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn't save him, and God tells him, \"I sent you two boats and a helicopter.\"In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.Folks don't make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don't make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it's wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":270457649627368,"gmtCreate":1707038664772,"gmtModify":1707038906516,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah, I would like some opinions too.","listText":"Yeah, I would like some opinions too.","text":"Yeah, I would like some opinions too.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/270457649627368","repostId":"2408948070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2408948070","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1707021348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2408948070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-04 12:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1987 Stock-Market Crash Has Lessons for Traders Convinced Fed Will Slash Rates in 2024","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2408948070","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fed 'knows the cautionary tale' of 1985-86: DataTrek's Colas. Investors appear to be banking on the Federal Reserve embarking this year on a historically aggressive round of interest rate cuts even as the economy avoids a hard landing.Fed policy makers have seen this movie before and didn't care for the ending, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Tuesday note. Investors may want to review the plot and adjust their expectations.Fed-funds futures traders are pricing in five to six rate cuts of a quarter percentage point each between now and the end of the year, in contrast to the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the \"dot plot,\" which calls for only three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024.Related: Why analysts say the Fed risks clogging the financial plumbing without a policy change. Meanwhile, stocks have returned to all-time highs, with the S&P 500 SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA each logging their sixth record close of 2024 on Monday.M","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>No recession, no problem? Investors appear to be banking on the Federal Reserve embarking this year on a historically aggressive round of interest rate cuts even as the economy avoids a hard landing.</p><p>Fed policy makers have seen this movie before and didn&#39;t care for the ending, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Tuesday note. Investors may want to review the plot and adjust their expectations.</p><p>Fed-funds futures traders are pricing in five to six rate cuts of a quarter percentage point each between now and the end of the year, in contrast to the Fed&#39;s Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the &#34;dot plot,&#34; which calls for only three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024.</p><p>Economists have tied the aggressive rate-cut pricing to expectations the Fed will look to keep real, or inflation-adjusted, rates steady if inflation continues to decline. The Fed is widely expected to leave the fed-funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% when it concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, with the market pricing in a better than 50% chance of a cut by the next meeting in March.</p><p>Meanwhile, stocks have returned to all-time highs, with the S&amp;P 500 SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA each logging their sixth record close of 2024 on Monday.</p><p>DataTrek took a look back at past easing cycles to see how market expectations for a decline of at least 1.25 percentage points over the coming year lined up with past easing cycles. As shown in the chart below, they found only one instance in the last 44 years in which the Fed cut rates by 1.25 percentage points or more within a year when a recession wasn&#39;t under way or seen clearly in the offing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bbd92bbb988cd5a8e7ab6c2f422e4ca\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"265\"/></p><p>It occurred in 1985-86. The Fed had lifted the fed-funds rate to 11.6% in August 1984 before beginning a mid-cycle easing program that took it to 5.9% by October 1986.</p><p>Those cuts added fuel to a stock-market rally, with the S&amp;P 500 up 31% in 1985, up 18% in 1986, and up another 31% through the end of September 1987, Colas noted.</p><p>Students of market history know what happened next. Black Monday - Oct. 19, 1987 - saw the S&amp;P 500 plunge more than 20% in a single day, while the Dow dropped 23%. The S&amp;P 500 ended the fourth quarter of 1987 with a loss of 23%.</p><p>&#34;The Fed knows the cautionary tale of 1985-1986 and, at lower absolute policy rates now, they have even more reason to be cautious about the pace of rate cuts in 2024,&#34; Colas wrote. &#34;Without an imminent recession, there is simply no precedent for +1.0 points of rate cuts this year.&#34;</p><p>Moreover, &#34;stocks are already doing well enough that the risk of sparking an unsustainable rally (a la 1987) is very high indeed,&#34; he wrote.</p><p>Colas acknowledged the possibility that fed-funds futures are &#34;trying to tell us something&#34; about the potential for a recession.</p><p>Indeed, the seeming contradiction between fed-funds and other markets has attracted plenty of attention. Strategists at Deutsche Bank earlier this month noted that the degree of cuts factored in by the market have almost always been accompanied by recession, while the mid-1980s episode came after rates had been hiked into highly restrictive territory as the Paul Volcker-led Fed squeezed inflation into submission.</p><p>Colas, however, doubts the short-term rates market is sending up an economic warning flare.</p><p>Fed-funds futures traders &#34;are likely betting that the Fed will want to become less restrictive as inflation continues to decline,&#34; Colas said. &#34;By the math, that&#39;s fair enough. It does not, however, fit with either the historical data or the Fed&#39;s institutional memory.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1987 Stock-Market Crash Has Lessons for Traders Convinced Fed Will Slash Rates in 2024</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1987 Stock-Market Crash Has Lessons for Traders Convinced Fed Will Slash Rates in 2024\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-02-04 12:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>No recession, no problem? Investors appear to be banking on the Federal Reserve embarking this year on a historically aggressive round of interest rate cuts even as the economy avoids a hard landing.</p><p>Fed policy makers have seen this movie before and didn&#39;t care for the ending, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Tuesday note. Investors may want to review the plot and adjust their expectations.</p><p>Fed-funds futures traders are pricing in five to six rate cuts of a quarter percentage point each between now and the end of the year, in contrast to the Fed&#39;s Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the &#34;dot plot,&#34; which calls for only three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024.</p><p>Economists have tied the aggressive rate-cut pricing to expectations the Fed will look to keep real, or inflation-adjusted, rates steady if inflation continues to decline. The Fed is widely expected to leave the fed-funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% when it concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, with the market pricing in a better than 50% chance of a cut by the next meeting in March.</p><p>Meanwhile, stocks have returned to all-time highs, with the S&amp;P 500 SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA each logging their sixth record close of 2024 on Monday.</p><p>DataTrek took a look back at past easing cycles to see how market expectations for a decline of at least 1.25 percentage points over the coming year lined up with past easing cycles. As shown in the chart below, they found only one instance in the last 44 years in which the Fed cut rates by 1.25 percentage points or more within a year when a recession wasn&#39;t under way or seen clearly in the offing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bbd92bbb988cd5a8e7ab6c2f422e4ca\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"265\"/></p><p>It occurred in 1985-86. The Fed had lifted the fed-funds rate to 11.6% in August 1984 before beginning a mid-cycle easing program that took it to 5.9% by October 1986.</p><p>Those cuts added fuel to a stock-market rally, with the S&amp;P 500 up 31% in 1985, up 18% in 1986, and up another 31% through the end of September 1987, Colas noted.</p><p>Students of market history know what happened next. Black Monday - Oct. 19, 1987 - saw the S&amp;P 500 plunge more than 20% in a single day, while the Dow dropped 23%. The S&amp;P 500 ended the fourth quarter of 1987 with a loss of 23%.</p><p>&#34;The Fed knows the cautionary tale of 1985-1986 and, at lower absolute policy rates now, they have even more reason to be cautious about the pace of rate cuts in 2024,&#34; Colas wrote. &#34;Without an imminent recession, there is simply no precedent for +1.0 points of rate cuts this year.&#34;</p><p>Moreover, &#34;stocks are already doing well enough that the risk of sparking an unsustainable rally (a la 1987) is very high indeed,&#34; he wrote.</p><p>Colas acknowledged the possibility that fed-funds futures are &#34;trying to tell us something&#34; about the potential for a recession.