EdwardHughes
EdwardHughes
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avatarEdwardHughes
2022-12-05

Stuck In Covid-Induced Hardship, Lufax Loan Portfolio Shrinks For First Time

The online loan facilitator is bearing more credit risk as its use of third parties to insure and guarantee the loans it brokers becomes costlierLufax Holding Ltd.(NYSE:LU), the largest of China's online loan facilitators, appears caught between a rock and a hard place as Beijing sticks to its "zero Covid" policies.One special feature of the Ping An Insurance-backed (OTCPK:PNGAY; 2318.HK; 601318.SH) company's business model, targeting "unmet demand" for credit among small business owners, has been its role connecting institutional lenders and borrowers without directly exposing itself to a lot of credit risk. It does that by using third-party companies to insure or guarantee the loans it arranges.But costs for loan insurance and guarantees have also risen due to higher default ri
Stuck In Covid-Induced Hardship, Lufax Loan Portfolio Shrinks For First Time
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-11-04

Rivian: Priced To Perfection; Little Room To Misstep

ThesisIn my opinion, Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is a speculative story-based long-duration asset that is priced to perfection.Valuedat a one-year forward EV/Sales of about x10, the company has arguably little room to misstep.But on 10 Octobera major misstep happened: Rivian hasannounceda recall ofnearly allof the company's past EV deliveries. The trading day following the news, RIVN shares have lost as much as 11%.I don't think Rivian's long-term prospects will be severely impacted by the EV vehicle recall. But still, the company's valuation is simply too high for investing with the risks associated to a story-led business case - especially given the current environment with depressed sentiment towards growth stock.Rivian stock is down some 80% YTD. But there is still excessive risk in the compa
Rivian: Priced To Perfection; Little Room To Misstep
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-11-03
NVDA’s partnership with OCI could help negate the adverse developments that have cropped up due to geopolitical risks.NVDA’s powerful AI-ready infrastructure feels like a good fit to harness Oracle’s deep data repositories.NVDA’s forward valuations look attractive and the risk-reward on the weekly chart does not look too bad.However, institutions still continue to shun the stock, and it does not look like it will be an apt rotation candidate for those fishing in the semiconductor or AI arenas.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-11-02
Uber continues to show strong momentum in revenue growth.The cash flow, cash position, and profitability metrics of the company have also continued to display strength.Overall, the platform appears healthy, growing, and increasingly profitable.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-11-01

Li Auto: This Top EV Growth Stock Is On Sale

Li Auto is too cheap to ignoreLi Auto’s EPS predictions imply that the market expects the company to achieve its first small profit in FY 2022… which means Li Auto is expected to reach profitability sooner than its rivals NIO and XPeng. NIO is expected to see its first profits in FY 2024 while XPeng is expected to turn a profit in FY 2025.Based off of revenue predictions, Li Auto has a P-S ratio of 1.6 X which makes the EV company cheaper than NIO which has a P-S ratio of 2.2 X.Risks with Li AutoLi Auto has two main commercial risks: (1) The slowdown in delivery growth is set to impact the speed with which revenues are ramping up,(2) Vehicle margins for Li Auto have started to drop which indicates growing cost and margin pressures… in both cases this could translate to a lower valuation fa
Li Auto: This Top EV Growth Stock Is On Sale
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-11-01
Back in September 2021,Moderna's and Merck's market cap valuation were only a few billions apart at ~$175bn and ~$182bn, respectively.As the more diversified, future-proofed pharma, it makes sense that Merck's valuation has increased while Moderna's has tanked.Merck announced yesterday that it will take up an option to partner with Moderna on development of a cancer vaccine used as an adjuvant alongside Keytruda.Results from a Phase 2 study of the vaccine / Keytruda combo in melanoma will be available before the end of the year.Positive results would validate Moderna's technology outside of COVID and likely make the company much more valuable. Merck would benefit from another blockbuster asset and ongoing superiority of Keytruda.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-28

