Tesla Stock Forecast: Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025

seekingalpha2021-04-14

Summary TSLA has been a highly rewarding stock with related ETFs appreciating correspondingly, creating a virtuous cycle. However, if the halo starts to unravel, TSLA could suffer and the share price...

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TSYY
·2021-04-15
Solution: buy both tesla and xpeng. Case closed ?
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- Sephy:
  No offense but logically speaking, which international buyer will buy a chinese brand car ?
  2021-04-15
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Alykrunch
·2021-04-14
Is this a good time to buy Tesla/NIO/Plug??
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11thchure
·2021-04-14
?
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Samantha88
·2021-04-14
Good job
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Gretch89
·2021-04-14
???
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虎媽
·2021-04-14
Tell me your opinion about this news...
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KWHChye
·2021-04-14
Competition is good
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FarisAzlan
·2021-04-14
Time to buy
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(TSLA), has proven many naysayers wrong as its valuation soared higher than every traditional car manufacturer and more. In the process, many shareholders are laughing to the bank with the share price rising more than eight times in the past year.\n\nInvestors in funds that hold Tesla stock such as the various ARK ETFs (ARKK)(ARKW)(ARKQ) and numerous other ETFs are also enjoying the ride up. According toETF Database, there are 268 ETFs with exposure to Tesla Inc. Of these, the Simplify Volt Pop Culture Disruption ETF (VCAR) has the largest exposure to Tesla with the EV-maker having a 16.3 percent weighting in its portfolio. The iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF (IYK) follows close behind at 16.1 percent.\nTop 10 ETFs with the highest weighting on Tesla (as of April 5, 2021)\nSource: ETF Database\nThe allure of having Tesla as the top or one of the major holdings of an ETF is irresistible. ETFs like the US Vegan Climate ETF (VEGN), whose name suggests something to do with food or agriculture, have Tesla as the highest weighted holding at 6.1 percent of the portfolio.\nThis brings us to a potential party spoiler. As the share price of Tesla climbs, market players get more enamored with the brand and its story, enticing more investors to get on board. Likewise, the associated ETFs see heightened interest and appreciation. In turn, the fund managers would have to buy more Tesla shares with the inflows. This results in a virtuous cycle.\nUnfortunately, it's not a one-way street. If the halo starts to unravel, TSLA could suffer and the share price begins its decline. The bevy of related funds would experience withdrawals correspondingly and a downward spiral ensues in a race to the bottom. This undesirable scenario could come true if Tesla's autonomous fleet failed to materialize and it has to rely on the sale of EVs for an extended period.\nHow large is the EV market expected to grow by 2025 and what is Tesla's expected market share?\nDon't get me wrong. I am not a Tesla-basher. I have written several bullish articles on Tesla including Shorting Tesla On Elon Musk's Earnings Call 'Tantrum' Would Be A Mistake and Chinese EVs Are Making Tesla Look Cheap.However, to be a responsible writer, it's imperative to share my thoughts on the adverse scenario as well.\nWith government policies and environmentally aware consumers supporting the shift to electric vehicles, industry analysts are projecting strong growth in EV sales at the expense of conventional ones. The share of new car sales of EVs could jump from a low single-digits percentage presently to around 15 percent by 2025. That corresponds to around 20 million new sales of EVs in 2025.\n\nHow much of this pie would belong to Elon Musk's Tesla? According to Mario Herger, a prominent technology analyst based in Silicon Valley,Tesla could be selling as many as 5.1 million vehicles per year by 2025, if we calculate the average growth value over the last 7 years of 59 percent. This represents around one-quarter of the 20 million new sales of EVs in 2025 as estimated by Canalys.\nSource: The Last Driver License Holder\nA projection posted on EV blog CleanTechnica has a slightly higher forecast of 5.6 million sales for Tesla in 2025. That would bump the supposed Tesla market share to 28 percent. Note that this projection should be viewed as a rather generous one considering the Model 2 is expected to form the bulk of the sales at 3 million units, followed by 1 million units each for Model Y and the Cybertruck.