3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years

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3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years

seekingalpha2021-06-30

Summary Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company. Amazon's empire of businesses, including ...

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kayden
·2021-06-30
coolllll
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DiamondHand9
·2021-06-30
Great
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SamYLynn
·2021-06-30
Good
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- DiamondHand9:
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  2021-06-30
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Walnutdoge
·2021-06-30
Good
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- Walnutdoge:
  K
  2021-07-15
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- Boink:
  Nice
  2021-06-30
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Sean79
·2021-06-30
Nice
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pompeepee
·2021-06-30
cool
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Jyen
·2021-06-30
Go long!
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Lester_tann
·2021-06-30
Nice
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Phyblesseth
·2021-06-30
Can I have a like pls
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Marco0os
·2021-06-30
BUY
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ils
·2021-06-30
Amazon is good for long term
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- Leotrader:
  yea
  2021-06-30
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huilly
·2021-06-30
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  ok
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dangox3
·2021-06-30
Nice
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JohnWL
·2021-06-30
WOW
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Meshaarias72
·2021-06-30
Good
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Cris2385
·2021-06-30
Great
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bebe_ufo
·2021-06-30
Okay..
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Showcase
·2021-06-30
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Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMZN","symbol_name":"亚马逊","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","article_id":"1102107523","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"translate_title":"亚马逊5年内翻两番的3个原因","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":151970230,"gmtCreate":1625062628320,"gmtModify":1703735217486,"author":{"id":"3555242378875453","authorId":"3555242378875453","name":"kayden","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f5d57789a229511fba5301ddb2f22f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555242378875453","authorIdStr":"3555242378875453"},"htmlText":"coolllll","listText":"coolllll","text":"coolllll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151970230","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151949595,"gmtCreate":1625062416317,"gmtModify":1703735204950,"author":{"id":"4087467108324120","authorId":"4087467108324120","name":"DiamondHand9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087467108324120","authorIdStr":"4087467108324120"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151949595","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151956266,"gmtCreate":1625062312155,"gmtModify":1703735195692,"author":{"id":"4087969217298310","authorId":"4087969217298310","name":"SamYLynn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2581a5661edccdf8baba42d6c0fe2d18","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087969217298310","authorIdStr":"4087969217298310"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151956266","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5081739,"gmtCreate":1625062446223,"gmtModify":1663230340632,"authorId":4087467108324120,"author":{"id":4087467108324120,"idStr":"4087467108324120","authorId":4087467108324120,"name":"DiamondHand9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151956266,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151988796,"gmtCreate":1625061767215,"gmtModify":1703735153840,"author":{"id":"3581663751997329","authorId":"3581663751997329","name":"Walnutdoge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dffb9b619f95780fbd693bae0b0ae9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581663751997329","authorIdStr":"3581663751997329"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151988796","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5231084,"gmtCreate":1626361571336,"gmtModify":1663231020126,"authorId":3581663751997329,"author":{"id":3581663751997329,"idStr":"3581663751997329","authorId":3581663751997329,"name":"Walnutdoge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dffb9b619f95780fbd693bae0b0ae9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151988796,"type":1,"supId":5081655,"prevId":0,"content":"K","text":"K","html":"K"},{"id":5081655,"gmtCreate":1625062191994,"gmtModify":1663230342433,"authorId":3584620238111631,"author":{"id":3584620238111631,"idStr":"3584620238111631","authorId":3584620238111631,"name":"Boink","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c209643e8a7d239ba24db30470811841","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151988796,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151981660,"gmtCreate":1625061745050,"gmtModify":1703735150544,"author":{"id":"4088082204944440","authorId":"4088082204944440","name":"Sean79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71fffee721868b6b91994dbb33ce01b8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088082204944440","authorIdStr":"4088082204944440"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151981660","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151932503,"gmtCreate":1625061273702,"gmtModify":1703735126882,"author":{"id":"3577522329316309","authorId":"3577522329316309","name":"pompeepee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577522329316309","authorIdStr":"3577522329316309"},"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151932503","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151997037,"gmtCreate":1625061047529,"gmtModify":1703735115713,"author":{"id":"3576135505707768","authorId":"3576135505707768","name":"Jyen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e6375f3ec665599c9d6faa652445e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576135505707768","authorIdStr":"3576135505707768"},"htmlText":"Go long!","listText":"Go long!","text":"Go long!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151997037","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151905561,"gmtCreate":1625060741553,"gmtModify":1703735100030,"author":{"id":"3576116386418477","authorId":"3576116386418477","name":"Lester_tann","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576116386418477","authorIdStr":"3576116386418477"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151905561","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151906472,"gmtCreate":1625060683096,"gmtModify":1703735097038,"author":{"id":"3585632581777273","authorId":"3585632581777273","name":"Phyblesseth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94a6d6499d96f0da3914b31c2f0eb66","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585632581777273","authorIdStr":"3585632581777273"},"htmlText":"Can I have a like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Can I have a like pls&nbsp;","text":"Can I have a like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151906472","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151074659,"gmtCreate":1625060482671,"gmtModify":1703735087115,"author":{"id":"3575372039876731","authorId":"3575372039876731","name":"Marco0os","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46598c0c790e4ea6b524daef7d5f0d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575372039876731","authorIdStr":"3575372039876731"},"htmlText":"BUY","listText":"BUY","text":"BUY","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151074659","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151070258,"gmtCreate":1625060277674,"gmtModify":1703735076672,"author":{"id":"3568890919326854","authorId":"3568890919326854","name":"ils","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a72854f276a4356cfa05e00cab8f047","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568890919326854","authorIdStr":"3568890919326854"},"htmlText":"Amazon is good for long term","listText":"Amazon is good for long term","text":"Amazon is good for long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151070258","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5081854,"gmtCreate":1625062874496,"gmtModify":1663230339531,"authorId":3581849508907303,"author":{"id":3581849508907303,"idStr":"3581849508907303","authorId":3581849508907303,"name":"Leotrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151070258,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yea","text":"yea","html":"yea"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151058487,"gmtCreate":1625059780949,"gmtModify":1703735054571,"author":{"id":"3584235357352543","authorId":"3584235357352543","name":"huilly","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/b7a1fde5f6063db10091e669c2cc21f3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584235357352543","authorIdStr":"3584235357352543"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151058487","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5081069,"gmtCreate":1625060218426,"gmtModify":1663230334868,"authorId":3579253238684353,"author":{"id":3579253238684353,"idStr":"3579253238684353","authorId":3579253238684353,"name":"computers80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43a3c84885b9d5e8a51ea009efa7cf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151058487,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151051389,"gmtCreate":1625059640841,"gmtModify":1703735052253,"author":{"id":"3586236821517169","authorId":"3586236821517169","name":"dangox3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586236821517169","authorIdStr":"3586236821517169"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151051389","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5081071,"gmtCreate":1625060224964,"gmtModify":1663230334868,"authorId":3579253238684353,"author":{"id":3579253238684353,"idStr":"3579253238684353","authorId":3579253238684353,"name":"computers80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43a3c84885b9d5e8a51ea009efa7cf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151051389,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151025364,"gmtCreate":1625059198458,"gmtModify":1703735043394,"author":{"id":"3586310790127154","authorId":"3586310790127154","name":"JohnWL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b004d29f43f551bb076fcdd2e281d3a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586310790127154","authorIdStr":"3586310790127154"},"htmlText":"WOW","listText":"WOW","text":"WOW","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151025364","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5081077,"gmtCreate":1625060238604,"gmtModify":1663230338252,"authorId":3579253238684353,"author":{"id":3579253238684353,"idStr":"3579253238684353","authorId":3579253238684353,"name":"computers80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43a3c84885b9d5e8a51ea009efa7cf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151025364,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151026476,"gmtCreate":1625059118795,"gmtModify":1703735041275,"author":{"id":"3577781617271173","authorId":"3577781617271173","name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorIdStr":"3577781617271173"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151026476","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5081074,"gmtCreate":1625060231381,"gmtModify":1663230338433,"authorId":3579253238684353,"author":{"id":3579253238684353,"idStr":"3579253238684353","authorId":3579253238684353,"name":"computers80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43a3c84885b9d5e8a51ea009efa7cf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151026476,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151029014,"gmtCreate":1625058791838,"gmtModify":1703735035210,"author":{"id":"3574658616925135","authorId":"3574658616925135","name":"Cris2385","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574658616925135","authorIdStr":"3574658616925135"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151029014","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5080888,"gmtCreate":1625059129089,"gmtModify":1663230334867,"authorId":3577781617271173,"author":{"id":3577781617271173,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorId":3577781617271173,"name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151029014,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Y","text":"Y","html":"Y"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151020577,"gmtCreate":1625058773399,"gmtModify":1703735034226,"author":{"id":"3581910832254205","authorId":"3581910832254205","name":"bebe_ufo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab39ed5acf5086058e17d922ab9164bc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581910832254205","authorIdStr":"3581910832254205"},"htmlText":"Okay..","listText":"Okay..","text":"Okay..