(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden warned Thursday that the probability of a Ukraine invasion is “very high,” while Russia told the U.S. in its official response to security proposals from Washington that it has no plans to invade.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry handed over an 11-page document Thursday with its views, the Tass news service reported. The two sides in the conflict in eastern Ukraine -- government forces and Moscow-backed separatists -- accused each other of breaking cease-fire rules.
European Union leaders discussed the Russia tensions in Brussels, ahead of a meeting of Group of Seven foreign ministers in Munich on Saturday. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will speak by phone later Thursday. Officials in Moscow have dismissed U.S. warnings of a possible invasion of Ukraine as “hysteria” and propaganda.
Key Developments
Ukraine, Russia-Backed Separatists Allege Cease-Fire Violations
Diplomatic Whirl Shows West Unconvinced by Russian Peacemaking
Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine
Diplomats, IT Firms Flock to Habsburg Jewel on Kyiv War Worries
All times CET:
Russia Expels U.S. Embassy’s Deputy Head (3:50 p.m.)
Russia expelled the U.S. deputy chief of mission in Moscow, Bart Gorman, in what a State Department spokesman called an unprovoked move. The U.S. is considering its response, the spokesman said.
Moscow and Washington have been feuding over the number of diplomats at each other’s embassies as their relations deteriorate. The U.S. embassy in Moscow suspended most consular services after Russia banned it from employing locals, while in November Russia’s ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, said more than 50 diplomats and their families would be forced to leave the U.S. by mid-2022.
Biden Accuses Russia of ‘False-Flag’ Operation (3:25 p.m.)
Biden said the U.S. believes Russia is “engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in” to Ukraine.
In remarks to reporters as he left the White House for a speech in Cleveland, Biden offered no further details or evidence. But he spoke after U.S. officials said the Kremlin had reinforced a buildup around Ukraine by as many as 7,000 troops. Biden added that he had no plans to call Putin.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Moscow appears to be “moving toward an imminent invasion” of Ukraine.
Borrell Says EU Nations Agree on Potential Sanctions Package (2:48 p.m)
EU leaders have unanimously agreed to approve a package of potential sanctions if the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said after a leaders’ meeting on Ukraine. “We have a very tough package prepared,” he said, adding that he would “immediately” call a meeting to adopt them officially if needed. “Energy will be one of the most important issues in this package,” he added.
The EU has avoided sharing details of the sanctions package with its members to avoid arguments over the package and leaders weren’t scheduled to discuss them in detail Thursday.
Austin Says Russia Still Boosting Blood Supplies (2:10 p.m.)
Western allies are seeing Russian troops inch closer to Ukraine’s border, with more combat and support aircraft, and they’re also stocking up on blood supplies, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters, following a meeting of NATO’s defense ministers in Brussels.
“You don’t do these things for no reason. You certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home,” Austin said, adding the U.S. and its allies would continue to remain vigilant for any attack. Western officials have raised doubts about Russia’s claims it is pulling back troops from Ukraine borders, while Moscow denies any intention to invade.
Russia Says Troops to Leave Belarus After Drills (1:25 p.m.)
Russian troops will leave Belarus for their bases after the end of training exercises, according to Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov.
The first soldiers involved in domestic drills have already returned to their permanent stations, he said. The Biden administration and U.S. allies have disputed Russian claims of a troop pullback from Ukraine’s border and said more soldiers have been arriving to the area. They didn’t provide details or evidence to support that allegation.
Lavrov Says U.S. to Get Reply Today (11:45 a.m.)
Russia will send its response to security proposals made by the U.S. later Thursday, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Russia welcomes the willingness of the U.S. and its allies to discuss missile limits and confidence-building measures, he told reporters in Moscow. But it’s continuing to press “key” demands that NATO halt eastward expansion and refrain from deploying offensive weapons close to its borders, Lavrov said.
Russia has called for legally binding guarantees that NATO won’t expand more to the east and that the alliance will pull back its military infrastructure from central and eastern European nations that joined it since 1997. The U.S. has dismissed the demands as “non-starters.”
Ukraine Says Shells Hit Kindergarten (11:15 a.m.)
Ukraine’s military said two civilians suffered concussions Thursday morning from what it said was a separatist shell hitting a kindergarten in Stanytsya Luhanska, a government-controlled town in the east near the line of contact between the two sides. The shelling also caused a power cut for part of the town, the military said.
