Earning Preview: Enphase Energy Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 10.13%, and institutional views are cautious
Earnings Agent01-27
Abstract
Enphase Energy will report its fourth-quarter results on February 03, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to softer revenue and earnings, and investor attention on margins and U.S. residential solar demand stabilization.
Market Forecast
The market’s consolidated expectations for the current quarter indicate total revenue of USD 339.37 million, with a forecast year-over-year decrease of 10.13%, along with estimated EBIT of USD 75.23 million (year-over-year decrease of 25.06%) and EPS of USD 0.58 (year-over-year decrease of 20.51%). No explicit gross profit margin or net profit margin guidance was provided in the forecast dataset; however, the market will focus on potential margin normalization as pricing and mix evolve.
The main business is expected to remain anchored by currently delivered products in microinverters and storage with cautious outlook tied to residential solar demand in the U.S. and inventory digestion trends. The most promising segment remains currently delivered products, supported by resilient distributed energy adoption, though the forecast implies subdued growth given the revenue decline of 10.13%.
Last Quarter Review
Enphase Energy’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 410.43 million, a gross profit margin of 31.34%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 66.64 million, a net profit margin of 16.24%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.90, with revenue up 7.76% year-over-year.
A key highlight was adjusted EPS of USD 0.90 surpassing market estimates, reflected in EBIT of USD 123.40 million beating prior forecasts. Main business highlights included currently delivered products revenue of USD 383.00 million and revenue from previously delivered products and services of USD 27.43 million, underpinning the quarter’s performance mix.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Currently Delivered Products (Microinverters and Storage)
Currently delivered products represent the core revenue engine, contributing USD 383.00 million last quarter. The forecast for this quarter suggests total revenue of USD 339.37 million, implying sequential pressure as channel inventory optimization and demand normalization continue. Pricing discipline and product mix will matter for gross margins, particularly as the company balances volume with profitability. The last quarter’s gross profit margin of 31.34% provides a reference point; investors will evaluate whether cost actions, manufacturing efficiency, and component cost tailwinds can offset any pricing headwinds. With net profit margin at 16.24% last quarter, maintaining margin resilience against a forecast revenue decline will be a central theme for this quarter’s results.
Most Promising Business: Distributed Residential Solar Attach Rates and Storage
The most promising growth vector lies in the attach rate of storage with microinverter deployments and the broader distributed energy adoption trend. Although the quarter’s revenue forecast implies a year-over-year decline of 10.13%, the strategic opportunity remains intact for stabilization and re-acceleration as interest rate dynamics and installer inventory levels normalize. The mix of storage revenue, while not separately quantified in the dataset, tends to enhance margin profile when product availability and demand align, and when regional markets like California, Europe, and Australia contribute consistently. Management’s focus on operational execution, channel health, and product innovation should frame the path for improved EBIT, with the current forecast at USD 75.23 million signaling near-term caution while keeping medium-term optionality.
Stock Price Drivers: Margins, Demand Normalization, and Guidance
This quarter’s stock performance is likely to be shaped by how gross and net margins track against the prior quarter’s 31.34% and 16.24% respectively. While explicit margin guidance was not provided in the forecast dataset, investors will look for signals of stabilization through cost controls, manufacturing scale efficiencies, and product mix. Demand normalization remains pivotal; a revenue forecast of USD 339.37 million and an EPS estimate of USD 0.58 indicate cautious expectations, and any positive surprises on backlog, regional demand recovery, or improved sell-through could re-rate expectations. Guidance will be decisive for sentiment—clarity on first-half demand trends, channel inventories, and the pace of attach rate recovery in storage could influence how the market extrapolates the earnings trajectory for the next few quarters.
Analyst Opinions
Cautious views currently form the majority stance, reflecting the forecast year-over-year revenue decline of 10.13%, EPS decline of 20.51%, and EBIT decline of 25.06%. Institutions emphasize near-term headwinds in residential solar demand and the need for further proof of margin durability as inventory dynamics and pricing trends evolve. Analysts aligned with the cautious outlook expect management to underscore operational discipline and a measured approach to guidance, seeking clearer evidence of demand stabilization before revising estimates upward. As a result, the prevailing opinion anticipates conservative commentary around the quarter’s revenue, margins, and EPS, consistent with the consolidated estimates landscape.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
