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Zhutong Hong Kong Market Analysis | Logic Behind Global Stock Rally, Brokerage Stocks Erupt in Collective Breakout

Stock News01-06 20:36

Global stock markets have unexpectedly come alive. The U.S. market, benefiting from its oil acquisition, is naturally performing well. More strikingly, Asian equities hit a record high on Tuesday, with South Korea's Seoul Composite Index breaking through the 4,500-point mark. The Nikkei 225 rose over 1%, approaching last year's record high. The A-share market also showed considerable strength, with more than 4,100 stocks rising across the board and over a hundred hitting the daily limit-up. The Hong Kong market gapped up at the open and closed 1.38% higher.

According to the latest reports, on the evening of January 5th local time, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is under U.S. control, and his wife Cilia Flores made their first court appearance at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. During the hearing, Maduro rejected all U.S. charges, stating "I am innocent." It remains to be seen how the U.S. will conclude this farce. Speculation is rife about the next target, which appears to be clearly Greenland. Donald Trump stated bluntly: "We'll think about Greenland in about two months. Let's talk about Greenland again in 20 days." The Danish Prime Minister indicated that a U.S. "takeover" of Greenland would mean the end of NATO. Targeting Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal suggests the Trump administration's strategic vision is gradually taking shape. Simultaneously, the relationship between Europe and the U.S. has become more delicate.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting regarding the U.S. military strike on Venezuela. The Chinese representative emphasized: China firmly supports the Venezuelan government and people in safeguarding their sovereign security and legitimate rights, and firmly supports regional countries in maintaining the status of Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that no country should act as the international police, and no country should consider itself the international judge. China advocates a common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security concept, respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, values the legitimate security concerns of nations, and insists on resolving differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation. This is the "Chinese approach" to addressing global security challenges and achieving universal and common security. Voicing justice and creating a balance is crucial.

Various online opinions suggest this is a replay of past scripts, but frankly, the current situation is truly different. The performance of the stock market speaks volumes; it remains remarkably calm. Essentially, the stability of our stock market represents the "other pole" of global market stability. On January 5th, Goldman Sachs released a report titled "China 2026 Outlook: Exploring New Momentum." The report recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks for 2026.

Gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold rising 2.64% on Monday to $4,446.50 per ounce. COMEX gold futures climbed 2.96%, while COMEX silver futures jumped 7.63%. How should we interpret the rise in gold? Typically, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, and this factor is naturally present now, but it is not the primary driver, as stock markets are also rising, and gold usually moves inversely to equities. Therefore, a larger reason is dedollarization. The recent U.S. actions have significantly damaged its international reputation, with no one daring to openly express support. Even staunch ally the UK saw Prime Minister Starmer immediately distance himself, stating it had nothing to do with Britain. Consequently, global dedollarization is likely to accelerate. Zijin Mining (02899) rose nearly 6% intraday, hitting another record high. Wanguo Gold Group (03939) and Zhaojin Mining (01818) both gained over 7%. The January Zhutong top pick, Zijin Gold International (02259), rose over 4%.

The insurance stocks mentioned yesterday continued their strong performance. Prudential (02378) announced it will initiate a share buyback program of up to $1.2 billion, expected to be completed by December 18th. It rose over 5% today. Others like New China Life Insurance (01336), Ping An (02318), and China Life (02628) again rose over 4%. The domestic property stocks highlighted in yesterday's sector focus also performed strongly. Beike-W (02423), Longfor Group (00960), and China Jinmao (00817) all gained over 4%.

The heavyweight sector driving the market today was the market bellwether - brokerage stocks. The direct catalyst was the recent five consecutive days of turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan, coupled with the margin trading balance breaking through 2.56 trillion yuan. Expectations for brokerage, margin trading, and investment banking income have surged significantly. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the brokerage sector is around 1.35-1.5 times, near historical lows, prompting sidelined funds to naturally flow into this sector. The strongest performer was Jiufang Zhitou (09636), which focuses on investment advisory, as its business is purer and earnings improvement more direct. It surged nearly 19% today. Others like Guotai Junan International (01788), China Merchants Securities (06099), CICC (03908), and Guotai Haitong (02611) all rose over 8%.

Reports suggest that Galactic Energy plans to conduct the launch mission of its "Ceres-1 Sea Launch Type (Flight 7)" commercial carrier rocket in the near future, with the mission codenamed "Wang Haichao." Overseas, Elon Musk proposed a plan to deploy 100GW of solar-powered AI satellites annually, driving demand for space-based photovoltaics through low-orbit satellites and space computing. January Zhutong top pick Drinda (02865): The conversion efficiency of its small-area perovskite-TOPCon tandem cell has broken through 33.53%, placing its technical indicators at an industry-leading level. Its partner, Shangyi Photoelectric, is a rare domestic producer of satellite batteries. Drinda's core team has deep expertise in perovskite aerospace applications for years, and the company is closely collaborating with Shangyi to advance in-orbit verification and subsequent industrialization. It rose over 8% today. Other stocks include Goldwind (02208), which has a stake in LandSpace, up over 5%. January Zhutong top picks CIMC Enric (03899) and C Strategic Tec (01725) both rose over 3%.