\nModel 2 is only a hypothetical future model and recent reports noted the company has been quiet on this entry-level Tesla. The forecast for the sales to start with 200 vehicles in 2022, quadrupling to 800 in 2023, and then doubling in 2024, and a near doubling in 2025 would hinge on the demand truly matching expectations and the production being able to ramp up that quickly. Similarly, Cybertruck has not been released.\nYet, either estimate would only fall near \"a plausible case\" in which ARK Invest deemed to be on the pessimistic side out of 40,000 simulations. That \"Example Bear Case 2025\" estimated that Tesla would sell 5 million cars.\nSource: ARK Invest\nAt the other end, Tesla could see a doubling in sales, selling as many as 10 million cars based on the \"Example Bull Case\". That would bring its share of EV sales to half the global total. This level of sales would mean Tesla increase its 2020 sales by 20 times in five years. Taking half the world's EV market justifies Tesla's rich valuation multiples and outstanding market cap against the other EV players, even neglecting the contribution from its touted potential autonomous ride-hailing business. However, is that sales forecast realistic?\n\nChina is not a winner-take-all market\nA large premise for the substantial rise in EV sales is the big shift in China thanks to policy support. The share of EV sales in China of the total car sales has been higher than other regions and its lead would become more pronounced in the next few years.\n\nIt should be noted that in China, the Tesla brand and the aura of Elon Musk are very strong. Hence, it's not surprising to know that it's the dream of many Chinese to own a Tesla car. Nonetheless, dreams can be very different from reality and car buyers generally end up with other brands either due to affordability issues or features that its rivals provide.\nTesla cars are no doubt experiencing robust sales currently. However, a large driver has been the eagerness of early adopters and the appeal of scarcity. It would be erroneous to assume that Tesla can simply ride the growth in the EV market in the same proportion as it started. The buyers coming in subsequently would comprise those who are attracted by the low price points offered by Tesla competitors or features relevant to their needs such as NIO, Inc.'s (NIO) battery-as-a-service (BaaS) option.\nExpanding on this point, it's worthy to highlight there are several types of electric vehicles. Besides the Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) that Tesla cars are known for, there are also Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) that use an electric motor to assist gas-powered engines. Unlike HEVs which are wholly reliant on gasoline, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) have both a gas tank and a charging port. They also come with a larger battery and electric motor.\nMild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEVs) are projected to become the most popular EV option by far in the coming years. Mild Hybrid cars are like a lite-version of PHEVs - their electric motors are employed to support the engine only during acceleration and cruising and the electric motor cannot power the car on its own. According to estimates from Boston Consulting Group [BCG], the share of MHEVs could even surpass that of diesel-powered cars by 2023 to become the second most popular powertrain type after gasoline-powered ones.\n\nSince Tesla has no stated ambitions to compete in the other EV categories, it follows that it will fight with the other BEV-makers for that 7 percent share of the total global car sales of around 108 million in 2025. That calculates to be around 7.56 million BEV cars, falling right in the middle of the 5-10 million Tesla car sales under the bear and bull cases churned out by ARK Invest.\nIn other words, taking the bull case of 10 million car sales by Tesla in 2025, the company would be responsible for more BEVs than the entire projected BEV market. Taking the bear case of 5 million cars, Tesla would account for around two-thirds of the total BEV sales in the world. This sounds rather improbable, considering the bevy of EV-maker wannabes sprouting up in recent years, with more to come.\nWho are Tesla's largest EV competitors to watch for?\nIt's tempting to shout out the names of the large car manufacturers today (e.g. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)(OTCPK:TOYOF) and Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY)(OTCPK:VLKAF)) and call them the biggest threat to Tesla. Nonetheless, considering how the then-leading mobile phone company Nokia Corporation (NOK)(OTCPK:NOKBF) and near-smartphone maker BlackBerry Limited (BB) failed to impede Apple Inc. (AAPL) from displacing the duo, I am wary to suggest it would be different for the EV industry.\nOn the other hand, Chinese EV-makers like NIO Inc., XPeng Inc. (XPEV) are in a sweet spot. They have the advantage of an attractive home base where the largest demand growth is and an abundance of generous government incentives to spur the take-up of electric vehicles.