增长迅猛、市场规模增大，AMD却还陷在“低估值陷阱”中？

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增长迅猛、市场规模增大，AMD却还陷在“低估值陷阱”中？

华尔街大事件2022-08-13

摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）是高性能半导体芯片的领先供应商。该公司在过去几年中取得了巨大的增长，在截至 2022 年 6 月的季度，业绩继续大放异彩。尽管如此，在2021 年 11 月...

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Jesscy
·2022-08-14
Good points
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老八公
·2022-08-13
OK
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hangyuliang
·2022-08-13
[微笑]
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Linda2240
·2022-08-13
[微笑]
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yuliang559
·2022-08-13
[微笑]
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是龙不是虫
·2022-08-13
k
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Mingzu
·2022-08-13
[微笑]
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liuxiangwei
·2022-08-13
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提供的AMD数据01、商业模式AMD 在其四个主要业务领域拥有 1350 亿美元的潜在市场：数据中心 - $50B TAM个人电脑 - $40B TAM嵌入式 - $29B TAM游戏 - $16B TAMAMD TAM（2022 年投资者报告）由于超大规模云、超级计算、5G、自动驾驶汽车、模拟（元界）甚至物联网（物联网）等技术不断发展，预计这一市场机会将会扩大。技术趋势（2022 年投资者报告）AMD 在其四个主要细分市场中的三个细分市场（包括数据中心、PC 和嵌入式）中都是强大的类别领导者。NVIDIA ( NVDA ) 与 AMD 作为游戏 GPU 的领导者以及强大的数据中心产品相抗衡。两家公司此前计划合并，这将创建一个势不可挡的芯片公司，但因“监管挑战”而停止。AMD 的数据中心服务器处理器是同类产品中最好的。它的 AMD EPYC是“世界上性能最高的服务器处理器”。这提供了比高性能计算 (HPC)、云和企业工作负载中的竞争对手更高的性能。它的芯片已经部署在 AWS、Microsoft Azure 和 Google Cloud 等三大云提供商的基础设施中。此外，AMD 的芯片可以在腾讯云和阿里云等中国云领先设施中找到。在最近一个季度，微软 Azure 部署了 AMD Instinct MI200 加速器进行大规模人工智能 ( AI ) 训练，这是对公司领先技术的又一巨大认可。AMD 数据中心产品（2022 年投资者报告）AMD 的产品也广泛部署在思科、戴尔、惠普企业 ( HPE )、华硕、联想等企业中。AMD 驱动的 Frontier 超级计算机最近突破了 exaflop 的障碍并获得了行业认可。管理层已将成为“新数据中心领导者”作为战略重点，他们的目标是通过利用一流的技术、持续创新和执行一致的路线图来实现这一目标。在游戏领域，AMD 的 Zen 2 芯片用于 PlayStation 5 和 Xbox Series X/S。对于客户端 PC，AMD 的 Ryzen 处理器在价值和功耗方面领先于英特尔，并在其他领域提供非常接近的性能。AMD 产品（2022 年投资者演示文稿）与英特尔相比，AMD 提供更高效消耗的主要原因是其更小的 7nm（纳米）芯片。英特尔在努力执行最新的 7nm 芯片设计后已经落后。与此同时，AMD 已经发布了更小的 5nm 芯片，这将是这种尺寸的“世界首创”，预计将于 2022 年秋季上市。AMD Zen 5nm（2022 年投资者报告）02、不断增长的金融AMD 宣布了 2022 年第二季度的强劲收益。总收入为 66 亿美元，同比增长 70%。AMD 收入（收益 AMD）这一收入增长由强劲的数据中心收入推动，同比快速增长 83% 至 14.86 亿美元，营业利润率高达 32%。