AMD Q3: Don't Lose Your Money

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is scheduled to host its Q3 earnings call after market close this Tuesday, November 1. Although the company has already released a dismal set of preliminary Q3 numbers, there’s still a lot of uncertainty aboutthe extent of its sales slump. So, in addition to tracking its headline financial figures, investors may also want to monitor its purchase commitments, guidance for the next quarter or two and its management's comments about their production trends amidst a recessionary environment. These items will better highlight where AMD and its shares may be headed next. Let’s take a closer look at it all.The Preliminary NumbersFor the uninitiated, AMDpre-releasedits Q3 financials earlier this month on October 6. Its top brass was forecasting revenue of
AMD Q3: Don't Lose Your Money
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-28
Wall Street and three of the last four Seeking Alpha articles have buy ratings on Roblox stock.There are several highly-concerning trends in recent results that point to further downside.I present the opposing viewpoint below and urge caution for investors.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-28

Mullen: Don't Burn Your Fingers Again

At the right part of the Seeking Alpha screen, I constantly see the ticker — MULN that recently seems to be often in green. When I googled it, a nostalgic feeling seized me. Winter 2020. It’s freezing cold. But you don’t feel the cold because your mind waspreoccupied with GameStop (GME) setting a new share price record every day. It seemed that gold was here; you just needed to reach out a hand to touch it. After such a severe market selloff, there is an impression that a new golden bull is found: an automotive company called Mullen (NASDAQ:MULN). Many bloggers believe that Mullen can become the GameStop of 2022 and the recent share price drop from 13 USD in November 2021 to 0.5 USD presents a strong buying opportunity. As my subscribers already know, I love thinking critically and looking
Mullen: Don't Burn Your Fingers Again
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-26
Tilray Brands fell after reporting another weak quarter for the period ending in August.The Canadian cannabis stock had rallied on hopes the U.S. would finally legalized weed.The stock isn't the best way to play U.S. legalization with a whole host of smaller U.S. MSOs the ones likely to see the biggest gains.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-25

Occidental Petroleum: Exit Point

As predicted, Occidental Petroleum(NYSE:OXY) has rallied to $70 providing an ideal exit point. Warrant Buffett has continued snapping up shares, but the investment guru shows no interest in paying premium prices for the energy stock. Myinvestment thesisis Bearish on Oxy now trading at levels where Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B) appears uninterested in snapping up shares.Buffett Not Paying Above $60Warren Buffett clearly wants to purchase as much of Oxy as possible with his investment firm now owning 194 million shares. Berkshire Hathaway last bought1.7 million shareson September 28 at an average price of $60.71.Source: FinVizThe company bought all of the previous shares since March in the $50 price range. Amazingly, Oxy hasn't traded below $60 for many days since March, yet Berkshire
Occidental Petroleum: Exit Point
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-24
The board of directors of Yusheng Culture (01859) received that on October 11, 2022, Mr. Liu Mu, chairman of the board of directors, executive director and controlling shareholder of the company, Double K Limited (all of its issued share capital is owned by Mr. Liu Mu) has sold 179.6 million shares to Memory Ocean Technology Limited (Buyer 2).What am I gonna do? Maybe it's time to look for another stock.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-24

This Is What Microsoft Is Doing To Protect Its Bundle

IntroductionIn this article, I would like to start with a recent announcement that Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) made and then show how, even though it may be of little relevance, it offers once again the opportunity to understand how Microsoftruns its business and, most important, defends its wide moat.I really enjoy carrying out this kind of research, especially when I have to deal with a very large company such as Microsoft. In fact, I think that very often, understanding well how one particular choice works, enables me to get a grasp of the whole company better than if I were to analyze only its financials without diving into some of its operations.Microsoft DesignerLet's get to the announcement:Microsoft is launching Microsoft Designer, a graphic design app in Microsoft 365 that helps users
This Is What Microsoft Is Doing To Protect Its Bundle
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-21
Unity’s heavy investments in R&D, coupled with a weak macro environment, mean the stock may continue to struggle in the short term. If the integration of ironSource can be successfully executed, a rebound in advertising and the commercialization of Weta tools should set Unity up well for the long term. The stock’s current valuation is more than reasonable given the company’s long-term prospects, although this is unlikely to matter in the short term due to Unity’s ongoing losses.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-20

