To The Moon

The week of August 17 to August 23 is packed with major financial events. All times listed are in Beijing time (CST).

Here is a breakdown of the key focus areas for the week of August 17:

The earnings superweek is headlined by Chinese ADRs, with Alibaba leading the charge, followed by Xiaomi-W, Kuaishou, and Baidu. On the A-share side, Gigadevice and Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd. will provide a check on the memory cycle and AI optical module sector. Hengrui Medicine and AMEC will conclude the mid-year reports for innovative drugs and semiconductor equipment leaders, while iFlytek will verify the commercialization of AI applications. This week marks the concentrated release of results for three main themes: the AI compute chain, innovative drugs, and import substitution. In the US, Target and Walmart will also report earnings.

On the macro policy front, the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes will be the focal point. The July meeting saw three dissenting votes against maintaining rates, the largest divergence since 2016. The hawkish or dovish details in the minutes will directly re-price the US dollar and global assets. China's July economic data, released on the same day, will test the strength of the economic recovery. South Korea's high August export growth will impact the global semiconductor trade landscape.

In the technology sector, this week is the most catalyst-dense for the robotics chain. The World Robot Conference, the imminent listing of Yushu Technology Co.,Ltd., and the Humanoid Robot Games mean the density of events for the robotics chain hits a yearly peak. DeepSeek's API peak/off-peak pricing takes effect, coinciding with the Seoul AI Summit and the Hot Chips Summit. Furthermore, the Hang Seng Index semi-annual review results are due, with CICC predicting that Zhipu and MINIMAX could be included in the index.

On the geopolitical and trade front, the US 50% tariff on Canadian goods takes effect, and a new version of the trade agreement draft is advancing. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has previewed "unprecedented" measures against Iran, while Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, plans to visit Israel to discuss Gaza. These three parallel tracks of tariffs, sanctions, and Middle East negotiations are expected to increase volatility in energy and safe-haven assets.

Earnings Reports

The A-share mid-year report season enters a dense week. Gigadevice and Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd. will test the memory cycle and AI optical module chain's prosperity. Hengrui Medicine and AMEC are the mid-year reports for innovative drug and semiconductor equipment leaders. iFlytek will verify the commercialization of AI applications. Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, Zijin Mining, and Dongshan Precision round out the week, with the former benefiting from AI fibre demand, the latter driven by copper and gold prices, and Dongshan Precision verifying the AI PCB/hardware chain.

On the Hong Kong side, Xiaomi-W (conference call on August 18 at 19:30) and Baidu (conference call on August 18 at 20:00) report on the same day. For Xiaomi-W, focus will be on smartphone premiumisation, auto business margins, and the pace of AI investment. For Baidu, the focus is on the commercialisation of the ERNIE Bot large model and autonomous driving progress. Kuaishou-W (conference call on August 19 at 19:00) will be scrutinised for e-commerce GMV growth and AI video business. Alibaba (conference call on August 20 at 20:00) is the top Chinese ADR focus this week, with the market watching for cloud revenue growth and the continuity of AI investment guidance. Pop Mart, Geely Auto, and Weibo will also report results.

US earnings are concentrated in the retail chain. Target (before market open on August 19) will be watched for discount retail health, while Walmart (before market open on August 20) serves as a bellwether for consumer spending.

Economic Indicators

China's July economic data (August 17, 10:00): Industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment will be released on the same day. The data, combined with policy measures, will verify the strength of the economic recovery. CICC expects retail sales to continue a modest recovery. If the decline in real estate investment narrows, sentiment in the property chain and cyclical sectors may improve marginally. South Korea's August export data for the first 20 days (August 21, 08:00): The previous value of +52.3% was a historical high. According to the Korea Customs Service, the high July export growth was mainly driven by memory price increases and AI chip exports. This reading will test the continuity of the global semiconductor cycle and AI capital expenditure, serving as a leading indicator for the Asian tech chain.

Japan's July national CPI year-on-year (August 21, 07:30): Expected at +2.0%, prior at +1.6%. If inflation continues to rise, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September will increase, impacting the yen and global interest rate correlations.

Financial Events

US Treasury Secretary Bessent previews "unprecedented" measures against Iran (all week). According to CCTV International, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on the evening of August 13 local time that the US will implement "unprecedented" measures against Iran. In an interview, Bessent said, "This will combine unprecedented economic isolation measures with a sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, thereby cutting off all access to and from Iranian ports. Please stay tuned for more announcements next week."