</p><p>Indeed, the seeming contradiction between fed-funds and other markets has attracted plenty of attention. Strategists at Deutsche Bank earlier this month noted that the degree of cuts factored in by the market have almost always been accompanied by recession, while the mid-1980s episode came after rates had been hiked into highly restrictive territory as the Paul Volcker-led Fed squeezed inflation into submission.</p><p>Colas, however, doubts the short-term rates market is sending up an economic warning flare.</p><p>Fed-funds futures traders &#34;are likely betting that the Fed will want to become less restrictive as inflation continues to decline,&#34; Colas said. &#34;By the math, that&#39;s fair enough. It does not, however, fit with either the historical data or the Fed&#39;s institutional memory.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2408948070","content_text":"No recession, no problem? Investors appear to be banking on the Federal Reserve embarking this year on a historically aggressive round of interest rate cuts even as the economy avoids a hard landing.Fed policy makers have seen this movie before and didn't care for the ending, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Tuesday note. Investors may want to review the plot and adjust their expectations.Fed-funds futures traders are pricing in five to six rate cuts of a quarter percentage point each between now and the end of the year, in contrast to the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the \"dot plot,\" which calls for only three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024.Economists have tied the aggressive rate-cut pricing to expectations the Fed will look to keep real, or inflation-adjusted, rates steady if inflation continues to decline. The Fed is widely expected to leave the fed-funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% when it concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, with the market pricing in a better than 50% chance of a cut by the next meeting in March.Meanwhile, stocks have returned to all-time highs, with the S&P 500 SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA each logging their sixth record close of 2024 on Monday.DataTrek took a look back at past easing cycles to see how market expectations for a decline of at least 1.25 percentage points over the coming year lined up with past easing cycles. As shown in the chart below, they found only one instance in the last 44 years in which the Fed cut rates by 1.25 percentage points or more within a year when a recession wasn't under way or seen clearly in the offing.It occurred in 1985-86. The Fed had lifted the fed-funds rate to 11.6% in August 1984 before beginning a mid-cycle easing program that took it to 5.9% by October 1986.Those cuts added fuel to a stock-market rally, with the S&P 500 up 31% in 1985, up 18% in 1986, and up another 31% through the end of September 1987, Colas noted.Students of market history know what happened next. Black Monday - Oct. 19, 1987 - saw the S&P 500 plunge more than 20% in a single day, while the Dow dropped 23%. The S&P 500 ended the fourth quarter of 1987 with a loss of 23%.\"The Fed knows the cautionary tale of 1985-1986 and, at lower absolute policy rates now, they have even more reason to be cautious about the pace of rate cuts in 2024,\" Colas wrote. \"Without an imminent recession, there is simply no precedent for +1.0 points of rate cuts this year.\"Moreover, \"stocks are already doing well enough that the risk of sparking an unsustainable rally (a la 1987) is very high indeed,\" he wrote.Colas acknowledged the possibility that fed-funds futures are \"trying to tell us something\" about the potential for a recession.Indeed, the seeming contradiction between fed-funds and other markets has attracted plenty of attention. Strategists at Deutsche Bank earlier this month noted that the degree of cuts factored in by the market have almost always been accompanied by recession, while the mid-1980s episode came after rates had been hiked into highly restrictive territory as the Paul Volcker-led Fed squeezed inflation into submission.Colas, however, doubts the short-term rates market is sending up an economic warning flare.Fed-funds futures traders \"are likely betting that the Fed will want to become less restrictive as inflation continues to decline,\" Colas said. \"By the math, that's fair enough. It does not, however, fit with either the historical data or the Fed's institutional memory.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284795682103424,"gmtCreate":1710536281537,"gmtModify":1710536285301,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I have no confidence in Tesla in the short term. Long term is another question. They need a major technological advance. Ghat will re-energize their stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284795682103424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274199692009608,"gmtCreate":1707981224059,"gmtModify":1707981228791,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Two articles in two days about why you don't like AMD. And still we have strong buy, buy, and hold, by 49 other analysts. What is your agenda?","listText":"Two articles in two days about why you don't like AMD. And still we have strong buy, buy, and hold, by 49 other analysts. What is your agenda?","text":"Two articles in two days about why you don't like AMD. And still we have strong buy, buy, and hold, by 49 other analysts. What is your agenda?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274199692009608","repostId":"2411730416","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2411730416","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1707979747,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2411730416?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-15 14:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411730416","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.</p></li><li><p>Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fiscal years revealed substantial vulnerability to macroeconomic cycles.</p></li><li><p>AMD competes with larger players like Intel and NVIDIA and by far lags behind Nvidia in the GPU industry, limiting its exposure to the AI shift.</p></li><li><p>My target price is $161.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32181a1cf7679ea59ddc25d52008f5\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images</p><h2 id=\"id_354411328\">Introduction</h2><p>Advanced Micro Devices stock has enjoyed massive rallies since the company is widely perceived as one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) revolution. According to my valuation analysis, the massive rally of the last twelve months pushed the stock above its fair price. While I could have opted to pay a significant premium for an undisputed leader in the AI chipmaking market, like NVIDIA (NVDA), I am of the opinion that a company trailing behind, such as AMD, does not merit such a premium valuation. Therefore, I believe that AMD is a &#34;Sell&#34; at the current share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3208995006\">Fundamental analysis</h2><p>According to the latest 10-K report, AMD is a global semiconductor company primarily offering server microprocessors (&#34;CPUs&#34;), graphic processing units (&#34;GPUs&#34;), accelerated processing units (&#34;APUs&#34;), data processing units (&#34;DPUs&#34;), AI accelerators and adaptive system-on-chip (&#34;SoC&#34;) products for data centers. The company also provides chipsets for desktops, notebooks, personal computers (&#34;PCs&#34;), and embedded products.</p><p>AMD emerged as a key beneficiary of the rapidly accelerating digital revolution, driving the stock to appreciate by an impressive 4.5 thousand percent over the past decade, yielding an outstanding annualized return of 45% for investors. While it&#39;s tempting to credit AMD&#39;s success solely to favorable shifts in the microenvironment, it would be remiss not to highlight the exceptional leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Appointed as CEO of AMD a decade ago, Dr. Su&#39;s visionary guidance ushered in a new era of prosperity for the company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05af8787f243225ad7269026d5ae953\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Under Lisa Su&#39;s leadership, AMD experienced remarkable growth, with revenue compounding at 20% and operating margins soaring. However, in recent years, the company faced challenges such as revenue pullback and a sharp decline in operating margin, stemming from unfavorable macroeconomic factors like high inflation, swift monetary policy tightening in developed nations, and significant geopolitical disruptions. Although these challenges may seem transient, it&#39;s crucial to acknowledge that despite its notable growth over the past decade, the business remains considerably vulnerable to macroenvironmental shifts, indicating a lack of resilience.</p><p>Furthermore, the CPU and GPU industries are massively competitive. AMD competes with players like NVIDIA and Intel (INTC), which are much larger in terms of revenue. So far, AMD, under Lisa Su&#39;s leadership, has been very successful in gaining market share in CPU at Intel&#39;s cost, but in a rapidly evolving environment when cutting-edge products&#39; lifecycles are short, there is no guarantee that AMD will be able to consistently sustain its market share while competing with giants like Intel and NVIDIA. In the table below, you can see that in absolute terms, AMD&#39;s gross profit is multiple times lower compared to its primary competitors, meaning it has fewer resources to reinvest in business.