1. On Tuesday, December 23, US stock index futures for the three major indices all declined in pre-market trading. As of writing, Dow futures fell 0.05%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.03%. 2. Meanwhile, European markets showed mixed performance: Germany’s DAX rose 0.07%, the UK’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.22%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.13%. 3. In commodities, WTI crude oil gained 0.17% to $58.11 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.21% to $62.20 per barrel.
**Market Highlights:** - **US Q3 GDP Data Release Tonight**: The US economy likely expanded at a solid pace in Q3, driven by steady consumer spending and business investment. However, growth momentum appears to have moderated due to rising living costs and the recent government shutdown. Estimates suggest GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3%, down from 3.8% in Q2. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will also release preliminary corporate profits and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) figures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned the shutdown could shave 1.0–2.0 percentage points off Q4 GDP, with $7–14 billion in permanent losses. - **Bank of America CEO on AI’s Economic Impact**: CEO Brian Moynihan stated that surging AI investments could significantly boost the US economy. He noted AI’s growing marginal impact, with the bank forecasting 2.4% GDP growth in 2025, up from ~2% this year. Moynihan acknowledged labor market softening but viewed it as normalization. - **Oppenheimer’s Bullish Seasonal Outlook**: The "Santa Claus Rally" (December 24–January 5) historically delivers strong returns, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.6% gain since 1928 (77% success rate). Oppenheimer’s Ari H. Wald highlighted that January’s "January Effect" also shows promising signals based on the index’s position relative to its 200-day moving average. - **Trump Administration’s Immigration Policy**: The government tripled voluntary repatriation bonuses to $3,000 for undocumented immigrants agreeing to leave by year-end, aiming to expedite deportations and cut enforcement costs. - **Fund Managers’ Record-Low Cash Levels**: Bank of America’s survey revealed cash holdings dropped to a historic low of 3.3% of AUM, with bullish positioning in equities and commodities at a February 2022 high.
**Key Stock Movers:** - **Novo Nordisk (NVO.US)**: Shares surged 7.5% pre-market after FDA approval of its oral weight-loss pill, intensifying competition with Eli Lilly (LLY.US). - **Amazon’s Zoox (AMZN.US)**: Recalled 332 autonomous vehicles due to software glitches causing unsafe lane deviations at intersections. - **Larry Ellison’s Warner Bros. (WBD.US) Bid**: Oracle’s founder pledged over $40B in personal guarantees for a potential acquisition, potentially reshaping his wealth portfolio. - **ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM.US)**: Shares rose nearly 9% pre-market after disclosing multiple buyout offers for its outstanding shares. - **JPMorgan (JPM.US) Crypto Plans**: Exploring institutional crypto trading services, signaling deeper Wall Street involvement in digital assets.
**Upcoming Economic Data (Beijing Time):** - 21:30: US Q3 GDP (annualized q/q), Core PCE, Durable Goods Orders. - 22:15: Industrial Production. - 23:00: Consumer Confidence Index. - Next day 02:00: US Rig Count. - Next day 05:30: API Crude Oil Stocks.
