🔥 Deluge IPO: Strong Demand, but Can Profits Recover? $Deluge Corporation Limited(9DC.SI)$ attracted strong IPO demand, with its public tranche oversubscribed 11.97 times. However, the real question is whether it can turn orders into sustainable profits. Deluge reported approximately S$433 million in outstanding orders, around 3.7 times FY2026 revenue. This provides visibility, but project costs and delayed payments could pressure cash flow. FY2026 revenue declined 16.5% to S$116.66 million, while attributable profit fell 42.4% to S$8.68 million. Encouragingly, gross margin improved from 30.4% to 33.2%. At S$0.60, the IPO price implies roughly 10 times historical earnings. I remain cautiously optimistic, but would prioritise earnings recovery and cash flow over IPO hype. Strong orders attr

AI Is Booming, So Why Are Storage Stocks Falling? SNDK Deserves a Closer Look The market is sending an interesting signal: AI demand remains strong, but investors are becoming more selective about which companies can actually turn that demand into sustainable profits. On October 15, US stocks rebounded, with the Dow rising 1.08%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.33%, and the Nasdaq adding just 0.08%. Beneath the headline gains, however, technology stocks continued to show signs of weakness. Investors are increasingly questioning AI capital expenditure, financing costs, competition, and how much future growth is already priced into valuations. Today, I want to focus on a stock worth watching: $SanDisk (SNDK)$. SanDisk is not an AI chip designer or a company developing large language models. It spe

The pain of selling right before the breakout! 😭 If I had to pick the absolute worst moment, it’s definitely "Selling right before it rockets." You hold a stock through endless sideways churn, lose patience, and sell—only to watch it launch to the moon 10 minutes later! It feels like the market was just waiting for me to leave. Trading has taught me that controlling emotions is way harder than reading charts. We’ve all been there! @TigerEvents [喷血]

My Take: ③ Limited commercial value — Robotaxi and Optimus are the real priorities. The new Roadster may be an engineering marvel, but investors must distinguish spectacle from economic value. A car that accelerates in 0.81 seconds grabs headlines, but headlines do not guarantee revenue or profits. Limited production and years of delays make the Roadster unlikely to transform Tesla’s financial performance. Its real value may lie in strengthening Tesla’s brand and showcasing engineering capabilities, although the commercial benefits remain unproven. Tesla’s bigger challenge is turning autonomous driving and robotics into scalable, profitable businesses. My conclusion: The Roadster can sell the dream, but Robotaxi and Optimus must deliver earnings. Investors should prioritize commercial resu

🅲 It depends. I'd be more selective about which AI stocks I own. TSMC’s results reveal an important distinction: AI demand can remain strong while stocks deliver disappointing returns. Revenue surged 41%, profits hit a record, and fourth-quarter guidance exceeded expectations. Yet the stock fell. Investors now want proof that massive AI investments can generate sustainable returns. The risk isn't that AI demand disappears, but that expectations and valuations have risen so high that even excellent earnings may disappoint. AI infrastructure companies also face rising costs and uncertain returns. I'd favor businesses with strong cash flows, pricing power, and visible earnings growth over companies relying on debt and distant profit projections. My view: AI remains a long-term opportunity, bu

My biggest focus is October 21 earnings, not the Roadster spectacle. Tesla has mastered the art of selling a vision, but investors eventually need evidence that the vision can generate sustainable cash flow. The Roadster may strengthen its brand, while Terafab could offer long-term strategic value. Yet neither guarantees near-term profits. Meanwhile, Tesla’s energy-storage business deserves more attention because grid-scale demand could become a meaningful growth engine. The real investment question is whether Tesla can turn its ambitions into measurable earnings growth before market patience runs out. My view: Product launches create excitement, but execution creates shareholder value. Until Tesla delivers clearer production timelines, stronger profitability and tangible returns from new

B. Sustainable profitability Anthropic’s $16.8 billion quarterly revenue is impressive, but revenue alone cannot justify a trillion-dollar valuation. The real test is whether revenue can grow faster than computing costs. Every new customer creates potential income, but also increases inference expenses and infrastructure demands. If costs rise almost as quickly as sales, explosive growth may produce surprisingly little cash. Investors should look beyond adjusted profits and examine free cash flow, computing efficiency, and long-term capital commitments. One profitable quarter is encouraging; consistent profitability through continued expansion would be far more convincing. My view: AI’s next winners will not necessarily be the companies with the best models, but those that turn intelligen

① Healthcare — stable demand and predictable earnings. I favor healthcare, not because AI has lost its future, but because investors are reassessing distant growth. Sticky inflation and higher Treasury yields pressure businesses requiring massive capital spending before generating cash flow. Healthcare companies benefit from resilient demand and relatively stable earnings. However, defensive stocks are not automatically bargains. Patent expirations, regulatory pressure and excessive valuations can still destroy returns. The market is repricing earnings certainty. AI may continue transforming the economy, but investors are becoming less willing to pay any price for growth. My strategy: favor fairly valued healthcare companies with durable cash flows. When uncertainty rises, investors should

My pick is ASML, but only at a sensible valuation. The market is confusing short-term weakness with deteriorating fundamentals. ASML reported €11.66 billion in Q3 revenue, a 57.5% gross margin, and expects full-year sales of €44–45 billion. Customers are already discussing orders for 2029 and 2030, suggesting AI demand will endure. Morgan Stanley is also impressive, with equity-trading revenue surging 41% and wealth-management revenue reaching a record $9.07 billion. However, trading income is cyclical, and strong quarterly results may not last. My conclusion: ASML offers the stronger long-term advantage. Its EUV technology is extraordinarily difficult to replicate, creating a powerful competitive moat. But a great company isn't automatically a great investment at any price. I'd scale in g

