Summary
- I am a big Meta bull, as I believe the company's stock is deeply undervalued as compared to current fundamentals and future growth potential.
- In this article I will provide investors with an important update regarding Mark Zuckerberg's Metaverse strategy: the launch of a new high-end VR console.
- Cambria could be the upside catalyst which proves that Meta remains one of the world's leading tech companies, and that the investments in R&D are not wasted.
- Cambria’s key new technology features will be better display resolutions as well as eye and face tracking.
- Investors who trade options might like to have a look at the 105/115%-Moneyness Call spreads with October 28 expiry. The trade offers a payout of 4:1.
Thesis
I am a big Meta (NASDAQ:META) bull, as I believe the company's stock is deeply undervalued as compared to current fundamentals and future growth potential. But the market arguably disagrees. Ever since Mark Zuckerberg presented his vision for the 'Metaverse' the company's stock has entered a vicious bear market. And META stock is down more than 55% from all-time highs.
Seeking Alpha
In my article Meta Platforms Stock: Exposing Senseless NarrativesI claimed the market is making a mistake, arguing against the TikTok narrative (1), the no-growth narrative (2), and the anti-metaverse narrative (3).
In this article I will provide investors with an important update regarding Mark Zuckerberg's Metaverse strategy - the launch of a new high-end VR console. This, in my opinion, could likely be the upside catalyst which proves to the market that Meta Platforms is one of the world's leading tech companies, and that the investments in R&D are not wasted after all.
Excited About The Metaverse
Meta announced earnings for the June quarter 2022on 27 July and delivered numbers slightly below analyst consensus. However, the 'recessionary' environment for digital advertisers has already been well noted after Snap's (SNAP) profit warning in May. Accordingly, I personally was much more focused on Zuckerberg’s qualitative comments during the analyst conference call.
One of the most interesting aspects of Meta's earnings call was related to Zuckerberg's comments regarding the Metaverse. He, like me, is still very excited about this opportunity, and it is good to see that he is pushing the vision forward, despite the market's negative sentiment regarding the Metaverse's economic potential. Zuckerberg said(emphasis added):
I feel even more strongly now that developing these platforms will unlock hundreds of billions of dollars,if not trillions, over time.
Arguably, one of the key reasons for Zuckerberg's optimism was connected to the awaited launch of 'Project Cambria', which has been scheduled to be released as early as Q3 2022. Zuckerberg commented:
Later this year we'll release Project Cambria - and the experience here is getting pretty awesome.
Upside Catalyst: Project Cambria
Project Cambria has been teased in 2021 and is thought to be the next evolution of Meta's popular Quest 2 headset. Arguably, Cambria’s key new technology features will be better display resolutions as well as eye and face tracking. Joe Rogan, who has enjoyed the opportunity to try the device, has been fascinated by the technology:
It’s so interesting when you put it on ... I’ll just describe it to people: When you put it on there was an avatar in front of me and it was an alien woman. And the alien woman, when I moved my mouth, she moved her mouth. When I moved my eyes left and right, she’s tracking my eyes. When I make an angry face it makes an angry face. When you go 'ooh!' ... it’s incredible.
Joe Rogan also added:
You know ... Oculus is awesome. It's very impressive. It's very cool.
And there should be no doubt that when Joe Rogan says something, he really means it. Zuckerberg himself said:
It'll be a high-end device focused on professional users and work, with high resolution color mixed reality … I think people are going to be pretty blown away by this.
It is also expected that Meta's new virtual reality headset will allow for AR experiences, which would allow users to engage their real-world surroundings with the VR technology. This, in my opinion, would support a wide range of activities in the context of work, fitness and gaming. The Cambria headset is expected to bepriced at approximately $800.
Conclusion
Investor Implication
I continue to believe that META stock is deeply undervalued. And I continue to sustain the claim that the stock's fair implied price is somewhere around $280/share. But so far, the market has not agreed. This could change rapidly, in my opinion, once investors see more tangible results in connection to Zuckerberg's Metaverse strategy. Project Cambria could serve as a potential catalyst.
Personally, I am very excited for Meta's new VR/AR headset, and I believe the launch of this technology will underscore the company's leading position as a true tech company. Investor sentiment is poised to change accordingly.
Trade Recommendation
Investors who trade options might like to have a look at the 105/115%-Moneyness Call spreads with October 28 expiry. Based on the implied volatility of 42% as of September 2nd, the trade would give a payout of approximately 4:1, if META shares close above 115% moneyness at expiration (ref, ca. 190 strike).
