Copper: Overnight, copper prices showed a narrow-range upward trend, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. Macro-wise, the U.S. November CPI rose 2.7% YoY, below the expected 3.1%, while core CPI increased 2.6% YoY, also lower than the previous 3%, signaling easing inflationary pressures. This reinforced market expectations of a dovish Fed and further rate cuts in 2026. Former President Trump’s remarks about appointing a "super-dovish" Fed chair raised concerns over policy independence. The ECB kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, while markets await the BOJ’s decision. LME copper inventories fell by 2,650 tons to 164,275 tons; COMEX stocks rose by 2,339 tons to 416,914 tons; SHFE stocks dropped 227 tons to 44,650 tons; BC copper inventories declined 5,127 tons to 1,053 tons. Near-term caution is advised due to macro uncertainties, but copper’s recent resilience suggests cautious optimism.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: LME nickel rose 1.84% to $14,630/ton, while SHFE nickel gained 1.56% to 115,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories fell 60 tons to 253,938 tons; SHFE warrants dropped 748 tons to 37,513 tons. The LME 0-3M spread remained negative, while import premiums held at 400 yuan/ton. Indonesia’s APNI projected 2026 nickel ore output at 250M tons, down sharply from 379M tons in 2025, with potential HPM formula revisions to price by-products like cobalt separately. Nickel ore benchmarks dipped slightly, while premiums stabilized. Stainless steel spot demand improved, with social inventories down 1.55% WoW to 1.0636M tons. In the EV sector, falling nickel prices and year-end pressures dragged down precursor prices, with ternary precursor output expected to drop MoM in December. Domestic nickel stocks rose again. News-driven price gains warrant caution pending actual implementation.
Alumina, Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: Alumina weakened overnight, with AO2601 down 1.05% to 2,545 yuan/ton; open interest fell by 4,503 lots to 166K. SHFE aluminum edged up 0.18% to 22,030 yuan/ton, with OI up 3,445 lots to 299K. Aluminum alloy AD2602 rose 0.05% to 21,130 yuan/ton. SMM alumina prices dipped to 2,778 yuan/ton, while aluminum spot discounts widened to 140 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 rebounded to 21,650 yuan/ton, with a 70-yuan discount to Wuxi. Aluminum rod and bar processing fees held steady. Year-end alumina contract talks saw firm production despite losses. Domestic bauxite supply remains tight, while Australian ore prices softened slightly. Aluminum prices remain elevated on expectations of tighter supply and seasonal logistics disruptions in Xinjiang.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon rose 1.59% to 8,645 yuan/ton, with OI down 3,030 lots to 207.8K. Spot prices held at 9,593 yuan/ton, while #421 silicon fell to 8,850 yuan/ton. Polysilicon dropped 2.6% to 59,300 yuan/ton, with OI down 13,608 lots to 139.9K. N-type polysilicon prices edged up to 52,400 yuan/ton. Southwest production cuts met targets but failed to offset weak demand. Trading focused on hedging and backlog orders. Polysilicon’s structural surplus and low warehouse receipts drove price divergence. Speculative positions declined as some longs exited, with no new warrants registered. Investors should monitor warrant trends amid mixed market logic.
Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate futures (2605) fell 0.79% to 106,160 yuan/ton. Battery-grade carbonate rose 500 yuan to 97,550 yuan/ton; industrial-grade gained 500 yuan to 94,950 yuan/ton. Hydroxide (coarse) rose 500 yuan to 85,980 yuan/ton. Weekly output rose 47 tons to 22,045 tons, led by spodumene (+60 tons) and salt lake (+20 tons), while lepidolite output fell 50 tons. Ternary cathode output is expected to drop 7% MoM in December, with LFP down 1% to 410K tons. Inventories fell 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons, led by downstream destocking (-1,253 tons). Seasonal softness and potential Jiangxi mine restarts may slow inventory drawdowns, but strong demand expectations could support prices. Monitor production resumptions and demand validation.
