美股9月“魔咒”再度应验，抛售何时将接近终点？

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美股9月“魔咒”再度应验，抛售何时将接近终点？

第一财经2022-10-02

恐慌指数VIX站稳30关口，资金博弈超跌反弹。美股在新一轮抛售中结束了三季度，9月“魔咒”再度上演，三大股指跌向近两年低位。随着政策预期依然激进，投资者担心未来的加息将进一步拖累美国经济，同时溢出效应恐波及全球，引发货币和债券市场的波动风险。然而另一方面，衍生品市场交易热度升温，大量资金博弈股指超跌反弹，即将公布的非农就业报告或成为未来一周市场震荡的导火索。美联储强化鹰派立场在上月美联储议息会议上...

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Chongwei168
·2022-10-03
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幸福满天飞
·2022-10-03
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江海豚
·2022-10-02
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xiaochoochoo
·2022-10-02
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Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，美联储的态度显示，他们决心推行限制性货币政策，直到通胀尽快回到2.0%的目标。预计利率在明年初触及本轮周期高位后将继续保持稳定，直到增长放缓和通胀降低为2024年的降息留出空间。最新公布的数据也为美联储的行动提供了支持，首先通胀压力依然高涨，作为最关注的通胀指标之一，美国8月个人消费支出物价指数PCE涨幅超过市场预期。其次，劳动力市场表现健康，最新初请失业金人数降至19.3万，创今年4月以来新低，这与美联储希望看到的正好相反，火热的就业环境可能成为推高通胀的潜在风险。10月7日美国将公布9月非农就业报告，一旦就业数据超预期或进一步加剧外界对于政策过度收紧的担忧。施瓦茨告诉记者，消费者仍在支撑经济。尽管价格高企且不断上涨，但个人消费小幅增长，这得益于强劲的就业市场和不断增长的收入。美联储显然不会对最新收入和支出报告中的价格指标感到满意，因此他们有强烈的动机继续加息，直到通胀趋势被打破。政策预期也继续推高美债收益率，与利率关联密切的2年期美债收益率站上4.2%，基准10年期美债收益率则突破3.8%关口。芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch显示，11月加息75基点和12月加息50基点的概率均略超过50%。施瓦茨认为，在通胀压力持续居高不下的情况下，预计美联储将在年底前将利率再提高125个基点。他认为，美国下半年经济增长将出现温和反弹，但持续高通胀、更积极的美联储货币政策紧缩、全球经济活动放缓的负面溢出效应以及企业盈利疲软，这些因素将推动美国经济在2023年上半年进入温和衰退。与此同时，金融市场动荡加剧，也给增长前景带来了下行风险。超跌反弹临近但风险犹存受通胀高烧不退的影响，8月以来美联储对加息的激进立场将美股进一步推入熊市，三大股指已经连续第三个季度下跌。个股表现持续低迷。据财经数据供应商FactSet的统计，标普500指数中有96家公司的股价触及52周新低，B.Riley Wealth首席市场策略师霍根（Art Hogan）表示：“如果要止跌，我们需要看到的是通胀显著降低，但现在还没有出现。因此这不会改变一直推动股市下跌的局面，也不会改变投资者情绪的反应。”除了对货币政策的担忧以外，多份业绩预警也引发了广泛关注。近一周来，耐克和嘉年华均在财报中提及了与通胀相关的利润压力。美国最大内存芯片制造商美光科技上季度营收同比下降约20%至66.4亿美元，为2020年疫情以来首次下降，并发布了疲弱的业绩指引。与此同时，大型科技股的经营也受到了经济压力的影响。苹果因需求放缓放弃了今年增产iPhone 14的计划，公司现在预计今年下半年的iPhone销量保持在9000万部左右，与2021年的销量大致相同。脸书母公司 Meta Platform则宣布Meta冻结招聘，并将进行人员和团队重组，并削减成本和转移优先事项。股指波动环境下，CBOE恐慌指数VIX上周收于31.62，连续第二周处于30关口上方。衍生品交易再度活跃，根据嘉信理财提供的数据，9月以来美股期权日均交易量达到了4330万份，逼近去年11月创下的历史峰值。嘉信理财交易和衍生品董事总经理弗雷德里克（Randy Frederick）认为，过去一周，恐慌指数VIX看涨期权未平仓量环比增加13.3%，看跌期权未平仓量增长25%，变动幅度是正常水平的5倍至10倍，显示出随着波动性高位运行，资金开始博弈超跌反弹。标普500指数10月表现统计（资料来源：道琼斯市场）历史数据显示，10月美股有望迎来企稳回升，特别是在经历了大幅杀跌后的情况下。道琼斯市场数据统计发现，自标普指数创立以来，9月下跌了7%或以上的情况共11次，接下来的10月指数平均上涨0.53%，中位数上涨1.81%。不过潜在的反弹预期并不意味着风险已经远去。美银证券首席投资策略师哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）表示，包括美国股票、存托凭证和房地产投资信托等的纽约证交所综合指数已经跌破了多个关键技术支撑位，这其中包括200周移动平均线、2018年和2020年高点等。目前的亏损局面可能会迫使基金出售更多资产以筹集现金，从而陷入“螺旋抛售”。哈特内特预计标普500指数年内可能将先考验3333点，在那之后美股会迎来短暂反弹，但真正低点要到明年第一季度才会触及，届时美国经济衰退和信贷冲击将导致收益率、美元和美联储的鹰派态度自顶峰出现拐点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9912969912,"gmtCreate":1664749170436,"gmtModify":1676537499856,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912969912","repostId":1115419515,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912915034,"gmtCreate":1664747246429,"gmtModify":1676537499455,"author":{"id":"4099482010818000","authorId":"4099482010818000","name":"幸福满天飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd42d6a7d68497b6805872385c9f897e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912915034","repostId":1115419515,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912059461,"gmtCreate":1664714109853,"gmtModify":1676537497457,"author":{"id":"3563848605397531","authorId":"3563848605397531","name":"江海豚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05f3c7f2a482f79f8dd7dcf6ac429e97","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912059461","repostId":1115419515,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912028229,"gmtCreate":1664711735061,"gmtModify":1676537497248,"author":{"id":"4095548256553960","authorId":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"C","listText":"C","text":"C","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912028229","repostId":1115419515,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":92,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}