阿里这份财报，其实很有含金量

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阿里这份财报，其实很有含金量

雷锋网2021-08-06

作者 | 胡喆阿里的“低迷”和“失速”，其实并不成立。当前的增速于它而言，已经是大象起舞了。阿里发财报了，这是互联网行业最近经历风波后的第一份财报。尽管财报的不少指标看起来算不上漂亮，但阿里的财报本身，无疑是观察行业发展最好的窗口之一。怎么算账 8月3日，阿里巴巴拿出的是一份利润缩水的财报，在实现营业收入2057.4亿元，同比增长33.8%的同时，其净利润为428.35亿元，同比下滑...

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与自己和解
·2021-08-07
666
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- quantarize:
  666
  2021-08-07
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thomaschai
·2021-08-07
Good
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1
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KennyK71
·2021-08-07
點個贊?
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Imbaliang
·2021-08-07
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
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- Gnehnusee:
  ?
  2021-08-07
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RyanPunggol
·2021-08-06
有錢與前途
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- jk0726:
  ??
  2021-08-07
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franson
·2021-08-06
努力。
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Alexkoay
·2021-08-06
[強]
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joyo1662
·2021-08-06
哈哈哈哈，加油加油
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- joyo1662:
  加油加油
  2021-08-06
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胡喆\n阿里的“低迷”和“失速”，其实并不成立。当前的增速于它而言，已经是大象起舞了。\n阿里发财报了，这是互联网行业最近经历风波后的第一份财报。尽管财报的不少指标看起来算不上漂亮，但阿里的财报本身，无疑是观察行业发展最好的窗口之一。\n怎么算账\n8月3日，阿里巴巴拿出的是一份利润缩水的财报，在实现营业收入2057.4亿元，同比增长33.8%的同时，其净利润为428.35亿元，同比下滑7.76%。\n当然也有人算过一笔账，如果从2057.40亿元的总营收中剔除高鑫零售相关部分，那么1873.06亿元的营收与2019年同期相比，年复合增长率也有约27.66%，而二位数增长对于阿里这个体量的企业来说，并不是一份很糟糕的成绩单。\n本季度，阿里董事会还授权将股份回购计划总额从100亿美元增至 150亿美元，以约36.80亿美元回购了约1810万股美国存托股（约合1.445 亿股普通股），这是阿里史上力度最大的回购。\n甚至有人总结说，这是目前为止中国企业史上力度最大的回购。\n不管是反映管理层的信心也好，还是为了救市也罢，这次回购都是要拿出真金白银的，而从效果看来，这笔钱没有白花。\n阿里财报难读，难处在于阿里业务复杂，没有什么参照系。\n拼多多、美团这些企业，都可能在某个单点指标上超过阿里，但是因为在综合性上相差悬殊，所以可比性并不是很强，最多是在单一赛道里可以比一比。\n如果非要比，只能把阿里和腾讯比。虽然腾讯还没有公布这季度的财报，但腾讯从2019年q1到2021年q1的年复合增长率的平均数是25.82%，和我们前面算过的阿里的27.66%相当接近，所以总体来说，说阿里“全面低迷”、“失速”之类的，是并不成立的，这个增速对于阿里而言，已经是“大象起舞”了。\n\n总体来说，多点发力已经取得了不错的成绩，从阿里的总盘子来看，由淘系、新零售、菜鸟、本地生活、跨境批发和零售等共同构成的“核心商业”收入占比87%，云计算、DME等也有所贡献，商业仍然是阿里的基本盘，基本盘但多引擎发展的布局，已经初见成效。\n用户增长\n随着中国电商产业的发展成熟，活跃消费者的规模增长必然放缓。但阿里仍然交出了一张不错的答卷——截至2021年6月底，阿里巴巴生态全球年度活跃消费者达到11.8亿，较上一季度增加4500万。\n这11.8亿消费者里中，有9.12亿来自中国市场，既包括中国零售平台的线上消费者，也包括生活服务、数字媒体和娱乐等平台上购买商品和服务的消费者。而 Lazada、速卖通、Trendyol及Daraz服务了2.65 亿海外消费者。