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151020577","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5080889,"gmtCreate":1625059134953,"gmtModify":1663230335739,"authorId":3577781617271173,"author":{"id":3577781617271173,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorId":3577781617271173,"name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151020577,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Y","text":"Y","html":"Y"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":151067835,"gmtCreate":1625058706727,"gmtModify":1703735033055,"author":{"id":"3578739466550787","authorId":"3578739466550787","name":"Showcase","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48864a971d3cf33ae9e4aed6b49688bc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578739466550787","authorIdStr":"3578739466550787"},"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151067835","repostId":1102107523,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102107523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625058171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102107523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102107523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a r","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Imagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.</li>\n <li>Amazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.</li>\n <li>$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.</li>\n <li>Amazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.</li>\n <li>Those 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26138c41ab0116f0498e205dc805fdac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Andrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e24a9282a0c7af30d401d5ed681a15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&amp;P 500.\nS&amp;P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481b800cee26ad73776bc42cf540679d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&amp;P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2b09f0029e80868b3d337a6be1fc31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c15e1e4749f2958e4c6ceadaa33dc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3c729def2c82b8dcae89d9df47e27d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3df52b3968b654af4d086cd03c49b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>growth consensus estimates</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77887d92a577c923463c57ecaf5e5e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dee2e8b4c6e8be93ea54ae3da22414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Seeking Alpha)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e89af3183b9baba5d0614dfe8b9338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec31ba1dd7e5dbd09d18f343d6b9965\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>US Stocks</td>\n <td>Phoenix</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>42%</td>\n <td>100%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt</td>\n <td>47%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Outperformed Market</td>\n <td>36%</td>\n <td>52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td>\n <td>11%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline</td>\n <td>40%</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Dividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</td>\n <td>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>1 (unsafe)</td>\n <td>0% to 20%</td>\n <td>over 4%</td>\n <td>16+%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2 (below- average)</td>\n <td>21% to 40%</td>\n <td>over 2%</td>\n <td>8% to 16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>3 (average)</td>\n <td>41% to 60%</td>\n <td>2%</td>\n <td>4% to 8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>4 (safe)</td>\n <td>61% to 80%</td>\n <td>1%</td>\n <td>2% to 4%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n <td>81% to 100%</td>\n <td>0.5%</td>\n <td>1% to 2%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>A+ top AA credit ratings</td>\n <td>0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nLong-Term Dependability\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Company</td>\n <td>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</td>\n <td>Interpretation</td>\n <td>Points</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n <td>60%</td>\n <td>Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% or below</td>\n <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n <td>1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>29% to 64%</td>\n <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n <td>2</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>65% to 79%</td>\n <td>Very Dependable</td>\n <td>3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n <td>80% or higher</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n <td>4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOverall Quality\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>AMZN</td>\n <td>Final Score</td>\n <td>Rating</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Safety</td>\n <td>88%</td>\n <td>5/5</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Business Model</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>3/3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dependability</td>\n <td>80%</td>\n <td>4/4</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n <td>12/12 Ultra SWAN</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n<ul>\n <li>All dividend champions</li>\n <li>All dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>All dividend kings</li>\n <li>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n <li>All 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4fcd0e53ed517cc20402f12043cb4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n<ul>\n <li>Merck (MRK)</li>\n <li>Cardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Costco (COST)</li>\n <li>General Mills (GIS)</li>\n <li>Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)</li>\n <li>Medtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Atmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li>\n <li>Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>Enbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat</li>\n <li>AbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)</li>\n</ul>\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3642bcde8d34e336b32513a8b667b10\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n <td>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>AA stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n <td>196.1</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Fitch</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.55%</td>\n <td>181.8</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Moody's</td>\n <td>A1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.67%</td>\n <td>149.3</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>AA- stable outlook</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n <td>173.4</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d391ae0a66f0a0a7097c951a829db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$81 billion in liquidity</li>\n <li>1.96% average borrowing cost</li>\n <li>\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%</li>\n <li>better terms than even the US treasury can get</li>\n</ul>\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Debt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)</td>\n <td>Net Debt/EBITDA</td>\n <td>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>0.56</td>\n <td>-0.09</td>\n <td>13.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>0.42</td>\n <td>-0.90</td>\n <td>21.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>0.33</td>\n <td>-1.21</td>\n <td>27.63</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>0.27</td>\n <td>-1.52</td>\n <td>37.61</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>0.21</td>\n <td>-1.97</td>\n <td>47.99</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>0.17</td>\n <td>-2.14</td>\n <td>58.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>0.14</td>\n <td>-2.24</td>\n <td>79.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026</li>\n</ul>\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Credit Rating</td>\n <td>Safe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies</td>\n <td>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>BBB</td>\n <td>3.0 or less</td>\n <td>7.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A-</td>\n <td>2.5 or less</td>\n <td>2.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A</td>\n <td>2.0 or less</td>\n <td>0.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>A+</td>\n <td>1.8 or less</td>\n <td>0.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AA</td>\n <td>1.5 or less</td>\n <td>0.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>AAA</td>\n <td>1.1 or less</td>\n <td>0.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA</li>\n <li>the company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America</li>\n</ul>\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n<blockquote>\n We assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Management’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d42b9bed2737674895bbf058e91e51\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a345405475408a1636a0de9514dd4c7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>SG&amp;A</td>\n <td>R&amp;D</td>\n <td>Capex</td>\n <td>Total Growth Spending</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>Growth Spending/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$28,677</td>\n <td>$37,677</td>\n <td>$35,046</td>\n <td>$72,723</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>18.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,316</td>\n <td>$54,529</td>\n <td>$38,722</td>\n <td>$93,251</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>19.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$41,429</td>\n <td>$60,706</td>\n <td>$39,328</td>\n <td>$100,034</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$48,702</td>\n <td>$66,794</td>\n <td>$39,666</td>\n <td>$106,460</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>15.76%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$50,575</td>\n <td>$75,326</td>\n <td>$45,823</td>\n <td>$121,149</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>15.70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$55,270</td>\n <td>$81,758</td>\n <td>$47,416</td>\n <td>$129,174</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>14.84%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$60,083</td>\n <td>$88,553</td>\n <td>$49,390</td>\n <td>$137,943</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>13.66%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.12%</td>\n <td>15.31%</td>\n <td>5.88%</td>\n <td>11.26%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>-5.