AMD Stock Forecast: What Might The Price Be By 2025

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AMD Stock Forecast: What Might The Price Be By 2025

seekingalpha2021-06-11

Summary AMD has delivered outsized returns over the last five years, but shares have underperformed the market in 2021 so far. The current consolidation pattern could remain in place for a while, ...

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ttm17396
·2021-06-14
To the moon. 400
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zhann
·2021-06-13
Not good
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JFK23
·2021-06-12
Long term stock.[強] [強] [強]
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- Ranchy:
  Maybe I should buy more abit.
  2021-06-12
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dent
·2021-06-11
Please like and comment
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玩家123
·2021-06-11
amd is going to be a very strong stock in the future
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adriandino
·2021-06-11
Buy buy buy
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- Quickpick:
  yes
  2021-06-11
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AngieL
·2021-06-11
Chiong ahhh To the Moon!!! [開心] [哇塞] [看漲] [美金] [強]
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- Bubbleman:
  [微笑]
  2021-06-11
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dandan_4896
·2021-06-11
I jus finished purchasing my durians lol
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- Quickpick:
  gd buy
  2021-06-11
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carrotman
·2021-06-11
I hope price will go higher next week.
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- dent:
  Please like and comment
  2021-06-11
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Zazaza
·2021-06-11
Go go
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- Quickpick:
  gogogo
  2021-06-11
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jeff123
·2021-06-11
Plse like and comment. Thanks
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- jeff123:
  there u go
  2021-06-13
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- Quickpick:
  like
  2021-06-11
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- Kiwii:
  like my comment too hehe
  2021-06-11
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whiskyfount
·2021-06-11
Lol
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ZWKS
·2021-06-11
Highee
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我会成为小富婆
·2021-06-11
Like and comment please
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- 我会成为小富婆:
  Thanks
  2021-06-12
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- jeff123:
  there u go
  2021-06-11
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Eileenz88
·2021-06-11
Like n comment pls ?
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- Cyberboyz:
  Ok
  2021-06-13
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- Cyberboyz:
  Ok
  2021-06-13
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- Eileenz88:
  ?
  2021-06-11
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Jankin86
·2021-06-11
Cool
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DavidKoh
·2021-06-11
Nice
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- Tiltedguy:
  ?
  2021-06-11
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The Knight
·2021-06-11
Semicon industry will grow for a long time. Take a long term approach
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- The Knight:
  [Cool]
  2022-08-07
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- The Knight:
  [Cool]
  2022-06-26
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- The Knight:
  [Cool]
  2022-06-13
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ratata
·2021-06-11
Like and comment pls :)
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- ratataReplying toKok:
  ty!
  2021-06-12
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- Eileenz88:
  ?
  2021-06-11
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- Kok:
  pls reply back. tks!!
  2021-06-11
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deyi123
·2021-06-11
Amd good
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- Kok:
  pls reply back. tks!!
  2021-06-11
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- Gamestonk11:
  like and comment pleas
  2021-06-11
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(AMD) is a fast-growing semiconductor company that is gaining share in attractive markets such as data centers. The stock has, over the last couple of years, performed quite well, although shares have been moving sideways for the last couple of months. AMD should be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years, but equity price gains may be less pronounced, as rapid ongoing growth is already priced in at current valuations.\nWill AMD Stock Rise Again?\nThose that bought AMD a couple of years ago have gotten used to a very strong performance from their investment, not only when it comes to AMD's operational progress, but also when it comes to share price gains. AMD does not pay any dividends, but massive price increases over the last five years have nevertheless made AMD a great investment for those that entered positions a couple of years ago - over the last five years, AMD rose by a massive 1,700%. In the more recent past, however, the performance has been less stellar:\nData byYCharts\nOver the last six months, AMD is down 13%, while the broad market gained 15%. This underperformance over the last couple of months went hand in hand with a similar underperformance that can be seen in many other high-growth market darlings from 2020 and before, such as Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), or Zoom Video (ZM). These stocks had all benefitted from multiple expansion during their upwards runs, and they are now consolidating while it seems like the market wants to wait for their business growth to merit more share price gains. Investors shouldn't expect another 1,000%+ price gain over the next five years from AMD, or anything close to that, but thanks to the fact that underlying growth remains intact, AMD stock should eventually start to rise again - although at a more moderate pace compared to the last couple of years.