AMD's Shares May Have Priced In Milan's Future Success

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AMD's Shares May Have Priced In Milan's Future Success

seekingalpha2021-04-07

Summary AMD’s Milan server CPU can achieve an impressive performance improvement by design shifts alone, without the move to a lower manufacturing node. Milan looks to increase AMD’s server market ...

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CloudElijah
·2021-04-07
Nice
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jeff123
·2021-04-07
Like and comment pls.tqvm
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- Jeremyyeojc:
  comment back hehe
  2021-04-07
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Pat07
·2021-04-07
Nice!
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- Irene104Replying toPat07:
  Welcome :)
  2021-04-07
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- Pat07:
  thanks
  2021-04-07
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- Irene104:
  Like. Like please. Thank you.
  2021-04-07
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For the last 4 years, AMD share price surged over 629% at the back of 262% increase in sales and 198% increase in market share (Figure 1). Apparently, AMD shares have been priced at a hefty premium over its fundamentals. The newly launched Milan products give us an opportunity to examine the source of AMD's price premium. As a matter of fact, Milan’s exponential revenue growth potential may justify AMD’s current valuation. In other words, AMD’s current price may have priced in Milan’s success.\n\nForward-Looking Analysis\nMilan Outperforms Rome and Intel’s 14nm Server CPUs\nDuring the Milan Launch Event, AMD illustrated performance comparisons between 3rd generation EPYC vs. 2nd generation Rome and vs. 14nm Intel server CPUs. Like the Rome generation, the 7003 series processors have up to 64 cores, 128 threads, 128 lanes of PCIe 4.0, 8 DDR4 memory channels with 4TB memory capacity. Improvements from the Rome generation include an improved core complex/architecture, improved security features, and improved peak power. Compared to Rome, Milan has 19% better instructions per clock (IPC) performance. AMD showed more than double the performance vs. Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)across certain HPC, Cloud and Enterprise workloads.\nMilan addresses 100% of available workloads.\nAMD’s Naples and Rome all had notable gaps in the number of workloads it could address. Naples was at 60% of total workloads and about one half of enterprise workloads. Rome was at 80% of total workloads and about 75% of enterprise workloads. But 3rdgen Milan is expected to address 100% of available workloads across Cloud, Enterprise and HPC. In particular, AMD highlighted hyper-converged infrastructure, relational databases, and data analytics as key areas for performance improvement with Milan. It has more than double the performance in HCI and database workloads vs. 14nm Intel CPUs. AMD expects 100 new OEM platforms to be launched in 2021 based on Milan.\nServer CPUs/PCs/Consoles to Power AMD's Growth\nAMD’s near-term sales growth is aided by the continuing server CPU share gains, a better PC backdrop, and a gaming console refresh cycle. The company’s guided 37% 2021 growth may eventually prove to be conservative if Cloud momentum returns and a shortage-free consumer segment buys more PC, Xbox, and PS5 units. AMD may see meaningful share gain in high-margin (server) segment if Milan products can deliver with continuous improvement in its server GPUs. Substantial console chip gains will aid EESC segment sales from 4Q20 through 2021. The street expects that PCs will add another 2% shipment growth in 2021, after 2020’s 13% growth. In total, AMD may see 2021 sales growth to exceed 40% and 25% in 2022 (Table 1).\n\nHigher-End Product with High-Pricing Strategy Drive High Margins.\nAMD's sales growth is driven by high-performance products with high margins. The expansion to high-performance EPYC 3 likely raises chip prices and expands gross margin to 47-48% (Bloomberg). In fact, AMD has moved to a stronger (higher) pricing power even before COVID hit. The average selling price nearly doubled since 2017 (Figure 2). That is, over 90% of the 200% revenue growth in the past 3 years has been a result of the stronger pricing power. AMD's platform structure of processor development using consistent architectures allows operating expense growth to lag sales expansion. Even with a portfolio of CPUs and GPUs, AMD’s 45% gross margin has lagged Intel’s 58% and Nvidia’s 66%. Though its 50% margin target maybe a few years away, it is expected that AMD can expand to 47% by 2021 and 48% by 2022 (Table 1).