To The Moon

On Wednesday, SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares fell 8% to close at $115.26, as the market braces for the largest post-IPO lockup expiry in history. Approximately 911.5 million insider-held shares of SpaceX are set to be released from trading restrictions on Thursday, August 6, representing a staggering $116 billion in market value—a scale unprecedented in U.S. equity history.

According to S3 Partners data, roughly 30% of the currently tradable shares are sold short, with short sellers holding paper profits of about $7 billion. The short interest in SpaceX has even surpassed the dollar value of short positions in Tesla. Furthermore, the phased structure of the lockup expiry means that Thursday is not the final hurdle—by early December, the total number of tradable SpaceX shares will surge from the current 639 million to 5.33 billion, representing a more than sevenfold increase from current levels.

SpaceX has also released its first quarterly earnings report since going public. For the second quarter of 2026, the company reported revenue of $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year and exceeding market expectations of approximately $6.9 billion. Net loss narrowed significantly to $541 million, compared to a loss of $1.008 billion in the same period last year. However, capital expenditure for AI-related businesses in the second quarter reached about $15.8 billion, above market forecasts, and the company expects capex for the third and fourth quarters to be similar to the second quarter, raising concerns over the path to profitability.