瑞幸跌倒，喜茶喝饱？

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瑞幸跌倒，喜茶喝饱？

深潜atom 2021-08-01

虽然中概股在遭遇各种过山车，但现实的投资逻辑却在短期内很难改弦易张。对标国际巨头，打造中国的麦当劳、中国的星巴克的新消费，不仅如火如荼，而且愈加火爆。这种投资的叙事，一点也不新奇，而且是前赴后继的。只是每一次这种脉冲达到一个新高度，大家审视和接受的态度就会显得很新奇。但到底谁是中国的星巴克，至少在这个问题上，瑞幸已经栽跟头了。在他身后，是各种马克龙色的新品牌，喜茶、奈雪的茶、茶颜悦色，还有很多在...

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看山不是海
·2021-08-03
啥都不懂寫這麼多[笑哭]
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Clarewu
·2021-08-02
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1
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- ming_5868:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-02
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蚊香策士
·2021-08-02
一山還有一山高！圍城思想
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新手上路2
·2021-08-01
like and comment？
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KCChen
·2021-08-01
瑞幸還有很遠的路
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- Ekskdk:
  是的
  2021-08-01
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- 小米拉:
  期待一下最新财报吧，看到星巴克增速放缓，不出意外被瑞幸取走部分
  2021-08-01
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CYau
·2021-08-01
Like and comment?
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- CYau:
  6666
  2021-08-01
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景阳冈
·2021-08-01
?
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monkeyking
·2021-08-01
瑞幸怎麼能和星巴克相比？不在一個層面
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- 紫心旋:
  说的也是
  2021-08-01
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Savage_Never
·2021-08-01
做任務嘿嘿嘿求贊求評論蟹蟹
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JTS
·2021-08-01
這種**文章，怎麼好意思發表的
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jackyhuei
·2021-08-01
不錯
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kiore
·2021-08-01
有點意思。
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- Buddy_tree:
  [强]
  2021-08-01
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</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然中概股在遭遇各种过山车，但现实的投资逻辑却在短期内很难改弦易张。对标国际巨头，打造中国的麦当劳、中国的星巴克的新消费，不仅如火如荼，而且愈加火爆。这种投资的叙事，一点也不新奇，而且是前赴后继的。只是每一次这种脉冲达到一个新高度，大家审视和接受的态度就会显得很新奇。\n但到底谁是中国的星巴克，至少在这个问题上，瑞幸已经栽跟头了。在他身后，是各种马克龙色的新品牌，喜茶、奈雪的茶、茶颜悦色，还有很多在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1334691350845442\">Source 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tea?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c88df6c9e25e1df9cb4ea2fe8afd2f9","symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":0.9},"content_text":"虽然中概股在遭遇各种过山车，但现实的投资逻辑却在短期内很难改弦易张。对标国际巨头，打造中国的麦当劳、中国的星巴克的新消费，不仅如火如荼，而且愈加火爆。这种投资的叙事，一点也不新奇，而且是前赴后继的。只是每一次这种脉冲达到一个新高度，大家审视和接受的态度就会显得很新奇。\n但到底谁是中国的星巴克，至少在这个问题上，瑞幸已经栽跟头了。在他身后，是各种马克龙色的新品牌，喜茶、奈雪的茶、茶颜悦色，还有很多在一线城市很火亟待破圈的咖啡品牌，比如火爆上海的那些精品咖啡。\n不久前，资本圈更是传出都没见面喜茶老板就领投这家Seesaw咖啡上亿元的火爆新闻。根据虎嗅的报道，有投资人对此给出解释：“咖啡是消费品领域唯一可以再诞生茅台体量公司的赛道。”\n01新消费火爆的核心是真有人消费\n新消费的火爆背后，有两个核心的支撑点：第一是产品本身的成本极低，第二是要把原本价格极低的产品卖出高价，就必须做足面子，就离不开营销驱动。在铺天盖地的营销攻势下，花几十块钱就能追赶一次时髦和潮流，还能在朋友圈社交装逼，这种消费满足感，对于新消费的核心消费群体来说是物超所值的。\n新消费火爆的隐性原因则在于，餐饮行业已经普遍完成了价格升级。不管是之前被热议的月薪不到八千不配吃西贝，还是大家普遍感知到的价格铺张，这都已经是餐饮行业的现实。在和深潜atom的交流中，牛女士说像南京大排档这种原来定位是大排档的升级版的餐厅，现在也要差不多人均两百，在外面吃饭的成本确实比以前增加了很多。\n来自外卖和电商平台的数据也能说明这一点。螺狮粉的走红，就被解读为因为性价比高，所以消费的人数增加了。是一种为了控制生活成本的妥协。\n那么在这种情况下，无论是和府捞面，还是喜茶这些新消费，都承担了通过做足面子，来为消费“降级”挽尊的功能。店面装修和食物品质不差，依旧在很好的商业综合体中，整个的消费体验并没有“降级”，而且实际的花销并不大。这就是很多人的误解，你觉得年轻人喜欢糖水是一种肤浅，但你根本不懂这种既能满足发朋友圈需求，又能获得超额满足的精明和实惠。\n所以，投资人说的什么咖啡的成瘾性等分析要素，其实都是一种说法而已。