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c36f1c1784191679b319b1e3fe6a2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&amp;D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&amp;D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Major Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Margin</td>\n <td>66.48</td>\n <td>355</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n <td>76.16</td>\n <td>252</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Equity</td>\n <td>90.94</td>\n <td>96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Assets</td>\n <td>85.77</td>\n <td>151</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Return On Capital</td>\n <td>75.61</td>\n <td>258</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>78.99</td>\n <td>222</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae20a3b7d6ae4faf5259f28d2c3b0ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings Watchlist</td>\n <td>Average ROC</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Champions</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats</td>\n <td>85%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Kings</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Strong ESG</td>\n <td>83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Ultra SWANs</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Low Volatility</td>\n <td>87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK 500 Master List</td>\n <td>106%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td>\n <td>125%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Hyper-Growth</td>\n <td>154%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF Margin</td>\n <td>EBITDA Margin</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating) Margin</td>\n <td>Net Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>8.0%</td>\n <td>14.8%</td>\n <td>5.9%</td>\n <td>5.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>7.7%</td>\n <td>15.4%</td>\n <td>7.0%</td>\n <td>5.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>10.2%</td>\n <td>16.2%</td>\n <td>8.1%</td>\n <td>6.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>11.7%</td>\n <td>17.1%</td>\n <td>9.6%</td>\n <td>7.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>14.2%</td>\n <td>19.1%</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n <td>9.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>16.1%</td>\n <td>20.7%</td>\n <td>12.1%</td>\n <td>10.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>17.0%</td>\n <td>22.2%</td>\n <td>14.7%</td>\n <td>12.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>13.26%</td>\n <td>6.92%</td>\n <td>16.27%</td>\n <td>14.20%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&amp;P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Sales</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Income</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus Operating Margin</td>\n <td>AWS Consensus EBITDA Margin</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$13,531</td>\n <td>$29,063</td>\n <td>29.82%</td>\n <td>64.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$17,450</td>\n <td>$35,900</td>\n <td>29.85%</td>\n <td>61.42%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$22,285</td>\n <td>$41,969</td>\n <td>30.53%</td>\n <td>57.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$28,743</td>\n <td>$49,991</td>\n <td>31.35%</td>\n <td>54.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>$39,370</td>\n <td>$58,906</td>\n <td>35.73%</td>\n <td>53.47%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>$50,362</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>38.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>$63,982</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>42.16%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>29.56%</td>\n <td>19.32%</td>\n <td>5.94%</td>\n <td>-4.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef66bfecf31ba5368e9e483ff2c0b9fc\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has&nbsp;more than 70 times&nbsp;already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>Advertising As % Of Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>4.07%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>5.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>5.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>7.36%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>21.79%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffdf852b07773d55e7615de35404d3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3866ce2e9c2c12dd34acca1982f6a04b\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n<blockquote>\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n</blockquote>\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS Revenue</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising Revenue</td>\n <td>Total Sales</td>\n <td>AWS + Advertising/Sales</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$61,100</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>15.83%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$84,312</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>17.24%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$106,797</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>18.40%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$141,405</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>20.93%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>32.27%</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>9.77%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Online Stores</td>\n <td>Physical Stores</td>\n <td>3rd Party Sellers</td>\n <td>Subscription Services</td>\n <td>AWS</td>\n <td>Advertising</td>\n <td>Other</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$197,349</td>\n <td>$16,224</td>\n <td>$80,437</td>\n <td>$25,207</td>\n <td>$45,370</td>\n <td>$15,730</td>\n <td>$21,477</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$247,062</td>\n <td>$16,271</td>\n <td>$105,072</td>\n <td>$32,067</td>\n <td>$58,450</td>\n <td>$25,862</td>\n <td>$32,329</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$291,435</td>\n <td>$16,818</td>\n <td>$128,177</td>\n <td>$38,992</td>\n <td>$72,988</td>\n <td>$33,809</td>\n <td>$42,937</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$307,114</td>\n <td>$17,128</td>\n <td>$155,835</td>\n <td>$44,961</td>\n <td>$91,683</td>\n <td>$49,722</td>\n <td>$52,000</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$318,497</td>\n <td>$16,750</td>\n <td>$169,642</td>\n <td>$52,868</td>\n <td>$110,174</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$63,637</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$473,794</td>\n <td>$19,738</td>\n <td>$189,999</td>\n <td>$58,948</td>\n <td>$131,980</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$67,563</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>$151,749</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annual Growth</td>\n <td>19.14%</td>\n <td>4.00%</td>\n <td>18.76%</td>\n <td>18.52%</td>\n <td>22.29%</td>\n <td>46.76%</td>\n <td>25.76%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n<blockquote>\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n</blockquote>\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>Net Income</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$386,064</td>\n <td>$31,018</td>\n <td>$57,284</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$21,331</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$489,008</td>\n <td>$37,694</td>\n <td>$75,241</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$28,601</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$580,286</td>\n <td>$59,368</td>\n <td>$94,093</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$38,122</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$675,490</td>\n <td>$79,188</td>\n <td>$115,214</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$52,538</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$771,718</td>\n <td>$109,720</td>\n <td>$147,249</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$70,026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$870,208</td>\n <td>$140,055</td>\n <td>$180,369</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$92,641</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$1,010,120</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$223,941</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$123,781</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>17.39%</td>\n <td>32.95%</td>\n <td>25.51%</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>34.05%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Operating Income</td>\n <td>Tax Costs</td>\n <td>Tax Rate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$22,899</td>\n <td>$2,863</td>\n <td>12.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$34,341</td>\n <td>$6,588</td>\n <td>19.18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$46,944</td>\n <td>$8,364</td>\n <td>17.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$64,923</td>\n <td>$11,723</td>\n <td>18.06%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$84,987</td>\n <td>$15,707</td>\n <td>18.48%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$105,028</td>\n <td>$19,933</td>\n <td>18.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$148,007</td>\n <td>$25,665</td>\n <td>17.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>36.48%</td>\n <td>44.13%</td>\n <td>5.60%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2021 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2022 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2023 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2024 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2025 Growth Consensus</td>\n <td>2026 Growth Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>27%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>33%</td>\n <td>30%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>31%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>-13%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>14%</td>\n <td>20%</td>\n <td>17%</td>\n <td>43%</td>\n <td>19%</td>\n <td>16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>57%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>54%</td>\n <td>26%</td>\n <td>21%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>91%</td>\n <td>23%</td>\n <td>22%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>44%</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n <td>32%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>2020 Growth Results</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Sales</td>\n <td>38%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Earnings</td>\n <td>82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n <td>145%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>70%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>18%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>28%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBIT (Operating Income)</td>\n <td>53%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a38f645a1608f99cc77e6ec072dc8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e01b03bef42c7ed38ac2250cff266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1150e4a88902c36c95997ca434ba5ba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa93ca51685a573b23f8374d41368a45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2179922a283d0c3fe0f5d4a90548a023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76904335d4c5233f9ea5d4b3f7a2a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion</li>\n <li>$501 billion net cash</li>\n <li>Apple began its capital returns at $250 billion</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e6f4534ab69d845938b2fc376c1db3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</td>\n <td>Yield On Today's Cost</td>\n <td>Consensus Yield Potential</td>\n <td>Analyst Consensus Fair Value Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2020</td>\n <td>$60.82</td>\n <td>$30.41</td>\n <td>0.87%</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>1.02%</td>\n <td>0.84%</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>0.88%</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>0.98%</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>2.94%</td>\n <td>1.08%</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>1.12%</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.15%</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Annualized Growth</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>31.46%</td>\n <td>6.52%</td>\n <td>26.33%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>Dividend Consensus</td>\n <td>FCF/Share Consensus</td>\n <td>Payout Ratio</td>\n <td>Retained FCF</td>\n <td>Buyback Potential</td>\n <td>Debt Repayment Potential</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$71.13</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$17,925</td>\n <td>1.01%</td>\n <td>56.1%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>$49.87</td>\n <td>$99.