\n\nBase Case Valuation\nUsing the forward-looking case described above, I will price AMD’s shares on its base case scenario. Instead of computing how AMD shares \"should be\" valued, i.e., fair value, I examine the process how AMD shares are actually priced, relative to the relevant fundamentals. To this goal, I first identified the financial metrics that haveregularly driven AMD price movements, i.e., forecast revenue, EPS, gross margin, capex, and free cash flow. Using the data from a 4-year \"moving window\" over time, I estimated a moving historical relationship between these financial metrics and AMD share prices (multiple regression). Then I assume that the most recent relationship estimated by the end of 2020 is stable enough to be used to forecast AMD share prices in 2021 and 2022. Using the consensus forecast of the financial metrics in 2021 and 2022 (Table 1), I estimated the corresponding AMD prices for the same time points. For example, AMD’s base case price, per Q1’s fundamentals, should be around $77 (Figure 3 and Table 2).\n\nNon-Linear Thinking\nAt the first approximation, AMD’s current price at $81 may appear too high, relative to the base value of $77. However, the above estimation suffers from the error of a linear thinking which contradicts how high growth stocks, such as AMD, usually move. The high-growth stock valuation often has a nonlinear component which relates to the exponential growth in revenue and earnings. For AMD, gaining market share may be a more important factor to affect valuation in addition to the regular factors. This possibility can be observed from the close relationship between AMD’s CPU revenue share (vs. Intel’s) and AMD’s share price (Figure 4).\nMilan Drives to Gain Server Share from Intel in 2021\nClearly, AMD has steadily gained CPU market shares across all segments in 2020 (3 figures below). Based on a study by AMD and Mercury Research, using Q3 2020 data, AMD has 22.4% of the overall x86 share, a level which traces back almost 13 years ago (Q4 2007). The new Ryzen 4000 also allowed AMD to gain the largest Q3 market share increase (+5.5% y/y) in the notebook segment. In Q4 2020, while delivering one of the largest revenues, citing its \"supply constraints,\" Advanced Micro Deviceslost PC market sharefor the first time since 2017 (from 20.1% to 19.3% desktop market share). AMD mentioned that it will face 'tightness' of supply in the first half of 2021 with Big Navi graphics cards and some models of Ryzen 5000 CPU.\n(3 Graphs from Bloomberg)\n\nIn terms of the most profitable server market shares (EPYC vs. Xeon SP), depending on whether to include Intel's Atom SoC division, AMD's Q3 server gained share between 0.8% and 1.7%. For Q4 2020, AMD held 7.1% server market share, significantly higher than the 4.5% in Q4 2019. Though, in 2020 AMD's CEO Lisa Su said AMD had passed the 10% share of the profitable server chip market and that while the supply of leading-edge chips is tight, the company is confident it can meet increasing demand.\nEYPC Traction across Cloud, HPC, and Enterprise Customers\nDuring the launch event and its press release, AMD discussed a number of partners across Cloud (e.g. AWS(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google Cloud(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft Azure(NASDAQ:MSFT), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)), HPC (new wins in Europe, Australia, including with Instinct GPU) and Enterprise (e.g. Dell(NYSE:DELL), Lenovo(OTCPK:LNVGY),HPE, VMware(NYSE:VMW)and others). Combined, AMD expects the number of cloud instances to roughly double to more than 400 instances. In the press release, AMD noted that AWS will add EC2 instances later this year. Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud both announced new Milan-based instances will be available later in 2021.