NIO: Cementing Its Position In The EV Space

seekingalpha2021-04-28

Summary Outperformance in Q4 instills confidence that revenue is on track to grow by a forecasted 124.19% in 2021. NIO’s unique energy solution, including Battery as a Service (BaaS) and Battery Swap...

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Comment（15）

RonaldSTH
·2021-04-29
Target Price of $51.41 is pretty modest.$60 is a better peg. Any comments?
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NKT9493
·2021-04-29
Let’s see where NIO (share price) is in 2030! It’s going to be a ride that no one expects; not even the most optimistic investors!
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Money Sprout
·2021-04-28
[Facepalm] do not miss out on such a deal now!
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Bloom88
·2021-04-28
Woohoo!
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AlexCP
·2021-04-28
Go go go
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1
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- AlexCP:
  Fly fly fly
  2021-04-28
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yw933
·2021-04-28
LETS GO NIO LETS GO!!!
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Luck93
·2021-04-28
Nio will continue to be bullish and probably even beat market expectation in its earning report.Like and comment thanks!
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- Money Sprout:
  I think the price has the latEst earnings taken in?
  2021-04-28
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- khe:
  Nice
  2021-04-28
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Mandysweets
·2021-04-28
Amazing!
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- 林癸源:
  [正经]
  2021-04-28
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Dummy_Inv
·2021-04-28
Cool .. Opportunity to buy .. comment and like pls for coins [Cool]
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XMTX
·2021-04-28
Nice like and comment thanks
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4
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- ponyinvestor:
  Give me a like PLEASE
  2021-04-28
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Tarnek
·2021-04-28
is it time to load up?
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- ASCNMN:
  HMMMMM
  2021-04-29
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- Money Sprout:
  Anything below 45 Is a heavy buy
  2021-04-28
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JaydenKng
·2021-04-28
Will it go further? Lets see
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- XMTX:
  hope it will
  2021-04-28
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- Marc_:
  time will tell:)
  2021-04-28
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Ceyi
·2021-04-28
Good
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- XMTX:
  nice
  2021-04-28
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Marc_
·2021-04-28
?
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- HUATkueh:
  Ok
  2021-04-28
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- Juvie:
  yes
  2021-04-28
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Nicklee
·2021-04-28
Nio in five years. >>>?
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However, the drivers of the firm remain unchanged and I see this as an opportunity for investors to buy into weakness and invest in the long-term growth story of NIO and the EV industry.\nCompany Overview\nNIO Inc. designs, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services.\nIts products include the EP9 supercar, ES8 7-seater SUV, ES6 5-seater SUV, EC6 5-seater crossover SUV and the ET7 autonomous sedan. Of which, the ES6 is the best-seller, followed by the EC6. The company also provides users with home charging (Nio House), and power express valet service (Nio Power) and other power solutions including access to public charging, access to power mobile charging trucks, and battery swapping. It also offers other value-added services such as service package, battery payment arrangement, and vehicle financing and license plate registration.\nNet sales are distributed geographically as follows: China (100%).\nNet Sales by Category of Products Breakdown\nSource: Nio Inc. Financial Report 2020\nNet sales from various products are as follows: Vehicle (93.4%), Energy Package, Service Package and Other Embedded Services (6.6%).\nFY2020 Analysis\nNIO had an FY20 earnings beat. There is top-line growth of 172.8% with the bottom line growing by 30.2%. This is primarily due to a strong quarter 4, which benefited from the reopening of the economy in China. Q4 revenue grew 133% YoY and 47% QoQ. I also see this as a barometer of post-pandemic demand in FY21. Another positive sign is the improvement of Gross Profit Margin (GPM) to 17.2%, with the operating expense ratio (OER) narrowing to 31.2% in Q4.