\nIs AMD A Good Long-Term Stock?\nTwo things should be considered here - the company's growth outlook, and its valuation. AMD has delivered sizeable business growth in recent years, on the back of a combination of market share gains and overall market growth, as global chip demand continues to grow rapidly.\nData byYCharts\nAMD was able to grow its revenues by around 200% over the last five years while growing its margins significantly as well. Gross margins rose thanks to an improving portfolio mix with more higher-value products such as data center chips being sold. Operating margins, meanwhile, went from negative to positive thanks to the impact of gross margin expansion and tailwinds from operating leverage.\nMaintaining exceptionally high growth rates forever is not possible, as growth inevitably slows down once a company gets larger. AMD will thus, in all likelihood, not triple its revenue again over the next five years. But the company will see compelling business growth nevertheless, I believe. The data center market, for example, is forecasted to grow by 10% a year through 2025. Add in some market share gains, and AMD could very well be able to grow its revenue by 12%-15% in this segment. Over a five-year period, this would equate to revenue growth of around 70%-100%. This is less than AMD's growth in recent years, but still quite attractive. Add in some further improvements in AMD's margins, and net profits could grow considerably more than 100% over the next five years, and profit growth should remain attractive during the second half of the 2020s as well, I believe. This is due to the potential for more market share gains, as AMD's current market share is still rather small, and also due to the world's increasing hunger for all kinds of semiconductors, showcased by the currentglobal chip shortage. Add in loose monetary policy, economies reopening following the pandemic and corresponding economic growth, and the macro environment looks favorable for AMD and its peers. There is no guarantee for growth, of course, and investors should remember that growth projections in 2000 did not work out well - shares went down for well above a decade from that point. With its current product portfolio, which looks highly competitive tech-wise, and thanks to an accommodating macro-environment, AMD has a very solid outlook in what I deem a base case scenario, however. Due to the above-average valuation shares are trading at right now, investors may not see gains in the very near term, however. It seems very much possible that shares continue to move sideways for a while, as they have done over the last couple of months.\nWhat Is The AMD Stock Forecast For 2025?\nWhen trying to project what AMD's stock price in 2025 may look like, we have to make estimates for the company's profitability in that year, and for its valuation in 2025.\nAMD's earnings should grow meaningfully over the coming years, due to the macro tailwinds mentioned above, such as growing chip demand, but also due to company-specific factors. AMD has been highly successful with its EPYC processors in the past, and the third generation of that product line should allow AMD to gain further market share. 3rd generation EPYC processors, which use the Zen 3 architecture promise more power for data centers and are thus welcomed by large customers such as Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), Cisco (CSCO), IBM (IBM), and many more.\nWith its Ryzen series of desktop processors, AMD is also well-positioned for further market share gains in the gaming hardware market, which positions the company well for benefitting fromstrong growth in this industry.\nLast but not least, AMD's pending takeover of Xilinx (XLNX) should impact results positively once the takeover has closed. AMD states that this acquisition will be immediately accretive for margins, cash flows, and earnings per share. Once synergies are lifted, accretion should improve further a year or two from the closing date, which is why this acquisition will play a role in AMD's earnings growth in 2022 and 2023. It also expands AMD's addressable market further, which improves the long-term potential for the company in market segments such as data centers.\nIt is not guaranteed that AMD's offerings will remain highly competitive forever, but at least for the foreseeable future, the company's product lineup looks strong and conductive for further market share gains. Add in operating leverage and improving gross margins thanks to a bigger portion of higher-value products being sold, and it is not surprising to see that analysts are expecting strong earnings growth from AMD in the coming years.\nAnalysts are currently expecting earnings per share of $2.69 for 2022, and $3.35 for 2023. On top of that, the analyst community believes that AMD will be able to generate long-term EPS growth of 27% a year:\nData byYCharts\nWhen we assume that analysts are correct, then AMD's earnings per share would total $5.40 in 2025. Right now AMD trades at 37 this year's earnings, but it seems unlikely that this valuation will hold forever. Instead, as growth will inevitably slow down at one point, which will result in multiple compression, AMD's valuation will, I believe, be lower in 2025. Its peer Intel (INTC), for reference, trades at 12x this year's earnings.\nIf AMD were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, the mid-point between its current valuation and the current valuation of its more mature peer Intel, then AMD's shares would be valued at $135 in 2025. Relative to a current share price of $81, that would represent a compelling, but not extremely spectacular gain of 67% over the next 4.5 years (when we look at December 2025). On an annualized basis, this equates to a return of 12%. A low-double-digit return is attractive, but it seems pretty clear that this is nowhere as good as what investors have gotten over the last five years. It is, however, also possible that analysts are a little too optimistic with their estimates.