How Amazon Is Advancing Its Moat Against Shopify

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) has been building out its own Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN] to challenge Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) fulfillment services, its own marketplace through the Shop app to better compete with the Amazon marketplace, and is striving to enhancepenetration of its payment solutions to drive future revenue growth. Amazon has not taken Shopify's growth efforts lightly. Fulfillment By Amazon (FBA) and the Amazon marketplace are key elements of Amazon's moat, which it is leveraging against Shopify and other ecommerce website developers to defend its dominance and fend off growing competition. We will assess Amazon's advancement strategies, and whether Shopify is well-positioned to defend its position in the ecommerce industry.Amazon was already leveraging its fulfillment prowess thro
How Amazon Is Advancing Its Moat Against Shopify
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-20

Carnival Corporation: The Boat Is Sinking

From the tones held in Q3, management seemed quite satisfied with the results achieved; however, as far as I am concerned there are still too many concerns related mainly to debt. The summer session is the most profitable period for cruise companiesand I would have expected better results.Continuous losses and unsustainable interestsThe goal of this paragraph is to understand whether from a profitability perspective Carnival (NYSE:NYSE:CCL) is returning to pre-pandemic levels, which is why I will compare thisQ3 2022withQ3 2019. Comparing this quarter with 2020 and 2021 I think is only misleading since the company was severely limited in its operations due to the pandemic-related restrictions. The results in 2020 and 2021 were awful and would overestimate Q3 2022 growth. Also, making a comp
Carnival Corporation: The Boat Is Sinking
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-17

GameStop: This Meme Stock Could Be On Its Way To Penny Stock Price Levels

Thesis:GameStop (NYSE:GME) took the investing world for a run with its epic short squeeze in January of 2021. While the market has seen short squeezes occur in the past, GameStop’s was fueled by an internet community looking tostick it to hedge funds. All the more interesting, GameStop’s backers have been relentlessly holding their positions, some with tempting amounts of profit. Regardless, I personally believe GameStop is not poised well for the current market conditions looming and ahead. Rising interest rates, high inflation, and overall economic turmoil likely won’t bode well for this meme stock. Icovered GameStopback in May using technical analysis, predicting the stock was headed down. However, GameStop didn't have the stiff macro headwinds that it's facing now. This article will co
GameStop: This Meme Stock Could Be On Its Way To Penny Stock Price Levels
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-13
Bed Bath & Beyond has been driven into the ground by ineffective management, exacerbated by a weakening economy.I believe the company’s losses are likely to continue and there is little upside even if it turns around.Recommend selling calls on BBBY stock to generate income.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-12

Bank of America: Candle In The Wind

Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) year-to-date slump shouldn't be a surprise as it is a cyclical asset that exhibits excess sensitivity to the broader market. I wanted to cover the stock as I believeWarren Buffett's favoritebankis in a binary situation. I say this because the bank portrays solid performance attributes in some areas but tremendously weak features in others.I did everything I could to formulate an independent, objective, and accurate conclusion for our readers. Here's what I encountered.Operational Review & Risk AnalysisFirstly, let's run through the bank's Basel III framework, as it's the cornerstone of most banks' financial health. If this part of the article is trivial to you, I suggest skipping to the next, as some of the "down the line" content isn't something you'd see
Bank of America: Candle In The Wind
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-10-11
In other words, while Regal probably does suffer froma structural inefficiency, it's the same inefficiency its competitors suffer from. There is nothing inherently less efficient about Regal compared to AMC or Cinemark. This is an industry-wide problem.This is why the bankruptcy may not help AMC much. Since Regal theaters are just as (in)efficient as AMC's, the bankruptcy court might very well leave them to continue to operate, while conducting a debt-to-equity conversion to secure the capital needed to pay off the judgement and other expenses.There's no way to know that, of course, and I don't dismiss the possibility of a trimming of the theater fleet or perhaps even a wholesale liquidation. In any oversupplied industry, a bankruptcy can be a perfect opportunity to trim costs by closing l

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