鲍威尔讲话今夜来袭！为何市场如此紧张？

华尔街见闻2023-02-07

对于当前过于乐观的市场而言，美联储翻脸将造成灾难性的打击。在美股继续艰难消化大超预期的1月非农报告时，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克的鹰派发言又向投资者泼了盆冷水，隔夜美股三大指数携手下挫，标普一度失守4100点，美元指数创四周以来新高。市场最大的担忧可能在于，重磅经济指标的火热会让美联储翻脸，祭出更多加息，或彻底颠覆年内降息的预期。若噩梦照进现实，这对于当前过于乐观的市场而言将造成灾难性的打击。目前，...

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嘞撸虎7
·2023-02-08
閱
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Shian
·2023-02-07
[呆住]
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嘞撸虎7
·2023-02-07
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招财大佬
·2023-02-07
唉😮‍💨
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Why is the market so tight?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ad39629e42d7ea045eb49e365c0052","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"对于当前过于乐观的市场而言，美联储翻脸将造成灾难性的打击。在美股继续艰难消化大超预期的1月非农报告时，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克的鹰派发言又向投资者泼了盆冷水，隔夜美股三大指数携手下挫，标普一度失守4100点，美元指数创四周以来新高。市场最大的担忧可能在于，重磅经济指标的火热会让美联储翻脸，祭出更多加息，或彻底颠覆年内降息的预期。若噩梦照进现实，这对于当前过于乐观的市场而言将造成灾难性的打击。目前，投资者正在焦急等待美联储主席鲍威尔的最新表态，以窥探1月非农报告对美联储加息路径的影响。官网信息显示，鲍威尔将于美东时间2月7日12:40（北京时间2月8日01:40）参加在华盛顿经济俱乐部举行的一场讨论，这也是2月货币政策新闻发布会以来鲍威尔的首次公开露面。美联储会再次踩下加息“油门”吗？市场忧心忡忡自大跌眼镜的1月非农报告公布以来，市场情绪已经明显遭到打击。利率峰值预期在短短两天时间内从4.9%飙升至5.1%，几乎完全符合美联储去年年底公布的预测中值。自美联储1月加息25基点以来，市场预计今年剩余时间里还有两次加息，但现在市场愈发担心，美联储或祭出更多加息。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，美联储在3月会议上再度加息25基点几乎板上钉钉，更有甚者认为，美联储可能会祭出50基点的加息幅度，5月和6月加息的预期也在快速升温。过于乐观，代价巨大在野村证券看来，市场完全有理由担心美联储再次踩下加息“油门”。野村证券分析师Charlie McElligott在过去几周一直向投资者发出警告，称美国经济正在加速回暖。McElligott表示，市场普遍认为美联储在年内“暂停加息”，下一步进行“宽松”，这是一种灾难性的假设，市场根本没有为美联储恢复加息做好准备，因此面临做出最错误定价的风险。McElligott强调，这并非是说“经济加速回暖=通胀重燃=美联储恢复加息”的前景突然变成了基本假设，但问题在于，这种前景的定价太低了，虽然目前正在被修正，此外，全球经济的加速回暖足以抵消美联储稳步降通胀举措带来的影响。因此美联储需要向更高、更久的利率倾斜，直到看到其青睐的菲利普斯曲线（表明失业与通货膨胀存在一种交替关系的曲线）对劳动力市场产生一些影响的证据。我们所有人都认为，与前一年相比，通胀率不可避免地下降，但这些数据相对滞后，美国和全球整体经济活动再次加速升温......这就是为什么人们突然意识到美联储面临再次落后（于通胀曲线）的风险。经济升温趋势愈加明显，鲍威尔明天是否会“鹰气满满”？McElligott认为，鲍威尔几乎不会改变他对通胀趋势、金融状况指数(FCI)放松的看法，理由是鲍威尔要维护美联储在稳定通胀方面的公信力。我是第一个在激烈的“美联储信誉”辩论中认输投降的人.....但是说实话，他在这么短的时间内又释放出令人震惊的消息，这对我来说很难接受。在上周召开的货币政策新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔首度提出“反通胀进程已经开始”（the disinflationary process has begun），这一略带鸽味的说辞让市场又惊又喜。反通胀（disinflation），指通胀速度开始下降，但此时经济仍处于通胀状态。然而，重磅指标剑指更严峻的通胀风险，可能会让鲍威尔释放出更为微妙的信号。McElligott表示：单与去年相比，通胀看起来正在下行，但现如今，美国经济在美联储大力干预的情况下重新加速增长，这让所有人都感到惊讶，尤其是世界上有如此多的国家以“衰退厄运者”的姿态进入新的一年。因此，我预计未来几天，鲍威尔和美联储其他发言人会提到很多“依赖数据”的问题，而不是像上周三那样13次提到“反通胀”。McElligott警告称，如果鲍威尔本次讲话不够小心周到，他真得可能会“自砸饭碗”。如果他重申散发着鸽味的“反通胀”观点，市场将会迎来狂欢，但由于最近FCI下滑可能导致需求驱动的通胀，下周二公布的1月CPI数据或许会保持坚挺。分析师预计，美国1月CPI同比增速将从前月的6.5%小幅下降至6.2%，核心CPI同比增速将从5.7%降至5.5%。展望未来，美国通胀下降的速度很可能让市场大失所望。东吴证券陶川团队警告称，随着中国经济强劲复苏、欧洲经济率先软着陆反弹，意味着美元指数继续走弱，加上大宗商品价格上涨，美国将面临输入性通胀的压力，这会进一步加剧美联储调控通胀的难度，转向决策会更加谨慎。该机构认为，在不考虑美元贬值直接影响的情况下，油价若在中、欧需求的支撑下回到100美元/桶上方（这个可能性很大），美国通胀在2023年很难回到3%下方。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9955771468,"gmtCreate":1675811159555,"gmtModify":1675811164259,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4092032122452460","idStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955771468","repostId":1123781047,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9955769797,"gmtCreate":1675771406220,"gmtModify":1675771410740,"author":{"id":"3568692149762667","authorId":"3568692149762667","name":"Shian","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f213e92cede90d30424f98329f2948b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568692149762667","idStr":"3568692149762667"},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955769797","repostId":1123781047,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9955769800,"gmtCreate":1675771029000,"gmtModify":1675771032457,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4092032122452460","idStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955769800","repostId":1123781047,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9955769983,"gmtCreate":1675770610244,"gmtModify":1675770614313,"author":{"id":"3582681376084756","authorId":"3582681376084756","name":"招财大佬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcde9460cf8656570745fc96642fc92d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582681376084756","idStr":"3582681376084756"},"htmlText":"唉😮‍💨","listText":"唉😮‍💨","text":"唉😮‍💨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955769983","repostId":1123781047,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":59,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}