这是其 EPYC（霄龙）数据中心处理器销售强劲的结果。由于移动处理器销售强劲，客户收入猛增 25% 至 21.52 亿美元。博彩收入也增长了 32% 至 17 亿美元。这是由半定制产品销售的增长推动的，但图形收入确实略有下降。细分市场增长（AMD Q2 22 收益）嵌入式计算收入加速至 12.57 亿美元。这增长了令人瞠目结舌的 2,228%，但这一增长主要是由最近完成的收购带来的收入所推动的。AMD以全股票交易方式收购了Xilinx，该交易于 2020 年宣布，但最终于 2022 年初完成。Xilinx 是航空航天和军事应用中常用的 FPGA（现场可编程门阵列）的发明者。AMD 的毛利率为 46%，同比下降 2%。营业收入为 5.26 亿美元，占收入的 8%。同比下降 37%，主要是由于与 Xilinx 收购相关的无形资产摊销所致。每股收益也受到同一问题的影响，下降了 0.27 美元，而去年同期为 0.58 美元。好消息是，与收购相关的收入下降似乎更多是资产负债表的调整，而不是“真实美元”的下降。所以，我不认为这是一个向前发展的主要问题。非公认会计原则摊薄后每股收益实际上从一年前的 0.63 美元增至 1.05 美元。每股收益（AMD Q2 财务）AMD 拥有稳健的资产负债表，拥有 59.9 亿美元的现金和短期投资。除了约 28 亿美元的总债务外，由于 9.06 亿美元的强劲自由现金流（同比增长 43%），这是可以管理的。AMD 资产负债表（第二季度收益）03、不温不火的指导对于 2022 年第三季度，AMD 管理层预测收入为 67 亿美元，与之前提到的 70% 相比，增长率略低于 55%。全年收入预计为 263 亿美元（+/- 3 亿美元），同比增长约 60%。这些都是了不起的数字，然而，AMD 的首席执行官 Su 预测 PC 领域的增长将放缓。“我们对个人电脑业务采取了更为保守的看法，所以在一个季度之前，我们会认为个人电脑业务会下滑，让我们称之为高个位数，”高级估值模型为了对 AMD 进行估值，我将最新的财务数据插入了我的高级估值模型，该模型使用贴现现金流估值法。我保守地预测明年的收入将增长 48%，因为该公司的收入将从更大的基数增长。此外，我预测未来 2 到 5 年收入增长 28%。这一估值是由数据中心领域的预期实力继续推动的，以及强劲的数字化转型顺风。AMD 股票估值 1（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）我预测该公司的营业利润率将在未来 7 年稳步增长至约 18%，这主要得益于利润率较高的云领域的强劲增长。这些利润数字包括公司的研发费用，我已将其资本化以提高准确性。AMD 股票估值 2（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）鉴于这些数字，我得到每股 114 美元的公允价值。该股目前的交易价格为每股 98 美元，因此被低估了约 15%。作为一个额外的数据点，AMD 的市盈率 (P/E) ( FWD ) = 22.86，比其 5 年平均水平低 54%。AMD 的市销率 = 6.6，比 Nvidia 便宜，PS = 16。然而，众所周知，它比英特尔 ( INTC ) 更贵，英特尔 (INTC) 的市销率 = 2，因为增长放缓和执行问题。YCharts 提供的AMD PS 比率数据04、风险及结语高通胀环境正在挤压企业的投入成本。Meta ( META ) 和许多其他科技公司已经宣布了放缓招聘的计划。此外，微软 ( MSFT ) 和谷歌 ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) 等“云巨头”已宣布将其服务器和网络资产的使用寿命从四年延长至六年。微软首席财务官最近表示：“对我们软件的投资提高了我们操作服务器和网络设备的效率以及技术的进步，导致寿命延长到历史会计使用寿命之外”此类行动将直接影响 AMD 等公司，因为延迟的 IT 支出将影响其增长率以及业内许多其他公司。在技术方面，AMD 是一家了不起的公司和真正的创新者。NVIDIA 试图收购该公司（但被阻止）的事实证明了其技术和资产的质量。它拥有快速增长的记录和出色的执行能力，这是英特尔等其他公司无法做到的。该股票仍然被低估，因此从长远来看，这看起来是一个很好的机会。但是，由于 IT 支出削减和游戏需求疲软，我确实预计明年会出现一些短期波动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9990799233,"gmtCreate":1660408478725,"gmtModify":1676533466098,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good 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