Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why

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Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why

The Street2021-03-19

Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G...

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Drannek
·2021-03-22
Nice article
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Chimmy
·2021-03-22
Apple is the kind of company that will still be existing after we die.
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Yc3
·2021-03-22
Comment this post please
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- Yc3:
  Thanks
  2021-03-22
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Couragesther
·2021-03-22
Hmm.... Microsoft might be a better play
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Shifeng
·2021-03-22
Why we should trust analyst? Be your own analyst!
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MK虎
·2021-03-22
?
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- MK虎:
  good sharing
  2021-03-22
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Nisnivlek
·2021-03-22
Its will be back soon
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5
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- Audrey Chew:
  how come
  2021-03-22
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Exodus75
·2021-03-22
Thanks for the article.
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Annalz
·2021-03-22
Cannot agree with the point. Apple ? is a great company
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Snow19
·2021-03-22
Like and comment
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Annalz
·2021-03-22
Not necessarily to be agreed
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Ys0603
·2021-03-22
wow
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- Ys0603:
  Ok
  2021-03-22
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Jack in the Stock
·2021-03-22
Not big fan, but I think APPLE is quite strong. Don’t be fooled by temporary set back.
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PooYen
·2021-03-22
Please like and comment.
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atf_nato
·2021-03-22
Sad
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- atf_nato:
  Apple
  2021-03-22
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35a510b1
·2021-03-22
It will go back up
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- Fartyclown:
  .
  2021-03-22
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Glenna
·2021-03-22
good article
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青龙31
·2021-03-22
Buy
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SSVC
·2021-03-22
Like and comment please Thanks.
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- SSVC:
  [强][握手]
  2021-03-22
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- Gigachad:
  ?
  2021-03-22
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- Couragesther:
  Sure
  2021-03-22
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Haohao2324
·2021-03-22
Like and ocmment
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- Gigachad:
  ?
  2021-03-22
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Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares?At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the s","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"thestreet.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"一位分析师表示，苹果的股票正在下跌。原因如下","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.\nNow, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.\nApple might be too hyped\nGoldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.\nFor starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.\nStill on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.\nAlso, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:\n\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n\nLastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.\nI think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.\nI also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.\nStill, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.\nTwitter speaks\nThe most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":359874843,"gmtCreate":1616387760182,"gmtModify":1704793358556,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359874843","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359870352,"gmtCreate":1616387169276,"gmtModify":1704793346827,"author":{"id":"3565004892423880","authorId":"3565004892423880","name":"Chimmy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb71d738ca2f4da611b425823ebf3c60","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Apple is the kind of company that will still be existing after we die.","listText":"Apple is the kind of company that will still be existing after we die.","text":"Apple is the kind of company that will still be existing after we die.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359870352","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359115714,"gmtCreate":1616373565238,"gmtModify":1704793144645,"author":{"id":"3567136329417120","authorId":"3567136329417120","name":"Yc3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6fb3b8c918f8718ab8d5b1792e9f37","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Comment this post please","listText":"Comment this post please","text":"Comment this post please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359115714","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3848988,"gmtCreate":1616373590812,"gmtModify":1680781206819,"authorId":3567136329417120,"author":{"id":3567136329417120,"authorId":3567136329417120,"name":"Yc3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6fb3b8c918f8718ab8d5b1792e9f37","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":359115714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359115867,"gmtCreate":1616373540159,"gmtModify":1704793144000,"author":{"id":"3557433279201512","authorId":"3557433279201512","name":"Couragesther","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb776fde22322bb11f3651d216a6b06e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hmm.... Microsoft might be a better play","listText":"Hmm.... Microsoft might be a better play","text":"Hmm.... Microsoft might be a better play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359115867","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359119370,"gmtCreate":1616373225790,"gmtModify":1704793135122,"author":{"id":"3554690739454545","authorId":"3554690739454545","name":"Shifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eba636a69f64b047187455fad28835a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Why we should trust analyst? Be your own analyst!&nbsp;","listText":"Why we should trust analyst? Be your own analyst!&nbsp;","text":"Why we should trust analyst? Be your own analyst!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359119370","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359131268,"gmtCreate":1616372788854,"gmtModify":1704793124612,"author":{"id":"3568147919716944","authorId":"3568147919716944","name":"MK虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359131268","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3848823,"gmtCreate":1616372924957,"gmtModify":1680781204936,"authorId":3568147919716944,"author":{"id":3568147919716944,"authorId":3568147919716944,"name":"MK虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":359131268,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good sharing","text":"good sharing","html":"good sharing"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359131149,"gmtCreate":1616372782381,"gmtModify":1704793124124,"author":{"id":"3571992769878529","authorId":"3571992769878529","name":"Nisnivlek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7e63ae933a3a94693af3ca8b29c972","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Its will be back soon","listText":"Its will be back soon","text":"Its will be back soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359131149","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3848902,"gmtCreate":1616373245923,"gmtModify":1680781207763,"authorId":3576056007940397,"author":{"id":3576056007940397,"authorId":3576056007940397,"name":"Audrey Chew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d86a9f94030f9c99398b8cd03b7d90","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":359131149,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"how come","text":"how come","html":"how come"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359199195,"gmtCreate":1616371592917,"gmtModify":1704793110321,"author":{"id":"3572590718334117","authorId":"3572590718334117","name":"Exodus75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de5fc2e6ca7cfc98789dc61beebb49a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Thanks for the article.","listText":"Thanks for the article.","text":"Thanks for the article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359199195","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359104646,"gmtCreate":1616371347585,"gmtModify":1704793106745,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Cannot agree with the point. Apple ? is a great company&nbsp;","listText":"Cannot agree with the point. Apple ? is a great company&nbsp;","text":"Cannot agree with the point. Apple ? is a great company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359104646","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359108450,"gmtCreate":1616371075770,"gmtModify":1704793101045,"author":{"id":"3576834314386062","authorId":"3576834314386062","name":"Snow19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359108450","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359101487,"gmtCreate":1616370995849,"gmtModify":1704793100392,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Not necessarily to be agreed","listText":"Not necessarily to be agreed","text":"Not necessarily to be agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359101487","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359100509,"gmtCreate":1616370699001,"gmtModify":1704793095601,"author":{"id":"3557704252084480","authorId":"3557704252084480","name":"Ys0603","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04dcff992ac02c43b8f62c82d531fbd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359100509","repostId":1103756496,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3848515,"gmtCreate":1616370868820,"gmtModify":1680781192787,"authorId":3557704252084480,"author":{"id":3557704252084480,"authorId":3557704252084480,"name":"Ys0603","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04dcff992ac02c43b8f62c82d531fbd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":359100509,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":359100287,"gmtCreate":1616370697049,"gmtModify":1704793095438,"author":{"id":"3561548364525556","authorId":"3561548364525556","name":"Jack in the Stock","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef3c19f727783ca8030d5aab5b19df10","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Not big fan, but I think APPLE is quite strong. Don’t be fooled by temporary set back.","listText":"Not big fan, but I think APPLE is quite strong. Don’t be fooled by temporary set back.","text":"Not big fan, but I think APPLE is quite strong. 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