At the 2026 CES exhibition, Donut Lab announced it will launch what it claims is the world's first all-solid-state battery, ready for OEM mass production and set to be first used on Verge Motorcycles' TS Pro and Ultra motorcycle models. If successfully delivered to customers, this would be a major milestone in global electrification, marking the transition of solid-state technology from the lab to mass-produced vehicles. On January 5th, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) stated on an interactive platform that the 2.4 million ton per year mining construction project for the lithium-tin polymetallic ore at Inner Mongolia Weilasituo Mining Co., Ltd. has officially received approval, with mining equipment being delivered in batches. It rose over 6% today.

Non-ferrous metals were also quite strong, particularly aluminum. News that Mozambique's Mozal aluminum plant will transition to indefinite suspension from March 15, 2026, has renewed market concerns about the stability of electrolytic aluminum supply. LME aluminum broke through the $3,000 per ton mark, hitting its highest level since 2022. The main Shanghai aluminum futures contract also breached the 24,000 yuan per ton level. Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) and Chalieco (02068) both rose over 8%. China Hongqiao (01378) and the January Zhutong top pick CHALCO (02600) hit record highs today.

According to battery network reports, on December 31, 2025, Zhongwei Xingyang Mining, a subsidiary of CNWEI (02579), held a launch ceremony for its Xinchang phosphate mine project in Longshui Township, Kaiyang County, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province. The mine has total resources of 98.4405 million tons, classifying it as a large phosphate resource. The planned construction scale is 2.8 million tons per year, with a mining validity period of 10 years. It rose over 6% today.

MINIEYE (02431) announced that it recently received commitments from its major shareholders, executive directors Liu Guoping, Yang Guang, Zhou Xiang, Wang Qicheng, and individual shareholders Yan Shengye and Wu Jianxin, stating they will not reduce their holdings. As the original lock-up periods for their H-shares and unlisted shares were expiring, these shareholders submitted letters voluntarily extending their lock-up periods. According to the announcement, the extensions range from as short as six months to as long as one year. Key dates to note are June 27, 2026, and December 27, 2026. The stock rose over 11% today.

At CES in Las Vegas on Monday, January 5th EST, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the Alpamayo platform, enabling vehicles to perform "reasoning" in the real world. NVIDIA took a key step in autonomous driving by open-sourcing its first inference VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model, Alpamayo1. Huang stated that the first cars equipped with NVIDIA technology will hit U.S. roads in the first quarter. This move signals NVIDIA's positioning as an "Android system for autonomous driving," building an open ecosystem that differentiates it from Tesla's completely closed FSD system. Key stocks: Zhejiang Shibao (01057), Nexteer (01316), Black Sesame (02533), Robosense (02498), Horizon Robotics-W (09660), MINIEYE (02431), CIDI (03881).

Zijin Gold International (02259): Successful Integrated Trial Operation at Julong Copper Mine Phase II Expansion; High Gold Production Growth Rate. The main construction and core equipment installation for the Julong Copper Mine Phase II expansion project have been fully completed, with successful integrated trial operation. After the Julong Copper Mine Phase II project reaches full capacity, it will add 200,000 tons of daily ore processing capacity. Combined, Phases I and II will have a total daily processing capacity of 350,000 tons, equivalent to creating 1.3 times the original "Julong" mine. Review: The company owns a total of 8 gold mines distributed across South America, Africa, Central Asia, and Oceania. Gold business accounts for over 95% of its operations, making it a pure gold play. The company's attributable gold resources amount to 1,812.7 tons, with attributable gold reserves of 851.9 tons. It has lower acquisition costs; the average acquisition cost for its gold mines from 2019-2024 was $61.3 per ounce, below the industry average of $92.9 per ounce. Furthermore, the acquired mines continue to achieve reserve growth; for instance, by the end of 2024, the resource amounts for the Rosebel and Akyem gold mines had increased over 70% since acquisition. Over the past three years, the company's production growth rate of 21% was the fastest among major gold stocks, and it has consistently met or exceeded its initial annual production guidance. Through organic growth and M&A, the company's gold production CAGR is expected to maintain a high growth rate of over 15%. Gold prices are expected to remain in a long-term bull market, with global central bank gold purchases sustained at over 1,000 tons annually. Planning for the Julong Copper Mine Phase III project is already underway. After Phase III, the Julong Copper Mine will rank among the world's largest copper mines in terms of mining and processing scale.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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