Wall Street On Debt-Cap Alert as Biden, McCarthy Brace for Showdown

Bloomberg2023-05-09

Investors are watching Washington with a keen eye as President Joe Biden prepares to host House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday in a bid to resolve...

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Big Little
·2023-05-10
OK thanks
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Controverse
·2023-05-09
Living from paycheck to paycheck. Living pure on credit. Pay off your old credit debt with another creditcard with a much higher balance sheet and so on and so on! That makes absolutely no sence! Sooner or later you pay the bill! The Debt of the US Government 341Trillion is so high that They can't effort themselves starting paying back, why not? The Financial System would collapse and the USA economy would faling over the cliff. More deficit, building up as much deficit as the System can Carry on his back. There's no way back as long as The System collapsesput herself. Biden Will also put the financial creditcrunch forwards, put it on the plate of the next president candidate. Discipline is the solution. Discipline.
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- enforcer:
  ok
  2023-05-09
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- BarbaraWillard:
  The crisis from the US government may be the biggest negative factor.
  2023-05-09
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- MorganHope:
  What is the Discipline we mentioned here?
  2023-05-09
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The cost of insuring against a US default through derivatives has also rocketed higher in recent weeks.But the broader market impact of debt-cap concerns has remained relatively muted, with stock and bond investors having been more focused on recession risks, Federal Reserve policy and concerns about the health of America’s regional banks.Yellen said Sunday there are “simply no good options” for solving the debt-limit stalemate in Washington other than Congress lifting the cap. She also cautioned that invoking the 14th Amendment — which states that the validity of US debt shall not be questioned and is seen by some as invalidating the concept of the debt ceiling — would provoke a constitutional crisis.Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell warned he won’t come to Biden’s rescue by breaking the partisan deadlock, saying there’s no “ secret plan” and the White House has to figure it out with Speaker McCarthy.Meanwhile, former Biden administration economic adviser Daleep Singh  said a financial-market shock is what’s required to motivate politicians to break the current impasse on the debt limit. From Washington to Wall Street, here’s what to watch to gauge how worried observers should be and when they should be concerned.X-Date PredictionsUnderpinning the various moves in debt markets are differing estimates about when the government might exhaust its options to fund itself — commonly referred to as the X-date. While the administration itself has provided guidance that it might fall short as soon as June,   prognosticators across Wall Street have also been busy running the numbers based on government cash flows and expectations around tax and spending. Some strategists have pulled forward their estimates to align more with forecasts out of Washington. Others, meanwhile, are staying with their late-summer estimate, although recent cash flows from the Treasury suggest that it’s even more uncertain whether it will make it until June 15, a key tax payment day. The Bills Curve Investors have historically demanded higher yields on securities that are due to be repaid shortly after the US is seen as running out of borrowing capacity. That puts a lot of focus on the yield curve for bills — the shortest-dated Treasury securities --and potential dislocations that show up. Noticeable upward distortions in particular parts of the curve tend to suggest increased concern among investors that that’s the time Uncle Sam might be at risk of default and right now that’s most prominent around early June. The government on Monday sold $57 billion of three-month securities — that are scheduled to mature on Aug. 10 — at 5.14%. That’s the highest auction yield for that particular benchmark bill since January 2001.Those kind of yields are, of course, tempting for investors who reckon such a premium is unwarranted because the debt-cap impasse will be resolved. Bill Gross, the former chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., is one individual in that camp, recommending that investors buy short-term T-bills in anticipation of an eventual resolution.The Cash BalanceThe US government’s ability to pay its debts and meet its spending obligations ultimately comes down to whether it has the cash to do it, so the amount sitting in its checking account is crucial. That figure ebbs and flows from day to day depending on spending, tax receipts, debt repayments and the proceeds of new borrowing. And if it gets too close to zero for the Treasury department’s comfort that could be a problem.CongressUltimately, some of the most important numbers in this whole saga relate to the amount of votes that can be secured in Washington to get a deal done. That will be driven, in large part, by the willingness of key government leaders to hammer out an agreement. Following is a glance at just how small the window might be for them to bridge the gap and come to an agreement.