美联储负债迎来近一年最低值，钱都流去了哪里？

美股研究社2022-12-02

自QT开始以来，总负债减少了3440亿美元。负债之间发生了巨大转变：储备金已经暴跌了1.12万亿美元。我们一般讨论美联储在其资产负债表上的资产。国库券、MBS、回购等。但今天，我们要看一下美联储资产负债表上的四大负债。在每个资产负债表上，总资产=总负债+资本（美联储的资本受国会限制，目前为420亿美元）。根据美联储每周的资产负债表，由于感恩节，比正常情况下晚一天发布，总负债降至8.58万亿美元。...

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xiaochoochoo
·2022-12-03
o no
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晶峰
·2022-12-03
Wow
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7495cb7
·2022-12-03
**
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7495cb7
·2022-12-03
**總理
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7495cb7
·2022-12-03
華春瑩
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7495cb7
·2022-12-03
**
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7495cb7
·2022-12-03
**
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7495cb7
·2022-12-03
**
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Where has all the money gone?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/233868414a6c4eac4ca20ed92f0970de","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"自QT开始以来，总负债减少了3440亿美元。负债之间发生了巨大转变：储备金已经暴跌了1.12万亿美元。我们一般讨论美联储在其资产负债表上的资产。国库券、MBS、回购等。但今天，我们要看一下美联储资产负债表上的四大负债。在每个资产负债表上，总资产=总负债+资本（美联储的资本受国会限制，目前为420亿美元）。根据美联储每周的资产负债表，由于感恩节，比正常情况下晚一天发布，总负债降至8.58万亿美元。这比2022年4月13日的峰值减少了3440亿美元，是2021年11月3日以来的最低值。负债总额反映了美联储的总资产（减去420亿美元的资本）。但这些负债的构成发生了很大的变化，这就是我们稍后要研究的内容，涉及银行、财政部货币市场基金、美元以及政府的支票账户。自2021年12月以来，准备金减少了1.12万亿美元。准备金余额——银行存放在美联储以赚取利息的现金，类似于一个大的储蓄账户。从2021年12月的峰值暴跌了1.12万亿美元。2021年底是美联储开始缩减其QE资产购买的时候，并且QE于2022年3月结束。银行利用其在美联储的储备金账户在银行之间转移资金，并与美联储做生意，例如根据量化宽松政策向美联储出售证券。准备金是美联储资产负债表上的一项负债，它们是美联储欠银行的钱。准备金是银行可以投资的流动性最强、无风险的付息资产，它们也被计入银行的监管资本。截至上次FOMC会议，美联储向银行支付3.9%的储备金利息。另外，银行可以通过购买国库券来投资其多余的现金，而且他们正在这样做。一个月的国库券收益率目前是4.16%，但这些证券的流动性不如准备金；它们必须被出售才能变成现金，而准备金账户就像一个储蓄账户，银行可以直接提取。银行在自己的资产负债表上，银行不称这些准备金为“准备金”。那是美联储的一个术语。银行把它们作为资产，称之为 \"生息存款\"、\"生息现金 \"或类似的名称。准备金是银行系统中流动性的一种表现形式，它并不追逐其他资产。QT正在从金融系统中抽走流动性，而流动性耗尽的地方之一是储备。但准备金暴跌1.12万亿美元，远远大于QT下美联储整体资产和负债下降的3440亿美元。