\nFor instance, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said during an address in March to the National People's Congress that the government will help multiply the number of EV charging stations and battery-swapping facilities. The former will diminish a key benefit of owning a Tesla versus other BEVs - the privilege of access to Tesla Superchargers. The latter would boost the convenience of BaaS, a major selling point of NIO cars.\nA key advantage of Tesla Superchargers is that car batteries get recharged significantly more quickly than a typical charger. For NIO car owners, charging time is not an issue at all since they can drive to a battery-swapping point and get their drained batteries replaced with fully charged ones in minutes.\nOn the technology front, Xpeng Motors announced last month that its Navigation Guide Pilot (NGP) function, which enables navigation-assisted autonomous driving on highways, is superior to Tesla's Navigate on Autopilot [NOA] on several critical metrics.Xpeng revealed that during its 3,000 km navigation-assisted autonomous driving expedition in March, China's longest real highway autonomous driving test on mass-produced vehicles, it achieved the lowest rate of human driver intervention per 100km on record. Under the control of the NGP, the average success rate for lane changing and overtaking was 94.41 percent during the 8-day expedition, surpassing Tesla.\nSource: XPeng\nI suspect that Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities in China may not be as robust as they are in the U.S. where most of the miles were chalked up and the bulk of the autonomous driving \"training\" was done. Thus, the result comparison could have been starker if Tesla's numbers are based on tests on China's roads.\nAnother not-so-secret sauce for Xpeng's autonomous driving strength is its use of Alibaba Group's (BABA) map platform AutoNavi (Gaode map in Chinese). Alibaba is a substantial and early shareholder in Xpeng. AutoNavi's constantly updated high-definition maps enable Xpeng to navigate in adverse weather conditions or places with poor signal such as in tunnels. In contrast, Elon Musk has long eschewed the dependency on maps to avoid the failure of AV when real-world changes have yet to be captured by the map.\nSource: XPeng\nEven if there is genuine demand for electric vehicles, manufacturers need to be able to meet the matching output. As noted earlier, to achieve merely the bear case put out by ARK Invest, Tesla would need to ramp up its production by 20 folds in the next five years.\nWhere else can Tesla achieve this on the scale and speed required other than China? Elon Musk expressed his amazement in 2019 over the breakneck speed Tesla's Shanghai plant was completed and readied itself for commercial production. The substantially lower manufacturing cost in China further seals the case of expansion in the populous country. Tesla estimated that the cost per unit capacity for the Model 3 production line in Shanghai is expected to be 50 percent lower than that in the United States.\nUnfortunately for Tesla, even if the Chinese government is willing to provide it with more land for new factories, the big question is whether the California-based company is willing to sink itself deeper into what President Joseph Biden termed as the greatest political and economic adversary to the U.S.\nWith Beijing having pledged to have the world's second-largest economy become a global leader in new energy vehicles (NEVs), Chinese EV-makers are riding high on official support in various aspects of the business. That includes the building of new plants.\nRecently, Xpeng signed a cooperation agreement with the City of Wuhan to build a new \"Smart EV\" manufacturing base. The new facility will have an annual capacity of 100,000 units with manufacturing and powertrain plants. The development is noteworthy due to the strategic location of Wuhan which is affectionately called the Detroit of China.\nI expect Xpeng to enter into more of such collaborative efforts with dozens of potential cities as it scales up its production capacity. The planned new factory comes less than a year after its first assembly facility went online. Likewise, its peers like NIO, Berkshire Hathaway-backed (BRK.A)(BRK.B) BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF)(OTCPK:BYDDY), and Li Auto Inc. (LI) would do the same as they expand output to meet the ravenous appetite for EVs in the coming years.\nAt the same time, the other allure of Tesla being its autonomous ride-hailing business opportunity could be threatened by alternative offerings. Besides XPeng, Chinese search engine leader Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) has announced venturing into the EV space to showcase its autonomous capabilities as it endeavors to partner with more industry players.