Report: Trump's son-in-law may visit Israel for talks on Gaza peace agreement. Citing sources familiar with the matter, media reports indicate that US President Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, plans to visit Israel, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries next week to consult with multiple mediators on the Gaza issue, aiming to advance the 20-point Gaza plan proposed by the Trump administration at the end of 2025.

Yushu Technology Co.,Ltd. is expected to list on the stock market in late August (18-24). Yushu Technology Co.,Ltd. has completed its IPO subscription on the STAR Market (科创板) at an issue price of 150.80 yuan per share. The market broadly predicts it will officially begin trading on the A-share market between August 18 and August 24.

The World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing from August 19 to 23. The 2026 World Robot Conference will take place in Beijing from August 19 to 23, with the theme "Human-Machine Symbiosis, Production and Demand Integration." It is expected that Yushu Technology Co.,Ltd.'s G1/R1, UBTECH's Walker S3, SIASUN's humanoid robot, GALBOT, and Tiangong 2.0 will be displayed together, focusing on mass production readiness, industrial sorting, sport combat, and autonomous battery swapping.

The Second World Humanoid Robot Games will be held from August 22 to 26. The Second World Humanoid Robot Games will be held from August 22 to 26 at the National Speed Skating Oval. The five-day event will feature new competitions such as robot tug-of-war, pitch-pot, and weightlifting.

The Hang Seng Index semi-annual review is due, with CICC predicting Zhipu and MINIMAX could be included. Hang Seng Indexes Company announced that it will announce the results of the second quarter 2026 Hang Seng Index series review after the market close on Friday, August 21, 2026. According to the announcement, constituent changes for the first and second groups of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on Monday, September 7, 2026, and Monday, September 14, 2026, respectively. Based on the quantitative adjustment methodology of the Hang Seng Index and historical rebalancing logic, CICC calculates that eight stocks, including Zijin Gold International, Zhipu, and MINIMAX-W, meet the inclusion criteria and are at the top of the potential candidate list.

Federal Reserve July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The July meeting saw three dissenting votes against maintaining rates, the largest divergence since 2016. CME FedWatch indicates the market prices the probability of a rate hike by year-end at over 50%. If the minutes reveal hawkish details, the US dollar, Treasuries, and global risk assets will be re-priced.

The US announces a 50% tariff on some Canadian products. According to CCTV, on July 20, the White House announced that the US will impose an additional 50% ad valorem tariff on certain Canadian products in response to "discriminatory measures taken by Canada against the US in the trade of automobiles and automotive parts." The new tariffs will take effect at 00:01 AM Eastern Time on August 19 and will be imposed on top of existing relevant tariffs, taxes, and other charges.

DeepSeek API peak/off-peak pricing takes effect. According to an official announcement, as of midnight on August 17, the V4-Pro peak output price is 27 yuan per million tokens, and the off-peak price is 13.5 yuan. Additionally, ByteDance's Seed-OSS-36B is open-sourced, and Alibaba's Qwen3.8-27B release is on countdown. Manus will resume operations as an independent company, and some user data will be deleted from 08:00 on August 23, 2026, to August 24, 2026 (SGT).

The Seoul AI Summit 2026 will be held from August 19 to 21. The 2026 Seoul AI Summit & Expo will take place from August 19 to 21. The summit will bring together global tech leaders from Google (Google DeepMind / Google Cloud), Microsoft (Microsoft Research), NVIDIA, LG AI Research, and Hyundai Motor. Other industry summits, including the top chip academic conference Hot Chips 2026 and the 2026 Green Computing Power (AI) Conference, will also be held next week.

Zhongji Innolight: Board meeting to be held on August 21. Zhongji Innolight's board of directors meeting will be held on August 21, 2026, to consider and approve the company's and its subsidiaries' interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2026, and their release, as well as to consider recommending the payment of an interim dividend, if any.

Reddit will be included in the S&P 500 index before the market opens on August 18. Reddit will be added to the S&P 500 index before the opening of trading on August 18.

Ke Rui Si's STAR Market IPO set for review on August 17. The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Listing Committee has scheduled a meeting on August 17, 2026, to review the IPO application of Guangdong Ke Rui Si CNC Technology Co., Ltd.

People's Bank of China to conduct overnight reverse repo operations from August 17 to 19. To better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct overnight reverse repo operations on August 14, and from August 17 to 19, using a fixed interest rate and quantity-based bidding, with a daily maximum operation amount of 600 billion yuan.