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec02bc91146ec3b4e0ddf41c43f91ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>I believe there&#39;s significant optimism surrounding AMD, particularly driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) industry. However, as investors, it&#39;s essential to maintain a level-headed approach and delve deeper into the technological landscape. Historically, AMD has demonstrated strength in CPUs rather than GPUs. Yet, for accelerating computing in AI development, GPUs offer greater capacity and are thus better suited. Unfortunately, in the realm of GPUs, AMD significantly lags behind its competitor, NVDA. Consequently, the company&#39;s exposure to the burgeoning AI trend appears to be severely limited, and investors should be aware.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a89545cfd9ad2bee1c72069ef220ac0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\"/></p><p>tomshardware.com</p><p>The extent to which AMD lags behind NVDA is evident in the most recent financial performance. While NVDA is projected by consensus to record a staggering 119% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2024, AMD demonstrated a revenue decline in such a massive year for semiconductor stocks. The company&#39;s revenue in the PC segment dropped massively, and the growth in the Data Center segment, which is supposed to absorb AI tailwinds, was very far from offsetting the loss.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71456b11d7c2c5e36462a2ca630215cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><p>AMD&#39;s 10-K report FY2023</p><p>Many AMD bulls might say that the company has a more diverse portfolio of offerings and end markets in comparison with NVDA, but it seems that this diversification approach does not work that well for shareholders. While NVDA consensus estimates project a 57% revenue growth for the year, which will end in January 2025 to reach almost $93 billion, AMD is expected to achieve only half of this revenue within the next five years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac5758d1d610884649d5f99c06d69f9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>Some might argue that the significant disparity in expected revenue growth is already factored into the market capitalization of both companies, given that NVIDIA&#39;s market cap is currently approximately six times higher than AMD&#39;s. However, as a long-term investor, I prioritize investing in the underlying business rather than merely the stock as an instrument. In this regard, I favor investing in an undisputed market leader over a laggard struggling to drive revenue growth, especially during a year marked by massive AI enthusiasm.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21408cabb7f5434dd81d19a8bc08b6ba\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"236\"/></p><p>Lib Quotes</p><h2 id=\"id_4210092192\">Valuation analysis</h2><p>AMD showed a strong start in 2024 with a 16.6% stock price increase. The momentum across different timeframes is robust, as the stock price has doubled over the last 12 months and increased by 50% over the last quarter. The stock is currently very close to all-time highs. The current market cap is $278 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4626d115d487f26e52cd1d4e87993f18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>To check whether the current share price is attractive, I will conduct the discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) analysis with a 9.8% discount rate. As I usually do, I incorporate consensus revenue estimates for the two upcoming fiscal years. For the years after FY 2025, I expect a steady 300 basis points yearly revenue growth deceleration. I use a 9.72% TTM levered FCF margin with the expected 100 basis points yearly expansion. Due to all the AI industry tailwinds, I give AMD a very optimistic 8% constant growth rate for the terminal value (&#34;TV&#34;) calculation. Currently, there are about 1.6 billion AMD shares outstanding.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ecc9b8ba72807dcb29507bab4d1208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><p>My DCF analysis gives AMD&#39;s fair share price at $162, which is around 6% lower than the current market levels. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the stock is attractively valued. If AMD was the undisputable leader in the GPU market, I would say that the premium is well-deserved, but paying above the fair price for the company, which substantially lags in terms of market share, does not look sound to me.</p><p>Moreover, it is crucial to highlight that the DCF calculation significantly depends on the terminal value amount, which represents around 90% of the fair share price. That said, decreasing the constant growth rate assumption by a mere 50 basis points decreases AMD&#39;s fair share price to $128, which signals a massive 25% overvaluation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc0f5651e6f3d319acccb833c17bbe99\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><h2 id=\"id_3051334112\">Mitigating factors</h2><p>While I currently hold a bearish outlook on AMD at its present stock price, there are several mitigating factors that could potentially prove me wrong.</p><p>Firstly, we are currently amidst a period of significant market optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI technology. As a prominent player in this sector, AMD stands to benefit from this positive sentiment. For instance, the upcoming earnings report from NVDA at the end of February could be a substantial catalyst for all major semiconductor companies, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in AMD&#39;s share price within a short timeframe.</p><p>Secondly, AMD consistently unveils new chips and accelerators, and the market&#39;s reaction to these offerings could significantly influence the stock price in the short term. There exists a possibility that AMD might introduce a groundbreaking product that garners widespread acclaim, sparking a notable rally in its stock price.</p><p>Lastly, the power of momentum cannot be underestimated. With the stock having surged approximately 50% over the last quarter, a significant portion of this rally may have been driven by the fear of missing out (&#34;FOMO&#34;) effect. In such circumstances, a sell-off in the stock might only occur in the event of a major adverse development for the broader market, such as an unexpectedly weak quarterly report. Given that the next earnings release is still some time away, the momentum behind the stock could persist for the next few months.</p><h2 id=\"id_1738166353\">Conclusion</h2><p>While AMD has exposure to the booming AI industry, I think that the market overestimates the extent of this exposure. AMD is not a trendsetter in the industry, and its GPU market share is multiple times lower compared to the industry leader. Therefore, I consider the current 6% premium to the stock price as a good selling opportunity and assign AMD a &#34;Sell&#34; rating.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-15 14:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411730416","content_text":"AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fiscal years revealed substantial vulnerability to macroeconomic cycles.AMD competes with larger players like Intel and NVIDIA and by far lags behind Nvidia in the GPU industry, limiting its exposure to the AI shift.My target price is $161.Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesIntroductionAdvanced Micro Devices stock has enjoyed massive rallies since the company is widely perceived as one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (\"AI\") revolution. According to my valuation analysis, the massive rally of the last twelve months pushed the stock above its fair price. While I could have opted to pay a significant premium for an undisputed leader in the AI chipmaking market, like NVIDIA (NVDA), I am of the opinion that a company trailing behind, such as AMD, does not merit such a premium valuation. Therefore, I believe that AMD is a \"Sell\" at the current share price.Fundamental analysisAccording to the latest 10-K report, AMD is a global semiconductor company primarily offering server microprocessors (\"CPUs\"), graphic processing units (\"GPUs\"), accelerated processing units (\"APUs\"), data processing units (\"DPUs\"), AI accelerators and adaptive system-on-chip (\"SoC\") products for data centers. The company also provides chipsets for desktops, notebooks, personal computers (\"PCs\"), and embedded products.AMD emerged as a key beneficiary of the rapidly accelerating digital revolution, driving the stock to appreciate by an impressive 4.5 thousand percent over the past decade, yielding an outstanding annualized return of 45% for investors. While it's tempting to credit AMD's success solely to favorable shifts in the microenvironment, it would be remiss not to highlight the exceptional leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Appointed as CEO of AMD a decade ago, Dr. Su's visionary guidance ushered in a new era of prosperity for the company.Data by YChartsUnder Lisa Su's leadership, AMD experienced remarkable growth, with revenue compounding at 20% and operating margins soaring. However, in recent years, the company faced challenges such as revenue pullback and a sharp decline in operating margin, stemming from unfavorable macroeconomic factors like high inflation, swift monetary policy tightening in developed nations, and significant geopolitical disruptions. Although these challenges may seem transient, it's crucial to acknowledge that despite its notable growth over the past decade, the business remains considerably vulnerable to macroenvironmental shifts, indicating a lack of resilience.Furthermore, the CPU and GPU industries are massively competitive. AMD competes with players like NVIDIA and Intel (INTC), which are much larger in terms of revenue. So far, AMD, under Lisa Su's leadership, has been very successful in gaining market share in CPU at Intel's cost, but in a rapidly evolving