If one were to choose a keyword for the cross-border e-commerce industry over the past year, "surviving a trial" might be the most fitting.
The interplay of three major forces—fluctuating tariff policies, intensifying overseas regulations, and the rapid penetration of generative AI—has almost simultaneously reshaped the fundamental logic of the industry's operations. Cross-border e-commerce platforms, which once expanded rapidly by relying on low prices, direct mail parcels, and traffic dividends, have been forced to hit the brakes and re-examine the sustainability of their models.
This sector, once perceived as an easy way to make money, has now entered a phase of intense, hardcore competition. The narrative for these platforms is evolving from one of "efficiency" to stories centered on "compliance," "localization," and "brand-building."
As one of the "Four Chinese Cross-Border E-commerce Dragons" (TEMU, SHEIN, AliExpress, TikTok Shop), AliExpress has made "brand globalization" its most critical strategy today. After directly declaring war on Amazon.com last year, AliExpress recently launched its first large-scale merchant recruitment drive of the new year, explicitly naming "Brand Globalization + Overseas Hosting" as the core keywords for 2026.
The four Chinese cross-border e-commerce dragons almost simultaneously entered a period of strategic adjustment over the past year. From the "myth of full hosting" to the "return of semi-hosting," and from price wars to value wars, the cross-border e-commerce sector is collectively undergoing a "trial." This shake-up will determine not only which platforms survive but also the future methods by which Chinese manufacturing and Chinese brands go global.
Focusing on the "Value War" As the elder statesman among cross-border e-commerce platforms, AliExpress maintained a relatively low profile during the industry's frenzied growth in previous years. However, last year, it suddenly became highly vocal. While upgrading its brand globalization strategy from "Billion-Dollar Subsidy for Brand Globalization" to the "Super Brand Globalization Plan," it directly challenged Amazon.com head-on.
The "Super Brand Globalization Plan" championed by AliExpress explicitly states the goal: "to enable merchants to achieve higher transaction volumes in key markets at half the cost of selling on Amazon.com."
On this path, AliExpress's resolve remains strong. It has been learned that after holding its first recruitment conference on January 7th, a new round of AliExpress recruitment conferences is scheduled for January 22nd in Shenzhen, focusing on recruiting merchants with strong brand power or the capability for deep localization.
TEMU, under PDD Holdings Inc, also emphasized the importance of brand globalization at year-end. PDD Holdings Inc's Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, Zhao Jiazhen, stated that in the next phase, TEMU will go all-in on the high quality and branding of the Chinese supply chain to achieve a reinvention of the platform.
Looking back over the past year, the most significant change for cross-border e-commerce platforms has been a collective "course correction" of their existing models.
To cope with policy risks and enhance resilience, China's four major cross-border e-commerce platforms have taken measures in diversifying operational regions, improving operational strategies, promoting semi-hosted models, and increasing the use of overseas warehouse fulfillment methods.
The cancellation of the de minimis exemption policy for low-value parcels in places like the United States undoubtedly delivered a significant blow to cross-border e-commerce platforms last year. This policy had once been a booster for the rapid expansion of cross-border e-commerce. Platforms relying on the direct mail parcel model, such as TEMU and SHEIN, experienced a golden period of rapid expansion in the U.S.
Data shows that the number of de minimis shipments to the U.S. surged from 139 million in 2015 to 1.4 billion in 2024.
However, since 2024, countries including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, Vietnam, and Brazil have either already abolished or proposed abolishing their low-value parcel exemption policies.
Reliance on direct mail parcels is typically associated with the fully-hosted model. TEMU, seen as the dark horse of cross-border e-commerce, became a hotbed for numerous Chinese跨境 players. The "fully-hosted model" it created swept through the industry like a hurricane, becoming the hottest topic in 2023. Following TEMU's lead, AliExpress, SHEIN, and TikTok Shop quickly launched their own fully-hosted models.
Now facing tariff and compliance challenges, the fully-hosted model, once hailed as a tool for efficiency and scale, is the first to encounter difficulties. It is being relegated to a "marginal position" in the strategies of major platforms. AliExpress, TEMU, SHEIN, and others have shifted their recruitment focus to semi-hosted or overseas-hosted models.
It is reported that after AliExpress率先 launched its semi-hosted model in 2024, which provides services like logistics and warehousing, it soon doubled down on the "Overseas Hosting" model. Under this model, merchants only need to connect their overseas warehouse inventory, while the platform handles marketing, user operations, and local fulfillment. This is also seen as a key service model for localized operational hosting.