\n\n面对拼多多的咄咄逼人，阿里祭出了淘特针锋相对。此前很多人不看好淘特，认为淘宝无法复制拼多多的低价基因，而如果复制了则意味着淘特无利可图。但事实证明，淘特的供给逻辑确实有别于拼多多，起劲儿和后劲儿更猛。淘特的年度活跃消费者增长至超过1.9亿，单从规模来说已达到拼多多的23%。考虑到淘特成立才一年多，这个起势的速度不可谓不快。\n而在用户增长速度上说，淘特单季度新增的活跃消费者达到4000万，已经超过拼多多的3540万，这是淘宝在单一赛道增速上首次压制狂飙突进的拼多多。\n2019年，阿里急需一款能打的产品在下沉市场打开局面，淘特果断抓住了这个机会。淘特和1688同属于B系事业群，阿里最大限度地发挥了它整合B端和C端业务的能力，让“工厂直供”的模式在满足下沉市场消费需求的同时，能够保障质量和用户体验。2019年，淘特业务增长迅猛，年活跃买家数到当年底就上涨到1亿，最新数据则是超过1.9亿，两年两次200%的成长。\n另一个大家关注较少的其实是闲鱼业务，这其实也是一个亿级模块。闲鱼主打二手消费，提供各种闲置、回收、翻新、租赁和复古产品。根据财报披露的数据，今年二季度末，闲鱼的移动月活用户也超过了1亿，成为阿里电商非常活跃的一个新兴板块。\n闲鱼的历史可以追溯到2013年下半年，\n产品原型方案叫作“趣换”。然而在产品模型推演完成后，并没有考虑好这个产品模型应该承载什么业务。逍遥子提出，阿里的电商业务太多了，“趣换”可以试试社区模式。\n于是经过3个月，团队终于做出了一个简陋的二手交易平台，取名为“闲鱼”，2014年6月，闲鱼正式上线运行。\n2016年3月，《闲鱼社区公约》出台，作为买卖双方的行为规范。接着，闲鱼小法庭成立，由高信用的用户担任评审员，每天处理上千起纠纷。这些都是处理论坛纠纷的手段。8月，闲鱼推出了“闲鱼号”，除了需要实名认证，闲鱼号还以个人主页的形式呈现，用户之间可以相互关注，类似贴吧的个人主页……可以说把社区玩到了极致。\n另外值得一提的还有闲鱼与淘宝的互动。此前淘宝直播可以同步到闲鱼直播，每一场直播可以同时获得在微博、淘宝、闲鱼 3 个平台的流量。淘宝、天猫将在业务中引入闲置资源循环利用的场景，闲鱼全面为淘宝、天猫用户提供以旧换新服务；支付宝和芝麻信用将为闲鱼提供更深入的信用和支付金融服务，闲鱼将开发支付宝小程序，为支付宝用户提供闲置资源循环服务，并在租房租赁领域展开业务整合。\n\n阿里用内部资源孵化的项目不计其数，但闲鱼抓住了每次被浇灌的机会，更重要的是，在左林右狸频道看来，闲鱼是真正尊重社区逻辑而发展起来的业务，而不是名为社区实为电商的伪社区，这和逍遥子的初衷吻合，而如果给闲鱼过早背上电商KPI，可能闲鱼已经挂掉了。\n现在，闲鱼是一个年轻人集聚的平台，95后用户占比超过35%。拥有“年轻人”和“二手交易”两张王牌，闲鱼又入局潮流市场。前不久，闲鱼上线“闲鱼潮社”板块，除整合二手潮品售卖信息之外，还提供了潮鞋回收、专业鉴定、洗护保养等服务，以规范二手交易。此外，闲鱼还启动了“潮有引力”计划，邀请潮流行业相关人士、买手、爱好者入驻。这些动作都提高了阿里电商的用户黏性，强化了阿里对于年轻用户的吸引力。甚至有人说，对于年轻人来说，闲鱼就是下一个B站，那些B站Up主晒出的生活方式，很多都和在闲鱼上淘来的东西有关。\n除了淘特和闲鱼是两个突出亮点外，值得期待的是阿里和腾讯体系的互相开放，有人或许理解为这是监管倒逼的结果。但从事实上看，两大体系的核心业务，也就是腾讯的社交和阿里的电商，都已做到极致，都已经把自己业务能服务的地方的用户吸引充分了，在这种情况下的开放虽然肯定有很多彼此提防的地方，但毕竟意味着中国两大十亿级用户体系的互联网经济体之间的破冰，实在是值得期待。\n承压\n某种意义上来说，淘特业务和闲鱼业务都属于阿里的防守型业务，前者是为了防御拼多多在下沉市场的犀利进攻，避免这个有大量增量空间的业务被拼多多完全占据，后者是挖掘阿里的流量潜力并保持对年轻人的黏性，等于为未来储备增量。\n而截然不同的，本地生活和社区团购两个战场，是阿里要打出去的进攻型业务。\n本地生活服务方面，阿里本季度收入同比增长23%至87.57亿元，饿了么在本季度内，订单量同比增长超过50%。\n但是，尽管保持了50%的增幅，饿了么与美团的差距还是依然存在。。以上个财季的数据来看，美团总营收达370亿元，其中餐饮外卖营收为205.8亿元，相当于2-3个饿了么的体量，而且，除疫情影响的季度外，美团外卖的同比增幅都超过35%，由于其基数大，所以实际增量也远大于饿了么。\n因此，今年7月初，阿里巴巴宣布组织架构升级，将基于地理位置服务的三大业务，即高德、本地生活和飞猪，组成生活服务板块，被外界认为是阿里对抗美团的主战场。\n阿里在本地生活方面的问题，我们已经总结许多。我们的结论是，核心问题不是阿里没有足够的资源，对于这样的业务，升级为生活服务板块重装出击，足见阿里的决心。\n而社区电商虽然对于阿里是一个补充，但社区电商模式的高下沉能力和与高成本、高举高打的盒马的相互补充，才是阿里在整个泛生鲜市场的完整布局，所以社区电商业务，阿里虽然动得不算早，但战略优先级不低。\n今年3月1日，阿里巴巴正式成立MMC事业群，内部人士戏称其为“买买菜”，主要聚焦社区电商业务，整合了零售通的社区团购业务和盒马集市业务，再由整个MBC板块统筹B类事业群和盒马事业群，同时还兼顾阿里集团涉农业务。这与社区电商的本质中有一大部分是农产品上行，而拼多多的核心优势就是农产品上行，都不无关系。所以mmc和拼多多还有一个农业战场，拼多多有一定的优势，MMC如何破局尚待观察。\n话说阿里这样的企业，最大的特点就是底蕴深，虽然近年来在不少赛道，如文娱、本地生活都铩羽而归，但依然能腾出手来开拓新赛道，还依然能在上述战线排兵布阵，摆出俞永福、戴珊乃至杨磊这样的后备干部，的确说明了“old 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