To The Moon

The three major airlines continued their upward trend. At the time of writing, China Southern Air (01055) rose 3.21% to HK$6.1; China East Air (00670) increased 2.63% to HK$5.85; and Air China (00753) gained 2.23% to HK$7.33. Guotai Haitong Securities believes that, based on observations, as universities begin their holidays and business travel gradually recovers, air traffic volume and pricing have started to rebound recently. Concurrently, the pre-sale period for the upcoming Spring Festival travel rush has commenced, leading to a significant surge in ticket issuance. The bank anticipates that demand for the 2026 Spring Festival travel period will remain robust. China's aviation supply has entered an era of low growth, and with ticket prices already marketized, the steady growth in air travel demand coupled with improved airline revenue management is expected to drive a sustainable increase in pricing and profitability, creating potential for both earnings and valuation upside. A Zhongtai Securities research report points out that, in the short term, the favorable factors of lower oil prices and a beneficial exchange rate are expected to persist. Additionally, catalysts such as subsequent "anti-internal competition" initiatives and the upcoming Spring Festival holiday are likely to strengthen the positive outlook for air traffic volume and pricing, leading to a bullish view on aviation investment opportunities driven by these fundamental improvements. In the long run, the positive feedback loop between民航 passenger volume and pricing is gradually becoming apparent. High passenger load factors, combined with industry-wide anti-internal competition proposals, are expected to drive an industry upswing that may exceed expectations, further supporting a positive outlook for aviation investment opportunities.