这意味着银行现在正在追逐其他收益率高于储备金的选择，这些选择包括国库券。准备金，银行存款，以及对现金的竞争这种存放在美联储的银行现金只代表了银行从客户存款中获得的一小部分现金。对银行来说，客户的存款在其账面上是两件事：欠客户的金额（负债）；以及从客户那里收到的现金金额（资产）。为了用这些现金赚取收入，银行购买证券，或将现金存入美联储，或发放贷款，等等。它还必须保留一些现金来处理交易，满足取款，等等。所有美国商业银行的总存款（负债）从2021年4月的峰值下降了4330亿美元，至17.7万亿美元。换句话说，客户通过储蓄产品和交易账户借给银行17.7万亿美元的现金，如个人和企业支票账户，企业工资账户，以及在发生重大交易时突然短暂膨胀的现金的企业账户，如涉及数十亿美元现金的公司收购。但是，客户现在为他们的一些现金找到了更好的用途，而不是将其存入银行，几乎没有收益，而例如较短期的国库券现在的收益超过4%，因此自4月以来，他们已经从银行撤出了4330亿美元的现金。隔夜逆回购协议美联储目前对其所谓的隔夜 \"反向回购协议\"（RRPs）支付3.8%。根据这些RRPs，美联储吸收现金并发放抵押品（国库证券）。RRP是美联储的一项负债，因为它是美联储欠其交易方的现金。美联储向两类人提供RRP：外国官方账户，其他中央银行停放美元现金的地方；以及其他账户，主要是美国国债货币市场基金。两者加起来的总余额从4月份的峰值下降了2080亿美元，至2.43万亿美元。但是，外国官方存款准备金从今年年初的范围内猛增了600亿至800亿美元，达到3610亿美元，与前一周一起，是有史以来最高的。其他隔夜存款准备金从9月份的峰值下降了2690亿美元，至2.03万亿美元，为6月份以来的最低值，这意味着财政部货币市场基金不太需要将多余现金存放在美联储。从2021年春天开始，国债货币市场基金被现金淹没了。他们通常购买期限较短的国债，但需求如此之大，以至于短期收益率在2021年初短暂跌破0%，这可能会导致货币市场基金破发，即一个单位的价值跌破1美元，这可能会引发基金的挤兑，危机可能由此蔓延，这就是为什么美联储开始提供RRP，然后开始对其支付利息。而今年早些时候，当美联储开始加息，但银行仍支付接近0%的存款时，财政部货币市场基金开始将其手头的短期现金从银行账户转移到RRPs，因为美联储支付的利息比银行高。准备金，正如我们在上面看到的，在2021年12月达到了顶峰。其他RRPs似乎在2022年9月达到了顶峰。与中央银行的RRP，虽然相对较小，但已经飙升到了一个记录。流通的货币如果客户在自动取款机上或柜台上需要纸币，银行手上必须有足够的纸币。外国银行与美国银行有关系，为其客户获得美元。银行从美联储那里获得这些纸质美元，以换取抵押品，如国库券，这些都是美联储的资产。官方称为联邦储备券，它们是美联储的负债，基本上是它从持有人那里借来的钱。在QE之前，流通中的货币是美联储资产负债表上资产增加的主要驱动力，通过银行为获得FRNs而必须提供的抵押品。而且需求量一直很大，但不是用于支付目的，对支付目的的需求正在下降。纸质美元被藏在世界各地，用于合法和非法的目的，当人们担心发生危机时，需求就会激增。流通的货币这两年有所增长，现在达到了2.29万亿美元的新纪录，比2020年2月增加了5010亿美元。财政部一般账户政府的支票账户是在纽约联邦储备银行，政府在财政部总账户（TGA）的金额是美联储欠政府的钱，是美联储的负债。在政府通过发行巨额债券筹集巨额现金以支付刺激计划后，余额一直在大幅波动，从债务上限斗争期间政府几乎用尽现金时的低点到2020年7月的高点。通货膨胀多年来也有影响：它推动了支出的增加，更大的资金流出需要更大的余额，以避免在特定的日子里耗尽现金。TGA余额从前一周的4720亿美元略微上升至4930亿美元，这是自2022年1月以来的最低值。在2020年初之后，账户余额现在正处于正常化过程中。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9965776358,"gmtCreate":1670030518574,"gmtModify":1676538291413,"author":{"id":"4095548256553960","authorId":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095548256553960","authorIdStr":"4095548256553960"},"htmlText":"o 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