As the external environment changes, localization has become crucial in global e-commerce competition. Based on this, AliExpress last year formally listed "Overseas Hosting" as one of the core keys for merchant globalization, with the other being "Brand Globalization."
Currently, AliExpress's Overseas Hosting covers over 30 key markets globally, including Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Starting January 2026, AliExpress upgraded its Overseas Hosting, dividing Europe into three major operational zones to further enhance localized services. Additionally, AliExpress will expand its official logistics warehousing and distribution capabilities in Europe, continuing to strengthen the user experience of "fulfillment certainty."
Reshaping the Industry Landscape To push forward with "localization," besides bolstering operational models where merchants stock goods in local overseas warehouses, these cross-border e-commerce platforms are also increasing efforts to recruit local overseas merchants. This will undoubtedly intensify the impact on overseas e-commerce giants like Amazon.com.
It is understood that last year, AliExpress actively recruited local merchants in markets such as the United States, Germany, and Poland. TEMU's "Local Seller Program" has also been launched in multiple countries including the U.S., Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Japan.
Notably, in November last year, TEMU also intensively signed memoranda of understanding with postal groups in countries like France, Italy, and Austria in Europe. This move is seen as a crucial part of TEMU's efforts to enhance its localization infrastructure.
Analysts from CICC Research point out that localization is a necessity if an e-commerce platform aims to become a top player in a local market. Against this backdrop, leading cross-border e-commerce platforms have begun systematically advancing localization.
Due to the proactive strategic adjustments by cross-border e-commerce platforms and the growth potential of the global e-commerce market, leading platforms have demonstrated growth resilience despite headwinds from tariffs and regulatory policies.
According to CICC Research forecasts, the GMV of Chinese outbound e-commerce is expected to grow 12% year-on-year in 2025, higher than the 11% YoY GMV growth forecast for the domestic Chinese e-commerce market and also leading the approximately 8% YoY GMV growth projected for global e-commerce. The main driving force is expected to come from the four major Chinese outbound platforms like TEMU, which are forecast to maintain a 25% YoY GMV growth rate in 2025, outperforming the broader industry.
TEMU has also demonstrated with actual results that last year's "black swan" events did not halt its global expansion. During PDD Holdings Inc's shareholder meeting at the end of last year, management revealed that TEMU covered in just three years a growth path that took PDD's domestic main site nearly a decade. This implies that TEMU's scale is already approaching that of the domestic main site.
Analysts from First Shanghai Securities also noted that TEMU showed positive growth momentum in the third quarter of 2025. Building on the positive performance in Q2, TEMU's Q3 GMV quarter-on-quarter growth turned positive, revenue entered a healthy growth trajectory, and the pace of loss reduction is expected to accelerate.
The upgrade of AliExpress's brand strategy last year was also a significant turning point in its deep cultivation of "brand globalization." Over the past year, AliExpress has become a new main stage for brand globalization. During the 2025 overseas Singles' Day and Black Friday periods, over 300 brands achieved single-day sales on AliExpress that were more than double their sales on Amazon.com, and the number of brands with full-cycle sales reaching one million dollars increased by 80% year-on-year.
Furthermore, according to Sensor Tower data, during the 2025 Black Friday period, AliExpress's download volume in Europe temporarily surpassed that of Amazon.com.
However, although AliExpress experienced a year of "aggressive expansion," in terms of GMV growth, TikTok Shop among the "Four Dragons" seems to have achieved more impressive results recently.
It has been learned that ByteDance recently released information stating that in 2025, TikTok Shop's GMV approached the $100 billion scale, ranking fifth among overseas mainstream e-commerce platforms, behind only Amazon.com, Walmart, Shopee, and eBay, but with the highest growth rate.
As the global trade landscape evolves, a consensus is forming: cross-border e-commerce must inevitably shift from growth at any cost to growth focused on profitability, and from a simple strategy of "low-price exports" to a "brand-oriented" high-value-added strategy.
In this context, going global is transitioning from the "era of selling goods" to the "era of brands."
Looking ahead, cross-border e-commerce remains in a vast but more complex market. The challenges lie in persistent policy uncertainty, rising compliance costs, and increasing localization investments. The opportunity, however, lies in the fact that global consumers' demand for high cost-performance and diverse supply has not disappeared; rather, their understanding of "cheap" is evolving.
In this sense, 2025 may not be the most bustling year for cross-border e-commerce, but it is likely to be a year that determines the industry's long-term structure. Having passed through a "year of trial," Chinese cross-border e-commerce is moving from a race for speed into a true test of endurance.