Separately, Ukrainian railway company Ukrzaliznytsia said its depot in the same area was hit by artillery fired by separatists, with no casualties reported. There was no immediate response from separatist groups. Russian state media earlier quoted the Moscow-backed separatists as saying Ukrainian forces violated the cease-fire in five places overnight, including using mortars.
Tit-for-tat claims have been common after a shaky cease-fire in eastern Ukraine was set up in the aftermath of the 2014 conflict. Interfax quoted Putin aide Dmitry Peskov as saying the situation in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine was getting more tense.
EU Leaders Won’t Address Sanctions Details (10:50 a.m.)
EU leaders holding an emergency summit Thursday won’t discuss a draft sanctions package in detail, and will instead focus on diplomatic efforts, according to an EU official who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters.
The aim is to avoid leaders picking and choosing proposed sanctions if Russia attacks Ukraine, the official said, amid divisions between member states on the costs involved, especially in the energy sector. The U.S. and NATO allies are trying to agree on a package of sanctions that will hurt Russia while shielding them as far as possible from any impact.
There will not be any written conclusions after the Brussels summit, with leaders expected to reaffirm their solidarity with Ukraine, that any military aggression would have a high price for Russia, and that diplomatic channels should be kept open.
Putin, Lukashenko to Discuss Joint Troop Actions (10:10 a.m.)
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he would discuss further joint military actions with Putin when the two meet on Friday, Belta news service reported.
Lukashenko said Belarus would request that Russia establish a training facility for Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and that there is no need for Russian bases in his country, Belta reported.
The largest joint Russia-Belarus military drills in years are currently underway and scheduled to end on Sunday. The exercises are being watched closely by the U.S. and Europe amid the Russian troop buildup.
U.K. Backs U.S. Assessment on Russian Deployment (9:30 a.m.)
U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace backed a U.S. assessment that Russia has added military personnel to the area near Ukraine.
“I think we have seen the opposite of some of the statements, we’ve seen an increase of troops over the last 48 hours, up to 7,000, we’ve seen a bridge constructed from Belarus into Ukraine or near Ukraine,” Wallace told reporters on the second day of a summit of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. He provided no evidence to support his claim.
Putin Already ‘Achieved a Lot’: Kremlin Adviser (8:45 a.m.)
Putin has “already achieved quite a lot” in the stand-off over Ukraine, according to Andrey Kortunov, the head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a Kremlin-founded foreign policy think tank.
Moscow will likely carry out a major military withdrawal from the border with Ukraine by the end of February that will ease tensions, Kortunov told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.
Still, while Putin is likely to secure certain security concessions, he’ll continue to push for guarantees blocking NATO membership for Ukraine, according to Kortunov. “It’s clear that Vladimir Putin wants to keep pressure on the West and on Kyiv to get Western attention,” he said.
Russia Denies U.S. Troops Allegation (8:38 a.m.)
Russia denied it had moved 7,000 more troops close to the Ukrainian border in recent days.
“The statement about 7,000 is just as much a fake as the ones about an attack on Feb. 15-16,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said by text message, referring to earlier reports citing U.S. officials as saying Russia might invade Ukraine this week.
Separatists Claim Ukraine Violated Cease-Fire: RIA (5:55 a.m.)
Russian-backed separatists in Luhansk claim Ukrainian forces violated the cease-fire in five places overnight, including using mortars. The report didn’t include any mention of casualties and couldn’t immediately be confirmed. Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news agency cited a representative of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic for the allegation. There was no immediate comment from the OSCE, while Ukraine said separatists twice used heavy weapons in violation of the Minsk agreement.
Treasuries and the yen rallied on haven bids as traders point to concern over the report. Yields on U.S. 10-year bonds slid as much as 8 basis points to 1.96% before paring to trade at 1.98%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts fell.
Still, based on the OSCE reports, firing across the contact line has been a practically daily occurrence in the seven years since the cease-fire was reached.
G-20 Meeting Expresses Concern About Russia-Ukraine Tensions (5:41 a.m.)
Indonesian President Joko Widodo warned any conflict over Ukraine would threaten broader security and disrupt the world’s economic recovery from the pandemic. He spoke at a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers in Jakarta.
The G-20 consists of the EU and 19 countries with the biggest industrialized and emerging economies. The U.S., which last week released a strategy for the Indo-Pacific region as it seeks to counter China’s growing influence, is concerned Beijing will try to take advantage of the West’s preoccupation with the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.