environment when cutting-edge products' lifecycles are short, there is no guarantee that AMD will be able to consistently sustain its market share while competing with giants like Intel and NVIDIA. In the table below, you can see that in absolute terms, AMD's gross profit is multiple times lower compared to its primary competitors, meaning it has fewer resources to reinvest in business.SAI believe there's significant optimism surrounding AMD, particularly driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (\"AI\") industry. However, as investors, it's essential to maintain a level-headed approach and delve deeper into the technological landscape. Historically, AMD has demonstrated strength in CPUs rather than GPUs. Yet, for accelerating computing in AI development, GPUs offer greater capacity and are thus better suited. Unfortunately, in the realm of GPUs, AMD significantly lags behind its competitor, NVDA. Consequently, the company's exposure to the burgeoning AI trend appears to be severely limited, and investors should be aware.tomshardware.comThe extent to which AMD lags behind NVDA is evident in the most recent financial performance. While NVDA is projected by consensus to record a staggering 119% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2024, AMD demonstrated a revenue decline in such a massive year for semiconductor stocks. The company's revenue in the PC segment dropped massively, and the growth in the Data Center segment, which is supposed to absorb AI tailwinds, was very far from offsetting the loss.AMD's 10-K report FY2023Many AMD bulls might say that the company has a more diverse portfolio of offerings and end markets in comparison with NVDA, but it seems that this diversification approach does not work that well for shareholders. While NVDA consensus estimates project a 57% revenue growth for the year, which will end in January 2025 to reach almost $93 billion, AMD is expected to achieve only half of this revenue within the next five years.SASome might argue that the significant disparity in expected revenue growth is already factored into the market capitalization of both companies, given that NVIDIA's market cap is currently approximately six times higher than AMD's. However, as a long-term investor, I prioritize investing in the underlying business rather than merely the stock as an instrument. In this regard, I favor investing in an undisputed market leader over a laggard struggling to drive revenue growth, especially during a year marked by massive AI enthusiasm.Lib QuotesValuation analysisAMD showed a strong start in 2024 with a 16.6% stock price increase. The momentum across different timeframes is robust, as the stock price has doubled over the last 12 months and increased by 50% over the last quarter. The stock is currently very close to all-time highs. The current market cap is $278 billion.SATo check whether the current share price is attractive, I will conduct the discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") analysis with a 9.8% discount rate. As I usually do, I incorporate consensus revenue estimates for the two upcoming fiscal years. For the years after FY 2025, I expect a steady 300 basis points yearly revenue growth deceleration. I use a 9.72% TTM levered FCF margin with the expected 100 basis points yearly expansion. Due to all the AI industry tailwinds, I give AMD a very optimistic 8% constant growth rate for the terminal value (\"TV\") calculation. Currently, there are about 1.6 billion AMD shares outstanding.Calculated by the authorMy DCF analysis gives AMD's fair share price at $162, which is around 6% lower than the current market levels. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the stock is attractively valued. If AMD was the undisputable leader in the GPU market, I would say that the premium is well-deserved, but paying above the fair price for the company, which substantially lags in terms of market share, does not look sound to me.Moreover, it is crucial to highlight that the DCF calculation significantly depends on the terminal value amount, which represents around 90% of the fair share price. That said, decreasing the constant growth rate assumption by a mere 50 basis points decreases AMD's fair share price to $128, which signals a massive 25% overvaluation.Calculated by the authorMitigating factorsWhile I currently hold a bearish outlook on AMD at its present stock price, there are several mitigating factors that could potentially prove me wrong.Firstly, we are currently amidst a period of significant market optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI technology. As a prominent player in this sector, AMD stands to benefit from this positive sentiment. For instance, the upcoming earnings report from NVDA at the end of February could be a substantial catalyst for all major semiconductor companies, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in AMD's share price within a short timeframe.Secondly, AMD consistently unveils new chips and accelerators, and the market's reaction to these offerings could significantly influence the stock price in the short term. There exists a possibility that AMD might introduce a groundbreaking product that garners widespread acclaim, sparking a notable rally in its stock price.Lastly, the power of momentum cannot be underestimated. With the stock having surged approximately 50% over the last quarter, a significant portion of this rally may have been driven by the fear of missing out (\"FOMO\") effect. In such circumstances, a sell-off in the stock might only occur in the event of a major adverse development for the broader market, such as an unexpectedly weak quarterly report. Given that the next earnings release is still some time away, the momentum behind the stock could persist for the next few months.ConclusionWhile AMD has exposure to the booming AI industry, I think that the market overestimates the extent of this exposure. AMD is not a trendsetter in the industry, and its GPU market share is multiple times lower compared to the industry leader. Therefore, I consider the current 6% premium to the stock price as a good selling opportunity and assign AMD a \"Sell\" rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274547076841768,"gmtCreate":1708066046370,"gmtModify":1708066050523,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bring it!","listText":"Bring it!","text":"Bring it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274547076841768","repostId":"2411213855","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2411213855","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1708065695,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2411213855?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-16 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Potential Upside Increases Amidst Strong Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411213855","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Financial Performance: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Q4 2023 earnings surpassed estimates, driven by robust growth in embedded and data center segments, though tempered by reduced Q1 2024 forecasts, no","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Financial Performance: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Q4 2023 earnings surpassed estimates, driven by robust growth in embedded and data center segments, though tempered by reduced Q1 2024 forecasts, notably in gaming.</p></li><li><p>Market Dynamics: The data center market, especially AI-driven segments, shows strong growth prospects, alongside steady expansion in the PC and embedded processor markets.</p></li><li><p>Financial Health: Despite fluctuating operating income, AMD has seen significant annual revenue and net income growth since 2017, with improving margins and a solid balance sheet.</p></li><li><p>Valuation Models: Two valuation models indicate substantial upside potential for AMD, based on analysts&#39; estimates and market trends.</p></li><li><p>Risks &amp; Conclusion: Despite risks such as market slowdowns and weak PC market, AMD maintains substantial upside potential, retaining a strong buy rating with a target fair price of $282.34 and a future price of $653.99. Continued monitoring of client and gaming segments is advised for Q1 2024.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c0a8586ec3ce340c204e0399d3d675\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p>Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images</p><h2 id=\"id_3099807667\">Thesis</h2><p>In my second article about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</a>, released after Q3 2023, I rated the stock as a strong buy, citing that after reevaluating my models, the potential fair price of AMD stock had increased to $273.2, from the $129.9 target set in my first article two months previously. This increase in fair price in the second article was caused by AMD&#39;s beat of Q3 2023 estimates as well as a personal error where I didn&#39;t correctly average analysts&#39; estimates and therefore made the model excessively conservative.</p><p>Since my first article, where I explained that even after putting AMD in the most conservative conditions the stock still had a 18% upside, the total rally of AMD has been of around 87.85%.</p><p>In this article, I will update my models with the new financial information available from Q4 2023 earnings released on January 30th. As you will see, my fair price estimate for AMD has increased to $282.34 and the future price to $653.99. This indicates that AMD can offer a 61.9% upside from the current stock price of $174.36. Finally, as you will see, even if AMD&#39;s fails to meet analyst estimates and instead performs as indicated by the conservative second model, the stock would still be undervalued by 45.4%. Therefore, I reiterate my strong buy rating on AMD.