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$25,134</td>\n <td>1.42%</td>\n <td>79.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>$66.64</td>\n <td>$133.27</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$33,584</td>\n <td>1.90%</td>\n <td>107.3%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>$102.87</td>\n <td>$205.74</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$51,846</td>\n <td>2.93%</td>\n <td>167.8%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>$129.79</td>\n <td>$259.57</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$65,412</td>\n <td>3.70%</td>\n <td>214.6%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$156.95</td>\n <td>$313.89</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$79,100</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>259.5%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total 2021 Through 2026</td>\n <td>$541.67</td>\n <td>$1,083.34</td>\n <td>50.0%</td>\n <td>$193,901.40</td>\n <td>10.97%</td>\n <td>606.42%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9830e84590274c519912b4e405af7fb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>FCF</td>\n <td>Cash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$171,309</td>\n <td>$627,910</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2027</td>\n <td>$227,755</td>\n <td>$855,665</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2028</td>\n <td>$302,801</td>\n <td>$1,158,466</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2029</td>\n <td>$402,574</td>\n <td>$1,561,040</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2030</td>\n <td>$535,221</td>\n <td>$2,096,261</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Year</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)</td>\n <td>AMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n <td>$35.57</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2026</td>\n <td>$52.26</td>\n <td>$58.59</td>\n <td>$65.53</td>\n <td>$73.10</td>\n <td>$81.36</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2031</td>\n <td>$76.78</td>\n <td>$96.53</td>\n <td>$120.73</td>\n <td>$150.26</td>\n <td>$186.14</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2036</td>\n <td>$112.82</td>\n <td>$159.02</td>\n <td>$222.43</td>\n <td>$308.85</td>\n <td>$425.85</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2041</td>\n <td>$165.77</td>\n <td>$261.98</td>\n <td>$409.82</td>\n <td>$634.84</td>\n <td>$974.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2046</td>\n <td>$243.57</td>\n <td>$431.60</td>\n <td>$755.06</td>\n <td>$1,304.89</td>\n <td>$2,228.81</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2051</td>\n <td>$357.88</td>\n <td>$711.04</td>\n <td>$1,391.16</td>\n <td>$2,682.15</td>\n <td>$5,098.98</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2056</td>\n <td>$525.84</td>\n <td>$1,171.39</td>\n <td>$2,563.12</td>\n <td>$5,513.05</td>\n <td>$11,665.22</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2061</td>\n <td>$772.63</td>\n <td>$1,929.81</td>\n <td>$4,722.38</td>\n <td>$11,331.89</td>\n <td>$26,687.21</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2066</td>\n <td>$1,135.25</td>\n <td>$3,179.25</td>\n <td>$8,700.67</td>\n <td>$23,292.29</td>\n <td>$61,053.86</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>2071</td>\n <td>$1,668.06</td>\n <td>$5,237.65</td>\n <td>$16,030.42</td>\n <td>$47,876.46</td>\n <td>$139,676.45</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d25c26202284b932556a32c78e613d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n<ul>\n <li>billions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon</li>\n <li>91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40651c431f16a1b854c8e11ee99f6ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<ul>\n <li>23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price</li>\n <li>24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Metric</td>\n <td>Historical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)</td>\n <td>2021</td>\n <td>2022</td>\n <td>2023</td>\n <td>2024</td>\n <td>2025</td>\n <td>2026</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)</td>\n <td>26.10</td>\n <td>$4,210.22</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n <td>25.10</td>\n <td>$3,714.47</td>\n <td>$4,456.98</td>\n <td>$5,210.94</td>\n <td>$7,885.17</td>\n <td>$9,359.29</td>\n <td>$10,889.13</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n <td>58.32</td>\n <td>$3,748.49</td>\n <td>$5,880.49</td>\n <td>$7,213.57</td>\n <td>$11,998.76</td>\n <td>$15,138.12</td>\n <td>$18,306.06</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>EBITDA</td>\n <td>39.96</td>\n <td>$5,911.02</td>\n <td>$7,290.23</td>\n <td>$8,882.35</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n <td>NA</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Average</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n <td>$6,770.26</td>\n <td>$9,516.45</td>\n <td>$11,567.10</td>\n <td>$13,655.48</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Current Price</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n <td>48.25%</td>\n <td>63.18%</td>\n <td>69.71%</td>\n <td>74.34%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n <td>93.23%</td>\n <td>171.60%</td>\n <td>230.13%</td>\n <td>289.73%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<ul>\n <li>290% consensus return potential over the next five years</li>\n <li>$13,655 consensus price in 2026</li>\n <li>$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)</li>\n <li>6.6x sales</li>\n <li>26% CAGR consensus return potential</li>\n</ul>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar Fair Value</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,200.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To MS FV Estimate</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>16.58%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To MS FV</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>19.87%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>$4,249.17</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>17.54%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Price Target</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>21.27%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating</td>\n <td>Margin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies</td>\n <td>2020 Price</td>\n <td>2021 Price</td>\n <td>2022 Price</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n <td>0%</td>\n <td>$3,409.22</td>\n <td>$4,243.20</td>\n <td>$5,643.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Good Buy</td>\n <td>5%</td>\n <td>$3,238.76</td>\n <td>$4,031.04</td>\n <td>$5,361.27</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n <td>15%</td>\n <td>$2,897.84</td>\n <td>$3,606.72</td>\n <td>$4,796.92</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n <td>25%</td>\n <td>$2,429.07</td>\n <td>$3,182.40</td>\n <td>$4,232.58</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n <td>35%</td>\n <td>$2,216.00</td>\n <td>$2,758.08</td>\n <td>$3,668.23</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Currently</td>\n <td>$3,503.82</td>\n <td>-2.77%</td>\n <td>17.43%</td>\n <td>37.91%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td>\n <td>-2.70%</td>\n <td>21.10%</td>\n <td>61.07%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n<ul>\n <li>5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3caa57b1226a0fc30b132d34d01c01b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258cec5540c56ae6304277f278329aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n<ul>\n <li>double your money every 5 years</li>\n</ul>\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential</li>\n <li>21% to 50% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.9% S&amp;P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq</li>\n</ul>\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</td>\n <td>9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)</td>\n <td>24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)</td>\n <td>35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>$1,331.93</td>\n <td>$1,538.62</td>\n <td>$2,931.63</td>\n <td>$4,517.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>$1,774.02</td>\n <td>$2,367.36</td>\n <td>$8,594.43</td>\n <td>$20,406.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>$2,362.87</td>\n <td>$3,642.48</td>\n <td>$25,195.63</td>\n <td>$92,182.90</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>$3,147.16</td>\n <td>$5,604.41</td>\n <td>$73,864.15</td>\n <td>$416,422.16</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>$4,191.79</td>\n <td>$8,623.08</td>\n <td>$216,541.99</td>\n <td>$1,881,123.42</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>$5,583.14</td>\n <td>$13,267.68</td>\n <td>$634,819.93</td>\n <td>$8,497,687.35</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>$7,436.33</td>\n <td>$20,413.97</td>\n <td>$1,861,054.03</td>\n <td>$38,387,002.96</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>$9,904.63</td>\n <td>$31,409.42</td>\n <td>$5,455,912.62</td>\n <td>$173,407,415.00</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>$13,192.23</td>\n <td>$48,327.29</td>\n <td>$15,994,690.19</td>\n <td>$783,341,476.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>$17,571.06</td>\n <td>$74,357.52</td>\n <td>$46,890,434.61</td>\n <td>$3,538,625,316.57</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Time Frame (Years)</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Historical Return</td>\n <td>Ratio S&amp;P vs AMZN Consensus</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5</td>\n <td>1.16</td>\n <td>2.20</td>\n <td>3.39</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>10</td>\n <td>1.33</td>\n <td>4.84</td>\n <td>11.50</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>15</td>\n <td>1.54</td>\n <td>10.66</td>\n <td>39.