Palantir: Worth $10, But I'll Buy At $15

seekingalpha2022-01-12

SummaryPalantir's share price has fallen over 30% in the last 6 months, but fundamentals look stronger than ever.I see improved profitability in the future and a service that competitors will struggle...

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CharWF
·2022-06-01
[Facepalm]
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MrTig3r
·2022-01-14
My biggest issue with PLTR is the insane share dilution. 1) How do we justify that? 2) At what rate is it going to continue? 3) Can PLTR continue to attract the best talent without share dilution?Please share your comments to let me know how you feel about the 3 qns above?
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Svkartik
·2022-01-13
PLTR is a very high risk gamble. I hold still but my exposure is very small. I will not average down but just wait on the sidelines and see how the next few quarters goMoney can be deployed more safely and with greater profitability elsewhere with so many choices
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小虎一飞冲天
·2022-01-13
Like pls.
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Wroy
·2022-01-13
like pls
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2
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Sunny_Bee
·2022-01-13
Many big institutions are quieting buying large volume of PLTR in the past one, two weeks. What are you waiting for?
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3
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Jess261
·2022-01-13
Okay
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time to eat
·2022-01-13
Just buy
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Bodoh
·2022-01-13
So low?!
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2
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MBE
·2022-01-13
I will only add at valuation price or below.
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superpopo
·2022-01-13
Sure or not??
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夜裡精靈
·2022-01-13
Alright trust u
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Megaverse
·2022-01-13
👌🏼 yea
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JayNayHayDay
·2022-01-13
Good
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RichyRick
·2022-01-13
Good information
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WaiSiong81
·2022-01-13
👍
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KSeow
·2022-01-13
👍
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MHh
·2022-01-13
$10?![Surprised] i will buy too at $10 unless there are serious problems with the company
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Jazim
·2022-01-13
Okay
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Blading23
·2022-01-13
Read
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There's still plenty of room for the company to surprise investors.Thesis SummaryPalantir’s(NYSE:PLTR)share price has fallen nearly 30% in the last six months amid a broader tech selloff. Bears have come out of the cave, with some going as far as declaring that the company is worth as little as $5 share.Granted, the company has its problems, but it is still a pioneering company in a growing sector. Unlike the naysayers, I do believe that Palantir has a moat and I see evidence that it could achieve higher profitability as it scales.What is Palantir’s “fair value”? Being conservative, I could go as low as $10/share, but the market won’t take it that low. At $15, this is a screaming buy due to its long-term potential. Growth in the private sector will be the definitive trend to watch for in the next decade.Palantir does have a moat (for now)One of the biggest areas of debate surrounding Palantir is the existence or lack of a “moat” around its business. When it comes to technology like AI, it can be hard for investors to understand just how “unique” a certain technology is.Palantir offers Foundry for enterprises and Gotham for governments, which is an AI data analytics tool. Used in the right way and by the right people, it can be used to seamlessly sift through data and find patterns or trends that could potentially do anything from stopping a terrorist attack to optimizing supply chains.Is this software unique? There are a lot of other companies in the lucrative space of data analytics, but few that have the capabilities of Palantir. Evidence of this, of course, is the large presence the company has achieved in the public sector. However, what is also misunderstood by many is that Palantir has amassed some of the best talent in the industry.It is this combination of talent, which comes at the price of stock-based compensation, and a top of line software/AI, which give Palantir its moat.Economies of scale are happeningThe other main issue that people have with Palantir, is profitability. The company is losing cash every year and funding its operations through stock dilution. However, what people fail to see is that Palantir is funding growth and expansion. If the company wanted to, I believe it could indeed turn a profit as soon as next year. After all, the company has a levered FCF margin of around 35%.But profitability isn’t what the company wants, as it is trying to grow revenues and expand. Having said that, for those that believe profitability is a pipedream, I found the most encouraging evidence of economies