To The Moon

According to Wind data, during the period 2026.09.21-2026.09.24, the 6 A-share indices we track drifted lower: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.60%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.37%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.48%, the CSI 300 fell 1.51%, the STAR Composite Index fell 1.51%, and the Wind All A fell 1.21%. The largest weekly amplitude was 5.44% for the ChiNext Index.

The A-share indices moved lower in choppy trading during 2026.09.21-2026.09.24, mainly for the following reasons: first, after the Federal Reserve raised rates in September, precious metals-related sectors weakened, dragging down the performance of non-ferrous metals-related areas; second, domestic August macroeconomic data were released one after another, and aside from export data, which remained strong, the year-on-year growth rate of investment continued to decline, and total retail sales of consumer goods were also relatively weak, resulting in a relatively feeble rebound in macroeconomic data.

Second-tier industries: precious metals and industrial metals lead declines on the back of the US rate hike

According to Wind data, among the 31 Shenwan first-tier industries, decliners outnumbered gainers last week. The sectors with the largest weekly gains were real estate and coal, which rose 2.28% and 2.10%, respectively; the sectors with the largest declines were non-ferrous metals and communications, which fell 4.16% and 3.05%, respectively. By comparison, technology-related areas weakened again, with the previously strong communications sector instead leading the declines, while the previously persistently sluggish real estate sector rebounded; however, because the cumulative growth rate of completed real estate development investment within fixed asset investment remains in a declining state, the rebound in the real estate sector is not expected to be highly sustainable.

According to Wind data, among the 124 Shenwan second-tier industries (excluding forestry), last week's top gainers were real estate services and commercial vehicles, with weekly gains of 10.20% and 4.30%, respectively. Since the start of 2026, the top cumulative gainers have been glass and fiberglass, and components, with cumulative gains of 81.59% and 71.01%, respectively. The top weekly decliners were precious metals and industrial metals, with weekly declines of 8.77% and 4.13%, respectively. Since the start of 2026, the top cumulative decliners have been aviation airports and aerospace equipment II, which fell 35.12% and 34.88%, respectively.

Judging from the weekly performance of Shenwan second-tier industries, the top gainers, real estate services and commercial vehicles, belong to sectors that had previously undergone deep adjustments, while precious metals and industrial metals led the declines, mainly due to the impact of the US rate hike.

According to Wind data, among the 259 Shenwan third-tier industries (excluding 16 industries without data), last week's top gainers were commercial trucks and property management, with weekly gains of 6.98% and 6.12%, respectively. Since the start of 2026, the top cumulative gainers have been communication cables and accessories, and fiberglass manufacturing, with cumulative gains of 123.70% and 112.56%, respectively. The top weekly decliners were gold and fruit and vegetable processing, with declines of 8.84% and 7.47%, respectively. Since the start of 2026, the top decliners have been air transportation and comprehensive passenger vehicles, with declines of 37.63% and 37.45%, respectively. Judging from the weekly performance of Shenwan third-tier industries, the conclusions are consistent with those for second-tier industries.

Investment recommendations

From a long-term perspective, 2026 is the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," and the July Politburo meeting continued to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy, providing important support for the steady operation of the domestic economy in 2026 and for the A-share market to maintain a "slow bull" trend in the second half of the year. From a short-term perspective, the market overall showed a state of sideways consolidation in September. On the one hand, after the US rate hike in September, the real yield on US Treasuries rose, putting pressure on the precious metals sector; on the other hand, the technology sector was disturbed by tightening overseas liquidity and is currently generally in the process of bottoming out through choppy trading. At the allocation level, it is recommended to continue focusing in the short term on relatively stable dividend-related areas, while continuously tracking the AI track, which maintains high prosperity in terms of fundamentals, and waiting for sufficient adjustment and internal differentiation before selectively positioning.

Risk warnings

Internationally: from a long-cycle perspective, China-US competition will continue; regarding geopolitical conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts still pose relatively large uncertainty to the global impact. Domestically: China-US conflicts in the trade field have temporarily eased, but there is a risk that they may be interrupted by other factors; investment in China's real estate sector has further declined, continuing to drag down the growth rate of fixed asset investment; China's macro leverage ratio has exceeded 300% for 5 consecutive quarters, constraining the room for continued short-term policy easing.