Yields are sliding but U.S. economic indicators are improving. Here’s what’s driving the bond market ‘datapathy.’

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Yields are sliding but U.S. economic indicators are improving. Here’s what’s driving the bond market ‘datapathy.’

MarketWatch2021-04-16

Does the U.S. bond market have a case of “datapathy”? That’s the question on the lips of bond traders who have seen Treasury yields slide despite a parade of impressive economic data since last week, ...

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0421catcat
·2021-04-16
Ya
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Boo2bear
·2021-04-16
Will tech be outperforming?
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- FFX:
  [财迷]
  2021-04-16
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WeiKeong
·2021-04-16
Good news
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- WeiKeong:
  [得意]
  2021-04-16
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- Nix520:
  ?
  2021-04-16
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- Jojofi:
  Yeah
  2021-04-16
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ZhiLing
·2021-04-16
good or bad?
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HuatZaiKai
·2021-04-16
Comment and like please
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4
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- KyleFong:
  Done. Please comment back here as return
  2021-04-16
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- Billie Lo:
  Done. plz reply my comment tq [Grin]
  2021-04-16
  Reply
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Elfreid
·2021-04-16
Like and comment please
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3
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- KingMeng:
  do like and comment back. thanks!
  2021-04-16
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Xinyong
·2021-04-16
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- KingMengReplying toHuatZaiKai:
  thanks!
  2021-04-16
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- HuatZaiKai:
  comment and like this please
  2021-04-16
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- KingMeng:
  do like and comment back. thanks!
  2021-04-16
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PKK
·2021-04-16
Mkay
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- KingMengReplying tosoechun:
  thanks!
  2021-04-16
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- soechun:
  mkayyy
  2021-04-16
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- soechun:
  ogay
  2021-04-16
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And those questions came to the fore again after U.S. retail sales rose nearly 10% in March,the second largest increase on record, aided by the federal pandemic relief checks sent to Americans.\nInstead of rising in response to evidence of the improving economic trajectory, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 8 basis points to 1.55% on Thursday, pushing below the 1.60% level that had marked the floor for the benchmark maturity since mid-March.\nThe drop in 10-year Treasury yields is “very surprising,” according to Jeff Schulze, an investment strategist with ClearBridge Investments. “It’s not the reaction that I would have expected given the huge beat in retail sales” and the drop in jobless claims, he said in an interview.\nInitial claims for unemployment benefits sank by 193,000 in early April to a fresh pandemic low.\nSchulze chalked it up to a “‘sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction wherein investors had been anticipating a strong retail-sales number and had already sold or shorted bonds and were now buying them back again because they believe they’ve seen “peak economic momentum.”\nAnalysts were also ready to discount the March retail sales data in part because the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory was likely to be driven by how fast the economy was expected to hit full employment, and not the retail numbers that were artificially boosted by the trillions of government stimulus funds coursing through businesses and households.\n“Discounting the data makes a ton of sense,” said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. “That’s why rates are rallying. It’s just noninformation.”\nOthers suggested the drivers of the bond-market rally had little to do with investors’ expectations over economic growth, but rather behind-the-scenes moves among the likes of fast-moving hedge funds and more deliberate Japanese pension funds.\nAnalysts had noted Japanese investors were attracted to the current level of yields on U.S. government bonds, even after taking into account the cost of hedging for currency fluctuations.\nIndeed, Japanese buyers snapped up $15.6 billion in overseas notes and bonds during the week of April 9, up from the previous week’s $3.4 billion.\n“There are some large pockets of money in Asia that are moving in a big way,” said Graff.\nMeanwhile, Nomura strategists noted shorter-term traders in bonds such as commodity trading advisors and hedge funds were moving out of their short positions on Treasurys.\nWhen investors cover their short positions and buy bonds, they can end up fueling the rally in government bonds beyond what 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Please comment back here as return","text":"Done. Please comment back here as return","html":"Done. Please comment back here as return"},{"id":4049171,"gmtCreate":1618537821095,"gmtModify":1680784269847,"authorId":3569982147441048,"author":{"id":3569982147441048,"idStr":"3569982147441048","authorId":3569982147441048,"name":"Billie Lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de8913068819a9735f0bb22ec7a5e72","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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