To The Moon

U.S. stock futures dropped on Monday morning, putting the S&P 500 on track to fall back into bear market territory and possibly to a new low for 2022. A jump in short-term rates drove the negative sentiment as investors still reeling from a hotter-than-expected inflation report on Friday braced for the Federal Reserve to raise rates later in the week.

S&P 500 futures fell 2.3% after the benchmark closed Friday down 19% from its record high and just about 2.4% above its sell-off low from last month. The S&P 500 briefly traded in a bear market — down 20% from its high — about three weeks ago but failed to close in that territory. The stock market then bounced in late May until the selling returned last week.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 600 points, or 1.9% after it posted its worst week since January. Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 2.9%.

The short-term 2-year Treasury yield rose by 17 basis points to more than 3.22% Monday, reaching its highest level since 2007as investors bet the Fed may have to get even more aggressive to squash inflation. At one point in the session, the 2-year rate traded above its 10-year counterpart for the first time since April, a so-called yield curve inversion seen as an indicator of a recession.

The major averages last week posted their biggest weekly declines since late January as investors grew increasingly concerned rising inflation will tip the economy into a recession. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 4.6% and 5.1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.6%. A chunk of those losses came Friday, when hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data spooked investors. The Dow dropped 880 points, or 2.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively.

“The odds of a ‘June Swoon’ straight to 3,400 have gone up significantly, in our view,” wrote Jonathan Krinsky, technical analyst for BTIG. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3,900.86.

“We thought a momentum reversion where winners got bought and losers sold would create chop at the index level, but last week is a reminder that the risk continues to be to the downside,” Krinsky added.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the U.S. consumer price index rose last month by 8.6% from a year ago, its fastest increase since December 1981. That gain topped economists’ expectations. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also came in above estimates at 6%.

On top of that, the preliminary June reading for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index registered at a record low of 50.2.

Gasoline prices topped $5 a gallon over the weekend, further fanning fears over rising inflation and falling consumer confidence.