摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉

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摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉

华尔街见闻2021-05-19

别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。 “美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的...

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gwp0123
·2021-05-19
Wake up
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- tw0303:
  for what
  2021-05-19
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Choolin
·2021-05-19
通脹來了，股價也會漲
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在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期，从而导致本币汇率走强；而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高，从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n\n偏偏美联储的情况比较特别：这么多年来，美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面，官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在，他们也还认为，名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久，才会考虑收紧政策。\n基于这种规律，摩根士丹利认为，当美国通胀率高于市场预期，应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱，而非走强，因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。\n那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后，美元指数当时走高了呢？摩根士丹利解释说，这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为，美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略，去收紧政策，因为目前通胀实在是太高了。\n如果这种解释确实是事实，投资者真是这么想的，摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为，美联储大概率维持当前的观点，理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好，零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。\n换句话说，通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。\n“有基于此，美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。\n到秋天，美联储可能才会行动起来\n摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。\n\n 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