As military conflict enters its fourth week, unverified reports suggest the likelihood of negotiations is increasing following statements from Donald Trump. The escalation from military warfare to energy warfare has intensified supply chain disruptions across critical global sectors including international oil, defense, shipping, minerals, agriculture, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Tungsten, often termed the "war metal," has seen significant price increases since the beginning of the year. Aluminum prices have also surged due to shipping disruptions, reaching their highest level in four years. Urea prices have hit new highs since 2022. Recently, the price of helium, a key raw material in high-end manufacturing, has risen rapidly due to partial shutdowns at Qatari facilities. More critically, if supply cannot be restored promptly, global chip production could be affected.
On February 28, 2026, Iran, in retaliation for joint U.S.-Israel strikes, announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point in the global energy supply chain. Subsequently, on March 2, Iran launched drone attacks on the Ras Laffan facility owned by Qatar's state energy company, forcing the world's largest liquefied natural gas plant to halt production of natural gas and its by-product, helium. By mid-March, the Ras Laffan facility was attacked again, suffering extensive damage that led to the complete shutdown of all three helium production facilities in Qatar. Official assessments described the damage as "large-scale" and "severe." Given the complexity of the liquefied natural gas and helium refining equipment, repairs are expected to take several years. As a result, Qatar's state energy company has formally declared a state of "force majeure," projecting a 14% reduction in annual helium exports. Qatar supplies approximately 30% of the world's helium.
The impact extends beyond production. Helium transport vessels are currently stranded at sea, leading to inventory losses and making the reallocation of containers and alternative supply routes a prolonged and challenging process. Helium molecules are extremely small and require strict storage and transportation conditions, necessitating specialized liquid helium tank containers that cost millions of dollars each. Approximately 200 such containers are currently stuck in the Middle East, with almost no idle backup containers available globally. These insulated containers can maintain liquid helium for only 35 to 48 days; beyond this period, the helium will vaporize and escape through pressure release valves, resulting in waste. This implies that about one-third of the global helium supply may be unavailable for an extended period. Spot prices for helium have doubled within 14 days of the crisis, and long-term contracts, which dominate the market, have seen surcharges exceed 30%. If the shutdown persists, prices could rise further. A precedent exists: following the Russia-Ukraine conflict four years ago, liquid helium prices surged from 80 yuan per liter to 400 yuan, causing many domestic research institutions to halt low-temperature experiments due to helium shortages.
Despite its scarcity, helium is hailed as "gas gold" in modern industry, with critical applications in healthcare, aerospace, and integrated circuits. In semiconductor manufacturing, helium's excellent thermal conductivity makes it nearly irreplaceable. Its most essential role is as a coolant in the chip etching process. During wafer processing, etching generates substantial heat, and technicians must continuously blow helium onto the back of the wafer. Helium acts as an efficient heat sink, rapidly and uniformly dissipating heat to maintain stable wafer surface temperatures. Even minor temperature fluctuations can distort micron-scale circuit patterns, rendering entire wafers useless. Moreover, high-purity helium is required for key processes such as superconducting cooling in lithography machines, precise wafer temperature control, ultra-clean protection, and mass spectrometry leak detection, with purity levels needing to exceed 99.999% (5N grade). While helium constitutes a small portion of wafer production costs, no viable alternative currently exists for wafer cooling. Without it, even the most advanced lithography machines would cease operation.
Consider that, driven by downstream AI innovation cycles, the semiconductor industry is entering a phase of large-scale orders and capital expenditure. International chip giants are shifting entirely to high-end chip production while phasing out low-end capacity, and domestic wafer fabs are actively expanding, operating at full capacity utilization last year. As the chip supply chain works diligently to fulfill downstream orders, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now gripped the global chip industry by the throat. Adjustments in supply expectations could potentially trigger a correction across the entire downstream AI产业链. Even without a full-scale shortage, chip manufacturers may be forced to prioritize production of higher-margin AI chips, which demand superior cooling and yield rates, assuming alternative supplies can be secured in time. Lower-margin consumer-grade products may face production cuts or soaring costs due to lower helium allocation priority.
In recent years, helium demand has grown steadily alongside rapid developments in semiconductors and aerospace, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest market, led by China, South Korea, and Japan. On Monday, semiconductor sectors in Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean markets experienced significant volatility. South Korean chip giants bore the brunt, losing over $200 billion in market value this month as investors digested expectations of a 15–20% production decline in 2026. This reflects not only避险情绪 but also broader market concerns that helium shortages could evolve into structural deficits, severely impacting global chip production. Reports indicate that SK Hynix holds some helium inventory and has secured additional supply channels, insulating it from short-term shocks. However, mid-term risks remain—even if supply is not entirely disrupted, transitioning to verified alternative suppliers requires time. Data from the Korea International Trade Association shows that 64.7% of South Korea's helium imports in 2025 came from Qatar.
Meanwhile, domestic rare gas sectors in China have rallied around helium-related themes, with companies like Huate Gas, Jinhong Gas, Hangyang Group, Guanggang Gases, and CMC Tech witnessing recent gains. Global helium trade is dominated by a few key exporters: Qatar holds about 30% market share; the U.S. has the largest reserves but imposes clear restrictions on exports to China; Russia and Algeria are also major sources. In contrast, China's helium consumption heavily relies on imports, accounting for roughly 20% of global demand while holding only about 2% of global reserves. According to SCI99, China imported over 4,924 tons of helium in 2025, while domestic production was only 827 tons—a nearly sixfold difference. In 2025, Qatar and Russia dominated China's helium imports with 54% and 44% shares, respectively. Although China is actively promoting domestic gas source development, air extraction technology, and localization of storage equipment, reliance on supplies from the Middle East and Russia remains difficult to change in the short term.
Recent domestic exploration has made significant progress. Data from the China Geological Survey shows that, as of April 2025, newly proven helium reserves reached 4.07 billion cubic meters, with six gas fields—including Sulige and Fuling—each holding over 200 million cubic meters, several of which are commercially viable. In 2025, 48 companies in China had helium extraction capabilities, with a total capacity of 14.6606 million cubic meters, approximately 2,628 tons. However, capacity does not directly translate to output. Last year, domestic helium production was less than 900 tons, only about 30% of capacity, with many facilities operating at low utilization or not yet reaching full production. The transition from exploration to stable output involves a lengthy, gradual ramp-up. In terms of storage and transportation, core equipment has been localized. Hangyang Group's 40-foot liquid helium tank containers, mass-produced and delivered in 2024, can extend无损 storage time to 80 days.
On one hand, domestic helium products are gradually replacing mid- to low-end markets; on the other, imported products via agents supplement high-end urgent needs. For example, in February last year, Guanggang Gases, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, signed a 20-year helium procurement agreement with Qatar, becoming the first and only Chinese gas company to secure such a long-term contract. This has enhanced supply chain resilience to some extent, striving to safeguard the overall security of the semiconductor supply chain amid complex international dynamics. As supply tightens, key helium-dependent industries prioritize supply security over price, making it easier for suppliers to raise quotes. Consequently, amid global helium supply constraints, semiconductor firms may accelerate stockpiling of helium and other electronic gases, with price increases ultimately benefiting domestic helium producers.
Overall, recent market movements have oscillated between risk-on and risk-off sentiments. Previously popular sectors like precious metals, chemicals, and tech stocks have undergone broad adjustments, with capital fleeing rapidly. Today's low-volume rebound indicates cautious searching for structural opportunities, though market consensus has yet to fully form, and the sustainability of leading sectors remains to be tested.