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>20</td>\n <td>1.78</td>\n <td>23.47</td>\n <td>132.32</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>25</td>\n <td>2.06</td>\n <td>51.66</td>\n <td>448.76</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>30</td>\n <td>2.38</td>\n <td>113.70</td>\n <td>1522.03</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>35</td>\n <td>2.75</td>\n <td>250.27</td>\n <td>5162.09</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>40</td>\n <td>3.17</td>\n <td>550.84</td>\n <td>17507.71</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>45</td>\n <td>3.66</td>\n <td>1212.43</td>\n <td>59379.01</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>50</td>\n <td>4.23</td>\n <td>2668.62</td>\n <td>201389.38</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&amp;P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n<ul>\n <li>regulatory/political risk (domestic and international)</li>\n <li>disruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)</li>\n <li>complex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)</li>\n</ul>\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n<ul>\n <li>5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement</li>\n</ul>\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock</li>\n <li>MSCI</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS</li>\n <li>AM Best</li>\n <li>Bank of America</li>\n <li>Bloomberg</li>\n <li>FactSet Research</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n <li>State Street</li>\n <li>and many, many more</li>\n</ul>\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n<blockquote>\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba2655b83e526b8e213206a1ab9198b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a7f31cdc8acde82fce95672b754655\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8a315f9194c3b0d9bcec080ea0bfa\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96207809e8a57c16c394e25bcfeb69f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Rating Agency</td>\n <td>Industry Percentile</td>\n <td>Rating Agency Classification</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>MSCI</td>\n <td>62.0%</td>\n <td>BBB Average</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n <td>0.2%</td>\n <td>30.9/100 High Risk</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv</td>\n <td>98.9%</td>\n <td>Excellent</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P</td>\n <td>21.0%</td>\n <td>Very Poor</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consensus</td>\n <td>45.5%</td>\n <td>Average</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383c86f90f296e1f90c7ee721055c42a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3948c69cba266c64b5a3b009bf8bf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734b4bb5a582aa664d93b28ff40ac08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add8dd4cf4f17241a15cf13b0f82bfd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aee376fed18fa80819cb50999f4abc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d01e14a5abc80d7e4def3b61dcc45fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Morningstar)\n<ul>\n <li>0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)</li>\n <li>39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0db304e0b3a9935543e509ab1121a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\">(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n<ul>\n <li>an industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics</li>\n</ul>\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n<ul>\n <li>51 analysts</li>\n <li>3 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>7 total risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li>\n</ul>\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d6d875cd0b73cdf40d8cc66404c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac05bb3c7d43680ed5fed99d03a08a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\">(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Yield</td>\n <td>3.53%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Growth Forecast</td>\n <td>15.51%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Discount To Fair Value</td>\n <td>13%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Annual Valuation Boost</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>21.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return</td>\n <td>15.98%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>19.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>3.60%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&amp;P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td>\n <td>4.44</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>7.9%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>11.0%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&amp;P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>2.41</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential</td>\n <td>1.73</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n<ul>\n <li>8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%</li>\n</ul>\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n<ul>\n <li>4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time</li>\n <li>growth consensus of 21% CAGR</li>\n <li>33% discount to fair value</li>\n</ul>\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n<blockquote>\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Amazon Could Quadruple Within 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437187-3-reasons-amazon-could-quadruple-within-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102107523","content_text":"Summary\n\nImagine a company so wonderful, that a single share bought today, might be able to fund a rich retirement decades from now. Amazon is that company.\nAmazon's empire of businesses, including high margin AWS and advertising are expected to drive massive margin expansion leading to 33% annual free cash flow growth through 2026.\n$171 billion in annual free cash flow and $628 billion in cash on the balance sheet, means that Amazon will likely be forced by institutional investors to pay dividends.\nAmazon's 17% discount to fair value, and hyper-growth through 2026, means analysts think it could deliver 290% returns, nearly quadrupling your investment in five years.\nThose 26% CAGR consensus returns are what Amazon has delivered with incredible consistency for over 20 years. Combined with the potential to become the biggest dividend payer in history, Amazon is the ultimate rich retirement dream stock. That's why I've invested almost $250,000 into the best hyper-growth Ultra SWAN on earth, in all of my retirement portfolios. As long as Amazon remains undervalued, and the thesis intact, I'll keep buying my highest conviction recommendation of all time.\n\nAndrey Maximenko/iStock via Getty Images\nToday the market is highly overvalued, that's no secret.\n\nThat means that future returns are likely to be far lower than the 14% CAGR investors have enjoyed over the last decade.\nFor context, here's the return potential of the 32% overvalued S&P 500.\nS&P 500 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nS&P 500 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nEven the venerable dividend aristocrats, which historically outperform the S&P 500 by 2% annually, are only expected to deliver about 6% CAGR total returns over the next five years.\nBut fear not, because it's always a market of stocks and not a stock market.\nNo matter what kind of investor you are, yield, value, quality, low volatility, maximum returns, ESG, etc., something great is always on sale, if you know where to look.\nToday I wanted to highlight Amazon (AMZN), my highest conviction recommendation ever.\nNot only does Amazon represent a wonderful company at a wonderful price, but there are three reasons why the world's greatest hyper-growth Ultra SWAN could nearly quadruple in the next five years.\nThat's right, 26% CAGR consensus return potential, even with the market 32% overvalued.\nAmazon Total Returns Since 1998\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nThat's actually the returns Amazon investors have seen with clockwork-like regularity over the past 20 years.\nBut wait, it gets better. Not only does Amazon have the potential to deliver Buffett-line returns over the next five years, but it's also likely to become one of the greatest dividend growth blue-chips in the world. In fact, Amazon is eventually likely to become the biggest dividend payer in world history.\nSo here are the three reasons why I've invested almost $250,000 into Amazon across my retirement portfolios, on the way to eventually investing millions into what I call my \"Jeff Bezos retirement plan\".\nReason 1: Exceptional Quality And Safety\nMy motto is \"Safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nThe Dividend King's overall quality scores factor in 188 fundamental metrics covering.\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ngrowth consensus estimates\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by nine rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?\nDuring the 2 worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 6 blue-chip dividend cuts on the Phoenix list.\nThere were 5, meaning we did very well during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.\nAnd then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.\nIn the past decade, just 42% of all stocks made money, including dividends.\n\n100% Of Phoenix Recs, Past And Present, Have Made Money Over The Last Decade\n(Seeking Alpha)\n\nDK Phoenix: A Great Blue-Chip Stock Picking System\n\n\n\nMetric\nUS Stocks\nPhoenix\n\n\nPositive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years\n42%\n100%\n\n\nLost Money/Went Bankrupt\n47%\n0%\n\n\nOutperformed Market\n36%\n52%\n\n\nBankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years\n11%\n0%\n\n\nPermanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline\n40%\n0%\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan Asset Management, FactSet, Seeking Alpha)\nBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is one of the most comprehensive and accurate in the world.\nPicking stocks is hard unless you have a comprehensive and accurate way of measuring risk, valuation, and long-term return potential, which DK Phoenix most certainly does.\nThis is why I entrust 100% of my life savings to this model and the DK Phoenix strategy.\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (110 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (below- average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nAMZN\n88%\nA+ top AA credit ratings\n0.6% to 0.51% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n60%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n29% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n29% to 64%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n65% to 79%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n80% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nAMZN\n80%\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\nAMZN\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n88%\n5/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n80%\n4/4\n\n\nTotal\n83%\n12/12 Ultra SWAN\n\n\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nThe DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:\n\nAll dividend champions\nAll dividend aristocrats\nAll dividend kings\nAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\nAll 12/12 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)\n\nAMZN: 123rd Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 517) = 76th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated daily, sorted by overall quality\nAMZN's 83% quality score means its similar in quality to such 11/12 Super Swans and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as:\n\nMerck (MRK)\nCardinal Health (CAH) - dividend aristocrat\nCostco (COST)\nGeneral Mills (GIS)\nNestle (OTCPK:NSRGY)\nMedtronic (MDT) - dividend aristocrat\nAtmos Energy (ATO) - dividend aristocrat\nBlackRock (BLK)\nAlphabet (GOOG)\nEnbridge (ENB) - global aristocrat\nAbbVie (ABBV) - dividend aristocrat\nBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)\n\nToday AMZN is of higher quality than 76% of the world's most elite companies.\nWhat makes Amazon so high quality?\nLet's start with its fortress balance sheet.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's advanced accounting and solvency metrics all confirm almost zero short and long-term bankruptcy risk. They also confirm a significantly below 17.5% chance of accounting fraud.\nThese are numbers we can trust, and that's verified by not one, not two, but all three major credit rating agencies.\nAmazon Consensus Credit Rating\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nCredit Rating\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\nChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In\n\n\nS&P\nAA stable outlook\n0.51%\n196.1\n\n\nFitch\nAA- stable outlook\n0.55%\n181.8\n\n\nMoody's\nA1 (A+ equivalent) stable outlook\n0.67%\n149.3\n\n\nConsensus\nAA- stable outlook\n0.58%\n173.4\n\n\n\n(Sources: S&P, Fitch, Moody's)\nWarren Buffett defines fundamental risk as the probability of losing 100% of your investment, because of bankruptcy.\nJeff Bezos himself has said that his main goal is to push back Amazon's eventual bankruptcy for as long as possible.\nAccording to the rating agencies, he's done a masterful job of that, because the chance of Amazon going bankrupt over the next 30 years is 1 in 173.