像星巴克和麦当劳这种品牌，在国内市场面对的最大问题是品牌的老化。1990年，麦当劳在深圳开设中国区的第一家餐厅。1992年，麦当劳进入北京市场开设了第一家餐厅。 而星巴克则是于1999年1月，在北京中国国际贸易中心开设中国内地第一家门店。\n这些伴随着全球化进入和扩张的品牌，有的已经30岁了。随着本土消费品牌的成长和崛起，这些品牌已经没有了最初的高端大气上档次的品牌内涵。所以，与其说，是要成为中国的星巴克和麦当劳，不如说是要填补这些品牌老化而形成的业态真空。\n新的一代消费者，生长于物质极其丰富的环境下，短视频和社交媒体对于他们是最重要的媒介。他们不再像前一代消费者执着于咖啡豆来自哪里，口感的分级依据是什么，换言之，他们越来越不Care“知识点”类型的营销套路，更在乎的是自己的消费是不是年轻人的主流。\n02沉舟侧畔千帆过，病树前头万木春\n瑞幸的可怜和可悲之处在于，起了个大早，却赶了个晚集。瑞幸几乎跑通了新消费的各种打法和链路，却因为数据造假被打翻在地，而后陷入了一种沉默螺旋。现在的瑞幸，能让人感知到一种开始重视产品升级的努力，但却在失信阴影下显得过于沉闷。\n前面我们已经分析了，新消费火爆的核心原因在于原来引领新消费的品牌进入了品牌老化期，至少对新生代用户而言已经没有新鲜感了。更隐性的问题在于餐饮行业的价格结构悖论——原有的中高端餐饮在悄无声息的涨价后，削弱了新生代对它们的消费热情，但实际的消费需求需要新的定位合理的产品来填补。这两者合力的结果，就是新消费的火爆的底层逻辑。\n在这个逻辑的烛照下，瑞幸跌不跌倒，新消费都会火爆，因为瑞幸形成不了绝对的头部优势，也并不和喜茶、奈雪的茶这些品牌形成直接的竞争。只是瑞幸的定位，是和星巴克直接抢夺办公室白领，而新生代的品牌更在乎的收割Z世代。\n但背负着劣迹的瑞幸，在这场新消费的盛宴中显得格外尴尬，既不能讲述自己的先发优势，也不能大张旗鼓的和后起之秀们在自己擅长的营销领域竞技——更重要的是资源都被之前的虚火败光了。\n营销是驱动新消费的核心动力，是巩固用户满足感和价值感的重要环节。瑞幸在这个环节的收敛，其实是得不偿失的。众声喧哗的场域，比赛的一贯是谁的声量最大，这是遇强则强的马太效应的极致游戏。\n相比喜茶、奈雪的茶这些后起之秀，瑞幸最应该检讨的是自己的价格策略和市场策略。既要收割白领，又试图用极低的价格在短期内迅速破坏原来的生态和价格体系，然后再重建整个系统。但这些新品牌却告诉瑞幸，完全不用这么周折，只要你照顾好用户的面子和里子，他们就会趋之若鹜。那不，就连老北京卤煮，这种平常到不能再普通的食物，为了面子，也被层层叠叠的说的讲究的不能再将就，就更不要提兰州人跟你不厌其烦的纠正兰州只有牛肉面没有拉面这回事了。当然，这都属于旧时代的“新消费”、“新品牌”，他们怎么在Z世代焕发新生，这是另一个话题了。\n瑞幸跌不跌倒，新消费都会火爆。只是没了瑞幸的新消费，让人免不了感慨来得早不如来得巧。但瑞幸再这么耗下去，翻盘的机会不大，不如趁早重新打造新品牌，尽早完成剥离，重新来过。\n至于喜茶，能持续多久的明星效应，还是要看用户对于喜茶品牌的耐心有多长久。在主线业务风正一帆悬的时刻，对于新的咖啡品牌投资的果断和力度，恰恰说明喜茶的焦虑，这种焦虑至少来自两个方面，在资金资源充足的前提下，高举高打再造一个新品牌的难度不大；其次，对于自身品牌的保险周期，喜茶应该也有自己的隐忧，毕竟紧跟在身后的那几家似乎增长数据也都不错。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":804314097,"gmtCreate":1627922216619,"gmtModify":1703498019325,"author":{"id":"3521232045926312","authorId":"3521232045926312","name":"看山不是海","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3521232045926312","authorIdStr":"3521232045926312"},"htmlText":"啥都不懂寫這麼多[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"啥都不懂寫這麼多[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"啥都不懂寫這麼多[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804314097","repostId":1116878944,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":805398291,"gmtCreate":1627859505613,"gmtModify":1703496532983,"author":{"id":"3583580150454584","authorId":"3583580150454584","name":"Clarewu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5d8edef1f9f751b684f4d0938da889","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583580150454584","authorIdStr":"3583580150454584"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805398291","repostId":1116878944,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5397002,"gmtCreate":1627859999144,"gmtModify":1663231794926,"authorId":3532417483771819,"author":{"id":3532417483771819,"idStr":"3532417483771819","authorId":3532417483771819,"name":"ming_5868","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d89076d8bfa575b8d66e7aae75a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805398291,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805920561,"gmtCreate":1627853696253,"gmtModify":1703496456121,"author":{"id":"3556406286176182","authorId":"3556406286176182","name":"蚊香策士","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556406286176182","authorIdStr":"3556406286176182"},"htmlText":"一山還有一山高！圍城思想","listText":"一山還有一山高！圍城思想","text":"一山還有一山高！圍城思想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential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and comment？","listText":"like and comment？","text":"like and 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