On January 26, A-shares exhibited divergent trends in the morning session, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weakly. The market saw over 3,800 stocks decline. By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.74%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.86%. Two key variables representing risk appetite simultaneously impacted the market. Firstly, against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks and a falling US dollar index, gold and silver futures and spot prices surged significantly, redirecting capital flows. Secondly, previously popular stocks collectively plunged, with a satellite-themed ETF tumbling nearly 5%, indicating a notable cooling of speculative fervor. The market appears to be shifting towards a defensive posture. On the market front, the major financial sector acted as a market stabilizer, with brokers and insurance companies leading the gains. The resources theme remained strong, particularly the non-ferrous metals and precious metals concepts, which saw continuous explosive growth; stocks like Sichuan Gold among others hit the daily limit-up. The oil and gas sector also strengthened, with CNOOC reaching a new all-time high. The chemical sector experienced a sudden surge, with Hongbaoli Group soaring straight to a limit-up. On the downside, the baijiu (white spirits) sector declined, with Yanghe Brewery hitting its lowest point in over eight years. Commercial aerospace, military-industrial, semiconductor chips, and major consumer sectors were among the top decliners.
Looking ahead, CITIC Securities believes that as market confidence continues to recover, investors could consider increasing allocations to non-bank financials and some domestic-demand or high-growth sectors on market dips. The precious metals concept continued its explosive trend. The non-ferrous and precious metals concepts maintained their strength, with Yuguang Gold & Lead securing its second consecutive daily limit-up. Stocks like Hunan Gold, Shengda Resources, and Hengbang Shares also hit the limit-up. Commentary: On the news front, spot gold broke through $5,000 per ounce for the first time. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract hit the upside limit, reaching 28,226 yuan per kilogram, currently up 17.0%. Huaxi Securities suggests that, based on historical patterns, the gold price increase in 2026 might fall within a range of 10% to 35%. Influenced by expectations of Fed rate cuts, instability in US dollar credibility, the US midterm elections, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold prices are expected to rise further. The oil and gas sector strengthened amidst fluctuations. CNOOC rose over 6%, reaching a new historical high. Heshun Petroleum hit the daily limit-up, while PetroChina and Sinopec followed with gains. Commentary: News-wise, due to a winter storm affecting large parts of the United States, US natural gas prices surged significantly on January 25, with futures prices breaking through the $6 per million British thermal units mark for the first time since 2022. Donghai Securities points out that crude oil prices remain a key variable for cycle judgment. Looking ahead to 2026, if oil prices stabilize and then experience moderate increases within a global recovery cycle, it would benefit further profit recovery in the refining and chemical sectors. The baijiu sector declined amidst fluctuations. Yanghe Brewery fell over 8%, hitting its lowest level since November 2017. Shuijingfang, Gujing Distillery, Jiushiwang, and Jinhuijiu followed the downward trend. Commentary: On the news front, Yanghe Brewery released its 2025 performance forecast, estimating a net profit decline of 62.18% to 68.30% compared to the previous year. Based on this calculation, the company is expected to report a loss of 1.451 billion to 1.859 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025. Huachuang Securities believes the baijiu industry has fully entered a phase of "squeeze-type growth." The future investment logic will no longer be broad-based gains but will instead focus on certainty. CSC Financial: Continue adhering to the dual main themes of "Technology + Resources". CSC Financial believes that the economic characteristic of "production stronger than demand, external demand better than internal demand" will persist throughout the year, while monetary policy maintains an accommodative stance, with interbank rates falling to nearly their lowest levels since 2020. In an environment of weak macroeconomics and ample liquidity, growth investing tends to outperform. Overall, despite recent proactive measures to cool the market's pace, the overarching tone remains positive. It is advised to prioritize growth trends and continue adhering to the dual main themes of "Technology + Resources." On the technology front, AI semiconductors/new energy remain the core growth areas, alongside continuous catalysts in hot spots like AI applications/space photovoltaics/innovative drugs. For resources, the non-ferrous metals sector has reported relatively good preliminary earnings, warranting attention to the subsequent transmission and diffusion of growth trends to the chemical and machinery sectors. Key industries to focus on include: semiconductors, AI, new energy, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, media, computers, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. CITIC Securities: Market confidence is in a process of continuous recovery. CITIC Securities believes that during this process of recovering market confidence, sectors that are at relatively low levels, can present a logical investment case, and are not heavily weighted in broad market indices are likely to recover. Within this, the optimal timing for increasing allocations to the consumer chain is from now until around the Two Sessions, primarily driven by expectation trading. The property chain might also see significant recovery during this period, with building materials sectors less sensitive to new domestic starts already showing signs of rebound. Under the basic premise of "re-pricing resources + traditional manufacturing weightings," a core portfolio built around chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment remains a defensive choice against anxiety amidst the contradiction between "investors' desire for gains" and regulatory counter-cyclical adjustments. On this basis, investors can consider increasing allocations to non-bank financials (securities, insurance) on dips, while also enhancing returns through some domestic-demand sectors (e.g., duty-free, aviation, building materials) or high-growth sectors (e.g., semiconductor equipment, materials). Oriental Securities: The market is gradually regaining upward momentum. Oriental Securities believes that market panic is gradually dissipating, and the broader market is slowly regaining its upward trend. In summary, the current market is experiencing a structural rally driven by both "policy catalysts and industrial trends." Areas such as commercial aerospace, AI computing power, and memory chips possess dual support from both policy and industry, with the logic of import substitution strengthening, making them worthy of medium to long-term tracking value.