\nThe Bond Market Absolutely LOVES Amazon\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$81 billion in liquidity\n1.96% average borrowing cost\n\"smart money\" on Wall Street, bond investors, are willing to lend to Amazon for 40 years at under 3%\nbetter terms than even the US treasury can get\n\nBut wait, it gets better.\nAMZN Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nDebt/EBITDA (3.0 Or Less Safe According To Rating Agencies)\nNet Debt/EBITDA\nInterest Coverage (8+ Safe)\n\n\n2020\n0.56\n-0.09\n13.90\n\n\n2021\n0.42\n-0.90\n21.00\n\n\n2022\n0.33\n-1.21\n27.63\n\n\n2023\n0.27\n-1.52\n37.61\n\n\n2024\n0.21\n-1.97\n47.99\n\n\n2025\n0.17\n-2.14\n58.03\n\n\n2026\n0.14\n-2.24\n79.57\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n$501 billion consensus net cash by 2026\n\nLeverage Safety Credit Rating Guidelines For Most Companies\n\n\n\nCredit Rating\nSafe Debt/EBITDA For Most Companies\n30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk\n\n\nBBB\n3.0 or less\n7.50%\n\n\nA-\n2.5 or less\n2.50%\n\n\nA\n2.0 or less\n0.66%\n\n\nA+\n1.8 or less\n0.60%\n\n\nAA\n1.5 or less\n0.51%\n\n\nAAA\n1.1 or less\n0.07%\n\n\n\n\nS&P recently upgraded AMZN from AA- to AA\nthe company is on track to join JNJ and MSFT as the only AAA-rated companies in America\n\nWithin a few years, Amazon could have three AAA-stable credit ratings, tying Microsoft (MSFT) for the strongest balance sheet in corporate America (JNJ has an AAA-negative outlook from Moody's).\nBut quality only begins with a strong balance sheet and low fundamental risk.\n\nWe assign Amazon an Exemplary Capital Allocation rating.\n\n\n The rating reflects our assessments of a sound balance sheet, exceptional investments, and appropriate shareholder distributions...\n\n\nManagement’s track record of investing in areas that investors were initially skeptical of but were ultimately vindicated has been remarkable...The results have been breathtaking.\n\n\n From humble beginnings, Mr. Bezos has built Amazon into one of the largest companies in the world. On the e-commerce side, the company has evolved from selling books to selling everything, including groceries, delivering purchases the same day they are ordered, and moving into retail categories that were long thought to be beyond the reach of online shopping.\n\n\n The stickiness of Prime members, the financial stability of subscriptions, the tech world shakeup via AWS, the Kindle—the innovation has been dramatic, and shareholders have been rewarded along the way. Ultimately,\n we assess investment as exceptional.\n\n\n Amazon’s capital deployment strategy centers around re-investing in the business and making generally small tuck-in acquisitions.\n The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase shares, nor do we expect them to over the next several years.\"- Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nI define management quality by long-term capital allocation, as measured by profitability vs peers, as well as the dividend track record (for dividend stocks), and long-term total returns. And on that front, I agree with Morningstar 100% that Amazon has exceptional management quality.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nAmazon's profitability is historically in the top 20% of peers, confirming the wide and stable moat.\n\nAnd like Morningstar, I expect Amazon to keep plowing its rivers of profits back into more growth. When you're generating 19% cash returns on invested capital the best thing to do is slam the growth pedal to the floor.\nAnd that's exactly what analysts expect Amazon to do.\nAMZN Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$28,677\n$37,677\n$35,046\n$72,723\n$386,064\n18.84%\n\n\n2021\n$34,316\n$54,529\n$38,722\n$93,251\n$489,008\n19.07%\n\n\n2022\n$41,429\n$60,706\n$39,328\n$100,034\n$580,286\n17.24%\n\n\n2023\n$48,702\n$66,794\n$39,666\n$106,460\n$675,490\n15.76%\n\n\n2024\n$50,575\n$75,326\n$45,823\n$121,149\n$771,718\n15.70%\n\n\n2025\n$55,270\n$81,758\n$47,416\n$129,174\n$870,208\n14.84%\n\n\n2026\n$60,083\n$88,553\n$49,390\n$137,943\n$1,010,120\n13.66%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.12%\n15.31%\n5.88%\n11.26%\n17.39%\n-5.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAmazon's hiring binge, which has seen its workforce grow 37% CAGR since 1994, is expected to continue.\nWithin a few years, Amazon is likely to surpass Walmart as the largest private employer in America.\nEventually, it could surpass the Federal Government as the largest employer in America, and one day Amazon could even be the largest employer on earth.\nR&D spending is expected to reach almost $90 billion by 2026. Amazon is already the #1 company on earth when it comes to investing in innovation and new products. And that R&D spending is expected to double within 5 years.\nGrowth capex is expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2026, as Amazon continues maximizing its logistical capabilities. For context, today Amazon has 57 fulfillment centers... in Philadelphia alone!\nAmazon has 77 planes in its Amazon Air businesses and soon it will have85.\nIn 2021 Amazon is expected to open a $1.5 billion air hub in Kentucky. For most companies, a $1.5 billion investment would be a huge deal. For Amazon, it's about 5% of its consensus 2021 capex.\nIn 2019 Amazon had 60,000 trucks delivering its packages, and the company hasordered 100,000 electric trucks, which would nearly triple its delivery fleet, already one of the largest on earth.\nGlobally, Amazon is making inroads into dozens of countries, including India where Bezos says the goal is to create over 1 million direct and indirect jobs by 2025 alone.\nThere are few companies on earth as capital intensive as Amazon is today. And yet its returns on capital are still industry-leading and improving rapidly.\nAMZN TTM Profitability Vs Peers\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Cyclical Retailers More Profitable Than AMZN (Out of 1058)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n66.48\n355\n\n\nNet Margin\n76.16\n252\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n90.94\n96\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n85.77\n151\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n75.61\n258\n\n\nAverage\n78.99\n222\n\n\n\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\nROC = Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\nEarnings before interest and taxes/all the money it takes to run the business.\nhistorically ROC about 2X that of its peers.\n\n\n\nDividend Kings Watchlist\nAverage ROC\n\n\nS&P 500\n13%\n\n\nDividend Champions\n83%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats\n85%\n\n\nDividend Kings\n87%\n\n\nStrong ESG\n83%\n\n\nUltra SWANs\n87%\n\n\nLow Volatility\n87%\n\n\nDK 500 Master List\n106%\n\n\nForeign Dividend Stocks\n125%\n\n\nHyper-Growth\n154%\n\n\n\nYou'd think that all that growth spending would cause profit margins to shrink, but Amazon's economies of scale are so large, that profitability is expected to explode in the coming years.\nAMZN Profit Margin Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n8.0%\n14.8%\n5.9%\n5.5%\n\n\n2021\n7.7%\n15.4%\n7.0%\n5.8%\n\n\n2022\n10.2%\n16.2%\n8.1%\n6.6%\n\n\n2023\n11.7%\n17.1%\n9.6%\n7.8%\n\n\n2024\n14.2%\n19.1%\n11.0%\n9.1%\n\n\n2025\n16.1%\n20.7%\n12.1%\n10.6%\n\n\n2026\n17.0%\n22.2%\n14.7%\n12.3%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n13.26%\n6.92%\n16.27%\n14.20%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nFCF margins are expected to more than double. Operating margins are expected to nearly triple.\nAmazon's 2026 consensus ROC is 60% to 68%, which is 8x its industry peers and 5x that of the S&P 500.\nWhat on earth can have analysts so bullish about Amazon's profitability prospects?\nAmazon Web Services Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAWS Consensus Sales\nAWS Consensus Operating Income\nAWS Consensus EBITDA\nAWS Consensus Operating Margin\nAWS Consensus EBITDA Margin\n\n\n2020\n$45,370\n$13,531\n$29,063\n29.82%\n64.06%\n\n\n2021\n$58,450\n$17,450\n$35,900\n29.85%\n61.42%\n\n\n2022\n$72,988\n$22,285\n$41,969\n30.53%\n57.50%\n\n\n2023\n$91,683\n$28,743\n$49,991\n31.35%\n54.53%\n\n\n2024\n$110,174\n$39,370\n$58,906\n35.73%\n53.47%\n\n\n2025\n$131,980\n$50,362\nNA\n38.16%\nNA\n\n\n2026\n$151,749\n$63,982\nNA\n42.16%\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n22.29%\n29.56%\n19.32%\n5.94%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing provider on earth, and those sales are expected to grow at over 22% annually through 2026.\nIf AWS were its own business in 2021, it would be ranked #53 on the Fortune 500, larger than Boeing.\n\nBy 2026, AWS's $152 billion in sales, would make it #15 on the Fortune 500.\nOperating margins at AWS are expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. And that's despite Amazon steadily reducing cloud computing prices as it has more than 70 times already.\nBut there is an even better business Amazon runs, with 70% operating margins according to analyst firm Piper Jaffray.\nAmazon Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAdvertising As % Of Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$386,064\n4.07%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$489,008\n5.29%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$580,286\n5.83%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$675,490\n7.36%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n17.39%\n21.79%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nThe Wall Street Journal estimates Amazon generated $16 billion in ad revenue in 2020, #3 in the world behind Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB). That's 77% growth in advertising revenue in 2020, a terrible year for the advertising industry.\nThat ad business is expected to grow like a weed, more than tripling by 2023 alone.\nIn fact, by 2023, about 1/15th of Amazon's revenue is expected to be from digital ads.\n\nIn 2020 Amazon had 10.3% of the digital ad market, up from 7.8% the year before.\n\neMarketer estimates Amazon is already #2 in search ad spending revenue.\n\n This year, Amazon will control 76.2% of the nearly $24 billion e-commerce channel ad market. For comparison, No. 2 Walmart will capture just 6.5% of the market.\" - eMarketer\n\nAWS + Advertising Consensus Growth Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nAdvertising Revenue\nAWS Revenue\nAWS + Advertising Revenue\nTotal Sales\nAWS + Advertising/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$15,730\n$45,370\n$61,100\n$386,064\n15.83%\n\n\n2021\n$25,862\n$58,450\n$84,312\n$489,008\n17.24%\n\n\n2022\n$33,809\n$72,988\n$106,797\n$580,286\n18.40%\n\n\n2023\n$49,722\n$91,683\n$141,405\n$675,490\n20.93%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n46.76%\n22.29%\n32.27%\n17.39%\n9.77%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAdvertising and AWS are the most lucrative parts of its business and those are expected to grow at 32% annually through 2023, and makeup 1/5th of company sales.\nAnd those sales are themselves growing at incredible rates, thanks to Amazon's other businesses.\n\n\n\nYear\nOnline Stores\nPhysical Stores\n3rd Party Sellers\nSubscription Services\nAWS\nAdvertising\nOther\n\n\n2020\n$197,349\n$16,224\n$80,437\n$25,207\n$45,370\n$15,730\n$21,477\n\n\n2021\n$247,062\n$16,271\n$105,072\n$32,067\n$58,450\n$25,862\n$32,329\n\n\n2022\n$291,435\n$16,818\n$128,177\n$38,992\n$72,988\n$33,809\n$42,937\n\n\n2023\n$307,114\n$17,128\n$155,835\n$44,961\n$91,683\n$49,722\n$52,000\n\n\n2024\n$318,497\n$16,750\n$169,642\n$52,868\n$110,174\nNA\n$63,637\n\n\n2025\n$473,794\n$19,738\n$189,999\n$58,948\n$131,980\nNA\n$67,563\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n$151,749\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnual Growth\n19.14%\n4.00%\n18.76%\n18.52%\n22.29%\n46.76%\n25.76%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nWhat's included in Amazon's \"other\" businesses, which are expected to generate almost $68 billion in sales by 2025?