of scale in the latest earnings call presentation.During the Q&A section, a very interesting point was made regarding the different modules that the company has been able to create for Foundry. In short, Palantir has been able to create specialized versions of Foundry which can be used for specific situations/industries. In other words, the company has been able to standardize its work to a degree. The data problems that one company faces, aren’t unique and from what I gather, Palantir can now deploy previously created modules to solve similar problems while decreasing the workload and deployment time.How much is Palantir worth now and in the future?With all of the above said, Palantir doesn’t seem to me like bad company. But is the valuation stretched? That depends on what multiples the market assigns, the actual growth rates, and the level of dilution we see moving forward.In a previous article, I forecasted the revenue growth of Palantir based on current trends and estimates, and also looked at a possible trajectory for the overall share growth based on financing needs and balance sheet structure.Palantir GrowthPalantir SharesThe projections for 2021 are on the higher side, but the growth fits the overall narrative of the company of going from a 40% growth rate to a stabilized 30% CAGR over the next decade. Also, bear in mind Palantir has typically beaten its revenue forecasts.With this revenue and share count, we can easily calculate a target share price, all we need is to assign a P/S multiple.In 2021, Palantir has traded at a P/S of around 20 and as high as 30. While I agree that this is on the higher end of the spectrum, it is much more reasonable than assigning a P/S of 5. I would argue the best way to find a reasonable ratio, is to find a comparable company, and I’d say Splunk Inc(NASDAQ:SPLK)is a good start. Splunk, like Palantir, is in the data business, it has similar margins and even a presence in the public sector, making it a close competitor to Palantir.Splunk currently has a P/S of around 7.6, but it has also grown revenues at only 10% in the last year, far below Palantir’s 43% growth rate. With this in mind, I could easily justify Palantir having a P/S of 15. Even if you believe both Palantir and Splunk are due for further multiple contractions I think a P/S of 10 for Palantir is as low as the market will go. With that said, I’ll establish a price range using a P/S of 10-15 and using my forecasts for 2022 and 2025.Therefore, my price target for 2022 based on P/S would be $11.5-$15.2. By 2025, at the same P/S, the shares would be worth between $24.6-$37. Bear in mind this implies a significant multiple contraction compared to what we have seen in 2021.Other considerationsI think $10 is a floor that Palantir won’t break. I’d be happy to scoop up those shares at that price, and even at $15. Palantir is well-positioned for long-term growth, and it could pleasantly surprise investors, especially if it can make more inroads in the private sector. For now, indeed, unprofitable companies like Palantir are not fashionable, due to the idea that the Fed will be raising rates “soon”. This is yet to be seen.As I’ve mentioned before, inflation will struggle to remain high while money velocity is trending lower. Could we have already seen the highest levels of inflation? Without direct fiscal stimulus (literally sending people money) inflation won’t persist, and without inflation low rates, cheap money and high growth will remain good investments.TakeawayCertainly, anything could happen, and it’s important to have a diversified portfolio of companies, but at these prices, Palantir offers limited downside while holding the potential to surprise investors in the next few months and even years.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9027246004,"gmtCreate":1654044915908,"gmtModify":1676535384064,"author":{"id":"3582633338719689","authorId":"3582633338719689","name":"CharWF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480b91cd8f3c49bc36c742b17b0ae054","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"[Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027246004","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9005068107,"gmtCreate":1642121746448,"gmtModify":1676533683508,"author":{"id":"3584333947690568","authorId":"3584333947690568","name":"MrTig3r","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99cfe4b0a492018c40761a39a193aa8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"My biggest issue with PLTR is the insane share dilution.&nbsp;1)&nbsp;How do we justify that?&nbsp;2) At what rate is it going to continue?&nbsp;3) Can PLTR continue to attract the best talent without share dilution?Please share your comments to let me know how you feel about the 3 qns above?","listText":"My biggest issue with PLTR is the insane share dilution.&nbsp;1)&nbsp;How do we justify that?&nbsp;2) At what rate is it going to continue?&nbsp;3) Can PLTR continue to attract the best talent without share dilution?Please share your comments to let me know how you feel about the 3 qns above?","text":"My biggest issue with PLTR is the insane share dilution. 1) How do we justify that? 2) At what rate is it going to continue? 3) Can PLTR continue to attract the best talent without share dilution?Please share your comments to let me know how you feel about the 3 qns above?