On December 30, MEDTIDE (03880) is set to face the expiration of its cornerstone investor lock-up period. Prior to this, the company's stock had endured a three-month downtrend, hitting a new low since its listing. Since its debut on June 30 this year, MEDTIDE initially rode the tailwinds of a bull market in Hong Kong's innovative drug stocks and a recovery in the CXO sector, staging a rally. On August 21, MEDTIDE's intraday price peaked at HK$41.72, marking a new high since its IPO. However, influenced by subsequent sector volatility, the stock experienced a significant pullback, with its average daily price hovering below the IPO price from late November to early December. It wasn't until December 15 that MEDTIDE's share price began to rebound, charting a path of "eight consecutive gains" in a steady climb, just 15 days before its cornerstone lock-up expiration.
Although only listed for half a year, MEDTIDE's chart has already painted a classic "V-shape" pattern, delineating two distinct phases: an initial rise followed by a subsequent decline. The first leg of the rally commenced on July 14, when the stock surged 18.24% in a single day, propelling its price into overbought territory. Buoyed by high market sentiment towards Hong Kong's innovative drug and CXO sectors at the time, MEDTIDE's price found support after just three trading days of correction, entering a phase of sideways consolidation largely between the upper and middle Bollinger Bands. Following a three-day correction from August 1 to August 5, the average daily trading volume for MEDTIDE dropped below 100,000 shares, even dipping to a mere 41,700 shares on August 8, indicating pronounced reluctance to sell among existing shareholders.
As consensus strengthened among holders, divergence emerged externally, with some cash-rich investors choosing to buy the dip, thereby supporting MEDTIDE's August performance. However, judging by trading volume momentum, a clear lack of sustained momentum was evident externally during the main upward wave from August 8 to August 22. Specifically, in the initial phase from August 8 to August 14, daily trading volume rose from 41,700 shares to 344,300 shares, but failed to increase significantly thereafter; even by August 21, volume had not surpassed one million shares, markedly lower than levels seen during the July rally. The consequence of lacking buying support was continuous price pressure from existing shareholders over the next month and a half, resulting in a volatile downtrend.
From a technical perspective, from August 25 to September 11, MEDTIDE's price oscillated downward from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band, including a 5.15% drop on September 9 that further widened the Bollinger Band's downward expansion. Although there were signs of a staged rebound afterwards, with prices fluctuating around the middle Bollinger Band and even touching the upper band again in mid-November, no significant volume amplification or a solid bullish candlestick breakout was observed, constituting a technical "false breakout" according to Bollinger Band indicators. Consequently, after again lacking sufficient buying support, MEDTIDE's stock experienced a rapid decline over six consecutive trading days, subsequently oscillating within the expanding range between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands.
It is worth noting that during its IPO in June, MEDTIDE attracted two cornerstone investors who collectively subscribed to approximately 2.565 million shares (worth USD 10 million), accounting for 15.27% of the global offering and 1.81% of the total shares post-offering. These shares are set to be unlocked on December 30. Compared to other companies facing similar lock-up expirations, the proportion of shares locked up for MEDTIDE's cornerstone investors is not high. Notably, just one month before the unlock, the company's stock price was still trading below its IPO price of HK$30.60. Viewed from this angle, the recent "eight consecutive gains" appear to be an effort to lift the price back towards the IPO level ahead of the lock-up expiration. As of December 24, MEDTIDE's share price had recovered to HK$30.26, leaving it just a step away from its IPO price.
In recent years, the fervor surrounding the GLP-1 sector needs little elaboration. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the global peptide drug market, measured by sales revenue, grew from $60.7 billion in 2018 to $89.5 billion in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1%, and is projected to further expand to $261.2 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.6%. Within this, the Chinese peptide drug market grew from RMB 48.2 billion in 2018 to RMB 59.7 billion in 2023 (CAGR 4.4%), and is expected to reach RMB 251.2 billion by 2032 (CAGR 17.3%). However, just as the market marvels at this "blue ocean" opportunity, leading players and some investors are quietly entering a phase of "strategic reassessment."
On August 5 this year, while reporting its Q2 earnings, Pfizer unexpectedly announced the termination of eight clinical-stage projects, including its final GLP-1 receptor agonist candidate, PF-06954522, effectively marking the exit of all three of its GLP-1 pipeline candidates. If Pfizer's pipeline cuts represent a strategic retreat from the GLP-1 race, then just two days later, Eli Lilly, despite reporting strong Q2 2025 results, saw its stock plunge 14%, partly due to disappointing clinical data for its oral weight-loss drug Orforglipron, triggering panic selling. Similarly, Novo Nordisk, while announcing its Q2 2025 results, updated its pipeline, disclosing the termination of clinical trials for two weight-loss drugs. Behind these moves lies the dual pressure of intensifying competition and shrinking profit margins in the GLP-1 market.
Currently, there are nearly two hundred GLP-1 related drug candidates in development globally, with close to a hundred in China alone. Furthermore, following the patent expiry of semaglutide in March 2026, eight domestic generic versions are already queued for approval. Data shows that Novo Nordisk's Cagrilintide entered Phase III clinical trials on October 7 this year, while Metsera's MET-233i entered Phase I/II trials on June 15, indicating international pharmaceutical companies are accelerating their布局 for next-generation weight-loss drugs. Additionally, Eli Lilly's flagship product, tirzepatide, has been successfully included in China's National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) this year, becoming the second major imported GLP-1 drug to enter the Chinese reimbursement market after semaglutide. This means latecomers in the GLP-1 space must not only compete on speed to market but also face a severe test of their commercial capabilities.
Taking the domestic market as an example, some viewpoints suggest that Chinese pharmaceutical companies need to accelerate innovation, with the optimal window potentially being the completion of Phase I clinical trials in both China and the US by the end of next year to avoid missing the next wave of competitive opportunities. If the global GLP-1赛道 descends into such intense competition that an increasing number of latecomers are forced to retreat, this may not bode well for MEDTIDE, which is actively building its peptide CDMO business.
From a business perspective, MEDTIDE has established a global presence, with projects spanning over 50 countries and services provided to more than 1,000 clients. The average collaboration duration with its top five customers annually is approximately 10 years, and its CDMO client retention rate exceeds 90%. Its operations cover key markets including China, the US, Japan, Europe, South Korea, and Australia. The company offers peptide drug development, manufacturing, and CMC regulatory submission support services compliant with major global market regulations. As of December 31, 2024, MEDTIDE had 1,217 CRO projects and 332 CDMO projects in its pipeline.
Financially, MEDTIDE reported revenues of approximately RMB 351 million, RMB 337 million, and RMB 442 million for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with corresponding profits of approximately RMB 53.98 million, RMB 48.91 million, and RMB 59.17 million. Overseas revenue increased by 32.4% from RMB 263 million in 2023 to RMB 348 million in 2024, primarily driven by increased demand from US clients focused on GLP-1 related drug development. At the end of August this year, MEDTIDE released its H1 2025 financial results, showing revenue of RMB 254 million, a 28.52% year-on-year increase, and profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 102 million, surging 101.71% year-on-year. However, with leading global GLP-1 players engaging in "defensive contraction" and secondary market risk appetite turning cautious, whether MEDTIDE can sustain its future growth trajectory remains to be seen.
