To The Moon

The exuberance surrounding the "largest IPO in history" lasted less than two weeks, and the dramatic plunge of SpaceX from its peak of $225 to $108 has triggered a profound crisis of confidence across the AI capital market. According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, ChatGPT developer OpenAI has significantly stepped back from its initial ambition of an "IPO as early as this fall," now clearly leaning toward postponing its listing timeline to 2027. Behind this delay lies a direct collision between CEO Sam Altman's insistence on a trillion-dollar valuation floor and the harsh realities of the market.

On June 12, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq at an issue price of $135, with its market capitalization surpassing $1.77 trillion on its debut day, setting a record for the largest IPO in U.S. history. Retail subscriptions exceeded $100 billion, and the market initially viewed it as a perfect model for combining the narratives of AI and the space economy. However, this celebration lasted less than two weeks. On June 23, SpaceX suffered a single-day drop of about 16%. By July 15, the stock price fell below its $135 issue price for the first time. As of the close on July 28, SpaceX shares were trading at $116.41, representing a cumulative decline of 48.4% from the historical high of $225.64, nearly halving in value. By the close on Friday, July 31, the stock further fell to $108, with its market capitalization losing over $1.2 trillion from its peak.

This sharp decline has directly created a psychological deterrent for OpenAI's IPO plans. Bankers advising OpenAI on its IPO have explicitly warned that recent volatility in tech stocks and the significant post-IPO drop in SpaceX shares could severely dampen retail investor enthusiasm for OpenAI's offering. A source familiar with the matter revealed that over the past week, OpenAI's advisors candidly communicated to the company that retail investors might lack interest in its stock. Fidelity Securities wrote in a recent report that OpenAI's anchor valuation is "closer to $700 billion to $800 billion, rather than $1 trillion."

The core conflict driving the delay is OpenAI's valuation dilemma. In March 2026, OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round, achieving a post-money valuation of $852 billion, making it the highest-valued privately held tech company globally. Yet, this result falls far short of Altman's expectations. According to sources, Altman has been pressuring his advisory team, including bankers and lawyers, to find ways to push the company's IPO valuation to $1 trillion. The advisory team presented Altman with two options: postpone the IPO to 2027 to wait for a more favorable market environment and allow the company's financial performance to align more closely with the trillion-dollar valuation target, or list before the end of 2026 but accept a lower valuation. When presented with this choice, a person familiar with Altman's thinking stated that he deemed any plan that reduces the valuation below $1 trillion as "unworkable."

Meanwhile, OpenAI's financial condition is testing investor patience. The company reported a net loss of $385 billion last year, primarily driven by massive expenditures on computing infrastructure, research and development, and corporate restructuring. According to The Information, OpenAI burned through $3.7 billion in cash during the first quarter of 2026, exceeding half of its $5.7 billion in revenue for the same period. The company projects it will invest $600 billion in computing and hardware by 2030.

While OpenAI hesitates, its largest competitor, Anthropic, is racing toward the public market at full speed. At the end of May, Anthropic completed a $65 billion Series H funding round, pushing its post-money valuation to $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion valuation. On June 1, Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO application with the SEC. By July 15, media reports indicated that Anthropic is accelerating its IPO plans, with underwriters already arranging meetings between management and potential investors, targeting a completion as early as this October. Anthropic has selected Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase as lead underwriters. According to sources, some of OpenAI's major investors have privately expressed concerns about the company's high cash burn rate relative to its growth in recent months, while others have hedged their bets on OpenAI by investing in Anthropic. Anthropic is speeding up its fall IPO timetable and has begun meeting with potential investors, emphasizing its perceived lead over the ChatGPT maker. OpenAI, which initially aimed to list before Anthropic, may now have to wait until next year.

OpenAI's delay is not an isolated case. Analysts note that large model companies originally scheduled to launch IPOs in the second half of 2026 may postpone their plans to the first half of 2027 due to declining market risk appetite and uncertainty in the liquidity environment. This adjustment means the company's highly anticipated listing will be significantly delayed from the market's earlier expectation of this fall. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 document with the SEC on June 8. In a statement at the time, the company said: "We have not yet decided on the timing of an IPO, and it may still be some time before we do, as some things are easier to pursue as a private company. Submitting the IPO filing gives us the option to move more quickly into the public market if and when it becomes in the company's interest." The most straightforward interpretation of the 2027 timeline is that OpenAI has the capacity to wait. By delaying, the company can continue to expand usage, refine pricing, and seek a more stable business mix between consumer products, enterprise tools, and infrastructure partners before entering the public market and facing quarterly discipline. According to the latest reports, OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue in July already surpassed the total for the entire second quarter.