美债走势诡异原因曝光：是日本人的操作骗了全世界

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美债走势诡异原因曝光：是日本人的操作骗了全世界

华尔街见闻2021-08-03

有着全球最安全资产之称的美债也不再安全了？据彭博，全球最大的养老基金——日本政府退休养老金(GPIF)，在截至今年3月的上一财年内，将其所持有的美国政府债券和票据比例创纪录地进行了下调，由此前的47%削减至35%。与此同时，GPIF增加了对欧洲主权债券的持有。一年多年来，GPIF将其投资组合进行了重新调配，减少了对日本政府债券的依赖，并将重点转向回报率更高的股票和海外债券。尽管GPIF没有...

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EricYow
·2021-08-03
good
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EricYow
·2021-08-03
nice
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jensongan
·2021-08-03
你有什麼看法？
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iameveeee
·2021-08-03
Whut
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world","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"有着全球最安全资产之称的美债也不再安全了？\n据彭博，全球最大的养老基金——日本政府退休养老金(GPIF)，在截至今年3月的上一财年内，将其所持有的美国政府债券和票据比例创纪录地进行了下调，由此前的47%削减至35%。与此同时，GPIF增加了对欧洲主权债券的持有。\n\n一年多年来，GPIF将其投资组合进行了重新调配，减少了对日本政府债券的依赖，并将重点转向回报率更高的股票和海外债券。\n尽管GPIF没有公开他调仓的基本操作逻辑，但鉴于其持有高达1.7万亿美元的资产，这一变动无疑会对市场造成剧烈影响。\n\n此外，在截至今年3月的12个月中，GPIF对法国、意大利、英国和德国的债券配置均至少增加了1.7%。经调整汇率和债券价格波动后。预估这些债券的购买总额为5.72 万亿日元（520 亿美元）。\n\n就目前来看，GPIF降低美债权重的投资策略是成功的，其上一财年的海外债券投资回报率为7.1%，高于5.4%的富时世界国债指数。\n美国10年期国债自去年3月疫情爆发以来，经历了长期的横盘，然后在今年3月升至1.7%上方，其目前收益率位于1.2%下方。\n\n三井住友信托银行分析师Ayako Sera表示，目前美债的收益率不足以抵消汇率波动风险，美国国债的吸引力可能会进一步下降。\n美国财政部数据显示，日本投资者分别在今年4月日开始的本财年和上一财年分别抛售了240亿和350亿美元的美债。\n摩根士丹利曾表示需要避免将当前美债较低的收益率强行进行合理化解释。\n3月时，多数投资者以为美债收益率的上升是由美国正强劲的经济复苏推动的，市场甚至一度普遍认为该美债的收益率将很快超过2%。\n但这只是投资者们一厢情愿的想法。\n那在这期间，美债收益率大幅上涨的真正原因是什么？\n摩根士丹利认为：\n\n 美债收益率上涨，\n 真正的主要原因是GPIF对美债的大量抛售。而GPIF之所以抛售美债，主要基于对财年结束的获利了解考虑。在那之后，\n 由于美国的实际经济数据跟不上预期数据，美债收益率开始走低。\n\n也就是说，日本人的操作成功欺骗了全世界，美债上涨被市场解读为美国经济正在强劲复苏；美债收下跌被市场解读为是量化宽松导致的。\n就对美债收益率目前的看法，摩根士丹利表示：\n\n 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