EdwardHughes
EdwardHughes
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avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-14
Public Service Announcement: Novavax will be reporting its FQ2'22 earnings on 04 August 2022.By now, NVAX only exported 157.01M of its stellar COVID-19 vaccine, at a time when the world is mostly inoculated or has obtained natural immunity.We are reiterating our previous recommendation: Sell at the peak when the US FDA finally issues their approval tomorrow.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-09-08

Shopify: Challenging Outlook As User Growth Slows

In this analysis of Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP), we examined the company as it released its quarterly earnings in July, which showed a slowdown in revenue growth to just 15% compared to its 5-year average of 64%. Moreover, excluding2020, its 5-year average growth was 59% compared to a 9-year average of 81%. We looked into the company’s user, gross merchandise value (GMV), and take rate growth.Slowing Users Growth From Average Of 50% Shopify 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average Users ('mln') 0.38 0.61 0.82 1.00 1.75 2.06 Growth % 88.75% 61.32% 34.65% 21.95% 74.90% 17.95% 49.92% Revenue ($ mln) 389.30 673.30 1,073 1,578 2,930 4,612 Growth % 89.72% 72.95% 59.39% 47.06% 85.62% 57.43% 68.70% Source: Shopify, Khaveen InvestmentsIn terms of user growth, the company’suser basehad expande
Shopify: Challenging Outlook As User Growth Slows
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-05-06

Grab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High

Grab is the number one super app in Southeast Asia, investors not familiar with it can think of it as merging Uber with a banking app. Its services include mobility, package deliveries, food deliveries, and financial services. So what is a super app? Grab imagines customers can use the app for many of their daily needs, from ordering a ride to ordering food, or even booking a hotel. Source: Grab Investor Presentation Cohort Analysis Looking at the different cohorts of users it is clear that the longer they have the app installed the more they transact on it. After three years users approximately double the transaction amount, and by year five they more than triple their transactions. This speaks to significant stickiness for the app, and it reflects high user satisfaction with it. Source:
Grab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-08-01
The uncommon phenomenon known as backwardation in VIX futures markets has recently occurred again.Persistent inflation, fears of an economic slowdown, and rising interest rates have led to a spike in the "fear index".The S&P 500 is now officially in a bear market, down more than 20% from its previous highs.ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, a popular vehicle used to invest in volatility, is up 20% this year.Is there still more room for volatility to rise? Let's discuss.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-04-12
Apple continues to innovate hardware products although growth in each product line has been erratic. Apple's hardware, despite slow and erratic growth enhances the functionality of its Services business, which is the future of the company.- Apple's stock is increasing along with the 10-year treasury rate, a positive for the company as most other technology stocks have plummeted.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-27

DiDi Slapped With Hefty $1.2 Billion Fine. How Was The Amount Determined?

Paying 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) to get rid of a nightmare: is it too much?On 21 July, the Cyberspace Administration of China released a decision on administrative penalties on DiDi Global Inc.(OTCPK:DIDIY), following a cybersecurity review into the company, and fined the company 8.026 billion yuan.According to the authority, conclusive evidence and clear facts have shown the company's egregious and malicious violations of laws and regulations including China's Cybersecurity Law, Data Security Law as well as the Personal Information Protection Law. And the chairman and CEO of the company Cheng Wei and President Liu Qing were both fined 1 million yuan personally.The fine amounted to 4.6% of the company's total operating revenue of 173.8 billion yuan in 2021 and is the big
DiDi Slapped With Hefty $1.2 Billion Fine. How Was The Amount Determined?
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-09-01

Intel: World-Class Financial Engineering

Investment ThesisDespite some distractions like the financial engineering discussed here, overall Intel (INTC) stock remains heavily impacted by two near-term issues: the recessionary and post-COVID decline in PC demand and the lingering processdelays while Intel catches up to regain leadership in 2025. Since both of these issues will most likely end up being rather temporary, investors with a longer-term mindset could benefit from the current stock weakness.Financial engineering: Smart CapitalIntel initially announced its memorandum of understanding with Brookfield in February as part of its Investor Meeting, and as part of its “Smart Capital” strategy, which Intel first talked about late last year when it had delayed its 2021 Investor Meeting to February. Smart capital is an umbrella ter
Intel: World-Class Financial Engineering
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-09-01
Senior Shopify manager Ana Raman answers a question about how significant a threat Buy with Prime is to SFN at the August Canaccord Growth Conference mentioned earlier. The point is made that it is great for merchants if Amazon is coming over their walled gardens and helping independent merchants. Still, Amazon is customer-focused while Shopify is merchant-focused. Amazon is not as good as Shopify in terms of letting merchants own their buyers, channels, data and brand.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-26

Upstart: Fool Me Once, Shame On You, Fool Me Twice...

Shame on me. This is the second time Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) has forced me to write an article about them sooner than I intended. At this point, if you follow Upstart then you most likely saw the news that they announced Q2 preliminary financial resultsearly, and they weren't pretty. They missed big on both revenue and net income. The stock responded accordingly, dropping 20% on Friday. I'll break down the press release and what it means for the company going forward.Wall Street Got What They Asked ForWhen Upstart reported Q1 earnings, they announced that the market for their loans had softened and so they stepped in with their balance sheet to make up the difference. That means they used their own cash to fund about $150M in personal loans. The market did not take kindly to this a
Upstart: Fool Me Once, Shame On You, Fool Me Twice...
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-01
On the back of global inflationary pressures and the supply concerns have been on a sharply risingtrend.Fuelled by a widened crack spread, the increase in jet fuel price was even steepernow standing at over US$180/bbl and matching the historical high last seen in 2008.The high jet fuel prices are expected to lead airfares to stabilise at a higher equilibrium level.While we believe that the strong pent-up air travel demand being fulfilled currently and in the upcoming months would be relatively more inelastic to higher airfares a sustained high jet fuel price(and the resultant high airfares) may eventually dampen the air travel demand in the longer term.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-08-11

