逼空大军转战白银！背后操盘者真的是散户吗？

华尔街见闻2021-02-01

二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕，美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。故事的开端如出一辙。上周，同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上，一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”，并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位，引来应者云集。一时间现货、期货银价双双...

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leolu1984188
·2021-02-02
假新聞
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-02-02
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-02-02
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余安徐正静
·2021-02-02
這個問題早都存在，只要一個品種要求實物交割，就會有大量的銀行破產，因爲50年來，銀行家拼命的鼓吹金銀無用論，他們只有1噸黃金卻賣出幾百噸紙黃金，如果要求實物交割，所有發行紙黃金的銀行，只有破產一條路。
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A泥称
·2021-02-01
Reddit就在那，這種話胡說真的好嗎
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-02-01
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alexyong
·2021-02-01
假的，去Reddit看都沒幾個帖子號召買白銀
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8
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Xuanziepie
·2021-02-01
Nice. Silver going up
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1
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-02-01
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kenneeth
·2021-02-01
Citadel are major holders of silver.Don’t be stupid. Stop buying silver.
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杨铭琪
·2021-02-01
fake news
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2
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牛与熊
·2021-02-01
Interesting
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1
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恒跌
·2021-02-01
來呀大A股需要你
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得到的还会哄
·2021-02-01
空軍分散amc和gme戰鬥力
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TedZhang
·2021-02-01
感覺到了空軍的陰謀，做空實力也開始釣魚了。
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1
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牛星雨
·2021-02-01
操控市場沒有監管碼
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hjfd
·2021-02-01
機構在裏面渾水摸魚，散佈假消息
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3
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阿尔伯特888
·2021-02-01
空軍的陰謀
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2
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冰奈儿l
·2021-02-01
又是毫不知恥的沒有依據的消息。
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2
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大爷的您滴
·2021-02-01
機構僞裝成散戶先用大資金拉昇股價，散戶看漲追入，股價越來越高，最後機構盈利出貨，散戶接盤，不就這麼回事嗎，A股的天山生物也是
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  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2021-02-01
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god555
·2021-02-01
就是人爲造通脹要加息搞崩股市比特幣起飛
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1
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磐石533
·2021-02-01
買買買???????????