</p><h2 id=\"id_3851358833\">Overview</h2><h3 id=\"id_2555436937\">Q4 2023 Earnings</h3><p>AMD reported Q4 2023 earnings where it beat estimates in EPS and revenue. The beat, according to AMD, was driven due to strong embedded and data center growth. Data center finished 42% up YoY. Nevertheless, AMD&#39;s stock was weaker because the company lowered forecast for Q1 2024.</p><p>The main segment affected by the lowered forecast was AMD&#39;s gaming segment, which reported a 17% decline due to slower console sales. The segment finished 7% down YoY, and for Q1 2024, the company expects that sales of chips for consoles will decline by a &#34;significant double-digit percentage.&#34;</p><p>The client segment was also severely affected. This segment ended down by 51% in a YoY basis. This is very important to monitor in my opinion, since it&#39;s one of AMD&#39;s core businesses, and it surprised me that it shrank by such a significant percentage. The company said that this was because the PC market was weak, and that companies hold significant inventories of their chips.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c947cda43bdf265ec658971110e57920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"/></p><p>AMD Q4 2023 Earnings</p><h3 id=\"id_4080751388\">Data Center Market</h3><p>The most important segment right now is the one involving data centers. The Worldwide Data Center Market is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 6.56% throughout 2028.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d80e6fa2a0370ce52fbeac1260a5bb\" tg-width=\"1718\" tg-height=\"843\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p>However, inside this market we can find the AI segment, which uses data centers and drives data center revenues. The AI market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 17.30% from 2023 to 2030. However, for the period 2022-2026, the spending on AI-centric systems is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27%. For this reason, in my second valuation model, data center revenue will grow by 27% from 2024 to 2026 and later it will grow at a rate of 17.30%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84af34c9ab7be41e3613f8e93605ccd2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p>Statista</p><h3 id=\"id_1977145404\">Client, Gaming &amp; Embedded processors</h3><p>This segment involves the CPUs and GPUs AMD includes in each of the PCs we purchase as well as in all the gaming consoles. Meanwhile, embedded refers to more simple chips like those used in some appliances. The worldwide PC market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% throughout 2029. Meanwhile, the global embedded processors market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.12% throughout 2031.</p><h2 id=\"id_594444618\">Financials</h2><p>AMD&#39;s revenue has been growing at a 55.3% annual pace since 2017, while net income has being growing by 448%. However, operating income has been decreasing at a 36% annual pace. This is because of a considerable slump that started after 2021. You can see that in the graph below.</p><p>Since my previous article, released in Q3 2023, revenue has grown by 2.57%, operating income has shoot up by 501%, as well as net income which increased by 310%.</p><p>Margins have gone further into the positive, with operating margin passing from -0.36% to 1.77% and net income margin going from 0.94% to 3.77%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28d5f8a2910dc78cd0c545441792cab5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddf7df8bf5e960ac2bebc724de5b7e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p>AMD&#39;s balance sheet continues to be in excellent condition. Cash reserves have stayed almost unchanged, passing from $5.77 billion to $5.78 billion. Short-term debt increased slightly from $1.14 billion to $1.39 billion as well as long-term debt, growing from $1.715 billion to $1.717 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2f36fc7bcb8a6cb84308e2f27f476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p>Lastly, free cash flow has decreased slightly by around $50 million and now stands at $1.57 billion. Because of this, the FCF margin passed from 7.3% to 6.9%. The main cause of the reduction in FCF was a decrease in cash from operations, which passed from $1.85 billion to $1.66 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4a7ef28f0742a18b32914c210c1f30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"494\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c46778616be714cb72f85e1e370d436\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6b131f2280de2e24a6d9cb24a964f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><h2 id=\"id_4047831886\">Valuation</h2><p>In this valuation, I will create two discounted cash flow, or DCF, models. The first one will be based on available analysts&#39; estimates, and the second one in available market trends for each of AMD&#39;s segments. The objective of this is to have an idea of how AMD&#39;s stock could perform if they don&#39;t meet analysts&#39; estimates.</p><p>In the table below, you will find all the current financial data for AMD n necessary for the calculation of the WACC. For AMD, the WACC came out at 13.99%. Furthermore, D&amp;A, interest expenses, and CapEx will be calculated with a margin tied to revenue, so they will rise over time.</p><p>The future price, in both models, will be calculated using the historical growth of each of the equity&#39;s elements. Long-term debt will grow at the 4.9% rate displayed since 2027, meanwhile short-term debt will grow at 18.5% annually as displayed in 2021 and 2023. Marketable securities will also grow at the rate displayed since 2021, which is 10%, as well as current assets, which will grow by 47.68% annually.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"2\" style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>(Current data)</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Assumptions Part 1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Equity Value</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>277,170.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Debt Value</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,109.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Cost of Debt</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.41%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Tax Rate</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.05%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10y Treasury</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.18%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Beta</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.57</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Market Return</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Cost of Equity</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14.11%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Assumptions Part 2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CapEx</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>546.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Capex Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>854.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Interest</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>106.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Tax</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-346.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>751.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Ebitda</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1,365.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>D&amp;A Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.59%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Interest Expense Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.93%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,402.0</p></td></tr></tbody></table><h3 id=\"id_3988961406\">Analysts&#39; Estimates</h3><p>In this first model, I will calculate the potential fair price and future price for AMD, based on the average estimates available at Seeking Alpha. The first aspect is EPS, which as you can see, is expected to grow at double-digits until 2027, and then there will be a slump. This slump may be caused by the semiconductor cycle, which may be expected to start its slowdown period in 2028.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98b9bc603bcbdab14a95b91f917ecb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Then, it&#39;s revenue, which is also expected to grow at double-digits, and after 2027, there will be a slump in growth. For 2024, average estimates indicate a revenue of $25.82 billion and $32.47 billion for 2025. You can observe the rest of the estimates in the table below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42edae64c948f5c6e091efcdb883058f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Taxes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Interest</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,820.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$5,882.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$6,473.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$8,174.06</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$8,414.09</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$32,470.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$8,823.36</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$9,710.11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$11,410.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$11,650.80</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$39,390.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$11,586.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$12,751.