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9947776555,"gmtCreate":1683674226077,"gmtModify":1683674229617,"author":{"id":"4098495958461490","authorId":"4098495958461490","name":"Big Little","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6764a3ffbf6ab45f7407477fad0cd075","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4098495958461490","authorIdStr":"4098495958461490"},"htmlText":"OK thanks&nbsp;","listText":"OK thanks&nbsp;","text":"OK thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947776555","repostId":1125002179,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9947763947,"gmtCreate":1683618013290,"gmtModify":1683618020186,"author":{"id":"4123989491963162","authorId":"4123989491963162","name":"Controverse","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4123989491963162","authorIdStr":"4123989491963162"},"htmlText":"Living from&nbsp;paycheck to paycheck. Living pure on&nbsp;credit. Pay off your old&nbsp;credit debt&nbsp;with another&nbsp;creditcard with a much higher&nbsp;balance sheet and so on&nbsp;and so on! That makes absolutely&nbsp;no sence! Sooner or&nbsp;later you pay the bill! The Debt of the US Government 341Trillion is so high that They&nbsp;can't effort themselves starting paying&nbsp;back, why not? The Financial System would&nbsp;collapse and the USA economy would faling over the cliff. More deficit, building up as much&nbsp;deficit as the System can Carry on his&nbsp;back. There's no way&nbsp;back as long as The System collapsesput herself. Biden Will also put the financial creditcrunch forwards, put it on the plate of the next president candidate. Discipline is the solution. Discipline.","listText":"Living from&nbsp;paycheck to paycheck. Living pure on&nbsp;credit. Pay off your old&nbsp;credit debt&nbsp;with another&nbsp;creditcard with a much higher&nbsp;balance sheet and so on&nbsp;and so on! That makes absolutely&nbsp;no sence! Sooner or&nbsp;later you pay the bill! The Debt of the US Government 341Trillion is so high that They&nbsp;can't effort themselves starting paying&nbsp;back, why not? The Financial System would&nbsp;collapse and the USA economy would faling over the cliff. More deficit, building up as much&nbsp;deficit as the System can Carry on his&nbsp;back. There's no way&nbsp;back as long as The System collapsesput herself. Biden Will also put the financial creditcrunch forwards, put it on the plate of the next president candidate. Discipline is the solution. Discipline.","text":"Living from paycheck to paycheck. Living pure on credit. Pay off your old credit debt with another creditcard with a much higher balance sheet and so on and so on! That makes absolutely no sence! Sooner or later you pay the bill! The Debt of the US Government 341Trillion is so high that They can't effort themselves starting paying back, why not? The Financial System would collapse and the USA economy would faling over the cliff. More deficit, building up as much deficit as the System can Carry on his back. There's no way back as long as The System collapsesput herself. Biden Will also put the financial creditcrunch forwards, put it on the plate of the next president candidate. Discipline is the solution. Discipline.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":161,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947763947","repostId":1125002179,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":106352256,"gmtCreate":1683629225652,"gmtModify":1683629229220,"authorId":4111024885793192,"author":{"id":4111024885793192,"idStr":"4111024885793192","authorId":4111024885793192,"name":"enforcer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.10.29","exceedPercentage":"80.02%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9947763947,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":106352124,"gmtCreate":1683623127327,"gmtModify":1683624589687,"authorId":9000000000000696,"author":{"id":9000000000000696,"idStr":"9000000000000696","authorId":9000000000000696,"name":"BarbaraWillard","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af002b44e35ebf40cafbbaf194de9c06","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9947763947,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>The crisis from the US government may be the biggest negative factor.</p>","text":"<p>The crisis from the US government may be the biggest negative factor.</p>","html":"<p>The crisis from the US government may be the biggest negative factor.</p>"},{"id":106352126,"gmtCreate":1683623155616,"gmtModify":1683623161878,"authorId":9000000000000470,"author":{"id":9000000000000470,"idStr":"9000000000000470","authorId":9000000000000470,"name":"MorganHope","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17af8d14081700b793911bb75de6b67","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9947763947,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>What is the Discipline we mentioned here?</p>","text":"<p>What is the Discipline we mentioned here?</p>","html":"<p>What is the Discipline we mentioned here?</p>"},{"id":106352122,"gmtCreate":1683623079683,"gmtModify":1683623085906,"authorId":9000000000000487,"author":{"id":9000000000000487,"idStr":"9000000000000487","authorId":9000000000000487,"name":"MaudNelly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0fafb6a0868fdff5a6626301b88f7c","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9947763947,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>Yes it would be the time we need to save more money.</p>","text":"<p>Yes it would be the time we need to save more money.</p>","html":"<p>Yes it would be the time we need to save more money.</p>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}