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即使散户投资者不在乎收益，想想类似摩根大通（此前因白银价格操作支付巨额罚单）这样的大行可能因为逼空而破产，这就足以激动人心。随后，用户名为“TheHappyHawaiian”的投资者也表达了类似观点，认为可以通过抬高银价迫使更多白银期货合约进行实物交割，从而挤压空头。“TheHappyHawaiian”表示，市场上通过裸卖空操纵白银价格主要是以摩根大通为代表的几家华尔街大行。目前白银期货市场上账面交易的白银与实物白银的平均比率为250:1，这意味着多数交易是通过现金结算而不是实物交割完成交易。只要散户投资者能迫使更多的期货合约进行实物交割，就能挤压白银空头。近期狂热市场氛围的推动下，帖子一出效果立竿见影。一众投资者几乎是熟能生巧一般地，今天将现货白银价格猛推至日内暴涨逾10%，一度站上30美元/盎司，并创下去年8月11日以来新高；期货开盘也上涨7％，飙升至29.095美元高点。与此同时，金银比也来到2014年来最低水平。现货白银日内短暂突破30美元/盎司现货白银创下去年8月来新高Comex白银期货猛飙金银比为2014来最低而事实上早在上周五，白银价格就已经出现大幅波动，白银期货盘中涨幅一度突破6%，而黄金期货同期涨幅仅约0.5%。强劲的涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家。中国国内商品期市上，沪银主力合约涨幅一度扩大至8%，刷新去年9月以来高位。澳大利亚银矿股周一早间股价也大幅飙升， Argent Minerals上涨近60%，Investigator Resources涨近50%，Boab Metal涨20%。全球最大白银ETF也迎来资金大幅流入。市场数据显示，白银ETF（SLV）上周五单日流入资金高达10亿美元，这几乎是这个已有15年历史ETF此前最高流入记录的2倍。银市疯狂之下，零售网站上的银条、银币也随之供不应求。据彭博报道，包括Money Metals、SD Bullion、JM Bullion和Apmex在内的诸多零售商均表示，鉴于白银当前的疯狂需求，它们在亚洲市场开盘前无法处理订单，已暂停销售白银产品。SD Bullion首席执行官在其文章中表示，周五收盘前的24小时内，SD Bullion卖出白银数量，几乎是平时周日开盘前整个周末卖出数量的近10倍。报道援引特拉华州Argent Asset Group首席执行官Robert Higgins称，他整天都在处理交易电话，人们都在拼命购买黄金和白银，当前现货市场“非常、非常吃紧”。但是，真的是散户？幕后主谋真的只是散户吗？事实上，每一场逼空大戏背后，似乎都离不开机构的推波助澜。不少分析师认为，从论坛上的帖子来看，逼空的手法和策略的专业度并不似散户所为。纽约天骄基金公司总裁郭亚夫告诉对上海证券报表示：我认真研读了他们号召做多白银的帖子，从内容上看，绝对不是普通散户可以写出来的内容，帖子里甚至提到了摩根大通的空头仓位。 如果说没有机构影子的话，至少也有在金融机构工作的人以个人名义参与了。FXTM富拓特约分析师黄俊也称：“有很多机构一直在里面，比如一些基金和白银矿商。”也许能印证这一观点的是，上述提及“TheHappyHawaiian”用户的发帖全文中，甚至给出了颇具专业性的“操作模板”。具体操作上，他写道：我将把50%的资金直接投资于SLV ETF，另外50%投资于4月16日到期的SLV看涨期权，行权价35美元。SLV的持仓量增加将引发白银价格上涨，当SLV接近35美元时，就会产生空头挤压。如果出现轧空，4月底SLV的目标价将达到75美元。更为审慎的做法是购买SLV期权和PSLV股票。不仅如此，新浪财经指出，该文还解释了为何在PSLV和SLV两大白银ETF中，SLV是更好的标的，因为SLV自身没有什么空头，但SLV内部有很多套利盘，这些套利盘与白银的现货、期货市场相联，打掉SLV就可以让Comex交易所里面大量聚集的白银空头集体崩溃。该文表示，现在摩根大通手上已经没什么空头了，所以现在拉白银不会遇到太大阻力。此外，SLV还有其他优势，包括：有更多经纪商提供这一标的的交易、流动性更好、有相关期权交易。白银后市如何？那么，最牵动市场神经的问题是：白银这一波到底还能涨多久？市场上分析师的普遍观点似乎是，短期小幅看多，但放长远看，这轮涨势就可能只是暂时的了。就在撰写文章当口，现货白银价格已于周一4：10左右短暂来到30美元/盎司以上。值得注意的是，这一点位已突破高盛此前所估30美元的12个月目标价。澳洲交易商Guardian Vaults分析师John Feeney表示，Reddit论坛上的联合行动确实可以大幅影响个别股票的价格，但如果把白银和个人公司的市值相比较，不认为他们有能力显著推动白银进入逼空状态。白银的市值非常大，而论坛上的人想要的是快速上涨，因此个人不会看涨太多。有分析师指出，最重要的一点是，贵金属市场与股票市场存在根本差异，尝试挤爆白银空头很可能波及外汇市场，一旦如此，各国央行绝对会出手干预。嘉盛集团Joe Perry表示：贵金属通常扮演对冲通胀的角色，在美元时常走弱的背景下，贵金属走高。白银ETF和现货白银/美元都不是股票，如果人们尝试挤爆白银空头，可能影响美元与全球交易量最大的市场，即外汇市场，这是贵金属与股票之间的主要差别。作为贵金属的白银如果遭到针对性的空头回补，可能影响美元的走势。但如果确有其事，不要以为各国央行会袖手旁观。美元下跌的原因可能很多，但针对贵金属的“游戏”不会是其中之一。但也有机构持不同观点。作为一种避险资产，也是一种用于生产太阳能电池板等产品的工业金属，不少机构近期原本就强烈看好白银。Metals Focus分析师Philip Newman就曾表示，2021年或将看到黄金和钯金的价格再创新高，但白银的升幅将是最大的。从技术面看，市场分析师Jesse Colombo周日在福布斯网站发文称，如果白银能够在强劲的交易量下向上突破30美元，则后续看涨的可能性将大幅增加，下一个目标价位将是35美元/盎司。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":315802050,"gmtCreate":1612227728070,"gmtModify":1704868450605,"author":{"id":"3568815151913421","authorId":"3568815151913421","name":"leolu1984188","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568815151913421","authorIdStr":"3568815151913421"},"htmlText":"假新聞","listText":"假新聞","text":"假新聞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315802050","repostId":1103378464,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3462570,"gmtCreate":1612232316070,"gmtModify":1680775273323,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":315802050,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"},{"id":3462535,"gmtCreate":1612232201316,"gmtModify":1680775271596,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":315802050,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":315367237,"gmtCreate":1612201231629,"gmtModify":1704868268831,"author":{"id":"3549529311821804","authorId":"3549529311821804","name":"余安徐正静","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4d9bfcd8bc4b658ece842ba532e0ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549529311821804","authorIdStr":"3549529311821804"},"htmlText":"這個問題早都存在，只要一個品種要求實物交割，就會有大量的銀行破產，因爲50年來，銀行家拼命的鼓吹金銀無用論，他們只有1噸黃金卻賣出幾百噸紙黃金，如果要求實物交割，所有發行紙黃金的銀行 ，只有破產一條路。","listText":"這個問題早都存在，只要一個品種要求實物交割，就會有大量的銀行破產，因爲50年來，銀行家拼命的鼓吹金銀無用論，他們只有1噸黃金卻賣出幾百噸紙黃金，如果要求實物交割，所有發行紙黃金的銀行 ，只有破產一條路。","text":"這個問題早都存在，只要一個品種要求實物交割，就會有大量的銀行破產，因爲50年來，銀行家拼命的鼓吹金銀無用論，他們只有1噸黃金卻賣出幾百噸紙黃金，如果要求實物交割，所有發行紙黃金的銀行 ，只有破產一條路。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315367237","repostId":1103378464,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":315034121,"gmtCreate":1612189687363,"gmtModify":1704867981156,"author":{"id":"3554791374934729","authorId":"3554791374934729","name":"A泥称","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554791374934729","authorIdStr":"3554791374934729"},"htmlText":"Reddit就在那，這種話胡說真的好嗎","listText":"Reddit就在那，這種話胡說真的好嗎","text":"Reddit就在那，這種話胡說真的好嗎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315034121","repostId":1103378464,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3456955,"gmtCreate":1612189900248,"gmtModify":1680775181469,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":315034121,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":315035609,"gmtCreate":1612189593401,"gmtModify":1704867978726,"author":{"id":"3558925043831153","authorId":"3558925043831153","name":"alexyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38edb2c0b14c9b85bf113310f197449c","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558925043831153","authorIdStr":"3558925043831153"},"htmlText":"假的，去Reddit看都沒幾個帖子號召買白銀","listText":"假的，去Reddit看都沒幾個帖子號召買白銀","text":"假的，去Reddit看都沒幾個帖子號召買白銀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315035609","repostId":1103378464,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":315038188,"gmtCreate":1612189427744,"gmtModify":1704867974007,"author":{"id":"3563944060928407","authorId":"3563944060928407","name":"Xuanziepie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90f2689dccce2ab8f9fe476e1ccdf32","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563944060928407","authorIdStr":"3563944060928407"},"htmlText":"Nice. Silver going up","listText":"Nice. Silver going up","text":"Nice. Silver going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315038188","repostId":1103378464,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3456977,"gmtCreate":1612190018515,"gmtModify":1680775184054,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":315038188,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":315038083,"gmtCreate":1612189424542,"gmtModify":1704867973845,"author":{"id":"3559703102628596","authorId":"3559703102628596","name":"kenneeth","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559703102628596","authorIdStr":"3559703102628596"},"htmlText":"Citadel are major holders of silver.Don’t be stupid. 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