\n1% Server Market Share Increase May Add $10 AMD Share Price\nAMD poised to gain further share in 2021, but upside could be limited due to supply constraints. But AMD may benefit from strong market demand and from new workloads on Milan. AMD may have about 7%-8% share of the x86 server CPU market, it is reasonably expected that AMD will likely be on track to gain 2-3 percentage points of market share in 2021 and likely into 2022. Similarly, using consensus forecast of AMD future revenue share vs. Intel revenue share as a proxy for future market share, AMD may gain at least 3% total CPU market share (from 15.14% to 18.42%) by 2022 (Table 1). It should be noted that historically, AMD share price has been very sensitive to the changes in market share (Figure 4). For every 1% server market share increase, it will add$10to AMD’s share price. Thus, the forthcoming 2% server market share gain may add up to $20 to AMD’s base case valuation.\n\nSupply Shortage May Dissipate by 2H 2021\nOther complications suggest that market share gains this year has been held back due to industry-wide supply constraints. Although, there is someindicationthat AMD’s supply shortage may largely dissipate in 2H 2021. Moreover, Intel is expected to benefit from strong demand on its Ice Lake (10nm) processor family later this year and into next year for Sapphire Rapids. And Intel is not as likely to be supply constrained.\n“Non-Linear” Exponential Valuation\nAs AMD’s realistic valuation should include the non-linear component of the market share increase driven from Milan’s products, AMD’s valuation is revised to account for the changes in market share. In Table 2, AMD’s Q1 target price is $83, which is $6 higher than the base case valuation, and closer to the actual $81. This would also imply that the market may have priced in the exponential increase in revenue because of server market share increase from Milan’s products.\nXilinx’s $10 Accretion Has 85% Chance to Happen\nOn thecallabout XLNX’s(NASDAQ:XLNX)acquisition, AMD discussed the cost synergies primarily driven by COGS and SG&A, where the $300 million synergies benefit is primarily due to reduced public company costs. On the financial impact,JP Morganestimated 25c-30c of earnings accretion post-synergies. In contrast,Deutsche Bankconsiders AMD’s acquiring Xilinx is a driver of revenue synergies in Datacenter compute (FPGA+CPU drives synergies) and Communications. Or alternatively, the acquisition is an FCF-driving insurance policy for AMD against a resurgent INTC given XLNX's historical stability. As a result, Deutsche estimated a +50 cent EPS accretion in their long-term EPS forecast including XLNX, but with a lower multiple.\nMizuhoestimated a “$0.13 in EPS accretion which could add $5/share value to AMD at more conservative 40x P/E vs. AMD currently at 47x.” Using the probability-weighted deal prices,MorningStarestimated AMD's standalone fair value at $67 per share along with a fair value for the combined entity $80 per share (75% probability to close). On average, the consensus is that there could be a $10 accretion impact on AMD share price (Table 3). Though, the $10 share accretion will only realize when and if AMD closes the deal with Xilinxby the end of 2021. It appears that the market has priced in about 85% chance that the merger will go through, as indicated by Xilinx’s share price’s jump to $120.6 amid the announcement of AMD’s $143 buy price.\n\nA Sum-of-the-Values Valuation (SOTV)\nFinally, AMD’s price target can be derived by summing the various sources of the value accretion. Using Q1 2021 as an example (Table 4), AMD has a base case valuation (100% chance) of $77 and $5 additional value from the expected increase (60% chance) from server market share. That will give a realistic AMD target price around $83 (Table 2). By the time when XLNX deal is perceived a “go,” AMD price may increase by another $8.5. As a result, AMD may be reasonably priced around $91-$92.More importantly, the same logic will forecast that AMD share price may rise to $100 by 2021 and $150 by 2022 (Table 2).\nA Sum-of-the-Values Valuation (SOTV)\nFinally, AMD’s price target can be derived by summing the various sources of the value accretion. Using Q1 2021 as an example (Table 4), AMD has a base case valuation (100% chance) of $77 and $5 additional value from the expected increase (60% chance) from server market share. That will give a realistic AMD target price around $83 (Table 2). By the time when XLNX deal is perceived a “go,” AMD price may increase by another $8.5. As a result, AMD may be reasonably priced around$91-$92.More importantly, the same logic will forecast that AMD share price may rise to $100 by 2021 and $150 by 2022 (Table 2).