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$15,345.63</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$15,711.83</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$46,450.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$16,192.32</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$17,819.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$20,879.11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$21,310.93</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$50,550.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$17,323.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$19,064.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$22,394.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$22,863.99</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$56,216.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$24,737.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$27,224.15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$30,926.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$31,449.52</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>^Final EBITA^</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/154c47a126a1087222ad54390875e758\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"668\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p>This model, based on average analysts&#39; estimates, suggests a fair price of $311.14, which implies an 78.4% upside from the current stock price of $174.36. The future price suggested for 2029 is $716.04, which translates into annual returns of 51.8% annually throughout 2029.</p><h3 id=\"id_814043735\">My Estimates</h3><p>In this second model, I will make each of AMD&#39;s segment grow by their respective market CAGR, this means that Data center will grow at a rate of 27% from 2024 to 2026, and from 2027 to 2029 will grow by 17.30%. Meanwhile, client and gaming will grow at a rate of 9.1% and embedded by 8.12% annually.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Data Center</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Client</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Gaming</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Embedded</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,496.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4,651.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,212.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,321.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,217.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,074.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,777.3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,753.1</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,395.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,536.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,394.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,220.2</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,149.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,039.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,066.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,725.3</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,490.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,589.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,801.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,271.4</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18,247.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,189.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9,601.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,861.8</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,495.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,843.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,475.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,500.2</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Lastly, net income will be calculated with the same net income margin derived from the previous model. This is because I prefer to manipulate net income through revenue. In the bar graph below this table, you will be able to see a comparison of the EPS estimates suggested by these two models.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Taxes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Interest</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income Margin %</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,822.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$5,882.26</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$6,473.43</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$7,328.47</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$7,449.15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.78%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$29,545.3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$8,027.46</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$8,834.22</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$9,689.26</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$9,809.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$33,981.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$9,997.42</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$11,002.16</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$12,127.39</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$12,286.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29.42%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$38,152.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$13,299.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$14,636.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$15,899.80</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$16,078.12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.86%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$42,900.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$14,701.97</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$16,179.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$17,600.07</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$17,800.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.27%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$48,314.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$21,258.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$23,395.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$24,994.86</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,220.67</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.00%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>^Final EBITA^</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67451c9452c9e64ac71e419d4dc7d68f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4863d5380b1cd66a4e8a2c7c93a1f4b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"696\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p>As you can see, this second model is far more conservative than the first one; however, it suggests that AMD could still offer a very decent near-term upside of around 45.4%, if it adjusts to its estimated fair price of $253.55. For 2029, the estimated fair price is $591.94, which translates into annual returns of 39.9% throughout 2029.</p><h3 id=\"id_2606381195\">Why are these results important?</h3><p>The second model indicates that even if AMD grows at the average market trend, and therefore achieves EPS estimates that are lower than those expected by analysts, the stock would still be around 45.4% undervalued. This is important because it basically assures us that AMD is undervalued, and something severe would need to happen for its stock to go down.</p><p>Furthermore, even in the second conservative model, the stock can still offer 39.9% annual returns. This means that AMD even after an 87.85% rally since my first article, AMD still has a very decent upside, and if it does meet analysts&#39; estimates, then the stock&#39;s upside could be of 78.4% and the potential annual returns would climb up to 51.8% throughout 2029. Taking this into account, the stock continues to be a strong buy and I will set a stock price target of $282.34 and a future price for 2029 of $653.99. Both are the average of the results yielded by both models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2300306501\">Risks to Thesis</h2><p>AMD seems basically unstoppable right now. However, in the unlikely scenario that the whole market slows down and it stays like that until 2029, then all of the second model would probably be voided, and analysts&#39; estimates would probably also be revised down. This could potentially cause the perceived safety on AMD&#39;s stock to disappear. This would void my thesis, and my strong buy rating could potentially be downgraded to a hold.</p><p>Secondly, there is the risk that AMD&#39;s client and gaming segments continue to be in trouble due to high inventories and weakened consumer demand. If a sudden recession occurs because of rate hikes, then the situation could become worse.</p><p>Finally, I think that market sentiment is very important for AMD right now, since it&#39;s trading at very high multiples, as you can see on Seeking Alpha. This means that if AMD continuously issues weak guidance, the stock could take a huge dive, even if it&#39;s undervalued.</p><h2 id=\"id_2117401816\">Conclusion</h2><p>In conclusion, despite an 87.85% rally since my first coverage, AMD still has a very decent upside to offer, which according to my estimates could be around 61.9% upside. After conducting the two DCF models, I arrived at the conclusion that AMD continues to be a strong buy, because the conservative second model suggests than AMD&#39;s upside is around 45.4% and annual returns around 39.9%. This indicates that AMD has a huge security margin and that it can miss analysts&#39; estimates by a huge margin and still be undervalued. My new fair price is set at $282.34 and the future price at $653.99, both indicating huge returns in case AMD comes in between the estimates of the first and second DCF models.