[你懂的]  TSMC’s Profit Surges 68.7%: The Real Test Is No Longer Demand, but Valuation There is a fundamental mistake investors often make: when a company becomes more profitable, we automatically assume its stock should go higher. Reality is far more complicated. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ delivered another impressive quarterly performance, with third-quarter net income rising 68.7% year over year and gross margin reaching 66.4%. These results highlight the strength of AI-related semiconductor demand and TSMC’s ability to turn its manufacturing advantages into substantial profits. Yet rising inflation concerns, interest-rate uncertainty, and growing scrutiny of AI capital spending continue to challenge technology stocks. That raises a more important question than whe

My Take: Profits Are the Headline, But Balance Sheets Tell the Real Story. Big-bank earnings are not simply a bet on interest rates. The real question is whether profits translate into sustainable value. Higher rates boost loan yields but increase deposit costs, pressure bond portfolios, and weaken borrowers’ ability to repay. Banks can report healthy income while accumulating hidden risks. That is why tangible book value and credit-loss provisions matter. NIM measures interest profitability; tangible book value reveals what remains for shareholders. Berkshire’s continued BAC selling deserves attention, but it does not automatically signal a bearish verdict. Great investors rebalance for reasons beyond a company’s outlook. My conclusion: I would rather own a bank with resilient credit qual

3 Two themes to watch Singapore’s latest MAS decision highlights a crucial point: a stronger currency does not automatically mean a stronger economy. With Q3 GDP growing 5.4% year-on-year, AI investment supports manufacturing and trade. However, core inflation has rebounded to 2.1%, while higher energy and transport costs threaten household purchasing power. The bigger story is the balancing act. A stronger SGD helps Singapore import goods more cheaply, but can make exports less competitive. For investors holding US stocks, currency movements add another layer of risk: even when share prices rise, USD gains may translate into smaller SGD returns. My focus would be whether AI-driven growth remains sustainable and inflation genuinely cools in 2027. If AI investment slows while borrowing cos

B — Dollar-cost averaging, with one important twist. The biggest risk today isn't necessarily buying at the top; it's confusing a strong market with a risk-free market. With AI stocks driving much of the S&P 500's gains, index diversification doesn't completely eliminate concentration risk. Historically, investing a lump sum has tended to outperform spreading investments over time because markets rise more often than they fall. However, DCA can reduce emotional pressure and help investors avoid panic when prices decline. If I had $10,000, I'd invest a portion upfront and deploy the remainder over the next few months, while keeping an emergency fund separate. I'd also continue investing regardless of short-term headlines. Why? Because waiting for a 10% correction sounds sensible until t

④ Election impact is limited — earnings, the Fed and AI CapEx matter more. Markets price political expectations long before policies become reality. Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, presidential veto power and legislative gridlock could limit major policy reversals. Meanwhile, interest rates, corporate earnings and AI capital expenditure will shape valuations. The bigger risk is confusing political narratives with investment fundamentals. A crypto-friendly administration cannot guarantee COIN's profitability, just as renewable energy incentives cannot rescue an overpriced stock. Investors should focus on earnings revisions, free cash flow and valuation relative to growth. My strategy is to avoid betting on election predictions. Instead, I would monitor policy-sensitive sectors w

The AI Boom: Real Revolution, Dangerous Valuations The biggest mistake investors make is assuming revolutionary technology automatically makes every related stock a good investment. Jensen Huang may be right about AI transforming the economy, while Michael Burry may also be right that investors are overpaying. Both can be correct. The real issue is capital efficiency. Billions are flowing into chips, data centres and energy, but spending is not profitability. If AI revenues fail to justify investments, depreciation, debt costs and shrinking margins could expose weaknesses hidden by today's growth figures. My view: Don't bet against AI; question the price you pay. The next phase will reward companies that convert computing power into sustainable cash flow, not those selling the most excitin

The U.S. Consumer Is Resilient, Not Invincible Americans are still spending, but spending quality matters more than headline numbers. JPMorgan reported a 10% year-over-year increase in combined credit and debit card sales, while Bank of America data showed household card spending rose 6.2% in September. Demand remains strong despite inflation and high borrowing costs. However, strong spending does not guarantee financial health. Wealthier households can spend comfortably, while others sacrifice savings or postpone major purchases. The bigger concern is what happens if the labor market weakens while interest costs remain high. Consumers have less room to absorb shocks, especially those carrying credit-card balances. My takeaway: The consumer engine is running, but investors should watch cre

AI’s Biggest Risk Is No Longer Valuation — It’s the Cost of Money The market may be underestimating the biggest threat to the AI boom: financing costs. As inflation concerns strengthen and Treasury yields remain elevated, the Federal Reserve has less room to support expensive valuations. Goolsbee’s warning that AI-driven inflation is spreading beyond data centers adds another layer of risk. The deeper concern is that AI infrastructure spending increasingly depends on debt, while productivity gains have yet to justify the investment. If borrowing costs rise faster than AI revenues, even promising companies could face painful repricing. My view: AI is not necessarily a bubble, but its financing model deserves scrutiny. The next winners may not be companies spending the most on AI, but those