\n\nSeeking Alpha Posters’ Opinion\nAs I always value SA posters’ opinion, I often solicit readers’ input on the valuation of the stock they follow. For comparisons, their estimates on AMD’s valuation are listed in the table below. The average estimate is over $100 which is much higher than the current $80. Admittedly, we have a (BULL) selection bias here. We will see if the entire group is right by Q2 2021.\n\nTakeaways\nOnce again, AMD may be able to achieve a significant performance improvement by design shifts alone, without the move to a lower manufacturing node. There is no reason to believe that AMD cannot continue its usual, strong execution. Therefore, Milan looks to increase AMD’s server market share by 1%-2% a year and propel 2021 revenue growth over 40%.\nWithout Milan, AMD shares may be overvalued at the current $81, per linear pricing on forecasted fundamentals. With Milan’s exponential growth potential, AMD may be priced around $83. This is before the $10 accretion from Xilinx’s merger. Considering the non-linear nature of the company’s revenue growth, AMD share may reach $100 by the end of 2021, $150 by 2022.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":341190890,"gmtCreate":1617788998710,"gmtModify":1704703147750,"author":{"id":"3577530058213588","authorId":"3577530058213588","name":"CloudElijah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33326dad985abfb1c3262337a4b2f3b4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341190890","repostId":1105113940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341319368,"gmtCreate":1617781464454,"gmtModify":1704703036894,"author":{"id":"3578111079453218","authorId":"3578111079453218","name":"jeff123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2c71145c4a9a4565a59fc5476086738","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls.tqvm","listText":"Like and comment pls.tqvm","text":"Like and comment pls.tqvm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341319368","repostId":1105113940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3977530,"gmtCreate":1617783038916,"gmtModify":1680783161596,"authorId":3578061345924822,"author":{"id":3578061345924822,"authorId":3578061345924822,"name":"Jeremyyeojc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96261aa62716a70270967e52a5bcdd13","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.15","exceedPercentage":"93.00%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341319368,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment back hehe","text":"comment back hehe","html":"comment back hehe"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341310888,"gmtCreate":1617781303444,"gmtModify":1704703036405,"author":{"id":"3552951172021422","authorId":"3552951172021422","name":"Pat07","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7f2fc12edf68bb7d273f5ab6c5844a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341310888","repostId":1105113940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3979157,"gmtCreate":1617799427885,"gmtModify":1680783192781,"authorId":3579485832735627,"author":{"id":3579485832735627,"authorId":3579485832735627,"name":"Irene104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51a81271b5c1b4f1ca7b728f547fc3ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3552951172021422,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3552951172021422,"authorId":3552951172021422,"name":"Pat07","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7f2fc12edf68bb7d273f5ab6c5844a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":341310888,"type":1,"supId":3977577,"prevId":3978535,"content":"Welcome :)","text":"Welcome :)","html":"Welcome :)"},{"id":3978535,"gmtCreate":1617792534939,"gmtModify":1680783176580,"authorId":3552951172021422,"author":{"id":3552951172021422,"authorId":3552951172021422,"name":"Pat07","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7f2fc12edf68bb7d273f5ab6c5844a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341310888,"type":1,"supId":3977577,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"},{"id":3977577,"gmtCreate":1617783488309,"gmtModify":1680783165547,"authorId":3579485832735627,"author":{"id":3579485832735627,"authorId":3579485832735627,"name":"Irene104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51a81271b5c1b4f1ca7b728f547fc3ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341310888,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like. Like please. Thank you.","text":"Like. Like please. Thank you.","html":"Like. Like please. Thank you."}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}