苏36
苏36
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avatar苏36
09-24
For me, a cash-secured put is not simply a strategy to collect premium—it is a commitment to buy a stock at a price I have already decided is attractive. I prefer OTM strikes with enough downside buffer, typically giving myself time for theta to work without taking unnecessary assignment risk. But the biggest lesson is that a high premium often comes with a reason: elevated IV usually means the market expects bigger moves. I also prefer limit orders, especially when spreads are wide. A few cents of execution difference may look insignificant, but repeated across multiple contracts, it adds up. Most importantly, I treat assignment as part of the original plan, not a failure. Before entering, I ask one question: If this stock falls another 30%, would I still be comfortable owning 100 shares
avatar苏36
09-14
My pick: D — Expectations are already high. I’m still bullish on Nvidia’s business, but at this stage, the biggest risk isn’t whether AI demand exists—it’s whether future growth can beat what the market has already priced in. The US$3–4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity is enormous, and Nvidia’s move from GPUs toward full AI systems, networking, robotics and cybersecurity could expand its addressable market significantly. But a great company doesn’t automatically mean a great stock at any valuation. Rising competition, supply constraints, customer concentration and eventually slowing growth could all pressure the multiple. Burry closing his puts is interesting, but I wouldn’t treat it as a buy signal. For NVDA, execution must keep outrunning expectations.
avatar苏36
09-14
I think the 50% share can hold in the near term, but it is becoming a much higher bar to clear. Goldman itself expects AI infrastructure beneficiaries to drive roughly half of S&P 500 earnings growth, while Q2 data showed AI infrastructure already contributing about one-third of EPS growth. The key question is no longer whether companies will spend on AI—they clearly are. It is whether that spending converts into recurring revenue and margins. If hyperscalers keep expanding capex, the suppliers can continue winning. But if financing costs rise or ROI disappoints, the earnings concentration becomes the market's biggest vulnerability. So my view: 50% can persist, but it probably cannot keep rising indefinitely. AI remains the engine; valuation and cash-flow discipline decide how far the
avatar苏36
09-04
If I had to pick just one, I’d go with $SNOW. BE has the cleaner technical breakout, while HOOD, COIN and MSTR could deliver bigger gains if Bitcoin keeps climbing. But SNOW is the setup I find most convincing because the fundamentals are catching up with the price. Product revenue grew 37% YoY to $1.49B, and management raised FY2027 guidance to $6.07B. More importantly, AI is driving increasing customer consumption, suggesting this isn’t simply another AI-fueled valuation story. Still, a 16%+ one-day rally means expectations are now elevated. I wouldn’t chase the spike. I’d rather wait for consolidation or a pullback and see whether the earnings gap becomes a new support zone. My choice: SNOW. Not the fastest horse, but arguably the one with the strongest evidence behind its breakout.
avatar苏36
09-04
I’d pick C. Both. The bigger opportunity isn’t MBS taking market share from RWS, but Singapore growing the entire tourism pie. MBS’s US$8 billion expansion is a major bet on luxury tourism, concerts and MICE. Its 15,000-seat arena could attract more global acts and overseas visitors, boosting spending across hotels, restaurants, retail and entertainment. Meanwhile, Genting Singapore’s RWS 2.0 provides its own growth catalyst through expanded attractions and hospitality. If both projects succeed, Singapore could create a powerful cycle: better attractions bring more tourists, while bigger events drive higher-value spending. By 2031, the real winner may be Singapore itself. For investors, however, I’d focus on ROIC, visitor growth, gaming revenue and valuation. A bigger tourism market is bu
avatar苏36
10-23
The Real AI Bottleneck Isn't Chips—It's Electricity. ⚡ My bet is on grid infrastructure, especially transformers, switchgear, and power-management systems. AI chips can become more powerful, but data centers cannot operate without reliable electricity. Grid upgrades also serve factories and utilities, creating demand beyond AI and potentially reducing dependence on semiconductor cycles. However, rising orders don't guarantee investment returns. Margins can weaken, projects face delays, and valuations may already price in years of growth. I'd watch GRID for electrification exposure while tracking order backlogs, free cash flow, and valuations. My conclusion: Chips enable AI; electricity enables AI to scale. The winners will be companies turning this bottleneck into sustainable earnings, not
avatar苏36
10-23
The October sell-off may be less about AI losing its potential and more about investors questioning its price tag. Meta’s earnings showed that strong revenue growth is no longer enough when capital expenditure rises faster than confidence in future returns. Personally, I see this as a valuation reset rather than automatic proof that the AI boom is over. However, I would not rush to buy the dip simply because prices have fallen. The key is identifying companies that can convert AI investment into sustainable earnings and free cash flow. As for PSQ, QID and SQQQ, inverse ETFs are tactical instruments, not comfortable long-term insurance. Daily resets and volatility can erode returns even when the broader market eventually declines. My strategy is to stay selective, preserve cash and avoid c
avatar苏36
09-04
Chart #12 probably hits hardest: losses are mathematically brutal. A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain just to get back to where you started. That’s why avoiding permanent capital destruction matters more than chasing every hot trade. But Chart #14 is the bigger lesson for me: time is an investor’s greatest advantage. Compounding rewards those who start early, keep adding, and resist the temptation to constantly interfere. The market will always offer reasons to panic at the bottom and feel invincible near the top. The real edge is staying rational when everyone else is emotional. I’d rather own a few businesses with durable moats, strong ROIC and long reinvestment runways than constantly rotate into whatever is trending. Investing isn’t about being right every quarter. It’s about survivi
avatar苏36
09-29
BitMine crossing 6 million ETH is impressive, but the bigger story may be what happens after the accumulation. With 5.07 million ETH already staked, BitMine is turning a massive ETH treasury into a potential recurring-yield engine. The company currently cites a 2.62% annualized 7-day staking yield and projects about $358 million in annualized staking revenue. But investors should separate ETH appreciation from staking economics. A 2.62% yield sounds attractive until ETH falls 20%—staking income cannot fully offset a large decline in the underlying asset. That makes BMNR an interesting experiment: it is not simply betting on ETH’s price, but on ETH as a productive treasury asset. The real question is whether staking rewards can compound the treasury faster than dilution, financing costs an
avatar苏36
10-12
As the Q3 earnings season kicks off, bank performance hinges on the tug-of-war between strong Net Interest Income (NII) and accelerating deposit costs. While high benchmark rates bolster yields, balance sheet strength dictates who truly outperforms Among major Wall Street institutions, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stands out as the ultimate winner. JPM’s unrivaled capital fortress, disciplined risk management, and dominant deposit franchise allow it to navigate credit normalization far better than peers. Unlike competitors constrained by rising funding expenses, JPM continues capturing market share across retail and wealth management. Furthermore, its resilient corporate and investment banking pipeline provides a strong earnings engine during macro shifts While Bank of America faces softer fee ou

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