\nOutperformance in Q4 instills confidence that revenue is on track to grow by a forecasted 124.19% in 2021. In addition, the strong guidance given by senior management for Q121 was met according to the latest announcement; 20,060 vehicles delivered in the first 3 months, a 423% YoY increase.\nUnique Energy Solution\nContrasting to Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA), NIO believes that drivers are now ready for \"Battery-as-a-service\" and offers an electric car with a swappable battery. There are a few strategic advantages to that move.\nOne is the lower upfront EV cost which makes it a lot more palatable for consumers to adopt NIO cars vs. conventional ones and other competitors. Secondly, battery swapping is a great avenue to retrieve data points on battery performance and user preferences, which are critical in the long run. Thirdly, it distinguishes NIO from its fiercest competitor Tesla in the luxury EV market.\nNot forgetting the additional revenue stream from NIO House, NIO Power and other power solutions. The increase in the proportion of \"Other Sales\" to revenue affirms that.\nExtension of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Subsidy to 2022\nNEV subsidy has been a key driver in the adoption of electric vehicles in China. In fact, the subsidy scheme has been around since 2009. Originally slated to end in 2020, the Chinese government decided to extend it for another 2 years but with tightened qualification.\nEVs over CNY300,000 are eligible for subsidies only if they support battery swapping. This favours NIO as it considerably reduces the prices of NIO models.\nSubsidy and Baas Impact on NIO prices\nSource: Counterpoint Research\nBooming Industry\nChina is the world's largest auto market and the pie for the EV market is huge. NIO being one of the market leaders, has a long runway to grow its business. In addition, the rising wealth and the fast-growing middle class, coupled with the dual circulation strategy will serve as a strong tailwind for the EV industry.\nAccording to the China Society of Automotive Engineers (China-SAE), Sales of NEV in China are expected to grow by 4x to 20% of overall new car sales by 2025, and to 50% by 2035. The commitment by Xi Jinping to cut greenhouse gases might potentially accelerate that growth as well.\nRisks\nEven though there are fears in the market over sudden interest rates hike by the Fed, it's extremely unlikely given the repeated commitment to hold rates till 2023. That being said, the increase in rates can be detrimental to NIO's valuation and will increase their financing cost.\nContinuous shortage of semiconductors has led to NIO's temporary suspension of production in March. Though this is unlikely to occur again, it remains as an overhang for the automobile industry.\nWorse-than-expected execution and delivery of vehicles will also be a drag to the business. I take comfort in Q1 delivery figures.\nValuation\nThere is a broad decline of EV counters in recent months due to the risk-off sentiment in the Chinese market and profit-taking after a record year. The climbing UST was also a huge downer for the equity market.\nHowever, I believe these are systematic factors, not specific to the firm. The structural story of the booming EV market remains intact. The fundamentals of NIO are still sound. As such, investors should take this opportunity to buy into weakness.\nIncome Statement\nSource: Bloomberg, Proprietary Analysis\nBased on my forecast model, revenue is expected to grow 124% in 2021, on the back of 2.5x sales volume in 2021. GPM will improve to 18.1%, almost doubling 2020 GPM. Net Income will only improve marginally as R&D expenditure is expected to weigh down heavily on net income.\nTarget Price Matrix\nSource: Bloomberg, Proprietary Analysis\nCurrent P/S at 16.6x, although lower than XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI), embedded excessive optimism in it. A fairer P/S ratio for NIO is 10.0x, which is 39.75% lower than the current P/S.\nUsing a P/S of 10.0x, I derive a target price of USD 51.41, which provides an upside of 25.14% return over a 12-month period.\nConclusion\nMy rating on NIO Inc. is Buy. With a current trading price of USD 41.08 and a target price of USD 51.41, the upside return is 25.14%.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":109167440,"gmtCreate":1619674763180,"gmtModify":1704727814840,"author":{"id":"3580445955391890","authorId":"3580445955391890","authorIdStr":"3580445955391890","name":"RonaldSTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/390194fd6f59520ee0b7649e7fabb953","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580445955391890"},"htmlText":"Target Price of $51.41 is pretty modest.$60 is a better peg. Any comments?","listText":"Target Price of $51.41 is pretty modest.$60 is a better peg. Any comments?","text":"Target Price of $51.41 is pretty modest.$60 is a better peg. Any comments?