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005068107","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002521475,"gmtCreate":1642044668711,"gmtModify":1676533675602,"author":{"id":"3565260704760850","authorId":"3565260704760850","name":"Svkartik","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"PLTR is a very high risk gamble. I hold still but my exposure is very small. I will not average down but just wait on the sidelines and see how the next few quarters goMoney can be deployed more safely and with greater profitability elsewhere with so many choices","listText":"PLTR is a very high risk gamble. I hold still but my exposure is very small. I will not average down but just wait on the sidelines and see how the next few quarters goMoney can be deployed more safely and with greater profitability elsewhere with so many choices","text":"PLTR is a very high risk gamble. I hold still but my exposure is very small. I will not average down but just wait on the sidelines and see how the next few quarters goMoney can be deployed more safely and with greater profitability elsewhere with so many choices","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002521475","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002561845,"gmtCreate":1642042082376,"gmtModify":1676533675366,"author":{"id":"3582098623642517","authorId":"3582098623642517","name":"小虎一飞冲天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a55a61195830e019abf5d3cc69681b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pls.","listText":"Like pls.","text":"Like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002561845","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002514753,"gmtCreate":1642039183510,"gmtModify":1676533674978,"author":{"id":"3583235514597911","authorId":"3583235514597911","name":"Wroy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b08fc03f5ff4c54763ac341cfc008167","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002514753","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002598616,"gmtCreate":1642035307352,"gmtModify":1676533674356,"author":{"id":"4094200026092470","authorId":"4094200026092470","name":"Sunny_Bee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a82fcc3056cf5e54f42c722e19a7c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Many big institutions are quieting buying large volume of&nbsp;PLTR in the past one, two weeks. What are you waiting for?","listText":"Many big institutions are quieting buying large volume of&nbsp;PLTR in the past one, two weeks. What are you waiting for?","text":"Many big institutions are quieting buying large volume of PLTR in the past one, two weeks. What are you waiting for?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002598616","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002591813,"gmtCreate":1642035232312,"gmtModify":1676533674315,"author":{"id":"3586490638953193","authorId":"3586490638953193","name":"Jess261","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002591813","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002505503,"gmtCreate":1642034619309,"gmtModify":1676533674180,"author":{"id":"3583412008066274","authorId":"3583412008066274","name":"time to eat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d6a537cecde2d1daeefa1dd8ff6f99","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Just buy","listText":"Just buy","text":"Just buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002505503","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002503219,"gmtCreate":1642034106980,"gmtModify":1676533674067,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"So low?!","listText":"So low?!","text":"So low?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002503219","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002509691,"gmtCreate":1642034009793,"gmtModify":1676533674033,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I will only&nbsp;add at valuation price or below.","listText":"I will only&nbsp;add at valuation price or below.","text":"I will only add at valuation price or below.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002509691","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002277756,"gmtCreate":1642033833094,"gmtModify":1676533673990,"author":{"id":"3584161011431512","authorId":"3584161011431512","name":"superpopo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Sure or not??","listText":"Sure or not??","text":"Sure or not??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002277756","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002244132,"gmtCreate":1642033033869,"gmtModify":1676533673650,"author":{"id":"3573696373126010","authorId":"3573696373126010","name":"夜裡精靈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6266748095c04f49b888884069d798","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Alright trust u","listText":"Alright trust u","text":"Alright trust u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002244132","repostId":1114732808,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9002256621,"gmtCreate":1642032038863,"gmtModify":1676533673350,"author":{"id":"3576278607547570","authorId":"3576278607547570","name":"Megaverse","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/0bc7f9365fb6866c5d290efdfb79d160","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👌🏼 yea&nbsp;","listText":"👌🏼 yea&nbsp;","text":"👌🏼 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