</p><p>For Q1 2024, I would monitor the AMD client and gaming segments to observe if gaming consoles chips does not perform as bad as forecasted and if client reverts some of that 51% YoY drop it registered for FY2023.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Potential Upside Increases Amidst Strong Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Potential Upside Increases Amidst Strong Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-16 14:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670606-amd-potential-upside-increases-amidst-strong-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Financial Performance: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Q4 2023 earnings surpassed estimates, driven by robust growth in embedded and data center segments, though tempered by reduced Q1 2024 forecasts, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670606-amd-potential-upside-increases-amidst-strong-growth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670606-amd-potential-upside-increases-amidst-strong-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411213855","content_text":"Financial Performance: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Q4 2023 earnings surpassed estimates, driven by robust growth in embedded and data center segments, though tempered by reduced Q1 2024 forecasts, notably in gaming.Market Dynamics: The data center market, especially AI-driven segments, shows strong growth prospects, alongside steady expansion in the PC and embedded processor markets.Financial Health: Despite fluctuating operating income, AMD has seen significant annual revenue and net income growth since 2017, with improving margins and a solid balance sheet.Valuation Models: Two valuation models indicate substantial upside potential for AMD, based on analysts' estimates and market trends.Risks & Conclusion: Despite risks such as market slowdowns and weak PC market, AMD maintains substantial upside potential, retaining a strong buy rating with a target fair price of $282.34 and a future price of $653.99. Continued monitoring of client and gaming segments is advised for Q1 2024.Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThesisIn my second article about Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., released after Q3 2023, I rated the stock as a strong buy, citing that after reevaluating my models, the potential fair price of AMD stock had increased to $273.2, from the $129.9 target set in my first article two months previously. This increase in fair price in the second article was caused by AMD's beat of Q3 2023 estimates as well as a personal error where I didn't correctly average analysts' estimates and therefore made the model excessively conservative.Since my first article, where I explained that even after putting AMD in the most conservative conditions the stock still had a 18% upside, the total rally of AMD has been of around 87.85%.In this article, I will update my models with the new financial information available from Q4 2023 earnings released on January 30th. As you will see, my fair price estimate for AMD has increased to $282.34 and the future price to $653.99. This indicates that AMD can offer a 61.9% upside from the current stock price of $174.36. Finally, as you will see, even if AMD's fails to meet analyst estimates and instead performs as indicated by the conservative second model, the stock would still be undervalued by 45.4%. Therefore, I reiterate my strong buy rating on AMD.OverviewQ4 2023 EarningsAMD reported Q4 2023 earnings where it beat estimates in EPS and revenue. The beat, according to AMD, was driven due to strong embedded and data center growth. Data center finished 42% up YoY. Nevertheless, AMD's stock was weaker because the company lowered forecast for Q1 2024.The main segment affected by the lowered forecast was AMD's gaming segment, which reported a 17% decline due to slower console sales. The segment finished 7% down YoY, and for Q1 2024, the company expects that sales of chips for consoles will decline by a \"significant double-digit percentage.\"The client segment was also severely affected. This segment ended down by 51% in a YoY basis. This is very important to monitor in my opinion, since it's one of AMD's core businesses, and it surprised me that it shrank by such a significant percentage. The company said that this was because the PC market was weak, and that companies hold significant inventories of their chips.AMD Q4 2023 EarningsData Center MarketThe most important segment right now is the one involving data centers. The Worldwide Data Center Market is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 6.56% throughout 2028.StatistaHowever, inside this market we can find the AI segment, which uses data centers and drives data center revenues. The AI market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 17.30% from 2023 to 2030. However, for the period 2022-2026, the spending on AI-centric systems is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27%. For this reason, in my second valuation model, data center revenue will grow by 27% from 2024 to 2026 and later it will grow at a rate of 17.30%.StatistaClient, Gaming & Embedded processorsThis segment involves the CPUs and GPUs AMD includes in each of the PCs we purchase as well as in all the gaming consoles. Meanwhile, embedded refers to more simple chips like those used in some appliances. The worldwide PC market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% throughout 2029. Meanwhile, the global embedded processors market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.12% throughout 2031.FinancialsAMD's revenue has been growing at a 55.3% annual pace since 2017, while net income has being growing by 448%. However, operating income has been decreasing at a 36% annual pace. This is because of a considerable slump that started after 2021. You can see that in the graph below.Since my previous article, released in Q3 2023, revenue has grown by 2.57%, operating income has shoot up by 501%, as well as net income which increased by 310%.Margins have gone further into the positive, with operating margin passing from -0.36% to 1.77% and net income margin going from 0.94% to 3.77%.Author's CalculationsAuthor's CalculationsAMD's balance sheet continues to be in excellent condition. Cash reserves have stayed almost unchanged, passing from $5.77 billion to $5.78 billion. Short-term debt increased slightly from $1.14 billion to $1.39 billion as well as long-term debt, growing from $1.715 billion to $1.717 billion.Author's CalculationsLastly, free cash flow has decreased slightly by around $50 million and now stands at $1.57 billion. Because of this, the FCF margin passed from 7.3% to 6.9%. The main cause of the reduction in FCF was a decrease in cash from operations, which passed from $1.85 billion to $1.66 billion.Author's CalculationsAuthor's CalculationsAuthor's CalculationsValuationIn this valuation, I will create two discounted cash flow, or DCF, models. The first one will be based on available analysts' estimates, and the second one in available market trends for each of AMD's segments. The objective of this is to have an idea of how AMD's stock could perform if they don't meet analysts' estimates.In the table below, you will find all the current financial data for AMD n necessary for the calculation of the WACC. For AMD, the WACC came out at 13.99%. Furthermore, D&A, interest expenses, and CapEx will be calculated with a margin tied to revenue, so they will rise over time.The future price, in both models, will be calculated using the historical growth of each of the equity's elements. Long-term debt will grow at the 4.9% rate displayed since 2027, meanwhile short-term debt will grow at 18.5% annually as displayed in 2021 and 2023. Marketable securities will also grow at the rate displayed since 2021, which is 10%, as well as current assets, which will grow by 47.68% annually.TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS(Current data)Assumptions Part 1Equity Value277,170.00Debt Value3,109.00Cost of Debt3.41%Tax Rate10.05%10y Treasury4.18%Beta1.57Market Return10.50%Cost of Equity14.11%Assumptions Part 2CapEx546.00Capex Margin4.79%Net Income854.00Interest106.00Tax-346.00D&A751.00Ebitda1,365.00D&A Margin6.59%Interest Expense Margin0.93%Revenue11,402.0Analysts' EstimatesIn this first model, I will calculate the potential fair price and future price for AMD, based on the average estimates available at Seeking Alpha. The first aspect is EPS, which as you can see, is expected to grow at double-digits until 2027, and then there will be a slump. This slump may be caused by the semiconductor cycle, which may be expected to start its slowdown period in 2028.Seeking AlphaThen, it's revenue, which is also expected to grow at double-digits, and after 2027, there will be a slump in growth. For 2024, average estimates indicate a revenue of $25.82 billion and $32.47 billion for 2025. You can observe the rest of the estimates in the table below.Seeking AlphaRevenueNet IncomePlus TaxesPlus D&APlus Interest2024$25,820.0$5,882.24$6,473.41$8,174.06$8,414.092025$32,470.0$8,823.36$9,710.11$11,410.76$11,650.802026$39,390.0$11,586.72$12,751.19$15,345.63$15,711.832027$46,450.0$16,192.32$17,819.65$20,879.11$21,310.932028$50,550.0$17,323.52$19,064.53$22,394.04$22,863.992029$56,216.7$24,737.99$27,224.15$30,926.90$31,449.52^Final EBITA^Author's CalculationsThis model, based on average analysts' estimates, suggests a fair price of $311.14, which implies an 78.4% upside from the current stock price of $174.36. The future price suggested for 2029 is $716.04, which translates into annual returns of 51.8% annually throughout 2029.My EstimatesIn this second