\nAmazon is an empire with\n\n over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics), Shopbop, TeachStreet, Twitch, and Zappos. -Wikipedia\n\nThat motley collection of companies is growing at 25% and by 2026 would be #46 on the Fortune 500.\nThe bottom line is Amazon is a glorious empire that combines into one of the world's highest quality and fundamentally safest companies.\nIt's also one of the fastest-growing.\nReason 2: Long-Term Growth Potential To Make Grown Men Weep With Joy\nWhat does 17% organic revenue growth combined with extreme multiple expansion get you?\nAMZN Profit Growth Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$386,064\n$31,018\n$57,284\n$22,899\n$21,331\n\n\n2021\n$489,008\n$37,694\n$75,241\n$34,341\n$28,601\n\n\n2022\n$580,286\n$59,368\n$94,093\n$46,944\n$38,122\n\n\n2023\n$675,490\n$79,188\n$115,214\n$64,923\n$52,538\n\n\n2024\n$771,718\n$109,720\n$147,249\n$84,987\n$70,026\n\n\n2025\n$870,208\n$140,055\n$180,369\n$105,028\n$92,641\n\n\n2026\n$1,010,120\n$171,309\n$223,941\n$148,007\n$123,781\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n17.39%\n32.95%\n25.51%\n36.48%\n34.05%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHow about 33% CAGR FCF growth and 34% CAGR profit growth?\nWorried about higher corporate taxes in 2022? Jeff Bezos isn't and analysts are already baking that into their consensus estimates.\nAMZN Tax Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nOperating Income\nTax Costs\nTax Rate\n\n\n2020\n$22,899\n$2,863\n12.50%\n\n\n2021\n$34,341\n$6,588\n19.18%\n\n\n2022\n$46,944\n$8,364\n17.82%\n\n\n2023\n$64,923\n$11,723\n18.06%\n\n\n2024\n$84,987\n$15,707\n18.48%\n\n\n2025\n$105,028\n$19,933\n18.98%\n\n\n2026\n$148,007\n$25,665\n17.34%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n36.48%\n44.13%\n5.60%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon's extreme growth spending is expected to keep its tax rate far below the 25% or so that most analysts now expect beyond 2021.\nThat still means a $26 billion tax bill in 2026. Gone forever are the days of Amazon paying no taxes. But by 2026 Amazon is expected to become the largest single corporate taxpayer in the world, likely neutralizing claims that its \"not paying its fair share\".\nHow much should investors fear taxes? Not much, because look at the growth estimates for Amazon for the next few years.\nAmazon's Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\n2021 Growth Consensus\n2022 Growth Consensus\n2023 Growth Consensus\n2024 Growth Consensus\n2025 Growth Consensus\n2026 Growth Consensus\n\n\nSales\n27%\n19%\n16%\n14%\n13%\n16%\n\n\nEarnings\n33%\n30%\n31%\n35%\n31%\n32%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-13%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n14%\n20%\n17%\n43%\n19%\n16%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n26%\n57%\n23%\n54%\n26%\n21%\n\n\nEBITDA\n91%\n23%\n22%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n44%\n38%\n32%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nThose are mind-blowing growth rates for any company, much less the 2nd largest by revenue in the world.\nAnd those hyper-growth rates are coming off one of Amazon's best years ever.\nAmazon Was A Big Pandemic Winner\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Growth Results\n\n\nSales\n38%\n\n\nEarnings\n82%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n145%\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n70%\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n18%\n\n\nEBITDA\n28%\n\n\nEBIT (Operating Income)\n53%\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut what about beyond 2026?\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nGrowth consensus range: 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR\n\nThe historical margin of error, smoothing for outliers is 20% to the downside, 30% to the upside.\nThe historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range is 21% to 50% CAGR.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAmazon's growth consensus means analysts expect the growth rate of the last two decades to continue, courtesy of margin expansion.\nWhy Amazon Is Likely To Eventually Become The Biggest Dividend Payer In World History\nToday Amazon doesn't pay a dividend. Morningstar and analysts don't expect it to through at least 2026.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBut guess what? Simple math tells us that one day if Amazon grows as analysts expect, it will almost have no alternative than massive buybacks and dividends that put Apple's (AAPL) to shame.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n2026 consensus cash pile of $628 billion\n$501 billion net cash\nApple began its capital returns at $250 billion\n\n(Source: Apple)\nApple has so far returned $551 billion in cash to investors. By 2026 Amazon's cash pile is expected to be $77 billion larger than that mind-blowing sum.\nAMZN Potential Dividend Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\nAnalyst Consensus Fair Value Price\n\n\n2020\n$60.82\n$30.41\n0.87%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$71.13\n$35.57\n1.02%\n0.84%\n$4,243.20\n\n\n2022\n$99.74\n$49.87\n1.42%\n0.88%\n$5,643.44\n\n\n2023\n$133.27\n$66.64\n1.90%\n0.98%\n$6,770.26\n\n\n2024\n$205.74\n$102.87\n2.94%\n1.08%\n$9,516.45\n\n\n2025\n$259.57\n$129.79\n3.70%\n1.12%\n$11,567.10\n\n\n2026\n$313.89\n$156.95\n4.48%\n1.15%\n$13,655.48\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n31.46%\n31.46%\n31.46%\n6.52%\n26.33%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nAmazon yielding 1% would be similar to Apple, Microsoft, Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA) today.\nAnd guess what? If Amazon paid a 50% FCF dividend, then it would still see its cash position grow by almost $200 billion in the next five years.\nAMZN Potential Dividend/Retained Cash Flow Consensus\n\n\n\nYear\nDividend Consensus\nFCF/Share Consensus\nPayout Ratio\nRetained FCF\nBuyback Potential\nDebt Repayment Potential\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$71.13\n50.0%\n$17,925\n1.01%\n56.1%\n\n\n2022\n$49.87\n$99.74\n50.0%\n$25,134\n1.42%\n79.8%\n\n\n2023\n$66.64\n$133.27\n50.0%\n$33,584\n1.90%\n107.3%\n\n\n2024\n$102.87\n$205.74\n50.0%\n$51,846\n2.93%\n167.8%\n\n\n2025\n$129.79\n$259.57\n50.0%\n$65,412\n3.70%\n214.6%\n\n\n2026\n$156.95\n$313.89\n50.0%\n$79,100\n4.48%\n259.5%\n\n\nTotal 2021 Through 2026\n$541.67\n$1,083.34\n50.0%\n$193,901.40\n10.97%\n606.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nIf Amazon began paying out 100% of FCF as buybacks and dividends starting in 2022, then by 2026 its cash pile would be \"just\" $85.5 billion.\nHow does a 32% growing dividend with a 1% starting yield, and 2% annual buybacks sound?\nLike $79 billion in annual dividends to all investors, and $8.0 billion to Jeff Bezos personally, by 2026.\nBezos spends billions each year on Blue Origin (his rocket company) and philanthropy.\nIn fact, if Amazon were to pay a 1% dividend this year, that's $1.8 billion to Bezos (and $17.9 billion to the rest of us), pretty much ensuring he never has to sell a single share ever again.\nWould paying those dividends harm Amazon's growth efforts? Not at all. Free cash flow is what's left over after running the business and investing in future growth.\n$171 billion in FCF that analysts expect in 2026 is AFTER $138 billion in growth spending.\nWithin a few years, big institutions will likely insist that Amazon do something with its historic mountain of cash.\n(Source: GuruFocus Premium)\n63% of Amazon is owned by institutional investors, including 12% Vanguard and BlackRock alone. For context, Jeff Bezos owns 10.1% of the company.\nCollecting cash for its own sake is not prudent capital allocation, which is why these big institutions forced Apple to start buying back stock and paying dividends in 2012.\nAnd that's likely to happen eventually with Amazon.\nIf Amazon Keeps Growing FCF At 33% CAGR Through 2030\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF\nCash On The Balance Sheet ($ Millions)\n\n\n2026\n$171,309\n$627,910\n\n\n2027\n$227,755\n$855,665\n\n\n2028\n$302,801\n$1,158,466\n\n\n2029\n$402,574\n$1,561,040\n\n\n2030\n$535,221\n$2,096,261\n\n\n\nEven if Amazon's FCF growth rate slows significantly in 2027, by 2030 it will likely have $1+ trillion in cash, barring massive buybacks and dividends.\nWhat kind of income could Amazon eventually generate? Sufficient for a single share to potentially fund a rich retirement if your time horizon is long enough.\nAmazon Potential Inflation-Adjusted Future Dividends Per Share\n\n\n\nYear\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (10% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (12.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (15% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (17.5% CAGR Growth)\nAMZN Dividend Per Share (20% CAGR Growth)\n\n\n2021\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n$35.57\n\n\n2026\n$52.26\n$58.59\n$65.53\n$73.10\n$81.36\n\n\n2031\n$76.78\n$96.53\n$120.73\n$150.26\n$186.14\n\n\n2036\n$112.82\n$159.02\n$222.43\n$308.85\n$425.85\n\n\n2041\n$165.77\n$261.98\n$409.82\n$634.84\n$974.23\n\n\n2046\n$243.57\n$431.60\n$755.06\n$1,304.89\n$2,228.81\n\n\n2051\n$357.88\n$711.04\n$1,391.16\n$2,682.15\n$5,098.98\n\n\n2056\n$525.84\n$1,171.39\n$2,563.12\n$5,513.05\n$11,665.22\n\n\n2061\n$772.63\n$1,929.81\n$4,722.38\n$11,331.89\n$26,687.21\n\n\n2066\n$1,135.25\n$3,179.25\n$8,700.67\n$23,292.29\n$61,053.86\n\n\n2071\n$1,668.06\n$5,237.65\n$16,030.42\n$47,876.46\n$139,676.45\n\n\n\nA single share of Amazon could, with a long enough time frame, fund a comfortable retirement, with dividends alone.\nFor context, the average social security benefit in 2021 is $1,543 per month = $18,516.\nA modest position in Amazon of 14 shares today, under my base case (15% future dividend growth) scenario will equal social security payments within 30 years, adjusted for inflation.\nI own over 73 shares of Amazon and counting which means $1.2 million in potential inflation-adjusted annual dividends in 50 years. This is my Jeff Bezos retirement plan.\nReason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price And The Potential For 290% Returns In The Next 5 Years\nWith Amazon near its all-time highs, many investors think it must be overvalued. However, its actually 17% undervalued.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\nbillions of investors over 20 years have concluded 24 to 26x cash flow is fair value for Amazon\n91% statistical probability this is a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n23.9x forward cash flow = 0.64 PEG = hyper-growth at a very attractive price\n24.2 EV/EBITDA vs 34.8 13-year median = AMZN potentially 30% undervalued\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiple (13-years)\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett Smoothed Out FCF)\n26.10\n$4,210.22\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n25.10\n$3,714.47\n$4,456.98\n$5,210.94\n$7,885.17\n$9,359.29\n$10,889.13\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n58.32\n$3,748.49\n$5,880.49\n$7,213.57\n$11,998.76\n$15,138.12\n$18,306.06\n\n\nEBITDA\n39.96\n$5,911.02\n$7,290.23\n$8,882.35\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAverage\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n$6,770.26\n$9,516.45\n$11,567.10\n$13,655.48\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$3,503.82\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n17.43%\n37.91%\n48.25%\n63.18%\n69.71%\n74.34%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n21.10%\n61.07%\n93.23%\n171.60%\n230.13%\n289.73%\n\n\n\n\n290% consensus return potential over the next five years\n$13,655 consensus price in 2026\n$6.6 trillion market cap (assuming no buybacks)\n6.6x sales\n26% CAGR consensus return potential\n\n\n\n\nMorningstar Fair Value\n\n\n$4,200.00\n\n\nDiscount To MS FV Estimate\n\n\n16.58%\n\n\nUpside To MS FV\n\n\n19.87%\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalyst Median 12-Month Price Target\n\n\n$4,249.17\n\n\nDiscount To Price Target\n\n\n17.54%\n\n\nUpside To Price Target\n\n\n21.27%\n\n\n\nBasically, all the experts agree, AMZN is modestly undervalued, with significantly short-term upside potential, 100% justified by some of the best fundamentals on Wall Street.