\nThe EV market is deemed so lucrative that smartphone and Internet-of-Things appliance-maker Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF) has entered the fray, announcing its intention to produce self-branded electric cars. The sheer number of qualified players cast serious doubts about Tesla's ability to secure the projected ultra-dominant share of the EV sales in 2025.\nInvestor Takeaway\nTesla has been a wonderful investment for shareholders who have bought into the shares prior to the run-up last year. The question is whether the stock has gotten ahead of itself with its valuation arguably rich, especially when compared with the more established carmakers.\nProjections of Tesla's sales figures in 2025 put its market share of the total global EV sales to a mouth-watering level which is not reasonable given the plethora of competitors presently and emerging. The government support for the Chinese EV-makers is further raising the gauntlet.\nTesla could remain an excellent EV-maker and benefit commercially from a fleet of autonomous ride-hailing in the future. However, the stock could stagnant in the near term and offer limited appreciation given a rosy scenario has apparently been priced in.\nA greater-than-expected upside is possible if the rate of EV adoption in the world accelerates, Tesla receives higher regulatory credits for each sale, and its ride-hailing business achieves a better-than-expected take-rate.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":344574351,"gmtCreate":1618420535973,"gmtModify":1704710653624,"author":{"id":"3575718969425602","authorId":"3575718969425602","authorIdStr":"3575718969425602","name":"TSYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7373c6b708e220eaee9bd8fb53b90ba7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575718969425602"},"htmlText":"Solution: buy both tesla and xpeng.&nbsp;Case closed ?","listText":"Solution: buy both tesla and xpeng.&nbsp;Case closed ?","text":"Solution: buy both tesla and xpeng. Case closed ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344574351","repostId":1109031420,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4041789,"gmtCreate":1618470344614,"gmtModify":1680784154421,"authorId":3579782126622830,"author":{"id":3579782126622830,"authorId":3579782126622830,"name":"Sephy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":344574351,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"No offense but logically speaking, which international buyer will buy a chinese brand car ? ","text":"No offense but logically speaking, which international buyer will buy a chinese brand car ? ","html":"No offense but logically speaking, which international buyer will buy a chinese brand car ? "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344627964,"gmtCreate":1618407620159,"gmtModify":1704710336272,"author":{"id":"3577443068440656","authorId":"3577443068440656","authorIdStr":"3577443068440656","name":"Alykrunch","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31f6afa1679347244125537288dce699","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577443068440656"},"htmlText":"Is this a good time to buy Tesla/NIO/Plug??","listText":"Is this a good time to buy Tesla/NIO/Plug??","text":"Is this a good time to buy Tesla/NIO/Plug??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344627964","repostId":1109031420,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344374379,"gmtCreate":1618382407191,"gmtModify":1704709950579,"author":{"id":"3572074959283860","authorId":"3572074959283860","authorIdStr":"3572074959283860","name":"11thchure","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffad8a285c7b14f55a3e492d77ad2cb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572074959283860"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344374379","repostId":1109031420,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344374996,"gmtCreate":1618382381515,"gmtModify":1704709951868,"author":{"id":"3572868860672408","authorId":"3572868860672408","authorIdStr":"3572868860672408","name":"Samantha88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17723d2075b69224c864dd5864a34ecb","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572868860672408"},"htmlText":"Good job&nbsp;","listText":"Good job&nbsp;","text":"Good 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me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344357363","repostId":1109031420,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344356992,"gmtCreate":1618379740316,"gmtModify":1704709920258,"author":{"id":"3559643628960690","authorId":"3559643628960690","authorIdStr":"3559643628960690","name":"KWHChye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff28c38f154930713b0a64f6389191d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559643628960690"},"htmlText":"Competition is good&nbsp;","listText":"Competition is good&nbsp;","text":"Competition is 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