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109167440","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":109948828,"gmtCreate":1619661079464,"gmtModify":1704727573081,"author":{"id":"3576583202640797","authorId":"3576583202640797","authorIdStr":"3576583202640797","name":"NKT9493","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6332e9e73fa2d969a123da1e4579ec09","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576583202640797"},"htmlText":"Let’s see where NIO (share price)&nbsp;is in 2030! It’s going to be&nbsp;a ride that no one expects; not even the most optimistic investors!","listText":"Let’s see where NIO (share price)&nbsp;is in 2030! It’s going to be&nbsp;a ride that no one expects; not even the most optimistic investors!","text":"Let’s see where NIO (share price) is in 2030! It’s going to be a ride that no one expects; not even the most optimistic investors!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109948828","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":100190407,"gmtCreate":1619586437009,"gmtModify":1704726392694,"author":{"id":"3567511757211423","authorId":"3567511757211423","authorIdStr":"3567511757211423","name":"Money Sprout","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a90f46b85a1738ed3c9b09de55cb7371","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3567511757211423"},"htmlText":"[Facepalm]&nbsp; do not miss out on such a deal now!","listText":"[Facepalm]&nbsp; do not miss out on such a deal now!","text":"[Facepalm] do not miss out on such a deal now!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100190407","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":100101481,"gmtCreate":1619585817943,"gmtModify":1704726384161,"author":{"id":"3579815534956625","authorId":"3579815534956625","authorIdStr":"3579815534956625","name":"Bloom88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033cde0577d9fb0c09cb6a7956e22236","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579815534956625"},"htmlText":"Woohoo!","listText":"Woohoo!","text":"Woohoo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100101481","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":100342765,"gmtCreate":1619584524357,"gmtModify":1704726361823,"author":{"id":"3577585319193105","authorId":"3577585319193105","authorIdStr":"3577585319193105","name":"AlexCP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4675b625a128097d1dba0b56cfafb1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577585319193105"},"htmlText":"Go go go","listText":"Go go go","text":"Go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100342765","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4157601,"gmtCreate":1619584535405,"gmtModify":1680785965914,"authorId":3577585319193105,"author":{"id":3577585319193105,"authorId":3577585319193105,"name":"AlexCP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4675b625a128097d1dba0b56cfafb1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":100342765,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Fly fly fly","text":"Fly fly fly","html":"Fly fly fly"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":100343363,"gmtCreate":1619584128952,"gmtModify":1704726354209,"author":{"id":"3574837927228093","authorId":"3574837927228093","authorIdStr":"3574837927228093","name":"yw933","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574837927228093"},"htmlText":"LETS GO NIO LETS GO!!!&nbsp;","listText":"LETS GO NIO LETS GO!!!&nbsp;","text":"LETS GO NIO LETS GO!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100343363","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":100365507,"gmtCreate":1619582137309,"gmtModify":1704726319538,"author":{"id":"3580014056152274","authorId":"3580014056152274","authorIdStr":"3580014056152274","name":"Luck93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae7f0ce33ae6a51568df8a678abb93e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580014056152274"},"htmlText":"Nio will continue to be bullish and probably even beat market expectation in its earning report.Like and comment thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Nio will continue to be bullish and probably even beat market expectation in its earning report.Like and comment thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Nio will continue to be bullish and probably even beat market expectation in its earning report.Like and comment thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100365507","repostId":1105336000,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4157832,"gmtCreate":1619586468423,"gmtModify":1680785972682,"authorId":3567511757211423,"author":{"id":3567511757211423,"authorId":3567511757211423,"name":"Money Sprout","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a90f46b85a1738ed3c9b09de55cb7371","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"23f878ed27704312ae41c7f17e73b319-5","templateUuid":"23f878ed27704312ae41c7f17e73b319","name":"Annualised return","description":"Top 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