According to Jacky Tang, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets at Deutsche Bank's Private Banking division, oil prices could decline to $85–90 per barrel by the end of the second quarter under a baseline scenario where a "fragile" ceasefire holds.
He noted there is more than a 60% probability of this baseline scenario materializing, with the majority of energy supplies expected to be restored by the end of Q2.
Tang outlined three potential oil price trajectories depending on the duration of conflict involving Iran. In an unlikely pessimistic scenario—where the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked through next year—he projected that oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel and remain elevated for an extended period, potentially triggering stagflation risks.
