Production and supply maintained steady growth, market sales continued to expand, and foreign trade resilience remained evident... The economic performance data for the first four months of the year, released on May 18, show that from January to April, the national economy sustained a stable and progressive development trend, with high-quality development advancing towards new and superior directions. Achieving such results against a backdrop of complex and challenging international conditions once again demonstrates the strong resilience of the Chinese economy.
Among the series of data, fluctuations in demand-side indicators such as consumption and investment have drawn attention. For example, in April, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.2% year-on-year but declined by 0.48% month-on-month. Similarly, from January to April, national fixed asset investment decreased by 1.6% year-on-year. How should we view these fluctuations from a dialectical perspective?
On one hand, looking beyond the specifics to the broader picture, the "steady" tone of the Chinese economy remains unchanged.
In the first four months, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size and the service industry production index increased by 5.6% and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively. The value-added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.7% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively. Total goods imports and exports rose by 14.9% year-on-year, while service retail sales increased by 5.6%... This series of data indicates that new quality productive forces are thriving, and industrial upgrading is steadily progressing. At the same time, the urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, energy supply continued to grow steadily, and basic livelihoods and safe development were well safeguarded.
Overall, despite short-term fluctuations in some demand-side indicators, the Chinese economy continues to exhibit a positive trend of advancing towards new and superior development.
On the other hand, looking beyond the short term to the long term, the fundamental aspect of substantial demand potential remains unchanged.
Any economy experiences short-term fluctuations due to various factors, but the underlying trend does not change as a result.
From the perspective of consumption, although total retail sales showed a month-on-month decline in April, the cumulative data for January to April still achieved a year-on-year growth of 1.9%. Currently, China's household consumption is transitioning from being dominated by goods consumption to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services consumption. Preliminary estimates show that the total retail sales of consumer goods and services from January to April increased by 3.2% year-on-year, maintaining overall stability compared to the first quarter.
Today, with a per capita GDP exceeding $13,000, China is in a stage of rapid consumption structure upgrading, and the advantages and characteristics of its ultra-large market—such as vast capacity, multiple tiers, and extensive depth—are becoming increasingly evident. Moving forward, by deepening the implementation of actions to boost consumption and expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, consumption potential will gradually be unleashed.
From the perspective of investment, after turning from negative to positive growth in the first quarter, investment growth showed a year-on-year decline in the first four months, which is a normal fluctuation between months. Excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment in the first four months still achieved a growth of 1.3%, with investment in high-tech industries increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, reflecting the accelerated growth of new driving forces. The optimization of the investment structure has laid a foundation for medium- to long-term economic development.
As the world's second-largest economy, China's per capita infrastructure capital stock currently stands at 20%–30% of that of developed countries, indicating significant investment potential in addressing shortcomings, strengthening weak areas, and optimizing the structure. By promoting the commencement of major projects for the 15th Five-Year Plan, advancing infrastructure construction, and stimulating private investment, effective investment will continue to materialize.
In summary, since the beginning of this year, domestic demand has generally improved under the influence of policies such as "dual circulation" and "new infrastructure." However, it is also important to recognize that the foundation for stable and improving economic conditions still needs to be consolidated, and efforts are required to resolve the contradiction between "strong supply and weak demand."
To this end, it is essential to enhance confidence and implement economic work with greater intensity and more practical measures. In particular, by expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, deepening the implementation of actions to expand and improve the service industry, and strengthening the planning and construction of the "six networks," domestic demand potential can be further tapped, and the intrinsic driving force of the Chinese economy can be continuously strengthened.
With a vibrant production side and a thriving demand side, the Chinese economy will continue to reach new heights in both quantitative growth and qualitative improvement.