Microsoft Is Not Entirely Recession Proof

The last time I mentioned Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT) in a full-length article waslast September here. I suggested an exceptionally stretched overvaluation would make serious price gains difficult to achieve. While a final price top did not appearfor a few months, this forecast proved more correct than not, as Big Tech names hit the skids in the first half of 2022.Nearly a year after mySellcall on Microsoft, I am still quite concerned about its valuation, which remains extended for a "slowing" growth selection. In addition, free cash flow generation of 3% does not come close to matching 8.5% CPI over the past 12 months. Outside of its early days of super-high growth in the 1980s and 1990s, Microsoft has NEVER been this expensive vs. cost-of-living changes. Consequently, I am not exactly bu
Microsoft Is Not Entirely Recession Proof
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-04-26
American Airlines guided to strong Q2'22 results including record revenues. The airline has easily overcome fuel prices up 60% due to much higher TRASM. Most analysts remain neutral or bearish on the stock providing plenty of catalysts for higher prices. The stock trades at just 5x normalized PE estimates as debt is repaid over the next few years.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-06-16

Singapore Banking Monthly - Interest Rates Continue To Rise

Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain positive on banks. Bank dividend yields are attractive with upside surprise due to excess capital ratios. Improving economic conditions and rising interest rates remain tailwinds for the banking sector. SGX (SGX:S68) is another beneficiary of higher interest rates.3M-SOR And 3M-SIBOR Up Interest rates continued to increase. The 3M-SOR was up 41bps m-o-m to 1.47%, while the 3M-SIBOR was up 27bps m-o-m to 1.21%. The 3M-SOR is 93bps higher than its 1Q22 average of 0.54% and has improved by 120bps y-o-y. The 3M- SIBOR is 68bps higher than its 1Q22 average of 0.53% and has improved by 77bps y-o-y.Five Digital Banking Licenses Awarded In MalaysiaMalaysia’s central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), announced the five digital banking license winners on 29 Apr. They a
Singapore Banking Monthly - Interest Rates Continue To Rise
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-04-27

Palantir: New Market Environment, Old Problems

Intro & Thesis So far I have published a total of 3 articles about Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) on Seeking Alpha - the last one is from early November. Since then, the stock has fallen an average of 51%, whilethe market has corrected only 4.71% (also an average): It cannot be said that I predicted the fall of PLTR - rather, such a deep correction of the stock took place against the backdrop of the fall of the Nasdaq Composite, which is now 20% below its November highs. In my opinion, however, the facts I pointed out in my articles were the reason PLTR fell so low - in particular, I wrote about the merciless dilution of shareholder value due to the SBC program continuation, the severe discrepancy between the company's revenues and expenses, and a grossly inflated valuation of PLTR as if the c
Palantir: New Market Environment, Old Problems
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-04-06
The market hasn't dropped yet because people "still believe" the second they snap out of the illusion which I think will be in the next few months once people start living again at 100% the jig is up and pop goes through.Amazon can close those union warehouses easily.Union workers will pit against the non union...Or just raised the cost of goods shipping out from the union warehouses$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-04-03

Why Shares of Alibaba, DiDi Global, and Futu Are Rising

Some good news came out today regarding the ongoing auditing dispute between U.S. and Chinese financial regulators. What happened Shares of Chinese stocks rose today on news that Chinese regulators may cooperate with U.S. financial regulators and allow them to audit the current financials of Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges, potentially ending a feud that has lasted for decades. Shares of DiDi Global ( DIDI 12.80% ) had risen roughly 9% and shares of Alibaba Group Holding ( BABA 1.29% ) traded nearly 3% higher as of 12:27 p.m. ET today. Shares of Futu Holdings ( FUTU 6.26% ) were up nearly 11.5% earlier in the day before giving back much of those gains, likely due to broader market trends. So what U.S. regulators have long been frustrated with Chinese companies that trade on U.S. e
Why Shares of Alibaba, DiDi Global, and Futu Are Rising
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-05-10
Occidental Petroleum has been a stock that we've tracked since it was a small percentage of its current price. The company still has massive cash flow at current prices and it's continuing to improve its share price and drive shareholder rewards. The company's recent share price run-up means there's better sources to deploy new cash. We still see the company as having strong potential from its current share price levels.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-08-18
A friendly reminder that XPeng will be reporting FQ2'22 earnings approximately on 25 August 2022.XPEV's July delivery showed the impact of China's ongoing Zero COVID Policy and continued shortage in chips availability.Its decision to slash prices to entice buyers in this inflationary environment highlights a further contraction of its minimal margins.Due to the speculative nature of XPEV, this stock is only suitable for investors who have a higher tolerance for risk.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-06-01
With P/E valuations of 16.44x, FB is the best value buy in the FAANG category now.Investors will be buying into the world's most popular social media company with robust operating metrics, excellent FCF, and massive future potential.FB is also expected to successfully navigate temporary headwinds since it is an industry-wide issue that also affects GOOG.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-26
SingTel (SGX:Z74) is set to deliver a 3-year earnings CAGR (FY22-25F) of 15% vs -12% during the COVID-19 period (FY19-22). This reflects monetisation of 5G in Singapore and Australia, absence of digital losses (from Amobee), double-digit NCS growth and associates benefitting from the economic reopening.A regional data centre is shaping up as SingTel aims to add another 100MW of capacity in the next 3-5 years to build a data centre portfolio worth S$7b-8b.

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