\nLooking at a scenario where current EPS estimates for 2023 are 10% too high, and where EPS growth in 2024 and 2025 is 20% instead of 27%, we get to a price target of $110 in 2025, which would equate to annualized returns of 7%. One can, of course, also make more bullish assumptions about AMD's business growth or its valuation in 2025, but I feel that being somewhat conservatives with projections like these is prudent.\nIs AMD Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nBased on the scenarios laid out above, one could call AMD a solid buy for those with long-term investment horizons that do not mind the uncertainties, AMD's not very convincing past in 2000-2015, and the fact that AMD does not pay any dividends.\nFor those looking for near-term upside, AMD may not be the best choice, however, as the current consolidation pattern, coupled with AMD's above-average valuation, at 37x this year's earnings, could limit AMD's share price upside over the coming months.\nIt should also be considered that the vast semiconductor space offers many other potential candidates for exposure to this industry, and AMD surely is not the only stock with upside potential over the next couple of years. Still, for those looking for a higher-growth name in the space and that do not mind paying up for growth, AMD seems like a solid choice when one invests with a goal of holding shares for several years.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":185713272,"gmtCreate":1623673042696,"gmtModify":1704208284650,"author":{"id":"3583669366978952","authorId":"3583669366978952","name":"ttm17396","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583669366978952","authorIdStr":"3583669366978952"},"htmlText":"To the moon. 400","listText":"To the moon. 400","text":"To the moon. 400","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185713272","repostId":1119906239,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":182281757,"gmtCreate":1623577590779,"gmtModify":1704206533695,"author":{"id":"3585403364637520","authorId":"3585403364637520","name":"zhann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487a04f2668891a1a674fa5e8a9877b4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585403364637520","authorIdStr":"3585403364637520"},"htmlText":"Not good","listText":"Not good","text":"Not good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182281757","repostId":1119906239,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":188877482,"gmtCreate":1623430201546,"gmtModify":1704203635664,"author":{"id":"3577142139469832","authorId":"3577142139469832","name":"JFK23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bdaa6cc4eddbc577da598bd89525cf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577142139469832","authorIdStr":"3577142139469832"},"htmlText":"Long term stock.[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","listText":"Long term stock.[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","text":"Long term stock.[強] [強] [強]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188877482","repostId":1119906239,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4710433,"gmtCreate":1623492918551,"gmtModify":1663228577542,"authorId":3581998170323436,"author":{"id":3581998170323436,"idStr":"3581998170323436","authorId":3581998170323436,"name":"Ranchy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e13d03df0c118379d72d9b5531e0186","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":188877482,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Maybe I should buy more <u>abit.</u>","text":"Maybe I should buy more <u>abit.</u>","html":"Maybe I should buy more <u>abit.</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":188913458,"gmtCreate":1623419173974,"gmtModify":1704203136400,"author":{"id":"3574392084255465","authorId":"3574392084255465","name":"dent","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54b2a08f8905d05e3d00b78582bf531","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574392084255465","authorIdStr":"3574392084255465"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188913458","repostId":1119906239,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":181773558,"gmtCreate":1623414163674,"gmtModify":1704202947426,"author":{"id":"3583649786079862","authorId":"3583649786079862","name":"玩家123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583649786079862","authorIdStr":"3583649786079862"},"htmlText":"amd is going to be a very strong stock in the future","listText":"amd is going to be a very strong stock in the future","text":"amd is going to be a very strong stock in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181773558","repostId":1119906239,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":181769319,"gmtCreate":1623412087731,"gmtModify":1704202889052,"author":{"id":"3557838603033373","authorId":"3557838603033373","name":"adriandino","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1cd14ed5057e0ad135ec52ba710cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557838603033373","authorIdStr":"3557838603033373"},"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181769319","repostId":1119906239,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4688600,"gmtCreate":1623417280077,"gmtModify":1663228475043,"authorId":3582063791084031,"author":{"id":3582063791084031,"idStr":"3582063791084031","authorId":3582063791084031,"name":"Quickpick","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5391a57305fb5bfc96713284252e5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":181769319,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":181788252,"gmtCreate":1623411812976,"gmtModify":1704202879873,"author":{"id":"3579056369113773","authorId":"3579056369113773","name":"AngieL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/105985993c92a60326ffb85c64ef4c9f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579056369113773","authorIdStr":"3579056369113773"},"htmlText":"Chiong ahhh To the Moon!!!&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[哇塞]&nbsp;[看漲]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","listText":"Chiong ahhh To the Moon!!!&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[哇塞]&nbsp;[看漲]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","text":"Chiong ahhh To the Moon!!! 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