On Monday local time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone during a public appearance, stating that inflation remains manageable and that interest rate hikes are not currently necessary, providing support for the recently pressured bond market. Due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, risks to crude oil supply have intensified, driving international oil prices higher.
In the precious metals sector, international gold prices rose for a second consecutive session on Monday. The June gold futures contract on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $4,557.50 per ounce, up 1.45%. The May silver futures contract settled at $70.569 per ounce, gaining 1.11%.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed on the 30th. The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran entered its fifth week. Powell's dovish comments, suggesting a controlled inflation outlook and no immediate need for rate hikes, supported the bond market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in April fell to 2.6%. U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday but lost ground for most of the session, pressured by fresh threats from former President Trump towards Iran and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ultimately closing mostly lower. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.11%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.39% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.73%. The S&P 500 neared correction territory, with technology stocks being the biggest drag, particularly the chip sector.
In Europe, the three major stock indices all closed higher on the 30th. Despite signs of weakening economic confidence in the EU and the Eurozone, European markets finished the day in positive territory, boosted by signals of potential de-escalation in the Middle East from former President Trump earlier on Monday, alongside gains in mining and energy stocks. The UK's FTSE 100 index advanced 1.61%, France's CAC 40 gained 0.92%, and Germany's DAX index rose 1.18%. Data released by Germany's Federal Statistical Office showed the country's Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in March, the highest rate in over a year. Energy costs surged 7.2% compared to the previous year, marking the first positive growth since December 2023. Analysts suggest that fuel and heating oil were primary drivers of the overall inflation increase in Germany, with the impact of rising oil and gas costs gradually becoming evident in price levels across European nations.
Also on Monday, the latest data from Eurostat indicated a significant decline in European economic and consumer confidence for March. The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Eurozone, which measures business confidence across various sectors, fell to 96.6. Meanwhile, a separate survey from the European Commission showed that consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone have climbed to their highest level since 2022.
In the commodities market, international oil prices continued their ascent amid ongoing Middle East tensions, which heightened concerns over supply disruptions. At settlement, the May West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $102.88 per barrel, rising over 3% and settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. The May Brent crude futures contract settled at $112.78 per barrel, up 0.19%.
International gold and silver prices also advanced on the 30th. In the precious metals space, market focus remained on the Middle East conflict, boosting safe-haven demand. Additional support came from bargain hunting, which helped lift gold prices. Gold rose for a second straight session, with the June COMEX contract settling at $4,557.50 per ounce, up 1.45%. Silver futures for May delivery settled at $70.569 per ounce, a gain of 1.11%.