\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For 12/12 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$3,409.22\n$4,243.20\n$5,643.44\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n5%\n$3,238.76\n$4,031.04\n$5,361.27\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n15%\n$2,897.84\n$3,606.72\n$4,796.92\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n25%\n$2,429.07\n$3,182.40\n$4,232.58\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n35%\n$2,216.00\n$2,758.08\n$3,668.23\n\n\nCurrently\n$3,503.82\n-2.77%\n17.43%\n37.91%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n-2.70%\n21.10%\n61.07%\n\n\n\nAMZN is a potentially strong buy for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.\nAnd here's what investors buying AMZN today can reasonably expect as far as total returns are concerned.\n\n5-year consensus return potential range: 18% to 35% CAGR\n\nAMZN 2023 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nAMZN 2026 Consensus Total Return Potential (Using The Most Conservative Metric)\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\nFor context, Cathie Wood at ARKK and private equity strive for 15% CAGR total returns over time.\n\ndouble your money every 5 years\n\nARK Innovation ETF Valuation: 106x Earnings And Rising By The Day\n(Source: Morningstar)\n106x forward earnings for companies growing at 17.7% CAGR = 6.0 PEG.\nOCF PEG of 2.4 at ARKK.\nAMZN OCF PEG of 0.64.\nARKK is paying 4x as much for growth as Amazon investors buying today.\nThere is a 91% statistical probability that ARKK investors see terrible returns in the coming 10 to 20 years.\nOver the long-term analysts expect:\n\n0% yield + 37.2% growth = 37.2% CAGR total return potential\n21% to 50% CAGR range\nvs 7.9% S&P 500 and 11.0% aristocrats and 16.5% Nasdaq\n\nAMZN has consistently delivered 26% to 27 CAGR long-term returns.\nThe low end of the 26.7% to 38.1% CAGR growth consensus range.\nAMZN Vs S&P 500 Vs Aristocrats Inflation-Adjusted Long-Term Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.9% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n9.0% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (Aristocrat consensus)\n24% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN historical return)\n35.2% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (AMZN Consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,331.93\n$1,538.62\n$2,931.63\n$4,517.35\n\n\n10\n$1,774.02\n$2,367.36\n$8,594.43\n$20,406.42\n\n\n15\n$2,362.87\n$3,642.48\n$25,195.63\n$92,182.90\n\n\n20\n$3,147.16\n$5,604.41\n$73,864.15\n$416,422.16\n\n\n25\n$4,191.79\n$8,623.08\n$216,541.99\n$1,881,123.42\n\n\n30\n$5,583.14\n$13,267.68\n$634,819.93\n$8,497,687.35\n\n\n35\n$7,436.33\n$20,413.97\n$1,861,054.03\n$38,387,002.96\n\n\n40\n$9,904.63\n$31,409.42\n$5,455,912.62\n$173,407,415.00\n\n\n45\n$13,192.23\n$48,327.29\n$15,994,690.19\n$783,341,476.50\n\n\n50\n$17,571.06\n$74,357.52\n$46,890,434.61\n$3,538,625,316.57\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Historical Return\nRatio S&P vs AMZN Consensus\n\n\n5\n1.16\n2.20\n3.39\n\n\n10\n1.33\n4.84\n11.50\n\n\n15\n1.54\n10.66\n39.01\n\n\n20\n1.78\n23.47\n132.32\n\n\n25\n2.06\n51.66\n448.76\n\n\n30\n2.38\n113.70\n1522.03\n\n\n35\n2.75\n250.27\n5162.09\n\n\n40\n3.17\n550.84\n17507.71\n\n\n45\n3.66\n1212.43\n59379.01\n\n\n50\n4.23\n2668.62\n201389.38\n\n\n\nOver the next 10 to 15 years, Amazon, if it grows as expected, it could deliver 10 to 12x the returns of the S&P 500 and turn $1 into about $20 to $25, in inflation-adjusted terms.\nRisk Profile: Why Amazon Isn't Right For Everyone\nNo company is right for everyone, and all have complex risk profiles that investors must understand and be comfortable with.\nFundamental Risk Profile\nWe believe that the uncertainty for Amazon is high and that despite being an e-commerce leader, the company faces a variety of risks.\nAmazon must protect its leading online retailing position, which can be challenging as consumer preferences change, especially post-COVID-19 (as consumers may revert back to prior behaviors), and traditional retailers bolster their online presence.\nMaintaining an e-commerce edge has pushed the company to make investments in non-traditional areas, such as producing content for its Prime Video subscriptions and building out its own transportation network.\nSimilarly, the company must also maintain an attractive value proposition for its third-party sellers. Some of these investment areas have raised investor questions in the past, and we expect management to continue to invest according to its strategy, despite periodic margin pressure from increased spending.\nThe company must also continue to invest in new offerings. AWS, transportation, and physical stores (both Amazon branded and Whole Foods) are three notable areas of investment. These decisions require capital allocation and management focus and may play out over a period of years rather than quarters.\nContinued international expansion will likely require similar investment and management attention but will also increase exposure to different regulatory environments.\nSome countries have instituted or may institute protectionist policies. Even domestically over the last several years, lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on the amount of market power large technology companies have accrued.\nAntitrust, data privacy, and section 230 have been repeatedly invoked.\nFrom an ESG perspective, data breaches and service outages are a concern for any type of cloud service provider. As a retailer, Amazon has personal information for hundreds of millions of consumers around the world, while AWS hosts proprietary mission critical data for enterprises.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nregulatory/political risk (domestic and international)\ndisruption risk from major tech competitors (like GOOG, FB, and MSFT)\ncomplex ESG risk (such as 150% annual turnover at fulfillment centers)\n\nMaterial Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk\n\n5 High-Yield ESG Blue-Chips For A Safe And Prosperous Retirement\n\nHere is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.\nThe bottom line is that ESG is NOT about politics or personal ethical opinions.\nAmong institutions that factor ESG into their safety models and ratings are:\n\nBlackRock\nMSCI\nMorningstar\nReuters\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS\nAM Best\nBank of America\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nWells Fargo\nNAREIT\nState Street\nand many, many more\n\nQuality companies have always practiced ESG risk management long before it was popular among investors.\n\n If you use\n ESG scores that inherently tilts a portfolio to quality.\" - NYU study\n The overlap between ESG, especially measures related to the ‘G’ [or governance], and quality is pretty large.” - Research AffiliatesCompanies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see\n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/Eand P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nDividend Aristocrats Are Strong ESG Companies\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\nAnalyst firm McKinsey has done several studies on this topic and concluded that between 25% and 60% of cash flows are affected by ESG risk.\nIt also did a meta-analysis of over 2,000 studies and found the ESG risk mitigation was 8X as likely to boost a company’s bottom line as hurt it.\nAMZN's ESG Risk Management Consensus\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n62.0%\nBBB Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n0.2%\n30.9/100 High Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv\n98.9%\nExcellent\n\n\nS&P\n21.0%\nVery Poor\n\n\nConsensus\n45.5%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\n\n0.2th percentile for its industry (472nd best out of 473 retailers)\n39th percentile among all rated companies (14,143)\n\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\n\nan industry leader in all long-term risk management metrics\n\nHow We Monitor AMZN's Risk Profile\n\n51 analysts\n3 credit rating agencies\n7 total risk rating agencies\n58 total experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management\n\nRest assured that if Amazon's thesis weakens, strengthens, or shatters, we'll know about it and so DK members and my SA readers.\nBottom Line: Amazon Is The Ultimate Rich Retirement Dream Stock\nMy Real Money Phoenix Retirement Portfolio (Tracked Daily In Our Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tool)\n\n(Source: Morningstar)\nDo you know what ETF or mutual fund offers a 3.5% very safe yield, with 15.5% growth and that's also 13% undervalued? All from a collection of blue-chips that matches the dividend aristocrats for quality and safety?\nNone, because only through prudent stock picking and active management can you achieve fundamentals like this.\n\n\n\n\nDS Phoenix Portfolio Fundamentals\n\n\nYield\n3.53%\n\n\nLT Growth Forecast\n15.51%\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n13%\n\n\n5-Year Annual Valuation Boost\n2.82%\n\n\n5-Year Consensus Total Return Potential\n21.86%\n\n\n5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Total Return\n15.98%\n\n\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential\n19.04%\n\n\nS&P 500 5-Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n3.60%\n\n\nDK Video Phoenix Risk-Adjusted Return/S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Expected Return\n4.44\n\n\nS&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n7.9%\n\n\nDividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n11.0%\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/S&P 500 Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n2.41\n\n\nDS Phoenix LT Consensus Total Return Potential/Dividend Aristocrats Consensus LT Total Return Potential\n1.73\n\n\n\nAmazon is the heart of my 28% growth allocation, and by combining it with high-yield blue-chips, you can have your cake and eat it too.\n\n8 Safe Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 6%\n\nIf you buy Amazon in equal amounts with something likeBritish American Tobacco(BTI), here is the synthetic company you create.\n\n4% safe yield growing about 4.3% over time\ngrowth consensus of 21% CAGR\n33% discount to fair value\n\nDoes that sound like a good way to combine growth, value, and yield? I think so, and that's why I've invested nearly $350,000 into that specific combination so far.\nAmazon is very likely to eventually have to pay a dividend. That's not speculation, its simple math. Big institutional investors simply won't stand for a company amassing a $1+ trillion cash pile.\nThat day may be far into the future, possibly 2030 or so.\nBut whenever Amazon finally starts paying dividends and buying back stock by the boatload, doesn't matter.\nLong-term investors buying Amazon today for pure growth, quality, and attractive valuation, are likely to be rolling in safe, and exponentially growing income in the years and decades to come.\nWhile there are many great hyper-growth stocks to choose from, none offer Amazon's incredible combination of quality, safety, growth, valuation, and future dividend potential that can allow a single share to possibly fund a rich retirement.\nThat's why I keep buying Amazon steadily, as long as its undervalued and its thesis remains intact.\nIf a small position in Amazon today can lead to a rich retirement in a few decades, then imagine how golden our golden years will be, if we own a large position, constructed over many years, and through several market downturns.\nBecause to quote Frasier Crane\n\n If less is more, then imagine how much more, more is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5080890,"gmtCreate":1625059148200,"gmtModify":1663230335951,"authorId":3577781617271173,"author":{"id":3577781617271173,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorId":3577781617271173,"name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":151067835,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Y","text":"Y","html":"Y"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":75,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}