model, I will make each of AMD's segment grow by their respective market CAGR, this means that Data center will grow at a rate of 27% from 2024 to 2026, and from 2027 to 2029 will grow by 17.30%. Meanwhile, client and gaming will grow at a rate of 9.1% and embedded by 8.12% annually.Data CenterClientGamingEmbedded20236,496.04,651.06,212.05,321.020248,217.45,074.26,777.35,753.1202510,395.15,536.07,394.06,220.2202613,149.86,039.88,066.96,725.3202715,490.46,589.48,801.07,271.4202818,247.77,189.09,601.97,861.8202921,495.87,843.210,475.68,500.2Lastly, net income will be calculated with the same net income margin derived from the previous model. This is because I prefer to manipulate net income through revenue. In the bar graph below this table, you will be able to see a comparison of the EPS estimates suggested by these two models.RevenueNet IncomePlus TaxesPlus D&APlus InterestNet Income Margin %2024$25,822.0$5,882.26$6,473.43$7,328.47$7,449.1522.78%2025$29,545.3$8,027.46$8,834.22$9,689.26$9,809.9427.17%2026$33,981.7$9,997.42$11,002.16$12,127.39$12,286.2129.42%2027$38,152.2$13,299.84$14,636.48$15,899.80$16,078.1234.86%2028$42,900.4$14,701.97$16,179.52$17,600.07$17,800.5834.27%2029$48,314.9$21,258.54$23,395.02$24,994.86$25,220.6744.00%^Final EBITA^Author's CalculationsAuthor's CalculationsAs you can see, this second model is far more conservative than the first one; however, it suggests that AMD could still offer a very decent near-term upside of around 45.4%, if it adjusts to its estimated fair price of $253.55. For 2029, the estimated fair price is $591.94, which translates into annual returns of 39.9% throughout 2029.Why are these results important?The second model indicates that even if AMD grows at the average market trend, and therefore achieves EPS estimates that are lower than those expected by analysts, the stock would still be around 45.4% undervalued. This is important because it basically assures us that AMD is undervalued, and something severe would need to happen for its stock to go down.Furthermore, even in the second conservative model, the stock can still offer 39.9% annual returns. This means that AMD even after an 87.85% rally since my first article, AMD still has a very decent upside, and if it does meet analysts' estimates, then the stock's upside could be of 78.4% and the potential annual returns would climb up to 51.8% throughout 2029. Taking this into account, the stock continues to be a strong buy and I will set a stock price target of $282.34 and a future price for 2029 of $653.99. Both are the average of the results yielded by both models.Risks to ThesisAMD seems basically unstoppable right now. However, in the unlikely scenario that the whole market slows down and it stays like that until 2029, then all of the second model would probably be voided, and analysts' estimates would probably also be revised down. This could potentially cause the perceived safety on AMD's stock to disappear. This would void my thesis, and my strong buy rating could potentially be downgraded to a hold.Secondly, there is the risk that AMD's client and gaming segments continue to be in trouble due to high inventories and weakened consumer demand. If a sudden recession occurs because of rate hikes, then the situation could become worse.Finally, I think that market sentiment is very important for AMD right now, since it's trading at very high multiples, as you can see on Seeking Alpha. This means that if AMD continuously issues weak guidance, the stock could take a huge dive, even if it's undervalued.ConclusionIn conclusion, despite an 87.85% rally since my first coverage, AMD still has a very decent upside to offer, which according to my estimates could be around 61.9% upside. After conducting the two DCF models, I arrived at the conclusion that AMD continues to be a strong buy, because the conservative second model suggests than AMD's upside is around 45.4% and annual returns around 39.9%. This indicates that AMD has a huge security margin and that it can miss analysts' estimates by a huge margin and still be undervalued. My new fair price is set at $282.34 and the future price at $653.99, both indicating huge returns in case AMD comes in between the estimates of the first and second DCF models.For Q1 2024, I would monitor the AMD client and gaming segments to observe if gaming consoles chips does not perform as bad as forecasted and if client reverts some of that 51% YoY drop it registered for FY2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278326299123864,"gmtCreate":1708978389669,"gmtModify":1708978393178,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> Having a wee run today.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> Having a wee run today.","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Having a wee run today.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5780fdfbf95f9ca260c9712f0efd154","width":"720","height":"1070"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278326299123864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":279388414976288,"gmtCreate":1709231528860,"gmtModify":1709231533504,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up she goes! March into March for the win!","listText":"Up she goes! March into March for the win!","text":"Up she goes! March into March for the win!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/279388414976288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278789570130072,"gmtCreate":1709091492941,"gmtModify":1709091497378,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am watching&nbsp;$SOUN$&nbsp;","listText":"I am watching&nbsp;$SOUN$&nbsp;","text":"I am watching $SOUN$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278789570130072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278788099514400,"gmtCreate":1709091126859,"gmtModify":1709091854384,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and&nbsp;bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE","listText":"Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and&nbsp;bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE","text":"Thanks to the community posts hete at Tiger, I've been watching, and bought some https://tigr.link/6DCpxE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278788099514400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":277225679282192,"gmtCreate":1708708046776,"gmtModify":1708708049380,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ </a> This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ </a> This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.","text":"$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ This is a Meme Bet and I don't think it will see $1000 again this year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/277225679282192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276882790613032,"gmtCreate":1708624335527,"gmtModify":1708624339708,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$782.53","listText":"$782.53","text":"$782.53","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276882790613032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273286041530528,"gmtCreate":1707758017461,"gmtModify":1707785747055,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ticker is important with regular and steady buy ins. $50 (or whatever) a week on a good ticker = win long term.","listText":"Ticker is important with regular and steady buy ins. $50 (or whatever) a week on a good ticker = win long term.","text":"Ticker is important with regular and steady buy ins. $50 (or whatever) a week on a good ticker = win long term.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273286041530528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326703516373072,"gmtCreate":1720795080705,"gmtModify":1720795100009,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just buy every week as usual.","listText":"Just buy every week as usual.","text":"Just buy every week as usual.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326703516373072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290169583407280,"gmtCreate":1711848728689,"gmtModify":1711848732734,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up and Down","listText":"Up and Down","text":"Up and Down","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ddf97914a15269f15058c91dca04175"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290169583407280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290169185984776,"gmtCreate":1711848632436,"gmtModify":1711848636947,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up and down.","listText":"Up and down.","text":"Up and down.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de2adead3f8c648eb4bd205bd3d76d94"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290169185984776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290168819474448,"gmtCreate":1711848566803,"gmtModify":1711848571617,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"P&amp;L Calendar&nbsp;","listText":"P&amp;L Calendar&nbsp;","text":"P&L Calendar","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6adc90f67120428f94e8dbe038adddc4","width":"590","height":"963"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290168819474448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290166956495096,"gmtCreate":1711848187481,"gmtModify":1711848192766,"author":{"id":"4169783945382972","authorId":"4169783945382972","name":"BeingLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169783945382972","authorIdStr":"4169783945382972"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.","listText":"I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.","text":"I can't attach screenshots. New Zealand is the Sky Tower, and Australia is the Sydney Opera House.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290166956495096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}